Portfolio Investment with Options Based on Uncertainty Theory

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (03) ◽  
pp. 929-952 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoxia Huang ◽  
Xuting Wang
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Uncertainty Theory ◽  
Equivalent Form ◽  
Uncertain Variable ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Portfolio Investment ◽  
Expected Return ◽  
Important Conclusion ◽  
Exercise Price

In financial markets, there are situations where investors have the future stock prices according to the experts’ evaluations rather than historical data. Thus, the estimations of the stock prices contain much subjective imprecision instead of randomness. This paper discusses a portfolio investment with options in such a kind of situation. Treating the stock index price as an uncertain variable, we build an uncertain mean-chance portfolio model based on uncertainty theory and provide the equivalent form of the model. Furthermore, we make a comparison of the optimal expected return between portfolio investment with options and without options. An important conclusion is reached: The portfolio investment with options produces a no less expected return than that without options. In addition, we make sensitivity analysis and get two vital corresponding results. As an illustration, a numerical example is presented as well. The numerical results reveal that the options should be considered in portfolio investment. And the call option with maximum exercise price is most valuable per premium cost with the same exercise date.

scholarly journals PEMBENTUKAN PORTOFOLIO OPTIMAL TIGA SAHAM LQ45 DAN PERBANDINGAN TERHADAP KINERJA REKSA DANA SAHAM PADA OKTOBER 2016

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 89
Author(s):  
Erick Saputra Hidayat
Keyword(s):  
Mutual Fund ◽  
Sharpe Ratio ◽  
Optimal Portfolio ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Research Use ◽  
Portfolio Investment ◽  
Expected Return ◽  
Holding Period ◽  
Investment Manager ◽  
Better Than

This study attempts to form an optimal portfolio of three stocks derived from LQ45 stock index and compared with the best stock mutual fund made by investment manager according to realized return from September 2015 to September 2016 with monthly holding period. Optimal portfolio is a portfolio that provides the highest level of expected return for a given level of risk or the lowest risk for a given level of expected return in compare to other portfolios. The method used in this research is sharpe ratio.This research use a software named PORTO which is designed for portfolio investment and created by Edwin J. Elton, Martin J. Gruber, and Christopher R. Blake in 1995. The results of this research showed that the optimal portfolio of three stocks is better than stock mutual fund. The optimal portfolio of three stocks consist of 73.391% stock TLKM, 17.993% stock ADRO, and 8.616% stock LSIP. These combinations are expected to give 54.70% of expected return and 29.50% of risk with 1.654237 of sharpe ratio. The stock mutual fund is Treasure Fund Super Maxxi. This mutual fund are expected to give 40.52% of expected return and 75.85% of risk with 0.456417 of sharpe ratio.Keywords: optimal portfolio, mutual fund, sharpe ratio, PORTO, LQ45

scholarly journals ANALYSIS Of CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL ACCORDING TO SHARIAH PRINCIPLE: INDONESIAN EVIDENCE

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (03) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuni Pristiwati Noer Widianingsih
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Capital Asset Pricing Model ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Capital Asset Pricing ◽  
Financial Instruments ◽  
Pricing Model ◽  
Capital Asset ◽  
Expected Return ◽  
Asset Pricing Model

Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is one of the estimated return models developed in conventional financial instruments that have different characteristics from Islamic financial instruments. So the CAPM model cannot be directly applied in Islamic financial instruments, so an estimation model is needed, namely the Shariah Compliant Capital Asset Pricing Model (SCAPM). This study aims to produce a SCAPM model that can be applied to estimate returns in Islamic financial instruments. The data used in the test is a list of sharia companies listed on the IDX, sharia company stock prices, Indonesia Sharia Stock Index (ISSI), yield of sukuk and return of Bank Indonesia Certificates (SBI) for the period 2010 - 2018. Testing is done by comparing expected return with the CAPM and SCAPM models. The SCAPM model used is to eliminate the risk free asset factor and replace it with inflation, zakat, and yield of sukuk. The results of the analysis using graphs and the compare mean test show that the results of the expected return with the SCAPM and CAPM models have no difference, so the SCAPM model can be used as an alternative model of return estimation in Islamic Financial Instruments on the IDX.

