A POSSIBILISTIC APPROACH TO INVESTMENT DECISION MAKING

2013 ◽  
Vol 21 (02) ◽  
pp. 201-221 ◽  
Author(s):  
LUCA ANZILLI
Keyword(s):  
Net Present Value ◽  
Fuzzy Numbers ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Adaptive Fuzzy ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Future Cash Flows

The concept of possibilistic mean value and variance of fuzzy numbers has been applied to investment decisions by using a nonlinear type of fuzzy numbers called adaptive fuzzy numbers. In this paper, by extending the notion of adaptive fuzzy number, we propose a more flexible methodology. Our aim is to allow decision maker more flexibility in dealing with ambiguity and uncertainty. To illustrate the use of our approach and its ability in dealing with ambiguity and imprecision we analyze, as an application, the fuzzy net present value of future cash flows and give some numerical results.

scholarly journals "What If" Analyses in Investment Decision Making

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 5-16
Author(s):  
Katarína Belanová
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow ◽  
Basic Approach ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Future Cash Flows

In general, each project`s value is estimated using a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation, and the opportunity with the highest value, as measured by the resultant net present value (NPV) will be selected. The problem with such NPV estimates is that they depend on projected future cash flows. If there are errors in those projections, then estimated net present values can be misleading (a forecasting risk). Basic approach to evaluating cash flow and NPV estimates involves asking “what – if” questions. Accordingly, the paper discusses some organized way s of going about a what – if analysis. Its goal in doing so is to assess the degree of forecasting risk and to identify those elements that are the most critical to the success or failure of an investment. However, as we show in examples, as well as in the practical study, though what – if analysis really allows us to obtain the certain idea of degree of forecasting risk, it does not tell us what to do about the possible errors.

scholarly journals The role of the theory of real choices in the development of financial managers and their decisions in the evaluation of investment decisions

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 278
Author(s):  
Ammar Shihab Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Real Options ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Traditional Theory ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Real Options Theory ◽  
Capital Budget ◽  
New Variables ◽  
Future Cash Flows

According to traditional theory of the capital budget, the net present value of future cash flows of the project are discounted at an appropriate discount reflects the degree of volatility in expected future cash flows. If the net present value is positive accept the project and vice versa. And also do not show the actions that can be taken after the acceptance of the project and the commencement of work that could result in an increase or decrease of cash flows, and here highlights the shortcomings with the current environment variables that are complex, leading to a search for new methods in line with these new variables and of the theory real options to evaluate investment decisions and that gives a big role Skilled managers in making capital decisions, which is reflected in the cash flows of investment decisions and future reduction of risk, hence requiring real options theory enjoy CFOs high skills in order to maximize the company to which they belong value, so the company's skilled management is an important tributary of the success of companies that are looking for the competitive advantage that achieve the company's goals and the reduction of risk and the resulting Allatakd and of cash flows that you get as a result of the decisions of its managers.

scholarly journals The Financial Valuation Risk in Pepper Production: The Use of Decoupled Net Present Value

Mathematics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 13
Author(s):  
Josefa López-Marín ◽  
Amparo Gálvez ◽  
Francisco M. del Amor ◽  
Jose M. Brotons
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Financial Valuation ◽  
Production Activity ◽  
Quality Water ◽  
Future Cash Flows ◽  
Over Time

Greenhouse peppers are one of the most important crops globally. However, as in any production activity, especially agricultural, they are subject to important risk factors such as price fluctuations, pests, or the use of bad quality water. This article aims to evaluate the viability of these types of crops by using discounted cash flows. Risk evaluation has been carried out through the analysis of pepper plantations for 2016 and 2017. The traditional application of this tool has significant limitations, such as the discount rate to be used or the estimation of future cash flows. However, by using discount functions that decrease over time in combination with decoupled net present value, these limitations are expected to improve. The use of decoupled net present value has permitted an increase in the accuracy and quantification of risks, isolating the main risks such as price drops (EUR 3720 ha−1 year−1) and structural risks (EUR 1622 € ha−1 year−1). The use of decreasing discount functions has permitted a more realistic investment estimation. Finally, the sensitivity analysis shows that decoupled net present value (DNPV) is little affected by changes in interest rates in contrast to traditional net present value (NPV).

scholarly journals Decision Making for Project Appraisal in Uncertain Environments: A Fuzzy-Possibilistic Approach of the Expanded NPV Method

Symmetry ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Konstantinos A. Chrysafis ◽  
Basil K. Papadopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Net Present Value ◽  
Fuzzy Numbers ◽  
Cost Of Capital ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Major Drawback ◽  
Project Appraisal ◽  
Equity Cost ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Intelligent Methods

