scholarly journals "What If" Analyses in Investment Decision Making

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 5-16
Author(s):  
Katarína Belanová
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow ◽  
Basic Approach ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Future Cash Flows

In general, each project`s value is estimated using a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation, and the opportunity with the highest value, as measured by the resultant net present value (NPV) will be selected. The problem with such NPV estimates is that they depend on projected future cash flows. If there are errors in those projections, then estimated net present values can be misleading (a forecasting risk). Basic approach to evaluating cash flow and NPV estimates involves asking “what – if” questions. Accordingly, the paper discusses some organized way s of going about a what – if analysis. Its goal in doing so is to assess the degree of forecasting risk and to identify those elements that are the most critical to the success or failure of an investment. However, as we show in examples, as well as in the practical study, though what – if analysis really allows us to obtain the certain idea of degree of forecasting risk, it does not tell us what to do about the possible errors.

A POSSIBILISTIC APPROACH TO INVESTMENT DECISION MAKING

2013 ◽  
Vol 21 (02) ◽  
pp. 201-221 ◽  
Author(s):  
LUCA ANZILLI
Keyword(s):  
Net Present Value ◽  
Fuzzy Numbers ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Adaptive Fuzzy ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Future Cash Flows

The concept of possibilistic mean value and variance of fuzzy numbers has been applied to investment decisions by using a nonlinear type of fuzzy numbers called adaptive fuzzy numbers. In this paper, by extending the notion of adaptive fuzzy number, we propose a more flexible methodology. Our aim is to allow decision maker more flexibility in dealing with ambiguity and uncertainty. To illustrate the use of our approach and its ability in dealing with ambiguity and imprecision we analyze, as an application, the fuzzy net present value of future cash flows and give some numerical results.

How the Equity Terminal Value Influences the Value of the Firm?

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfonso A. Rojo-Ramírez ◽  
Maria J. Martínez-Romero ◽  
Teresa Mariño-Garrido
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Flow Model ◽  
Intrinsic Value ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Common Stock ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow ◽  
Valuation Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Future Cash Flows

AbstractThe discounted cash flow model (DCFM) views the intrinsic value of common stock as the present value of its expected future cash flows. This paper analyses whether the equity terminal value (EqTV) of the firm calculated by fundamentals is appreciated by the market. It also studies the impact of variations in EqTV and the extent to which the market perceives these variations. Using a sample of 62 Spanish listed companies, this paper shows that EqTV and its variations are positively and significantly correlated with EqTV assigned by the market and its corresponding variations. It therefore corroborates the validity and relevance of the valuation model.

AN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE OF NET PRESENT VALUE AND EQUIVALENT ANNUAL COST

1982 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas W. Jones ◽  
David Smith
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Annual Cost ◽  
Historical Development ◽  
Historical Perspective ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow

Net present value and equivalent annual cost are two discounted cash flow criteria for comparing investment proposals. Why have accountants taken to net present value? Why do engineers readily use equivalent annual cost? This paper investigates the historical development of these principles to provide an explanation of why this is so.

scholarly journals Probabilistic Estimation of the Energy Consumption and Performance of the Lighting Systems of Road Tunnels for Investment Decision Making

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 1488 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio Bracale ◽  
Pierluigi Caramia ◽  
Pietro Varilone ◽  
Paola Verde
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Business Strategy ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Final Decision ◽  
Capital Investments ◽  
Technical Performance ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Road Tunnels ◽  
Lighting Systems

This paper presents a probabilistic model for supporting the process of decision making about the value of new lighting systems in existing road tunnels when some data and parameters are affected by uncertainty. The proposed model, which we have called Probabilistic Energy Screening of Tunnel (PrEST), accounts for both the technical performance and the economic objectives of the new lighting systems. The technical performance is described on an adequate (x, y) plane that was defined by two indices. The first index measured the consumption of electricity per kilometre of tunnel lengths; the second index measured the performance of the lighting systems per unit of illuminated area. The economic results were measured by the net present value of the savings and by the payback period. Both the terms account for initial capital investments, energy and maintenance costs. PrEST was applied to two real road tunnels in service in Italy showing that the statistics of the results can support a final decision in function of the business strategy.