ANALISIS DIVERSIFIKASI INTERNASIONAL : PEMBENTUKAN PORTOFOLIO OPTIMAL INDEKS SAHAM DUNIA (Studi Kasus Pada Indeks Saham Aktif Dunia Versi The Wall Street Journal)

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (02) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rony Mahendra ◽  
Erwin Dyah Astawinetu
Keyword(s):  
Wall Street Journal ◽  
Optimal Portfolio ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Wall Street ◽  
Expected Return ◽  
Single Index ◽  
Index Model ◽  
Single Index Model ◽  
Stock Indices ◽  
The Wall Street Journal

The research objective is to establish an optimal portfolio and know the difference between risk and return stock index portfolio candidates and non-candidates. Method used in the preparation of this research portfolio is the single index model, while the samples of this study are active world stock indices version of The Wall Street Journal during the period August 2012 - August 2016 and The Global Dow is used as the benchmark stock index. In establishing the optimal portfolio is used two perspectives: the Rupiah perspective and the U.S. Dollar perspective. The results showed there were three stock indices from the perspective of Rupiah and 8 share index menurutperspektif U.S. Dollar that make up the optimal portfolio, with the cut-of-pointsebesar 0,01393menurut Rupiah perspective and the perspective of 0.0078 US Dollars Based on the perspective of return expectations Rupiah obtained by 0.0258 with a risk of 0.06512. Berdarkan perspective of US Dollars, obtained return expectations at 0.0154 with a risk of 0.0292. From the test results showed that the hypothesis, the return on both perspectives there are significant differences between the index of the candidate, with a non-candidate. Then the risk of stock index, among the candidates, with a non-candidate, the Rupiah perspective there is no difference, but in the perspective of US Dollars, there are significant differences.Keywords: Single Index Model, candidate portfolio, optimal portfolio, expected return, excess return to beta, cut-off-point

scholarly journals The Effect of FOMC Votes on Financial Markets

2019 ◽  
Vol 101 (5) ◽  
pp. 921-932
Author(s):  
Carlos Madeira ◽  
João Madeira
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Open Market ◽  
Federal Open Market Committee ◽  
2008 Financial Crisis ◽  
Treasury Securities ◽  
Stock Market Reaction

This paper shows that since votes of members of the Federal Open Market Committee have been included in press statements, stock prices increase after the announcement when votes are unanimous but fall when dissent (which typically is due to preference for higher interest rates) occurs. This pattern started prior to the 2007–2008 financial crisis. The differences in stock market reaction between unanimity and dissent remain, even controlling for the stance of monetary policy and consecutive dissent. Statement semantics also do not seem to explain the documented effect. We find no differences between unanimity and dissent with respect to impact on market risk and Treasury securities.

scholarly journals Spillovers of US Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policies to Russian Financial Markets

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shigeki Ono
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Federal Funds Rate ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Endogenous Variables ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Monetary Policy Shock

This paper investigates the spillovers of US conventional and unconventional monetary policies to Russian financial markets using VAR-X models. Impulse responses to an exogenous Federal Funds rate shock are assessed for all the endogenous variables. The empirical results show that both conventional and unconventional tightening monetary policy shocks decrease stock prices whereas an easing monetary policy shock does not increase stock prices. Moreover, the results suggest that an unconventional tightening monetary policy shock increases Russian interest rates and decreases oil prices, implying reduced liquidity in international financial markets.

scholarly journals Financial Markets’ Governance, Transparency and Informational Efficiency: Role of IfRS Norms, Auditors and Financial Analysts

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 100
Author(s):  
Imen Lamiri ◽  
Adel Boubaker
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Financial Analysts ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Specific Information ◽  
Informational Efficiency

<p>This article explores the informational role of three essential modern financial markets actors such IFRS norms, the Big”4” and the financial analysts for a panel of emergent and developed countries during the period from 2001 to 2010. We hypothesis that these mechanisms help improving the quality of specific information incorporated into stock prices measured by the stock price synchronicity (SPS). The main result is that both financial analyst’s coverage and IFRS adoption's effects seem to be stronger for emerging than developed markets. The results also show a negative relationship between auditors’ opinion and coefficient of determination (R<sup>2</sup>).</p>

scholarly journals Predicting Stock Market Index Using Hybrid Intelligence Model

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3.15) ◽  
pp. 36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Nadirah Mohd Johari ◽  
Fairuz Husna Muhamad Farid ◽  
Nur Afifah Enara Binti Nasrudin ◽  
Nur Sarah Liyana Bistamam ◽  
Nur Syamira Syamimi Muhammad Shuhaili
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Stock Market Index

