scholarly journals The effect of excise tax increases on cigarette prices in South Africa

2017 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-71 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel J Linegar ◽  
Corne van Walbeek
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Tobacco Consumption ◽  
Retail Price ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Cigarette Price ◽  
Excise Tax ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Cigarette Prices

IntroductionThe effectiveness of excise tax increases as a tool for reducing tobacco consumption depends largely on how the tax increases impact the retail price. We estimate this relationship in South Africa for 2001–2015.DataStatistics South Africa provided disaggregated cigarette price data, used in the calculation of the Consumers’ Price Index. Data on the excise tax per cigarette were obtained from Budget Reviews prepared by the National Treasury of South Africa.MethodsRegression equations were estimated for each month. The month-on-month change in cigarette prices in February through April was regressed against March’s excise tax change to estimate the pass-through coefficient. For the other 9 months, the month-on-month change in cigarette price was regressed against monthly dummy variables to determine the size of the non-tax-related price increase in each of these months. The analysis was performed in both nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) terms.FindingsExpressed in real terms, the excise tax was undershifted. A R1.00 (one rand) increase in the excise tax is associated with an increase in the retail price of cigarettes of R0.90 in the pre-2010 period, and R0.49 in the post-2010 period. In the pre-2010 period, the tobacco industry increased the retail price of cigarettes in July/August, independent of the excise tax increase. The discretionary July/August price increases largely disappeared after 2010, primarily because the market became more competitive.ConclusionThe degree of excise tax pass-through, and the magnitude of discretionary increases in cigarette prices, is significantly determined by the competitive environment in the cigarette market.

Observed retail price of Australia’s market-leading cigarette brand before and up to 3 years after the implementation of plain packaging

2018 ◽  
Vol 28 (e2) ◽  
pp. e86-e91 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sam Egger ◽  
Suzan Burton ◽  
Rebecca Ireland ◽  
Scott C Walsberger
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Retail Price ◽  
Plain Packaging ◽  
Cigarette Brand ◽  
Retail Outlets ◽  
Change In Mean ◽  
Generalised Estimating Equations ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Cigarette Prices

ObjectiveDespite claims by tobacco companies that plain packaging would lead to lower cigarette prices, recommended and observed real cigarette prices in Australia rose in the 9–11 months after plain packaging was introduced. However, little is known about trends in prices longer term. In this report, we assess whether inflation (Consumer Price Index; CPI) and tax adjusted (‘CPI-tax-adjusted’) prices of the market-leading Australian cigarette brand changed in the 3-year period after plain packaging, and whether price changes were associated with retailer characteristics.MethodCigarette prices were ascertained from a panel of tobacco retailers at three time points: (1) in November 2012 (n=857) (before full implementation of plain packaging, compulsory in retail outlets from December 2012), (2) between October 2014 and February 2015 (n=789) and (3) between November 2015 and March 2016 (n=579). Generalised estimating equations were used to estimate percentage change in mean CPI/tax-adjusted cigarette prices over time.ResultsCPI/tax-adjusted adjusted mean stick prices rose by 13.7% (95% CI 13.0 to 16.0) and 15.2% (95% CI 14.3 to 16.0) at 2.1 and 3.1 years after plain packaging was introduced, respectively. Increases in mean CPI/tax-adjusted stick prices varied by outlet type (p<0.001), socioeconomic status (p=0.013) and remoteness of retailer’s area (p=0.028) and whether twin packs were sold (p=0.009).ConclusionsContrary to tobacco company predictions of a fall in prices, the price of the market-leading Australian cigarette brand increased significantly in the 3 years after plain packaging was introduced, and these increases were above the combined effects of inflation and increases in excise/customs duty.

scholarly journals Measuring the effects of the new ECOWAS and WAEMU tobacco excise tax directives

2020 ◽  
pp. tobaccocontrol-2020-055843
Author(s):  
Jean Tesche ◽  
Corne Van Walbeek
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Models ◽  
West African ◽  
Retail Price ◽  
Ad Valorem Tax ◽  
Excise Tax ◽  
Tobacco Tax ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Specific Tax ◽  
Ad Valorem ◽  
Cigarette Prices

BackgroundIn December 2017, the 15-member ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) and the 8-member WAEMU (West African Economic and Monetary Union, a subset of ECOWAS) passed new Tobacco Tax Directives. Both Directives increased the minimum ad valorem excise tax rate to 50%. In addition the ECOWAS Directive introduced a minimum specific tax (US$ 0.02/stick), but the WAEMU Directive did not. This paper examines the likely effects of these new Directives on cigarette prices, sales volumes and revenues.MethodTax simulation models using comparable data were constructed for each of the 15 countries to estimate the effects of the ECOWAS and WAEMU Directives.ResultsIf the 15 ECOWAS members implement the ECOWAS Directive it would substantially increase the retail price of cigarettes (unweighted average 51%, range: 12% to 108%), decrease sales volumes (22%, range: −8% to −39%) and increase tax revenue (373%, range: 10% to 1243%). The impact of the WAEMU Directive on WAEMU countries’ cigarette prices (unweighted average +2%), sales volumes (−1%) and revenue (+17%) is likely to be minimal.ConclusionsThe 2017 ECOWAS Directive, which adds a specific excise tax per pack, along with an increase in the ad valorem tax, substantially improves its members’ cigarette tax structure. The specific tax overcomes the weakness of the ad valorem excise tax, since it does not depend on import or ex-factory values, which comprise only a small part of the retail price in ECOWAS countries. We recommend that WAEMU countries adopt the ECOWAS Directive, rather than the WAEMU Directive.

