scholarly journals Raised inflammatory markers as a predictor of one-year mortality: a cohort study in primary care in the UK using electronic health record data

BMJ Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. e036027
Author(s):  
Jessica Watson ◽  
Penny Whiting ◽  
Chris Salisbury ◽  
Jonathan Banks ◽  
Willie Hamilton

ObjectivesIdentification of patients at increased mortality risk is important in the context of increasing multimorbidity and an ageing population, to help facilitate the planning and delivery of services. The aim of this study was to examine 1-year all-cause mortality in a cohort of primary care patients in whom inflammatory markers including C reactive protein (CRP), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) and plasma viscosity (PV), had been tested.DesignObservational cohort study using general practitioner Electronic Health Records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, with linkage to Office for National Statistics (ONS) Death Registry.SettingUK Primary Care.Participants159 325 patients with inflammatory marker tests done in 2014 and 39 928 age, sex and practice-matched controls without inflammatory marker testing. ONS Death registry data were available for 109 966 participants.Primary and secondary outcome measuresOne-year mortality in those with raised inflammatory markers compared with normal inflammatory markers and untested controls. Subanalyses stratified 1-year mortality by age group, gender and cause of death.ResultsPatients with a raised inflammatory marker (n=47 797) had an overall 1-year all-cause mortality of 6.89%, compared with 1.41% in those with normal inflammatory markers (p<0.001) and 1.62% in untested controls. A raised CRP is associated with the highest mortality rate at 8.76% compared with 4.99% for ESR and 4.66% for PV. One-year mortality is higher in men with a raised inflammatory marker compared with women (9.78% vs 5.29%). The C-statistic of a simple mortality prediction model containing age, sex and CRP test result is 0.89.ConclusionsInflammatory markers are a strong predictor of all-cause mortality in primary care, with a C-statistic comparable to several previously developed frailty indices. Future research should consider the added value of CRP testing, in combination with other risk factors, to improve prediction of mortality in primary care. Evidence- based interventions for frailty are needed alongside predictive tools.

2013 ◽  
Vol 150 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Köhler ◽  
Frans Verhey ◽  
Siegfried Weyerer ◽  
Birgitt Wiese ◽  
Kathrin Heser ◽  
...  

BMJ Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. e039239
Author(s):  
Ying Yue Huang ◽  
Chao Qiang Jiang ◽  
Lin Xu ◽  
Wei Sen Zhang ◽  
Feng Zhu ◽  
...  

ObjectiveTo examine the associations of change in body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) over an average of 4 years with subsequent mortality risk in middle-aged to older Chinese.DesignProspective cohort study based on the Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study.SettingCommunity-based sample.Participants17 773 participants (12 956 women and 4817 men) aged 50+ years.Primary and secondary outcome measuresPrimary outcome measure was all-cause mortality. Secondary outcome measures were cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer mortality. Causes of death were obtained via record linkage, and coded according to the International Classification of Diseases (tenth revision).Results1424 deaths (53.4% women) occurred in the 17 773 participants (mean age 61.2, SD 6.8 years) during an average follow-up of 7.8 (SD=1.5) years, and 97.7% of participants did not have an intention of weight loss . Compared with participants with stable BMI, participants with BMI loss (>5%), but not gain, had a higher risk of all-cause mortality (HR=1.49, 95% CI 1.31 to 1.71), which was greatest in those who were underweight (HR=2.45, 95% CI 1.31 to 4.59). Similar patterns were found for WC. In contrast, for participants with a BMI of ≥27.5 kg/m2, BMI gain, versus stable BMI, was associated with 89% higher risk of all-cause mortality (HR=1.89, 95% CI 1.25 to 2.88), 72% higher risk of CVD mortality (HR=1.72, 95% CI 0.80 to 3.72) and 2.27-fold risk of cancer mortality (HR=2.27, 95% CI 1.26 to 4.10).ConclusionIn older people, unintentional BMI/WC loss, especially in those who were underweight was associated with higher mortality risk. However, BMI gain in those with obesity showed excess risks of all-cause and cancer mortality, but not CVD mortality. Frequent monitoring of changes in body size can be used as an early warning for timely clinical investigations and interventions and is important to inform appropriate health management in older Chinese.


2015 ◽  
Vol 38 (3) ◽  
pp. 552-559 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alice S. Forster ◽  
Caroline Burgess ◽  
Hiten Dodhia ◽  
Frances Fuller ◽  
Jane Miller ◽  
...  

