Productivity of Ontario initial-attack fire crews: results of an expert-judgement elicitation study

2004 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 705-715 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kelvin G Hirsch ◽  
Justin J Podur ◽  
Robert F Janser ◽  
Robert S McAlpine ◽  
David L Martell
Keyword(s):  
Fire Management ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Management Program ◽  
Expert Judgement ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Initial Attack ◽  
Time Estimates ◽  
Elicitation Study ◽  
Distribution Parameters

A structured expert-judgement elicitation technique was used to develop probability distributions for fireline production rates for Ontario's three- and four-person initial-attack crews for seven common fuel types and two distinct levels of fire intensity (i.e., low, 500 kW/m; moderate, 1500 kW/m). A total of 141 crew leaders provided 900 estimates of the minimum, maximum, and most likely (mode) time to construct 610 m (2000 ft) of fireline. This information was used to estimate parameters for beta probability distributions for each individual and scenario. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) of the beta-distribution parameters (α and β) and the three time estimates indicated that fuel type, intensity, crew size, and crew-leader experience all have a statistically significant (p < 0.05) influence on estimated crew productivity. The 28 scenario-specific and 7 aggregated distributions and expected values can be used in many operational fire-management activities (e.g., presuppression planning, initial-attack dispatching, initial-fire assessments) and incorporated into initial-attack containment models. These results also provide baseline data on crew productivity that can be used in larger strategic analyses to gauge the benefits of new fire-suppression equipment and techniques for the entire fire-management program.

Goal setting and Indigenous fire management: a holistic perspective

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (11) ◽  
pp. 974
Author(s):  
William Nikolakis ◽  
Emma Roberts ◽  
Ngaio Hotte ◽  
Russell Myers Ross
Keyword(s):  
First Nations ◽  
Goal Setting ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Management Program ◽  
And Cluster Analysis ◽  
General Goals ◽  
In Fire

After generations of fire-suppression policy, Indigenous fire management (IFM) is being reactivated as one way to mitigate wildfire in fire-prone ecosystems. Research has documented that IFM also mitigates carbon emissions, improves livelihoods and enhances well-being among participants. This study documents the goals of the Yunesit’in and Xeni Gwet’in First Nations as they develop a fire management program in central British Columbia, Canada. Drawing on goal setting theory and interviews, a qualitative coding and cluster analysis identified three general goals from fire management: (1) strengthen cultural connection and well-being, (2) restore the health of the land and (3) respect traditional laws. Sub-goals included enhancing community member health and well-being, improving fire management practices to maintain ‘pyrodiversity’ and food security and re-empowering Indigenous laws and practices. This community-developed framework will guide program evaluation and brings insight to a theory of IFM.

A Review of Initial Attack Fire Crew Productivity and Effectiveness

1996 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 199 ◽  
Author(s):  
KG Hirsch ◽  
DL Martell
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
The United States ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Initial Attack ◽  
Forest Fire Management ◽  
Rules Of Thumb ◽  
Computer Based ◽  
Management Decision Support

Information regarding the productivity and effectiveness of initial attack fire crews is essential to a wide variety of forest fire management activities. This paper provides a selective review of crew productivity research conducted in Australia, Canada, and the United States and a cursory overview of how such information is used in computer-based fire management decision support systems. A description of several widely used rules-of-thumb that relate suppression effectiveness to fire intensity is presented as well as our understanding of how these guidelines may have evolved. This is followed by an example of some of the difficulties associated with transferring productivity and effectiveness information between fire management organizations and fire environments. The paper concludes with a discussion of strategies for investigating initial attack crew performance.

scholarly journals Factors influencing fire suppression success in the province of Quebec (Canada)

2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (5) ◽  
pp. 531-542 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Cardil ◽  
M. Lorente ◽  
D. Boucher ◽  
J. Boucher ◽  
S. Gauthier
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Fire Protection ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Fuel Type ◽  
Initial Attack ◽  
Fire Size ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Forest Fire Protection

