scholarly journals COVID-19 in Singapore: Another story of success

2020 ◽  
pp. 2050001 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yue Yan ◽  
Hanshuang Pan ◽  
Nian Shao ◽  
Yan Xuan ◽  
Shufen Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Source Term ◽  
Data Fitting ◽  
Isolation Rate ◽  
The Future ◽  
And Control

In this paper, we develop the Fudan-CCDC model by adding a source term to describe the imported infectors. The model is applied to analyze the situation of COVID-19 in East Asia, and then in Singapore. By data fitting, our model reveals that Singapore has a much higher isolation rate and earlier quarantine measures compared to other countries. We conclude that Singapore has been doing extraordinarily well on epidemic prevention and control. Finally we discuss the specific measures in Singapore’s success, and suggest other countries to learn from the Singapore’s style, so as to be well prepared in the future.

Research on Urban Public Security Risk Management under the Background of Tobacco Control

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 911-920
Author(s):  
Suqin Chen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Tobacco Control ◽  
Public Safety ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Living Environment ◽  
Public Security ◽  
Security Risk ◽  
The Future ◽  
Security Risk Management ◽  
And Control

Objectives: Through the reflection on the city’s response to the crisis in the process of tobacco control, a comprehensive and systematic public safety prevention and control system will be built to help cities cope with future risks and challenges. Methods: By using the methodological principle of the unity of subject and object and systematic research, this paper analyzes the problems from the three aspects of subject, object and means, and puts forward three important links of prevention, response and guarantee to construct a large urban public security system, and these three links support each other form a closed loop of risk prevention and control urban public security. Results: Under the background of tobacco control, it is feasible to a reliable whole-cycle management system for urban emergency response and accident rescue, a sound basic public safety guarantee system and a whole-society participation system. Conclusions: Due to the change of global climate conditions and the increase of flow people in the social environment, human beings will face a more complex living environment in the future and may encounter more extreme problems. It can be said that at present and even in the future, global urban public security risk management work is facing a grim situation. WHO research shows that smoking will increase the risk of new crown virus infection among smokers and their surrounding population.China is a big smoking country and in the stage of rapid urbanization. Many citiesare densely populated. Once there is an epidemic infection, the cities will face a severe public security situation. Smoking will not only have an adverse impact on personal health, but also the fires in factories, homes and forests caused by smoking.Since the Chinese government’s tobacco control in 2014, various accidents caused by smoking have caused great adverse effects.Smoking in public places has great hidden dangers of public safety, which leads us to think about the risk management of urban public safety.In the context of tobacco control, we should use scientific thinking and methods to construct a new pattern of urban public security risk management. Another important concept is to implement the risk management concept and the value of prevention first in the management of public affairs, so as to create a situation of risk sharing and coordinated response of the whole society.

scholarly journals A Review of Influencing Factors on Spatial Spread of COVID-19 Based on Geographical Perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (22) ◽  
pp. 12182
Author(s):  
Zhixiang Xie ◽  
Rongqin Zhao ◽  
Minglei Ding ◽  
Zhiqiang Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Natural Environment ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Research Progress ◽  
Driving Mechanism ◽  
Epidemic Spread ◽  
Spatial Spread ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
The Future ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

The COVID-19 outbreak is a manifestation of the contradiction between man and land. Geography plays an important role in epidemic prevention and control with its cross-sectional characteristics and spatial perspective. Based on a systematic review of previous studies, this paper summarizes the research progress on factors influencing the spatial spread of COVID-19 from the research content and method and proposes the main development direction of geography in epidemic prevention and control research in the future. Overall, current studies have explored the factors influencing the epidemic spread on different scales, including global, national, regional and urban. Research methods are mainly composed of quantitative analysis. In addition to the traditional regression analysis and correlation analysis, the spatial lag model, the spatial error model, the geographically weighted regression model and the geographic detector have been widely used. The impact of natural environment and economic and social factors on the epidemic spread is mainly reflected in temperature, humidity, wind speed, air pollutants, population movement, economic development level and medical and health facilities. In the future, new technologies, new methods and new means should be used to reveal the driving mechanism of the epidemic spread in a specific geographical space, which is refined, multi-scale and systematic, with emphasis on exploring the factors influencing the epidemic spread from the perspective of spatial and behavioral interaction, and establish a spatial database platform that combines the information of residents’ cases, the natural environment and economic society. This is of great significance to further play the role of geography in epidemic prevention and control.

