scholarly journals TRADER DYNAMICS IN A MODEL MARKET

2000 ◽  
Vol 03 (03) ◽  
pp. 443-450 ◽  
Author(s):  
NEIL F. JOHNSON ◽  
MICHAEL HART ◽  
PAK MING HUI ◽  
DAFANG ZHENG
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Heterogeneous Population ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
Large Fluctuations ◽  
Individual Traders ◽  
Model Market ◽  
Insight Into

We explore various extensions of Challet and Zhang's Minority Game in an attempt to gain insight into the dynamics underlying financial markets. First we consider a heterogeneous population where individual traders employ differing "time horizons" when making predictions based on historical data. The resulting average winnings per trader is a highly non-linear function of the population's composition. Second, we introduce a threshold confidence level among traders below which they will not trade. This can give rise to large fluctuations in the "volume" of market participants and the resulting market "price".

A Study on Risk Management in Financial Market

2019 ◽  
pp. 182-197
Author(s):  
Smruti Rekha Das ◽  
Kuhoo ◽  
Debahuti Mishra ◽  
Pradeep Kumar Mallick
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Business Goals ◽  
Current Price ◽  
Management Of Risk

The basic aim of risk management is to recognize, assess, and prioritize risk in order to assure that the uncertainty should not deviate from the intended purpose of the business goals. Risk can take place from various sources, which includes uncertainty in financial markets, recessions, inflation, interest rates, currency fluctuations, etc. Various methods used for this management of risk are faced with various decisions such as the market price, historical data, statistical methodologies, etc. For stock prices, the information derives from the historical data where the next price depends only upon the current price and some of the outside factors. Financial market is very risky to invest money, but the proper prediction with handling the risk will benefit a lot. Various types of risk in the financial market and the appropriate solutions to overcome the risk are analyzed in this study.

scholarly journals Can Economic Factors Improve Momentum Trading Strategies? The Case of Managed Futures during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 86
Author(s):  
Renata Guobužaitė ◽  
Deimantė Teresienė
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Trading Strategies ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Momentum Strategies ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Managed Futures ◽  
Asset Classes ◽  
Momentum Trading ◽  
Insight Into

Systematic momentum trading is a prevalent risk premium strategy in different portfolios. This paper focuses on the performance of the managed futures strategy based on the momentum signal across different economic regimes, focusing on the COVID-19 pandemic period. COVID-19 had a solid but short-lived impact on financial markets, and therefore gives a unique insight into momentum strategies’ performance during such critical moments of market stress. We offer a new approach to implementing momentum strategies by adding macroeconomic variables to the model. We test a managed futures strategy’s performance with a well-diversified futures portfolio across different asset classes. The research concludes that constructing a portfolio based on academically/economically sound momentum signals with its allocation timing based on broader economic factors significantly improves managed futures strategies and adds significant diversification benefits to the investors’ portfolios.

scholarly journals Detecting bursty terms in computer science research

2019 ◽  
Vol 122 (1) ◽  
pp. 681-699 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Tattershall ◽  
G. Nenadic ◽  
R. D. Stevens
Keyword(s):  
Computer Science ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Science Research ◽  
Detection Algorithm ◽  
Trend Detection ◽  
Free Text ◽  
Research Topics ◽  
Computer Science Research ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Over Time

AbstractResearch topics rise and fall in popularity over time, some more swiftly than others. The fastest rising topics are typically called bursts; for example “deep learning”, “internet of things” and “big data”. Being able to automatically detect and track bursty terms in the literature could give insight into how scientific thought evolves over time. In this paper, we take a trend detection algorithm from stock market analysis and apply it to over 30 years of computer science research abstracts, treating the prevalence of each term in the dataset like the price of a stock. Unlike previous work in this domain, we use the free text of abstracts and titles, resulting in a finer-grained analysis. We report a list of bursty terms, and then use historical data to build a classifier to predict whether they will rise or fall in popularity in the future, obtaining accuracy in the region of 80%. The proposed methodology can be applied to any time-ordered collection of text to yield past and present bursty terms and predict their probable fate.

scholarly journals The future of financial markets and regulation: what strategy for Europe?