Usec Inc.

2017 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Kenneth M. Eades ◽  
Ben Mackovjak ◽  
Lucas Doe
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Cost Of Capital ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow ◽  
Important Input

This case is designed to present students with the challenges of formulating a discounted-cash-flow (DCF) analysis for a strategically important capital-investment decision. Analytically, the problem is representative of most corporate investment decisions, but it is particularly interesting because of the massive size of the American Centrifuge Project and the potential of the project to significantly affect the stock price. Students must determine the relevant cash flows, paying close attention to the treatment of input costs, selling prices, timing of investment outlays, depreciation, and inflation. An important input is the appropriate cost of uranium, which some students argue should be included at book value, while others argue that market value should be used. Although the primary objective of the case is to focus on the estimation of cash flows, students are provided with a straightforward set of inputs to estimate USEC's weighted average cost of capital. The case is designed for students who are learning, or need a refresher on, DCF analysis. Because of the basic issues covered, the case works well with undergraduate, MBA, and executive-education audiences. The case also affords the opportunity to explore a variety of issues related to capital-investment analysis, including relevant costs, incremental analysis, cost of capital, and sensitivity analysis. The case is an excellent example of the value of a firm as the value of assets in place plus the net present value of future growth opportunities.

Maintenance Decisions for Offshore Structures Using Real Options Theory

2004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ernesto Heredia-Zavoni ◽  
Sandra Santa-Cruz
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Real Options Theory ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
Maintenance Decisions ◽  
Options Theory

Real Options methods are currently used to assess investment projects considering: (1) the decision options that one can have along the development of the project, such as to expand it, or reduce it, or to abandon it, or to differ it, and (2) the uncertainty in some financial variables for the assessment of the economic investment. In these two regards, Real Options methods are superior to the traditional Net Present Value method. The purpose of the present paper is to establish the basis for Real Options modeling for decision making on design, inspection, maintenance, and decommissioning of offshore structures. The use of Real Options theory is sought in order to account for: (1) uncertainties in the financial variables involved in risk assessment based on expected costs, such as the economic consequences due to failure of a system; and (2) uncertainties associated with the resistance and loading of the structure for reliability assessment. An application of Real Options Theory is given in the paper for decision making on maintenance for an offshore structure. Cash flow from oil revenue is modeled as a stochastic process. Preventive and corrective maintenance is analyzed as a critical situation where the decision maker has the option to pay the costs of maintenance in order to obtain a benefit. Expressions are derived for the estimation of the value of the maintenance option; they are based on the derivation of the Black-Scholes equation for the evaluation of financial options. It is shown that the value of such project is equal to the sum of the net cash flow of the project (as with a Net Present Value evaluation) plus the value of the maintenance option. Projects with one and two decision times along the life of the structure are formulated and analyzed. Closed form solutions are obtained for such cases. An example is given in order to illustrate the differences between maintenance decisions using the Net Present Value and the Real Options method.

Aurora Textile Company

2017 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Kenneth M. Eades ◽  
Lucas Doe
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Financial Distress ◽  
Textile Industry ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Flow Analysis ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
List Type ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow ◽  
Cost Information