2015 ◽  
Vol 100 (3) ◽  
pp. 214-219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cornelia H M van Jaarsveld ◽  
Martin C Gulliford

ObjectiveThis study aimed to use primary care electronic health records to evaluate the prevalence of overweight and obesity in 2–15-year-old children in England and compare trends over the last two decades.DesignCohort study of primary care electronic health records.Setting375 general practices in England that contribute to the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink.PatientsIndividual participants were sampled if they were aged between 2 and 15 years during the period 1994–2013 and had one or more records of body mass index (BMI).Main outcome measurePrevalence of overweight (including obesity) was defined as a BMI equal to or greater than the 85th centile of the 1990 UK reference population.ResultsData were analysed for 370 544 children with 507 483 BMI records. From 1994 to 2003, the odds of overweight and obesity increased by 8.1% per year (95% CI 7.2% to 8.9%) compared with 0.4% (−0.2% to 1.1%) from 2004 to 2013. Trends were similar for boys and girls, but differed by age groups, with prevalence stabilising in 2004 to 2013 in the younger (2–10 year) but not older (11–15 year) age group, where rates continued to increase.ConclusionsPrimary care electronic health records in England may provide a valuable resource for monitoring obesity trends. More than a third of UK children are overweight or obese, but the prevalence of overweight and obesity may have stabilised between 2004 and 2013.


2014 ◽  
Vol 30 (S1) ◽  
pp. 31-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
William M. Tierney ◽  
Sheri A. Alpert ◽  
Amy Byrket ◽  
Kelly Caine ◽  
Jeremy C. Leventhal ◽  
...  

2016 ◽  
Vol 26 (8) ◽  
pp. 1900-1905 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helen P. Booth ◽  
◽  
Omar Khan ◽  
Alison Fildes ◽  
A. Toby Prevost ◽  
...  

BMJ Open ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (9) ◽  
pp. e017035 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chung-Kuan Wu ◽  
Chia-Lin Wu ◽  
Chia-Hsun Lin ◽  
Jyh-Gang Leu ◽  
Chew-Teng Kor ◽  
...  

ObjectivesTo investigate the impact of vascular access flow (Qa) on vascular and all-cause mortality in chronic haemodialysis (HD) patients.DesignObservational cohort study.SettingSingle centre.ParticipantsAdult chronic HD patients at the HD unit of Shin Kong Wu Ho-Su Memorial Hospital between 1 January 2003 and 31 December 2003 were recruited. Patients were excluded if they had arteriovenous fistula or arteriovenous graft failure within 3 months before the date of Qa measurement, were aged <18 years and had Qa levels of ≥2000mL/min. A total of 378 adult chronic HD patients were eventually enrolled for the study.InterventionsThe selected patients were evaluated with Qa and cardiac index (CI). They were divided into four groups according to three Qa cut-off points (500, 1000 and 1500 mL/min).Primary and secondary outcome measuresShort-term and long-term vascular (cardiovascular or cerebrovascular) and all-cause mortality.ResultsQa was positively correlated with CI (r=0.48, p<0.001). A Qa level of <1000 mL/min was independently associated with 1-year all-cause mortality (adjusted OR, 6.04; 95% CI 1.64 to 22.16; p=0.007). Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that the cumulative incidence rates of all-cause and vascular mortality were significantly higher in the patients with a Qa level of <1000 mL/min (log-rank test; all p<0.01). Furthermore, a Qa level of <1000 mL/min was independently associated with long-term all-cause mortality (adjusted HR, 1.62; 95% CI 1.11 to 2.37; p=0.013); however, the risk of vascular mortality did not significantly increase after adjustment for confounders.ConclusionsQa is moderately correlated with cardiac function, and a Qa level of <1000 mL/min is an independent risk factor for both short-term and long-term all-cause mortality in chronic HD patients.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Njabulo Ncube ◽  
Elena Kulinskaya ◽  
Nicholas Steel ◽  
Dmitry Pchejetski

Objective To estimate long-term hazards of all-cause mortality following a diagnosis of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) using electronic primary care data. Methodology Retrospective matched cohort study using electronic health records from THIN primary care database. The study included individuals born between 1930 and 1960, diagnosed with T2DM between 2000 and 2016 and aged 50-74 years and excluded those with pre-existing stroke, cancer, cognitive impairment, lower limb amputation or chronic kidney disease (CKD) stages 3 to 5. T2DM individuals were matched at diagnosis to at most 3 controls by age, gender and general practice (GP) and followed up to 1 January 2017. Time-varying hazards of all-cause mortality were then estimated using Gompertz-double-Cox model with frailty on GP, adjusting for medical history, socio-demographic and lifestyle factors. Results A total of 221 182 (57.6% Males, 30.8% T2DM) individuals were selected for the study of whom 29 618 (13.4%) died during follow-up. The adjusted mortality hazard of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) was estimated to be 1.21[1.12-1.3] and 1.52[1.44-1.6] among individuals diagnosed at 50-59 years and 60-74 years, respectively, compared to controls. Deprivation, obesity, smoking and comorbidities affected survival of cases and controls equally. Compared to the 1930-39 birth cohort, all-cause mortality hazards were reduced in the 1940-49 cohort, but increased at older ages in the 1950-60 birth cohort for both cases and controls. Conclusion T2DM is associated with raised all-cause mortality hazards which increase with age of diagnosis. These hazards associated with age at diagnosis are constant across all birth cohorts demonstrating a lack of progress over time in reducing the relative risks of all-cause mortality associated with T2DM. A further study that includes people born after 1960 is needed to fully understand the emerging higher mortality hazards among the younger birth cohorts.


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