foresight ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 95-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Baptiste Gossé ◽  
Dominique Plihon
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Realistic Option ◽  
The Future ◽  
Unstable Environment ◽  
Insight Into

Purpose – This article aims to provide insight into the future of financial markets and regulation in order to define what would be the best strategy for Europe. Design/methodology/approach – First the authors define the potential changes in financial markets and then the tools available for the regulator to tame them. Finally, they build five scenarios according to the main evolutions observed on the financial markets and on the tools used by the regulator to modify these trends. Findings – Among the five scenarios defined, two present highly unstable features since the regulator refuses to choose between financial opening and independently determining how to regulate finance in order to preserve financial stability. Three of them achieve financial stability. However, they are more or less efficient or feasible. In terms of market efficiency, the multi-polar scenario is the best and the fragmentation scenario is the worst, since gains of integration depend on the size of the new capital market. Regarding sovereignty of regulation, fragmentation is the best scenario and the multi-polar scenario is the worst, because it necessitates coordination at the global level which implies moving further away from respective national preferences. However, the more realistic option seems to be the regionalisation scenario: this level of coordination seems much more realistic than the global one; the market should be of sufficient size to enjoy substantial benefits of integration. Nevertheless, the “European government” might gradually increase the degree of financial integration outside Europe in line with the degree of cooperation with the rest of the world. Originality/value – Foresight studies on financial markets and regulation are quite rare. This may be explained by the difficulty to forecast what will be their evolution in the coming decades, not least because finance is fundamentally unstable. This paper provides a framework to consider what could be the best strategy of regulators in such an unstable environment.

scholarly journals Emergent volatility in asset markets with heterogeneous agents

2001 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 171-180 ◽  
Author(s):  
Honggang Li ◽  
J. Barkley Rosser
Keyword(s):  
Heterogeneous Agents ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Switching Behavior ◽  
Asset Markets ◽  
Technical Trading Rules ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Fundamental Value ◽  
Discrete Formulation

This paper examines the emergence of complex volatility in dynamic asset markets when there are heterogeneous agents. A discrete formulation is studied with two categories of market participants, fundamentalist traders who buy when the asset price is below the fundamental value and sell when it is above and noise traders who use moving average technical trading rules that can lead them to chase trends. Agents switch from one type of strategy to the other according to relative returns. A variety of outcomes are studied using numerical simulation, including variation of market price responsiveness to changes in excess demand, in switching behavior, and the introduction of noise. Bifurcation analysis of certain parameters is presented.

Large Surface Effect Ship Size Limits

2013 ◽  
Vol 29 (02) ◽  
pp. 84-91
Author(s):  
Stefanos Koullias ◽  
Santiago Balestrini Robinson ◽  
Dimitri N. Mavris
Keyword(s):  
Historical Data ◽  
Surface Effect ◽  
Advanced Materials ◽  
Complex Structures ◽  
First Principle ◽  
Simplified Models ◽  
Surface Effect Ship ◽  
Size Limits ◽  
Technology Level ◽  
Insight Into

The purpose of this study is to obtain insight into surface effect ship (SES) endurance without reliance on historical data as a function of geometry, displacement, and technology level. First-principle models of the resistance, structures, and propulsion system are developed and integrated to predict large SES endurance and to suggest the directions that future large SESs will take. It is found that large SESs are dominated by structural weight, which indicates the need for advanced materials and complex structures, and that advanced propulsion cycles can increase endurance by up to 33%. SES endurance is shown to be a nonlinear discontinuous function of geometry, displacement, and technology level that cannot be predicted by simplified models or assumptions.

Prediksi Harga Saham Perusahaan Perbankan Menggunakan Regresi Linear Studi Kasus Bank BCA Tahun 2015-2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-15
Author(s):  
Merfin Merfin ◽  
Raymond Sunardi Oetama
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Listed Company ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Average Error ◽  
Stock Investment ◽  
The People ◽  
Mining Tool ◽  
A Company

Stock investment is important for financial development in a company. Moreover, the stock price displayed by the company can be known by the people and the local economy because the company has gone public on the Indonesia Economic Exchange (IDX) at www.idx.co.id. There are several fundamental factors that influence the stock market price in a listed company and as a result the number of stock investors in Indonesia is very small. This cause made it difficult for the community to predict the stock price of banking companies at inconsistent prices. The method to be used in this paper is Linear Regression using Excel tools to perform calculations and SPSS 16.0 as a data mining tool. The research data taken is historical data of banking companies for 3 periods as a whole in the form of excel that has been downloaded from the Yahoo Finance website. The final results are in the form of MAPE charts in 3 years period, and Average error chart in 3 years period.