In the managed forest of Canada, forest fires are actively suppressed through efficient initial attack capability; however, the impact of different factors on the suppression success remains to be understood. The aim of this paper was to analyze the influence of operational suppression objectives (fire detection, initial attack, and fire control) along with fire intensity, fuel type, fire ignition cause, year, workload, and homogeneous fire regime zones on the achievement of the fire suppression objective (fire < 3 ha) using the Forest Fire Protection Agency of Quebec (SOPFEU) as a case study. The overall success of the suppression objective was very high (88%) over the study period (1994–2015). Both detection and control had significant effects on the suppression success through their interaction with fuel type, ignition cause, fire intensity, and zone variables. When the suppression objective was not achieved, final fire size was influenced by control, fuel type, fire intensity, and zone. The paper highlights the importance of the operational objectives and of regional differences for both fire suppression success and final fire size. Our results can help forest fire protection agencies to better understand their wildland fire suppression systems for a better adaptation to the upcoming fire regime changes.

scholarly journals Modeling Airtanker Flight Distance between Concurrent Fires: The Development and Use of Statistical Distribution Parameters

2008 ◽  
Vol 54 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-57
Author(s):  
Francis E. Greulich
Keyword(s):  
System Design ◽  
Analytical Methods ◽  
Statistical Distribution ◽  
Flight Distance ◽  
Design Parameters ◽  
Initial Attack ◽  
System Planning ◽  
Protection Zone ◽  
Transfer Activity ◽  
Distribution Parameters

Abstract Airtankers, while actively engaging in initial attack, are sometimes reassigned and flown directly to another randomly occurring initial attack fire. Airtanker system planning that means to incorporate this fire-to-fire transfer activity needs information about the flight distance between these randomly located fires. Moments of the distance distribution, derived in this article, can be used to characterize and evaluate fire-to-fire airtanker dispatch within and between protection areas. A hypothetical example illustrates how a proposed change in an airtanker protection zone can affect not only airbase-to-fire flight distance but also fire-to-fire flight distance. In this example, the expected airbase-to-fire distance and the expected total transfer-flight distance are both significantly reduced, but at the same time, somewhat unexpectedly, the average fire-to-fire flight distance actually increases. The discovery and quantification of such unanticipated results can potentially influence airtanker system design. These key system design parameters can now be obtained through the exceedingly fast and accurate analytical methods presented here.

Utilizarea teoriei valorilor extreme în climatologie

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valentin Raileanu ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
R Software ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Data Format ◽  
Generalized Pareto ◽  
Distribution Parameters

The article briefly describes the history and fields of application of the theory of extreme values, including climatology. The data format, the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) probability distributions with Bock Maxima, the Generalized Pareto (GP) distributions with Point of Threshold (POT) and the analysis methods are presented. Estimating the distribution parameters is done using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method. Free R software installation, the minimum set of required commands and the GUI in2extRemes graphical package are described. As an example, the results of the GEV analysis of a simulated data set in in2extRemes are presented.

scholarly journals A comparison of three parameter estimation methods of the gamma distribution of annual maximum low flow duration and deficit in the Upper Vistula catchment (Poland)

2018 ◽  
Vol 23 ◽  
pp. 00001
Author(s):  
Katarzyna Baran-Gurgul
Keyword(s):  
Gamma Distribution ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Goodness Of Fit Test ◽  
Flow Duration ◽  
Distribution Parameters ◽  
Anderson Darling ◽  
Parameter Estimation Methods

Based on 30-year 24-hour flow sequences at 69 water gauging stations in the Upper Vistula catchment, it was determined that the probability distributions of the low flow duration and its maximum annual deficit can be described by the gamma distribution with the estimated parameters by the methods: MOM, the method of moments, LMOM, the method of linear moments, and MLE, the method of maximum likelihood. The stationarity of the time series was tested by the Mann-Kendall correlation using the Hamed and Rao variance correction. The low flows were defined by the SPA method, with the limit flow Q70%. The quality of the match was tested by the Anderson-Darling goodness of fit test. This test allowed accepting the gamma distribution in all analysed cases, regardless of the method used to estimate the distribution parameters, since the pv (p-values) values were greater than 5% (over 18% for Tmax and 7.5% for Vmax). The highest pv values for individual water gauging stations, as well as the highest 90% Tmax and Vmax quantiles were noted using LMOM to estimate the gamma distribution parameters. The highest 90% Tmax and Vmax quantiles were observed in the uppermost part of the studied area.

