Estimating reference fishing mortality rates from noisy spawner–recruit data

2004 ◽  
Vol 61 (9) ◽  
pp. 1771-1783 ◽  
Author(s):  
A Jamie F Gibson ◽  
Ransom A Myers
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Maximum Sustainable Yield ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Estimates ◽  
Organizational Level ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Fishing Mortality ◽  
Over Exploitation

We review and evaluate methods of estimating reference fishing mortality rates from spawner–recruit (SR) data to obtain maximum sustainable yield. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we found that a reference fishing mortality rate derived from the maximum likelihood estimates of the SR parameters was less biased than reference fishing mortality rates obtained using the mode of the marginal probability distribution for the maximum rate that spawners produce recruits or by finding the fishing mortality rate that maximizes the expected yield. However, the maximum likelihood method produced the most variable estimates, at times leading to substantial under- or over-exploitation of the population. In contrast, the decision theoretic method of maximizing the expected yield exhibited less variability, produced higher yields, and substantially reduced the risk of overexploiting the population. We show how these methods can be extended to include information from other populations. Bayesian priors for the SR parameters, obtained through meta-analyses of population dynamics at some higher organizational level (e.g., the species), may be used to assess the plausibility of parameter estimates obtained for a single population or combined with the data for the population of interest. Reference fishing mortality rates are then estimated from the resulting joint posterior distribution.

Metric for Disassembly and Reuse Decisions: Formulation and Validation

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vijitashwa Pandey ◽  
Deborah Thurston
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Value Function ◽  
Choice Theory ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Estimates ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Maximum Value ◽  
Long Range Planning ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The Value Function

Design for disassembly and reuse focuses on developing methods to minimize difficulty in disassembly for maintenance or reuse. These methods can gain substantially if the relationship between component attributes (material mix, ease of disassembly etc.) and their likelihood of reuse or disposal is understood. For products already in the marketplace, a feedback approach that evaluates willingness of manufacturers or customers (decision makers) to reuse a component can reveal how attributes of a component affect reuse decisions. This paper introduces some metrics and combines them with ones proposed in literature into a measure that captures the overall value of a decision made by the decision makers. The premise is that the decision makers would choose a decision that has the maximum value. Four decisions are considered regarding a component’s fate after recovery ranging from direct reuse to disposal. A method on the lines of discrete choice theory is utilized that uses maximum likelihood estimates to determine the parameters that define the value function. The maximum likelihood method can take inputs from actual decisions made by the decision makers to assess the value function. This function can be used to determine the likelihood that the component takes a certain path (one of the four decisions), taking as input its attributes, which can facilitate long range planning and also help determine ways reuse decisions can be influenced.

scholarly journals Can stock–recruitment points determine which spawning potential ratio is the best proxy for maximum sustainable yield reference points?

2013 ◽  
Vol 70 (6) ◽  
pp. 1075-1080 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher M. Legault ◽  
Elizabeth N. Brooks
Keyword(s):  
Life History ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Maximum Sustainable Yield ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Sustainable Yield ◽  
Marine Science ◽  
Fishing Mortality ◽  
Scatter Plots ◽  
Stock Recruitment ◽  
Spawning Potential Ratio

Abstract Legault, C. M., and Brooks, E. N. 2013. Can stock–recruitment points determine which spawning potential ratio is the best proxy for maximum sustainable yield reference points? – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 70: 1075–1080. The approach of examining scatter plots of stock–recruitment (S–R) estimates to determine appropriate spawning potential ratio (SPR)-based proxies for FMSY was investigated through simulation. As originally proposed, the approach assumed that points above a replacement line indicate year classes that produced a surplus of spawners, while points below that line failed to achieve replacement. In practice, this has been implemented by determining Fmed, the fishing mortality rate that produces a replacement line with 50% of the points above and 50% below the line. A new variation on this approach suggests FMSY proxies can be determined by examining the distribution of S–R points that are above or below replacement lines associated with specific SPRs. Through both analytical calculations and stochastic results, we demonstrate that this approach is fundamentally flawed and that in some cases the inference is diametrically opposed to the method's intended purpose. We reject this approach as a tool for determining FMSY proxies. We recommend that the current proxy of F40% be maintained as appropriate for a typical groundfish life history.