The Capital Market Authority Effectiveness in the Regulation of Financial Markets perspectives from the financial sector actors

2012 ◽  
Vol 02 (11) ◽  
pp. 15-24
Author(s):  
Charles Kombo Okioga
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Capital Markets ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Financial Regulation ◽  
International Standards ◽  
Market Regulation ◽  
Financial Market Regulation ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
New Business

Capital Market Authority in Kenya is in a development phase in order to be effective in the regulation of the financial markets. The market participants and the regulators are increasingly adopting international standards in order to make the capital markets in sync with those of developed markets. New products are being introduced and new business lines are being established. The Capital Markets Authority (Regulator) is constantly reviewing existing regulations and recommending changes to regulate the market properly. Business lines and activities are being harmonized by market participants to provide a one stop solution in order to meet the financial and securities services needs of the investors. The convergence of business lines and activities of market intermediaries gives rise to the diversity of a firm’s business operations to meet multiplicity of regulations that its activities are subject to. The methodology used in this study was designed to examine the relationship between capital markets Authority effective regulation and the performance of the financial markets. The study used correlation design, the study population consisted of 30 employees in financial institutions regulated by Capital Markets Authority and 80 investors. The study found out that effective financial market regulation has a significant relationship with the financial market performance indicated by (r=0.571, p<0.01) and (r=0.716, p≤0.01, the study recommended a further research on the factors that hinder effective financial regulation by the Capital Markets Authority.

scholarly journals What is a 'Real' Transaction? Infrastructures, relations and Spoofing in High-Frequency Trading

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan Pablo Pardo Guerra
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
High Frequency Trading ◽  
Market Behavior ◽  
Digital Platforms ◽  
Market Participants

Although an old and rare practice, spoofing has re-emerged as a subject ofintense debate within modern financial markets. An activity entailing thefraudulent creation of orders to buy and sell securities with the purposeof manipulating the market, spoofing highlights the multiple and complexmoral valences of contemporary, automated, finance. In this paper, I studyspoofing as an opportunity to understand markets and their relations ofexchange. In particular, by extending Weberian metaphors of markets asmoral and organizational communities, I examine how the courts and marketparticipants distinguish the ‘false’ transactions of spoofing from the‘real’ exchanges of 'normal' market behavior. Combining Marilyn Strathern’stheoretical discussion of the anthropological relation with recentliteratures on infrastructures and markets, I argue that the perceivedreality of transactions is a product of how novel forms of economicknowledge are able to make sense of ‘taken for granted’ behavioral patternswithin digital platforms of market action. The intent that constitutes‘real’ trades is therefore a product of how market participants, economicexperts and the courts interpret the operational underbelly of markets andthe relations that they produce.

MEASURING SHOCK IN FINANCIAL MARKETS

2000 ◽  
Vol 03 (03) ◽  
pp. 347-355 ◽  
Author(s):  
GILLES O. ZUMBACH ◽  
MICHEL M. DACOROGNA ◽  
JØRGEN L. OLSEN ◽  
RICHARD B. OLSEN
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Time Intervals ◽  
Event Scale ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
Richter Scale ◽  
Market Shocks ◽  
Short Time

Analogous to the Richter scale for earthquakes, we introduce the Scale of Market Shocks (SMS), an "event" scale to quantify the size of shocks in financial markets. It is based on price volatilities and computed by integrating volatilities over time horizons ranging from 1 hour to 42 days. The SMS is computed using quality high frequency market data and can be constructed for any market. We compute the SMS for the foreign exchange market. For two major FX rates, we study the relation between SMS peaks and major "world events". We measure also the correlation between the Scale of Market Shocks index and the size of the subsequent price movements and show a high correlation for short time intervals.

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