Predicting financial market changes is an important issue in time series analysis, receiving an increasing attention due to financial crisis. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model has been one of the most widely used linear models in time series forecasting but ARIMA model cannot capture nonlinear patterns easily. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model applied understanding of volatility depending to the estimation of previous forecast error and current volatility, improving ARIMA model. Support vector machine (SVM) and artificial neural network (ANN) have been successfully applied in solving nonlinear regression estimation problems. This study proposes hybrid methodology that exploits unique strength of GARCH + SVM model, and GARCH + ANN model in forecasting stock index. Real data sets of stock prices FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI were used to examine the forecasting accuracy of the proposed model. The results shows that the proposed hybrid model achieves best forecasting compared to other model.  

scholarly journals Multivariate and Online Prediction of Closing Price Using Kernel Adaptive Filtering

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Shambhavi Mishra ◽  
Tanveer Ahmed ◽  
Vipul Mishra ◽  
Manjit Kaur ◽  
Thomas Martinetz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Adaptive Filtering ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Time Windows ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Traditional Classification ◽  
Regression Problems ◽  
The Common ◽  
Online Prediction

This paper proposes a multivariate and online prediction of stock prices via the paradigm of kernel adaptive filtering (KAF). The prediction of stock prices in traditional classification and regression problems needs independent and batch-oriented nature of training. In this article, we challenge this existing notion of the literature and propose an online kernel adaptive filtering-based approach to predict stock prices. We experiment with ten different KAF algorithms to analyze stocks’ performance and show the efficacy of the work presented here. In addition to this, and in contrast to the current literature, we look at granular level data. The experiments are performed with quotes gathered at the window of one minute, five minutes, ten minutes, fifteen minutes, twenty minutes, thirty minutes, one hour, and one day. These time windows represent some of the common windows frequently used by traders. The proposed framework is tested on 50 different stocks making up the Indian stock index: Nifty-50. The experimental results show that online learning and KAF is not only a good option, but practically speaking, they can be deployed in high-frequency trading as well.

scholarly journals Factor analysis of the Lithuanian equity market indices

2009 ◽  
Vol 50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Svetlana Danilenko
Keyword(s):  
Factor Analysis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Change Dynamics ◽  
Statistical Measures ◽  
Components Method ◽  
Main Components ◽  
Stock Indexes

Statistical measures that can reproduce the state of the stock market and the tendencies of its change dynamics are the stock indexes. Having in mind the more complicated state of the finance system it is important to answer the question of what impacts the fluctuations of the stock prices. The article discusses various factors that impact the fluctuations of the Lithuanian stock index OMXV ; also stock index factor analysis is performed. Factors are determined using the main components method.

scholarly journals FAKTOR PENGARUH RASIO KEUANGAN TERHADAP HARGA SAHAM PERUSAHAAN JAKARTA ISLAMIC INDEX (JII)

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 42-55
Author(s):  
Nadiah Ayu Salsabila ◽  
Titis Miranti
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Profit Margin ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Financial Ratios ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Current Ratio ◽  
Net Profit ◽  
Equity Ratio

Jakarta Islamic Index is a stock index in the IDX that can use as an alternative In Islamic investment. In choosing an investment object in Islamic stocks, it necessary to pay attention to the financial ratios and stock prices of companies. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of financial ratios on stock prices on companies listed on the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII). The type of this research is quantitative. The population of 56 companies registered on the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) for the 2012-2018 period with a sample of 11 companies. The analysis model use panel data regression using Eviews software. The type of data uses secondary data accessed through the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) website. The results showed that earning per share variable has a significant effect on stock prices. While the current ratio, debt to equity ratio, total assets turnover and net profit margin variables have no significant impact on stock prices. Simultaneously variables of current ratio, debt to equity ratio, total assets turnover, net profit margin and earning per share have significant effects on stock prices. The contribution of this research can use as a reference for companies to pay attention to financial ratios that affect stock prices.

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