scholarly journals Optimal fishing mortality assignment for southern hake Merluccius australis in Chile

2020 ◽  
Vol 48 (4) ◽  
pp. 613-625
Author(s):  
Felipe Lopez ◽  
Jorge Jimenez ◽  
Cristian Canales
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Economic Benefit ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Fish Population ◽  
Fishing Effort ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Historical Background ◽  
Total Catch ◽  
Fishing Mortality ◽  
Objective Functions

Since 1979, southern hake (Merluccius australis) has been exploited in Chile from the Bio Bio to the Magallanes regions, between the parallels 41°28.6'S and 57°S. There is evidence of a constant fishing effort and a sustained reduction of the fish population, consistent with a progressive decrease in total annual catches. Management strategies based on the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) and quota assignment/ distribution criteria have not been able to sustain acceptable biomass levels. A non-linear optimization model with two objective functions was proposed to determine an optimal total catch quota for more sustainable exploitation of this fishery. The first function maximizes the total catch over time in response to an optimal assignment of fishing mortality rates per fleet; the second function maximizes the total economic benefit associated with the total catch. The dynamics of the fish population were represented with the equations of a predictive age-structured model. Decision variables were fishing mortality rates and annual catch quotas per fleet, subject to constraints that guarantee a minimum level of biomass escape over a long-term period. The input parameters were obtained from the last stock evaluation report carried out by the Instituto de Fomento Pesquero (IFOP) of Chile. The historical background data of the fishery and the regulatory framework were relevant aspects of the methodology. Five scenarios were evaluated with the two objective functions, including a base scenario, which considered the referential mortality rate as input data as the average mortality rate per fleet from 2007 to 2012. Total economic benefits fluctuate between 102 and USD 442 million for total catches in the range of 108 to 421 thousand tons, which were obtained from maximizing the economic and biological objective functions. Economic benefit/catch ratios were reduced for scenarios with higher constraints on catch limits, and they were more efficient from a biological point of view. Situations with lighter constraints showed in general higher economic benefits and better performance ratios than those with stronger restrictions. The use of optimization models may provide a useful tool to evaluate the effect of regulations for adequate conservation and economical utilization of a limited resource.

scholarly journals Robust parametric estimates of inhomogeneous experimental data

2020 ◽  
pp. 55-62
Author(s):  
V.A. Simakhin ◽  
◽  
L.G. Shamanaeva ◽  
A.E. Avdyushina ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Data ◽  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Method ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Estimates ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Robust Estimates

In the present work, a weighed maximum likelihood method (WMLM) is proposed to obtain robust estimates for processing experimental data containing outliers. The method allows robust asymptotic unbiased and effective estimates to be obtained in the presence of not only external, but also internal asymmetric and symmetric outliers. Algorithms for obtaining robust WMLM estimates are considered at the parametric level of aprioristic uncertainty. It is demonstrated that these estimates converge to maximum likelihood estimates of an inhomogeneous sample for each distribution from the Tukey supermodel.

scholarly journals On Modified Burr XII-Inverse Weibull Distribution: Development, Properties, Characterizations and Applications

2020 ◽  
pp. 721-735
Author(s):  
Fiaz Ahmad Bhatti ◽  
G. G. Hamedani ◽  
Haitham M. Yousof ◽  
Azeem Ali ◽  
Munir Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Hazard Rate ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Method ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Lifetime Distribution ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Estimates ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Quarterly Earnings ◽  
Inverse Weibull Distribution

A flexible lifetime distribution with increasing, decreasing, inverted bathtub and modified bathtub hazard rate called Modified Burr XII-Inverse Weibull (MBXII-IW) is introduced and studied. The density function of MBXII-IW is exponential, left-skewed, right-skewed and symmetrical shaped.  Descriptive measures on the basis of quantiles, moments, order statistics and reliability measures are theoretically established. The MBXII-IW distribution is characterized via different techniques. Parameters of MBXII-IW distribution are estimated using maximum likelihood method. The simulation study is performed to illustrate the performance of the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs). The potentiality of MBXII-IW distribution is demonstrated by its application to real data sets: serum-reversal times and quarterly earnings.

