FIRMS DECISION MAKING PROCESS IN AN EVOLUTIONARY MODEL OF INDUSTRIAL DYNAMICS

2001 ◽  
Vol 04 (01) ◽  
pp. 101-125 ◽  
Author(s):  
WITOLD KWASNICKI
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Bounded Rationality ◽  
Evolutionary Model ◽  
Radical Innovation ◽  
Long Waves ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Industrial Dynamics ◽  
Industry Development ◽  
Unit Costs ◽  
Kondratieff Cycles

Evolutionary model of industrial dynamics, presented in this paper, can be classified as Schumpeterian one. The model describes the behaviour of a number of competing firms producing functionally equivalent products. Each firm tries to improve its position in the industry and in the market by introducing innovations in order to minimize the unit costs of production, maximize the productivity of capital, and maximize the competitiveness of its products on the market. The problem how decisions are made seems to be crucial for relevant modelling of socio-economic processes. The main aim of the simulations presented in the second part of the paper is to show how fluctuations and discontinuities occurs in economic processes due to boundedly rational decisions of competing firms. It is shown how fluctuation of 3–6 years and of 10 years periodicity can occur in an industry development because of firms' bounded rationality. Long waves of development of 50–60 years period (Kondratieff cycles) occur in the model because of radical innovation emergence at the maturity phase of an 'old' technology.

scholarly journals La heurística y la toma de decisiones en empresas de servicios

Oikos ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 18 (38) ◽  
pp. 83
Author(s):  
Germán Rubio Guerrero ◽  
Fernando Adolfo Fierro Celis
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Multivariate Analysis ◽  
Bounded Rationality ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Strategic Decisions ◽  
Rational Models ◽  
Toma De Decisiones

RESUMENEl propósito de la investigación fue estudiar los prejuicios y errores en la toma de decisiones y su relación con los modelos racionales en 16 empresas de servicios seleccionadas a juicio de los investigadores en los departamentos de Tolima y Huila, Colombia. Se trató de un estudio mixto quea través del análisis multidimensional, permitió establecer que en estas organizaciones prevalecen los enfoques intuitivos sobre los formales en sus procesos decisionales. Igualmente se evidenciaroncorrelaciones significativas e independencia entre estas variables.Palabras clave: toma de decisiones, decisiones estratégicas, racionalidad, racionalidad limitada,métodos para la toma de decisiones, incertidumbre.The heuristic and the decision making in services companiesABSTRACTThe purpose of this research was to study the prejudices and mistakes in decision making and your relation with the rational models in 6 enterprises of services selected to judgment of the investigators on the departments of Tolima and Huila, Colombia. It was a combined study which through of multivariate analysis, allowed to establish that in these organizations prevail the intuitive approaches over that the formals in their decision making process. Equally significant correlations between these variables and independence were evident.Keywords: decisions making, strategic decisions, heuristic, rationality, bounded rationality, methodsmaking decisions, uncertainty.Heurística e a toma de decisão em empresas de serviços.RESUMOO objetivo da pesquisa foi estudar os preconceitos e erros na toma de decisões e sua relação com os modelos racionais em 16 empresas de serviços, selecionadas segundo o parecer dos pesquisadores dosdepartamentos de Tolima e Huila, na Colômbia. Este foi um estudo misto que a través da análise multidimensional, permitiu estabelecer que nestas organizações prevalecem os enfoques intuitivos por sobre os formais em seus processos de toma de decisão. Da mesma forma, se evidenciaram correlações significativas e independência entre estas variáveis.Palavras-chave: toma de decisões, decisões estratégicas, racionalidade, racionalidade limitada,métodos de toma de decisão, incerteza.

Street robbery offenders: Shades of rationality and reversal theory perspective

2011 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 427-451 ◽  
Author(s):  
Przemysław Piotrowski
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Rational Choice ◽  
Bounded Rationality ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Reversal Theory ◽  
Street Robbery ◽  
Definition Of

The article intends to draw attention to the selected aspects of motivation and the process of decision making in street robbery offenders. The author distinguishes three types of street robbers: ‘the rational’, the ‘bounded rationality’, and ‘the irrational’ ones. After a short characterisation of the street robbery as a specific type of crime, the article presents the definition of rationality within social sciences, followed by a reflection on the theory of rational choice, along with its applications and limitations. In the next part the reflections revolve around the theory of M.J. Apter, which – in the author’s view – creates encouraging perspective for the analysis of street robbers’ decision making process.

scholarly journals Procedural Analysis of Choice Rules with Applications to Bounded Rationality

2011 ◽  
Vol 101 (2) ◽  
pp. 724-748 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuval Salant
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Bounded Rationality ◽  
Utility Maximization ◽  
Choice Behavior ◽  
Choice Rule ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Process Information ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Recency Effects ◽  
Specific Choice

I study how limited abilities to process information affect choice behavior. I model the decision-making process by an automaton, and measure the complexity of a specific choice rule by the minimal number of states an automaton implementing the rule uses to process information. I establish that any choice rule that is less complicated than utility maximization displays framing effects. I then prove that choice rules that result from an optimal trade-off between maximizing utility and minimizing complexity are history-dependent satisficing procedures that display primacy and recency effects. (JEL D01, D03, D11, D83)

scholarly journals DEVELOPMENT OF THE CLASSIFICATION OF THE CYBER SECURITY AGENTS BOUNDED RATIONALITY

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (56) ◽  
pp. 82-90
Author(s):  
O. Milov ◽  
O. Korol ◽  
V. Khvostenko
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Bounded Rationality ◽  
Cyber Security ◽  
Classification System ◽  
Classification Scheme ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Interacting Agents ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Formal Relations