scholarly journals The impact of cigarette prices on smoking participation and tobacco expenditure in Vietnam

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. e0260415
Author(s):  
Cuong Viet Nguyen ◽  
Thu Thi Le ◽  
Nguyen Hanh Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Cigarette Smoking ◽  
Smoking Prevalence ◽  
Tobacco Consumption ◽  
Cigarette Price ◽  
Effective Measure ◽  
The Real ◽  
Percent Increase ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Cigarette Prices

Vietnam is one of countries with the highest number of smokers in the world and the high smoking prevalence among men in the region. Although the real cigarette prices increased by around 4% during the 2010–2015 period, the prevalence of daily cigarette smoking among men decreased slightly from 31.3% to 30.7% during this period. This raises the question of whether cigarette consumption is sensitive to price. In this study, we estimated the effect of cigarette prices on smoking participation and tobacco expenditure in Vietnam. We found that a one-percent increase in the real cigarette price reduced the probability of cigarette smoking among males by 0.08 percentage points (95% CI from -0.06 to -0.10), equivalent to the price elasticity of the smoking prevalence at -0.26 (95% CI from -0.16% to -0.33%). Using this estimate, we predict that if the cigarette price is increased by 10%, the daily cigarette smoking prevalence among men would decrease from 30.7% to 29.9% and the number of male smokers would decline by around 270 thousand. Higher cigarette prices also reduced per capita tobacco expenditure of households. A one-percent increase in the cigarette price decreased per capita expenditure on tobacco consumption expenditure of households by 0.43 percent (the 95% CI from -0.029 to 0.822). This finding suggests that raising tobacco taxes and prices can be an effective measure to reduce tobacco use.

scholarly journals Analysis of the illicit tobacco market in Georgia in response to fiscal and non-fiscal tobacco control measures

2021 ◽  
pp. tobaccocontrol-2020-056404
Author(s):  
Megan Little ◽  
Hana Ross ◽  
George Bakhturidze ◽  
Iago Kachkachishvili
Keyword(s):  
Tobacco Control ◽  
Household Survey ◽  
Tobacco Consumption ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Cigarette Consumption ◽  
Control Law ◽  
Excise Tax ◽  
Cigarette Taxes ◽  
Illicit Trade ◽  
Cigarette Pack

BackgroundGeorgian illicit cigarette consumption was 1.5% in 2017. In 2018, a new tobacco control law took effect followed by a substantial cigarette excise tax increase in 2019. Research shows these policies reduce tobacco consumption, but the tobacco industry argues they increase illicit trade. There is limited evidence on this, particularly from developing countries.MethodsA panel household survey in Georgia obtained data over three waves: 2017 baseline, 2018 after the tobacco control law took effect and 2019 after taxes increased. A sample of 1578 smokers (and quitters in later waves) from five regions reported their tobacco use and were asked to present a cigarette pack in their possession. These were examined for tax stamps and health warnings to establish legality.FindingsThere was no evidence of an increase in illicit cigarette consumption in Tbilisi, Kutaisi, Akhaltsikhe or Gori in any wave. In Zugdidi, near the Russian-occupied Abkhazia, illicit cigarette consumption was increasing even prior to the tax increase, reaching 30.9% by wave 3. A country-wide shift occurred from manufactured cigarettes to roll-your-own tobacco (whose tax remained unchanged) between waves 2 and 3.ConclusionNo evidence of a country-wide increase in illicit cigarette trade was found after non-fiscal tobacco measures took effect and cigarette taxes increased. Relatively high illicit cigarette consumption in Zugdidi highlights the role of disputed territories and border administration in illicit cigarette supply. Substitution towards roll-your-own tobacco after manufactured cigarette taxes increased demonstrates the importance of equalising taxes on tobacco products to maximise public health benefits.

scholarly journals Motivations for Smoking Cessation and the Impact of Regulatory Tax Increases Amongst Fathers within the Pacific Islands Families Study

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 32-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
El-Shadan Tautolo ◽  
Leon Iusitini ◽  
Steve Taylor ◽  
Janis Paterson
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Smoking Prevalence ◽  
Pacific Islands ◽  
Tobacco Consumption ◽  
Excise Tax ◽  
Quit Smoking ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Quitting Smoking ◽  
High Smoking Prevalence ◽  
The Impact