scholarly journals Efficient Maximum-Likelihood Inference For The Isolation-With-Initial-Migration Model With Potentially Asymmetric Gene Flow

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rui J. Costa ◽  
Hilde Wilkinson-Herbots
Keyword(s):  
Gene Flow ◽  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Dna Sequences ◽  
Computing Time ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Ancestral Population ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Fast Method ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Im Model

AbstractThe isolation-with-migration (IM) model is commonly used to make inferences about gene flow during speciation, using polymorphism data. However, Becquet and Przeworski (2009) report that the parameter estimates obtained by fitting the IM model are very sensitive to the model's assumptions (including the assumption of constant gene flow until the present). This paper is concerned with the isolation-with-initial-migration (IIM) model of Wilkinson-Herbots (2012), which drops precisely this assumption. In the IIM model, one ancestral population divides into two descendant subpopulations, between which there is an initial period of gene flow and a subsequent period of isolation. We derive a very fast method of fitting an extended version of the IIM model, which also allows for asymmetric gene flow and unequal population sizes. This is a maximum-likelihood method, applicable to data on the number of segregating sites between pairs of DNA sequences from a large number of independent loci. In addition to obtaining parameter estimates, our method can also be used to distinguish between alternative models representing different evolutionary scenarios, by means of likelihood ratio tests. We illustrate the procedure on pairs of Drosophila sequences from approximately 30,000 loci. The computing time needed to fit the most complex version of the model to this data set is only a couple of minutes. The R code to fit the IIM model can be found in the supplementary files of this paper.

Relationship of Fishing Mortality to Natural Mortality and Growth at the Level of Maximum Sustainable Yield

1982 ◽  
Vol 39 (7) ◽  
pp. 1054-1058 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. B. Deriso
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Model ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Maximum Sustainable Yield ◽  
Sustainable Yield ◽  
Natural Mortality ◽  
Fishing Mortality ◽  
Difference Model ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
Yield Per Recruit ◽  
Delay Difference

Fishing mortality constraints are derived for fishes harvested at the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) determined by a delay-difference population model. Those constraints depend upon rates of natural mortality and growth as well as a simple constraint placed on abundance of the exploited population. The results are generalized for a wider class of population models where it is shown that MSY fishing mortality is constrained often to be less than the fishing mortality which maximizes yield per recruit. Fishing mortality rates are lower in the delay difference model in comparison to MSY fishing rates in the logistic model, when a quadratic spawner–recruit curve is applied.Key words: delay-difference model, logistic model, fishing mortality, maximum sustainable yield, yield per recruit

An application of Bayesian techniques to the genetic evaluation of growth traits in Eucalyptus globulus

1998 ◽  
Vol 28 (9) ◽  
pp. 1286-1294 ◽  
Author(s):  
F Soria ◽  
F Basurco ◽  
G Toval ◽  
L Silió ◽  
M C Rodriguez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Eucalyptus Globulus ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Estimates ◽  
Breeding Value ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Phenotypic Correlation ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Breeding Values ◽  
Bayesian Techniques ◽  
Self Pollination

A Bayesian procedure coupled with Gibbs sampling was implemented to obtain inferences about genetic parameters and breeding values for height and diameter of 7-year-old Eucalyptus globulus Labill. is described. The data set consisted of 21 708 trees from 260 open-pollinated families taken from 10 different Australian provenances, from one Spanish population, and from two clones. The trees are distributed over eight sites in the south of Spain, with 20 blocks per site. Data were corrected for heterogeneity of phenotypic variances between blocks. In the analysis, a self-pollination rate of 30% for the open-pollinated families is assumed in the relationship matrix. The posterior means (and standard deviations) of the heritabilities of height and diameter and the genetic and phenotypic correlation were 0.217 (0.014), 0.128 (0.084), 0.768 (0.028), and 0.799 (0.003). Results from the standard restricted maximum likelihood method were 0.173, 0.113, 0.759, and 0.798, respectively. Most of the discrepancy in heritability estimates from both methods can be attributed to the adjustement of residual maximum likelihood estimates to the assumed self-pollination rate, which ignores the presence of clones in the trial. The effect of the method of prediction of breeding values (best linear unbiased prediction or Bayesian techniques) on the genetic superiority of the selected trees was not important. Differences in breeding value among provenances and among families were evidenced for both traits.