The subject are the bounded rationality agents of cyber security system. The purpose of this work is is to build a classification system for agents of a cybersecurity system with limited rationality. The tasks: consideration of the decisionmaking process by agents in cybersecurity systems, analysis of various manifestations of bounded rationality of agents of the cybersecurity system, introduction of classification features of bounded rationality, formal presentation of bounded rationality of various types, combining agents with various types of bounded rationality into a whole classification system. Results. Presents approaches to the classification of the concept of rationality in relation to cybersecurity systems. Such types of rationality are considered as strong, semi-strong, weak. Further classification of types of rationality is carried out on the basis of the place of manifestation of rationality. For this, the decision-making process in the cybersecurity system has been considered, formal relations have been introduced, which characterize its various stages. Such types of bounded rationality as informational, methodological, predictive, evaluative and conditional are considered. The ratio of the considered types of rationality is presented. Conclusion: A comparison of various types of bounded rationality, based primarily on its place in the decision-making process, made it possible to propose a classification scheme of bounded rationality characteristic of agents of the cybersecurity system. The result of the formalization of the description of bounded rationality is presented, which can be used as the basis for the development of models of behavior of interacting agents of cybersecurity systems.

scholarly journals Evolutionary model discovery of causal factors behind the socio-agricultural behavior of the Ancestral Pueblo

PLoS ONE ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (12) ◽  
pp. e0239922
Author(s):  
Chathika Gunaratne ◽  
Ivan Garibay
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Social Presence ◽  
Evolutionary Model ◽  
Hierarchical Organization ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Ancestral Pueblo ◽  
Causal Factors ◽  
Causal Explanations ◽  
Seeking Behavior ◽  
Individual Scale

Agent-based modeling of artificial societies allows for the validation and analysis of human-interpretable, causal explanations of human behavior that generate society-scale phenomena. However, parameter calibration is insufficient to conduct data-driven explorations that are adequate in evaluating the importance of causal factors that constitute agent rules that match real-world individual-scale generative behaviors. We introduce evolutionary model discovery, a framework that combines genetic programming and random forest regression to evaluate the importance of a set of causal factors hypothesized to affect the individual’s decision-making process. With evolutionary model discovery, we investigated the farm plot seeking behavior of the Ancestral Pueblo of the Long House Valley simulated in the Artificial Anasazi model. We evaluated the importance of causal factors unconsidered in the original model, which we hypothesized to have affected the decision-making process. Our findings, concur with other archaeological studies on the Ancestral Pueblo communities during the Pueblo II period, which indicate the existence of cross-village polities, hierarchical organization, and dependence on the viability of the agricultural niche. Contrary to the original Artificial Anasazi model, where closeness was the sole factor driving farm plot selection, selection of higher quality land, distancing from failed farm plots, and desire for social presence are found to be more important. Finally, models updated with farm selection strategies designed by incorporating these insights showed significant improvements in accuracy and robustness over the original Artificial Anasazi model.

scholarly journals Bounded Rationality Effect on Firm’s Choices on R&D Investments: A Model for Decision-Making Effectiveness Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-42
Author(s):  
Marcos Ferasso ◽  
Eloisio Andrey Bergamaschi
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Bounded Rationality ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Cognitive Capacity ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Effectiveness Analysis ◽  
Effectiveness Index ◽  
D Investment ◽  
Group Experience

How effective is the taken R&D investment decision, considering the effect of bounded rationality? Guided by this question, it is explored the decision-making process at the group level within the firm. A mathematical model for determining the effectiveness of decision-making based on the group’s experience is proposed. By considering subjective and objective factors, the Decision-making Effectiveness Index – Dei, model was created. To prove theoretical hypotheses and testing the model, a randomly generated dataset was built consisting of 4,000 individuals that were grouped representing 500 hypothetical firms. After performing the simulation, both hypotheses were confirmed, and the model was validated. The main theoretical findings evidenced that the project’s success will depend on decision-makers' cognitive capacity. As a contribution for practitioners, this research highlighted the importance of considering group experience in a self-analysis effectiveness index. Procedures are proposed for comparing the firm effectiveness index with competitors for improving firm decision-making performance.

AAC Decision-Making and Mobile Technology: Points to Ponder

2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 104-111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mary Ann Abbott ◽  
Debby McBride
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Mobile Technology ◽  
Communication System ◽  
Augmentative And Alternative Communication ◽  
Evaluation Process ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Alternative Communication ◽  
Ipod Touch ◽  
Feature Match

The purpose of this article is to outline a decision-making process and highlight which portions of the augmentative and alternative communication (AAC) evaluation process deserve special attention when deciding which features are required for a communication system in order to provide optimal benefit for the user. The clinician then will be able to use a feature-match approach as part of the decision-making process to determine whether mobile technology or a dedicated device is the best choice for communication. The term mobile technology will be used to describe off-the-shelf, commercially available, tablet-style devices like an iPhone®, iPod Touch®, iPad®, and Android® or Windows® tablet.

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