Aims: To examine the prevalence of smoking, motivations for cessation, and impact of tobacco excise tax increases amongst a cohort of Pacific fathers at 11 years after the birth of their child.Methods: Within the context of broader interviews, 723 Pacific fathers participating in the Pacific Islands Families (PIF) Study were surveyed about their smoking at the 11-year measurement point. Prevalence of smoking was calculated, alongside motivations to quit, and the impact of increases to the excise tax on tobacco.Results: Smoking prevalence amongst Pacific fathers remains high (38%) at 11 years postpartum, although 81% of smokers disclosed interest in quitting smoking. The strongest motivation to quit smoking was their ‘own health’ (n = 185, 82%), followed by ‘the cost’ (n = 148, 66%), and the impact on ‘their child's health’ (n = 113, 50%). Among smokers, 12% (n = 31) had never attempted to quit, whereas 63% (n = 159) had made multiple attempts. Approximately 70% (n = 191) of smokers indicated the New Zealand Government-initiated tobacco excise tax increases caused them to reduce their tobacco consumption.Conclusions: High smoking prevalence amongst this cohort raises serious concerns about the risks Pacific families and communities face from smoking. Maintaining a sustained series of tobacco excise tax increases, alongside the utilisation of information on key motivators for Pacific fathers to quit smoking, may prove more effective in supporting Pacific communities to achieve the New Zealand Government's Smokefree 2025 goal.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Pass Through in a Small Open Economy: A case study of West African Monetary Zone

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 275-290
Author(s):  
Rahman olanrewaju Raji
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Import Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Import Prices ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Pass Through

The  study investigated the magnitude of exchange rate pass through to import prices and domestic prices    (consumer price index) in WAMZ economy using quarterly time-series data between 2000 and 2010 with the aids of Vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling technique supported with Johansen co-integration approach cross country analysis comprising of Gambia, Ghana, Nigeria and Sierra-Leone. The study discovered that transmission of exchange rate to import prices is more when compared with consumer price in the zone while the contributions of exchange rate to import price are not less 13 percent at average in entire zone. Consumer price index was explained by exchange rate pass through with an average of 26 percent in the zone where the pass through to consumer price is less than two percent in Ghanaian economy. The Taylor (2000) hypothesis was observed in the study where Ghana and Nigeria are the outlier economies while Nigeria established a positive relationship between interest rate volatility and exchange rate pass through to import prices.

scholarly journals Risk, opportunities and reasons of the household debt changes: The case of an emerging economy

2016 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 476-484
Author(s):  
Sisimogang Tracy Seane ◽  
Gisele Mah ◽  
Paul Saah
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Disposable Income ◽  
Household Debt ◽  
Household Savings ◽  
Income Household ◽  
Household Disposable Income

In the past decades, household debt in both developed and developing countries have been increasing. With an increase in the standard of living, household debt is also bound to increase. This paper examines the cointegration and causal link among household disposable income, household savings, and debt service ratio, lending interest rate, consumer price index and household debt in South Africa. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag and Granger causality techniques was used to analyse data collected from the South African Reserve Bank and Quantec from 1984 to 2014. The results of Autoregressive Distributed Lag test revealed cointegrating relationships between household debt and debt service ratio as well as household debt and lending interest rate. However, there is no long run cointegrating relationship between household disposable income, household savings and consumer price index with household debt. The Granger causality results revealed that household disposable income, household savings, debt service ratio, lending interest rate, consumer price index do Granger cause household debt in South Africa. Policy makers should thus target these variables in order to reduce household debt in South Africa.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices: Evidence from OECD Countries

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harun Bal ◽  
Mehmet Demiral ◽  
Filiz Yetiz
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Domestic Prices ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes ◽  
Exchange Rate Pass Through

There is an immense literature on the effects of exchange rate changes on macroeconomic indicators, specifically on the trade balance, growth, inflation, and overall productivity in open economies. One of the main attempts in the related literature is about ascertaining whether the exchange rate fluctuations alter domestic prices. This possible mechanism is called as the pass-through effect which is getting more important since the argument that exchange rate adjustment is a part of the solution for global rebalancing is empirically well-supported. Starting from this claim, this study purposes to explore whether there is an exchange rate pass-through effect in 19 high-income OECD countries over the period 1990-2015. To this end, using a panel data set of consumer price index, producer price index proxied by wholesale price index, the nominal effective exchange rates, and industrial production presented by the value-added share of industry sectors in gross domestic product, structural vector autoregressive (VAR) and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models are estimated in an unbalanced panel data analysis procedure. Results reveal that exchange rate pass-through effects on the domestic prices are significant but not that strong in both the short-run and the long-run. Expectedly, the pass-through effects tend to diminish over time. The study concludes that policy-makers need to consider policy actions accompanying the exchange rate changes to ensure domestic price stability which consequently interacts with many macroeconomic indicators.

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