This case asks the student to decide whether Aurora Textile Company can create value by upgrading its spinning machine to produce higher-quality yarn that sells for a higher margin. Cost information allows the student to produce cash-flow projections for both the existing spinning machine and the new machine. The cash flows have many different cost components, including depreciation, the number of days of cotton inventory, and the liability costs associated with returns from retailers. The cost of capital is specified in order to simplify the analysis. The analysis has added complexity, however, owing to the troubled financial condition of both the company and the U.S. textile industry, which is in decline as manufacturers migrate to Asia to benefit from lower manufacturing costs. This begs the question whether management should invest in a declining business or harvest the company by paying out all profits as a dividend to the owners. The case is suitable for students just beginning to learn finance principles, but is also rich enough to use with experienced students and executives. The primary learning points are as follows: The basics of incremental-cash-flow analysis: identifying the cash flows relevant to a capital-investment decision The construction of a side-by-side discounted-cash-flow analysis for a replacement decision How to adapt the NPV decision rule to a troubled or dying industry The effect of financial distress on the NPV calculation The importance of sensitivity analysis to a capital-investment decision

Analytical capacity of financial statements against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (10) ◽  
pp. 1794-1821 ◽  
Author(s):  
O.V. Efimova ◽  
O.V. Rozhnova
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Financial Performance ◽  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Business Strategy ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Financial Statements ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Foreign Companies ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
The Impact

Subject. The paper explores the analytical capabilities of information disclosed in financial statements in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Objectives. The purpose is to identify the impact of the pandemic on financial statements and their analytical capabilities for investment decision-making. Methods. The study draws on methods of logical, statistical, comparative, and linguistic analysis. We analyze financial statements of Russian and foreign companies, paying special attention to the completeness of disclosed information on the impact of the pandemic on business and financial performance. We review annual financial statements for 2019, and interim reports for 2020. Results. We unveil the areas of disclosures that are most critical for the investment community and investment decision making, and vital for the analysis of financial performance and cash flows, given the unprecedented impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings may be applicable to financial reporting preparation by economic entities in terms of disclosure on various forms of transformation and adaptation of businesses to the new crisis conditions; modernization of accounting rules at the level of external and internal standards in the direction of coordinating financial and non-financial reporting information; enhancement of analytical capacity of disclosures. Conclusions. The study confirms the scientific hypothesis that investors require detailed disclosure in all areas of the pandemic impact. To evaluate the going concern assumption and to forecast cash flows, users need disclosures on business strategy, the business model and its adaptability to the conditions of the new normality, sources of cash flow generation, and their use areas.

OPTIMASI STRIPPING RATIO DENGAN METODE DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW PADA PROJECT PLTU MULUT TAMBANG

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 128-133
Author(s):  
Yudi Arista Yulanda ◽  
M. Taufik Toha ◽  
Fahrurrozi Syarkowi
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow

Harga batubara acuan pada bulan Januari 2020 adalah 65.93 USD/ton turun jauh dari tahun 2018 dimana harga batubara acuan sempat mencapai 107.83 USD/ton pada bulan Agustus. Dalam upaya menaikkan ratio elektrifikasi dalam RUPTL PLN 2018-2027 PLTU Mulut Tambang mendapatkan porsi 11 persen dengan peningkatan jumlah pembangkit setiap tahun nya. Keberadaan Batubara sebagai sumber daya alam yang terbatas dan tidak dapat diperbaharui menuntut penerapan prinsip konservasi cadangan batubara untuk mengoptimalkan keuntungan dan cadangan dengan memilih Stripping Ratio yang optimum. Tujuan penelitian ini yaitu untuk menentukan Stripping Ratio Optimum yang akan memberikan keuntungan terbaik menggunakan metode discounted cash flow sehingga batas penambangan optimum (Ultimate Pit Limit) juga dapat ditentukan. Optimasi ini dilakukan dengan men-generate data variasi Stripping Ratio yang menggambarkan pit limit dan cadangan dari masing-masing stripping ratio tersebut kemudian memasukkan konsiderasi ekonomi yang di discount rate untuk mendapat angka Net Present Value (NPV) sehingga bisa dianalisis dalam kurva optimasi. Hasil penelitian adalah Stripping Ratio optimum berdasarkan kurva optimasi dengan metode Konvensional NPV skenario Spot Price adalah 4.5 dengan total cadangan 7.5jt MT dan umur tambang 8 Tahun serta NPV 21,7 juta US$.

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