The major drawback of the classic approaches for project appraisal is the lack of the possibility to handle change requests during the project’s life cycle. This fact incorporates the concept of uncertainty in the estimation of this investment’s worth. To resolve this issue, the authors use fuzzy numbers, possibilistic moments of fuzzy numbers and the hybrid (fuzzy statistic) fuzzy estimators’ method in order to introduce a fuzzy possibilistic version of the expanded net present value method (FPeNPV). This approach consists of two factors: the fuzzy possibilistic NPV and the fuzzy option premium. For the estimation of the fuzzy NPV, some basic assumptions are taken into consideration: (1) the opportunity cost of capital, used as the present value interest factor calculated through the weighted average cost of capital (WACC), (2) the equity cost, determined through the possibilistic set-up of the capital asset pricing model CAPM, and (3) the inflation factor, also included in the estimation of the NPV. The fuzzy estimators’ method is used for the computation of the fuzzy option premium. An algorithm of nine major steps leads to the computation of the FPeNPV. This gives the administration the opportunity to adapt to potential changes in the company’s internal and external environments. In this way, the symmetry between the planning and execution phase of a project can be reinstated. The results validate the statement that fuzzy and intelligent methods remain valuable tools to express uncertainty in various scientific areas. Finally, an illustrative example aims at a thorough comprehension of this new approach of the expanded NPV method.

scholarly journals Impact of Heuristics on Investment Decisions: The Moderating Role of Locus of Control

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Jeetendra Dangol ◽  
Rashmita Manandhar
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Locus Of Control ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Sampling Procedure ◽  
Moderating Effect ◽  
Moderation Effect ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Overconfidence Bias ◽  
The Impact

This paper aims to assess the impact of heuristics on the investment decision by analysing the effect of four heuristic biases, i.e., representativeness, availability, anchoring and adjustment, and overconfidence bias on rationality of Nepalese investor's investment decision-making and also examines the moderating effect of the internal locus of control in between. The study used 391 respondents based on a convenient sampling procedure, and structured questionnaire survey. The study result indicates that there is a significant relationship between irrationality in investment decision-making and all four heuristic biases. In addition, the study also concludes that locus of control has significant moderating effect in the relationship between investment decisions and three heuristic biases, i.e., availability, representative and anchoring bias. However, the study documents no moderation effect in case of relationship with overconfidence bias.

scholarly journals Research on Power Grid Investment Risk of Set-Analysis Method in New Electricity Reform

2018 ◽  
Vol 227 ◽  
pp. 02017
Author(s):  
Jianchang Lu ◽  
Dandan Xing
Keyword(s):  
Net Present Value ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Power Grid ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Investment Risk ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Profit Model ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Pair Analysis

In view of the change in the profit model of the power grid under the new power reform, If grid companies want to improve their economic efficiency, they must expand the scale of effective assets of fixed assets and increase the number of effective assets within the understanding of the demand for electricity.By determining the factors affecting the power grid investment in the new environment,a risk model for the power grid investment under the new power reform is constructed.First,this paper uses the set pair analysis method algorithm and derives the relevant formula to quantify uncertainties in grid investment risk.Then,it gets the results of the calculation of the degree of connection of each scheme and combine set pair events with a net present value less than 0 for each set evens.At last,based on the above results,we get the best investment plan.Verified by the case of the HBN grid company,it shows that the investment risk model established is feasible and can provide an appropriate reference for the new power companies to change their investment decisions.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Financial Literacy, Representativeness Bias, Dan Bias Optimisme Terhadap Pengambilan Keputusan Investasi

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 2976-2991
Author(s):  
Silvia Putri ◽  
Halmawati Halmawati
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Financial Literacy ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
State University ◽  
Investment Decision Making

This study aims to analyze 1) whether there is an influence of financial literacy on investment decision maknig. 2) Obtain empirical evidence whether there is an Representativeness bias making on investment decisions. 3) Does Bias optimisme affect investment decision making. In this study using Causality Design. Population and sampek are 104 respondents registered in the Indonesia Stock Exchange Investment Gallery (GIBEI) Faculty of Economics, State University of Padang. The method of analysis is multiple linear regression. The results of the study found 1) Financial literacy influences investment decisions on investment decision making.2) Optimum bias affects investment decisions on investment decision making. 3) Representativness influences investment decisions on investment decision making. 4) Together financial literacy variables, the optimum bias and representativness together influence the investment decision on investment decision making

scholarly journals ASSESSMENT OF THE ROLE OF ACCOUNTING INFORMATION ON EFFECTIVE INVESTMENT DECISION - THE CASE OF BANQUE POPULAIRE DU RWANDA ATLASMARA

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
James Hodari
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Data Collection ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Accounting Information ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Target Population ◽  
Staff Members ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Secondary Methods

The purpose of this study is to assess the role of accounting information on effective investment decisions at Banque Populaire du Rwanda Atlasmara. The target population was 50 staff members. The study used a primary method that involved questionnaires. Secondary methods of data collection involved a desk review of relevant materials. Data collection was then analyzed by using SPSS software. The study indicated a significant correlation between accounting information and investment decisions and all rely on information for an investment decision. It was seen from the analysis of responses, 83% argued always use accounting information for investment. It was revealed that the quality of accounting information in terms of its accuracy, adequacy, reliability, and mode of disclosure is a pertinent element of efficiency of investment decision making. The study recommends that commercial banks should use accounting always to increase the accuracy of their investment decision-making. The study recommends that Banque Populaire du Rwanda should consult the accounting information before making investment decisions and all interested parties to accounting information should use necessary financial ratios analysis for an investment decision. The study concludes that there is a significant correlation between accounting information and investment decision. JEL: M10; M41; R42 <p> </p><p><strong> Article visualizations:</strong></p><p><img src="/-counters-/edu_01/0845/a.php" alt="Hit counter" /></p>

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