Link Between Long-Term Variability in Upwelling and Fish Production in the Northeast Pacific Ocean

The biomass of pelagic fish in the Coastal Upwelling Domain off the west coast of North America decreased by a factor of 5 in the first half of this century. We assemble several physical and biological time series spanning this period to determine what may have caused this decline in productivity. Based on an observed link between time series of the coastal wind and primary production, we conclude that there was a strong relaxation in wind-induced upwelling and primary production between 1916 and 1942 off southern California. The fact that the individual biomasses of the dominant pelagic fish species tend to rise and fall in phase through the sediment record off southern California is consistent with our belief that these species are responding to a long-period (40–60 yr) oscillation in primary and secondary production, which, in turn, is being forced by a long-period oscillation in wind-induced upwelling. Our extended sardine recruitment time series indicates that there is a nonlinear relationship between Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) recruitment and upwelling and suggests that optimal recruitment occurs when the wind speed during the first few months of life averages 7–8 m/s.