Sustainability assessment for fishing effects (SAFE) on highly diverse and data-limited fish bycatch in a tropical prawn trawl fishery

2009 ◽  
Vol 60 (6) ◽  
pp. 563 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shijie Zhou ◽  
Shane P. Griffiths ◽  
Margaret Miller
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Fishery Management ◽  
Sustainability Assessment ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Fishing Mortality ◽  
Point Estimates ◽  
Large Numbers

A new sustainability assessment for fishing effects (SAFE) method was used to assess the biological sustainability of 456 teleost bycatch species in Australia’s Northern Prawn Fishery. This method can quantify the effects of fishing on sustainability for large numbers of species with limited data. The fishing mortality rate of each species based on its spatial distribution (estimated from detection/non-detection data) and the catch rate based on fishery-dependent or fishery-independent data were estimated. The sustainability of each species was assessed by two biological reference points approximated from life-history parameters. The point estimates indicated that only two species (but 21 when uncertainty was included) had estimated fishing mortality rates greater than a fishing mortality rate corresponding to the maximum sustainable yield. These two species also had their upper 95% confidence intervals (but not their point estimates) greater than their minimum unsustainable fishing mortality rates. The fact that large numbers of species are sustainable can be attributed mainly to their wide distributions in unfished areas, low catch rates within fished areas and short life spans (high biological productivity). The present study demonstrates how SAFE may be a cost-effective quantitative assessment method to support ecosystem-based fishery management.

Fitting The Best–Fit Distribution For The Hourly Rainfall Amount In The Wilayah Persekutuan

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fadhilah Y. ◽  
Zalina Md. ◽  
Nguyen V–T–V. ◽  
Suhaila S. ◽  
Zulkifli Y.
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Rainfall Amount ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Goodness Of Fit Test ◽  
Hourly Rainfall ◽  
Best Fit ◽  
Mixed Exponential Distribution

Dalam mengenal pasti model yang terbaik untuk mewakili taburan jumlah hujan bagi data selang masa satu jam di 12 stesen di Wilayah Persekutuan empat taburan digunakan iaitu Taburan Eksponen, Gamma, Weibull dan Gabungan Eksponen. Parameter–parameter dianggar menggunakan kaedah kebolehjadian maksimum. Model yang terbaik dipilih berdasarkan nilai minimum yang diperolehi daripada ujian–ujian kebagusan penyuaian yang digunakan dalam kajian ini. Ujian ini dipertahankan lagi dengan plot kebarangkalian dilampaui. Taburan Gabungan Eksponen di dapati paling baik untuk mewakili taburan jumlah hujan dalam selang masa satu jam. Daripada anggaran parameter bagi taburan Gabungan Eksponen ini, boleh diterjemah bahawa jumlah hujan tertinggi yang direkodkan diperolehi daripada hujan yang dikategorikan sebagai hujan lebat, walaupun hujan renyai–renyai berlaku lebih kerap. Kata kunci: Jumlah hujan dalam selang masa sejam, ujian kebagusan penyuaian, kebolehjadian maksimum In determining the best–fit model for the hourly rainfall amounts for the twelve stations in the Wilayah Persekutuan, four distributions namely, the Exponential, Gamma, Weibull and Mixed–Exponential were used. Parameters for each distribution were estimated using the maximum likelihood method. The best–fit model was chosen based upon the minimum error produced by the goodness–offit tests used in this study. The tests were justified further by the exceedance probability plot. The Mixed–Exponential was found to be the most appropriate distribution in describing the hourly rainfall amounts. From the parameter estimates for the Mixed–Exponential distribution, it could be implied that most of the hourly rainfall amount recorded were received from the heavy rainfall even though there was a high occurrences of light rainfall. Key words: Hourly rainfall amount, goodness-of-fit test, exceedance probability, maximum likelihood

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