From fire suppression to fire management: Advances and resistances to changes in fire policy in the savannas of Brazil and Venezuela

2018 ◽  
Vol 185 (1) ◽  
pp. 10-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ludivine Eloy ◽  
Bibiana A. Bilbao ◽  
Jayalaxshmi Mistry ◽  
Isabel B. Schmidt
Keyword(s):  
Fire Management ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Fire Policy ◽  
In Fire

scholarly journals Trends and gaps of the scientific literature about the effects of fire on Brazilian Cerrado

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Filipe Viegas de Arruda ◽  
Diego Guimarães de Sousa ◽  
Fabrício Barreto Teresa ◽  
Vitor Hugo Mendonça do Prado ◽  
Hélida Ferreira da Cunha ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
International Institutions ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Scientific Literature ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Biotic Interactions ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Fire Effects ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Brazilian Cerrado ◽  
Number Of Publications

Abstract Fire management is an important issue in the Brazilian Cerrado, since both anthropogenic high intensity fires and complete fire suppression can reduce the biodiversity in this biome. In this paper, we highlight the trends in scientific literature about fire effects in the Cerrado, aiming to detect possible gaps and to indicate directions of future scientific research. We searched for articles in the periodic database Web of Knowledge from 1991 to 2016, and observed an increase in the number of publications throughout the years. Most articles were associated with Brazilian institutions (58%), followed by those with collaboration between Brazilian and international institutions (33%), and those published by authors exclusively from international institutions (9%). Most articles addressed the effects of fire on biodiversity (77%), followed by articles about abiotic environment (19%), and then biotic interactions or interactions between organisms and environment (4%). The most studied taxonomic group was plants (75%), followed by mammals (8%) and insects (6%), with the remaining taxa comprising about 11% of publications. The Federal District was the federative unit with the greatest number of studies (31%). The majority of studies was conducted in areas with fewer fire events, whereas areas with major incidence of fires are poorly studied. Our data shows that studies on the effect of fires on the Brazilian Cerrado are geographically and taxonomically biased. This lack of knowledge limits the extrapolations about the effects of fire on this biome. Therefore, we emphasize the need for investment in research in areas with high fire frequency and also for an increase in knowledge about these effects on the biota, especially on the fauna. This action is fundamental to support the development of public policies for effective and directed fire management in the Cerrado.

Changing fuel management strategies - The challenge of meeting new information and analysis needs

2001 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 267 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susan G. Conard ◽  
Timothy Hartzell ◽  
Michael W. Hilbruner ◽  
G. Thomas Zimmerman
Keyword(s):  
Fire Management ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Fire Hazard ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Scientific Basis ◽  
Fuel Management ◽  
Burned Areas ◽  
Ecological Principles ◽  
In Fire

This paper was presented at the conference ‘Integrating spatial technologies and ecological principles for a new age in fire management’, Boise, Idaho, USA, June 1999 ‘The earth, born in fire, baptized by lightning since before life&quot;s beginning, has been and is a fire planet.’ E.V. Komarek Attitudes and policies concerning wildland fire, fire use, and fire management have changed greatly since early European settlers arrived in North America. Active suppression of wildfires accelerated early in the 20th Century, and areas burned dropped dramatically. In recent years, burned areas and cost of fires have begun to increase, in part due to fuel buildups resulting from fire suppression. The importance of fire as an ecosystem process is also being increasingly recognized. These factors are leading to changes in Federal agency fire and fuels management policies, including increased emphasis on use of prescribed fire and other treatments to reduce fuel loads and fire hazard. Changing fire management strategies have highlighted the need for better information and improved risk analysis techniques for setting regional and national priorities, and for monitoring and evaluating the ecological, economic, and social effects and tradeoffs of fuel management treatments and wildfires. The US Department of Interior and USDA Forest Service began the Joint Fire Science Program in 1998 to provide a sound scientific basis for implementing and evaluating fuel management activities. Development of remote sensing and GIS tools will play a key role in enabling land managers to evaluate hazards, monitor changes, and reduce risks to the environment and the public from wildland fires.

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