scholarly journals AURES – the first Austrian report on antimicrobial resistance – perspective of the human sector

2007 ◽  
Vol 12 (50) ◽  
Author(s):  
R Strauss ◽  
R Muchl ◽  
S Metz-Gercek ◽  
M Sagl ◽  
F Allerberger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Antibiotic Resistance ◽  
Antimicrobial Resistance ◽  
Disease Prevention ◽  
Nosocomial Infections ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Communicable Diseases ◽  
European Centre ◽  
The Future ◽  
And Control

The first epidemiological report on communicable diseases in Europe published by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) identified antibiotic resistance and nosocomial infections as one of the major threats in public health in the future.

scholarly journals Multi-chain Fudan-CCDC model for COVID-19 – a revisit to Singapore’s case

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanshuang Pan ◽  
Nian Shao ◽  
Yue Yan ◽  
Xinyue Luo ◽  
Shufen Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulation ◽  
Penalty Function ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
World Wide ◽  
Data Fitting ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Single Chain ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Different Characteristics ◽  
And Control

AbstractBackgroundCOVID-19 has been impacting on the whole world critically and constantly since late December 2019. Rapidly increasing infections has raised intense world-wide attention. How to model the evolution of COVID-19 effectively and efficiently is of great significance for prevention and control.MethodsWe propose the multi-chain Fudan-CCDC model based on the original single-chain model in [8] to describe the evolution of COVID-19 in Singapore. Multi-chains can be considered as the superposition of several single chains with different characteristics. We identify parameters of models by minimizing the penalty function.ResultsThe numerical simulation results exhibit the multichain model performs well on data fitting. Though unsteady the increments are, they could still fall within the range of ±25% fluctuation from simulation results. It is predicted by multi-chain models that Singapore are experiencing a nonnegligible risk of explosive outbreak, thus stronger measures are urgently needed to contain the epidemic.ConclusionThe multi-chain Fudan-CCDC model provides an effective way to early detect the appearance of imported infectors and super spreaders and forecast a second outbreak. It can also explain the data in those countries where the single-chain model shows deviation from the data.

scholarly journals Multi-chain Fudan-CCDC model for COVID-19 in Iran

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanshuang Pan ◽  
Nian Shao ◽  
Yue Yan ◽  
Xinyue Luo ◽  
Ali Ahmadi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Data Fitting ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Single Chain ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
The World ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Fitting In ◽  
And Control

AbstractBackgroundCOVID-19 has been deeply affecting people’s lives all over the world. It is significant for prevention and control to model the evolution effectively and efficiently.MethodsWe first propose the multi-chain Fudan-CCDC model which is based on the original Fudan-CCDC model to describe the revival of COVID-19 in some countries. Multi-chains are considered as the superposition of distinctive single chains. Parameter identification is carried out by minimizing the penalty function.ResultsFrom results of numerical simulations, the multi-chain model performs well on data fitting and reasonably interprets the revival phenomena. The band of ±25% fluctuation of simulation results could contain most seemly unsteady increments.ConclusionThe multi-chain model has better performance on data fitting in revival situations compared with the single-chain model. It is predicted by the three-chain model with data by Apr 21 that the epidemic curve of Iran would level off on round May 10, and the final cumulative confirmed cases would be around 88820. The upper bound of the 95% confidence interval would be around 96000.

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