scholarly journals Variation of Runoff and Precipitation in the Hekou-Longmen Region of the Yellow River Based on Elasticity Analysis

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erhui Li ◽  
Xingmin Mu ◽  
Guangju Zhao ◽  
Peng Gao ◽  
Hongbo Shao
Keyword(s):  
Abrupt Change ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
The Yellow River ◽  
Runoff Variation ◽  
Runoff Reduction ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Average Annual Runoff

Precipitation is very important to the formation of runoff, and studying of runoff variation and its response to precipitation has practical significance to sustainable utilization of water resources. The study used Mann-Kendall test, anomaly accumulation method, and precipitation elasticity of runoff method to analyze the changes in the relation of precipitation and runoff and the contribution of precipitation to runoff change in the Hekou-Longmen region (from 1957 to 2010), Huangfuchuan watershed (from 1954 to 2010), and Yanhe watershed (from 1952 to 2010) in the middle reaches of the Yellow River. The results showed that runoff appeared a significant decreasing trend(P=0.01)while it was not significant in precipitation in all study areas. In particular, the reductions of average annual runoff in the Hekou-Longmen region, Huangfuchuan watershed, and Yanhe watershed were 72.7%, 87.5%, and 32.2%, respectively, during 2000–2010 compared to the 1950s. There existed two abrupt change points of the runoff in the Hekou-Longmen region and Huangfuchuan watershed, which were detected in 1979 and 1998. But in the Yanhe watershed only one abrupt change point was found in 1996. The precipitation elasticities of runoff were 1.11, 1.09, and 1.26, respectively, and the contributions of precipitation on runoff reduction were 26.4%, 17.9%, and 31.6%, respectively, in the Hekou-Longmen region, Huangfuchuan watershed, and Yanhe watershed.

scholarly journals Attribution Analysis of Seasonal Runoff in the Source Region of the Yellow River Using Seasonal Budyko Hypothesis

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 542
Author(s):  
Guangxing Ji ◽  
Leying Wu ◽  
Liangdong Wang ◽  
Dan Yan ◽  
Zhizhu Lai
Keyword(s):  
Yellow River ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Source Region ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
The Yellow River ◽  
Contribution Rate ◽  
Runoff Variation ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Seasonal Runoff ◽  
Hydrological Station

Previous studies mainly focused on quantifying the contribution rate of different factors on annual runoff variation in the source region of the Yellow River (SRYR), while there are few studies on the seasonal runoff variation. In this study, the monthly water storage and monthly actual evaporation of SRYR were calculated by the monthly ABCD model, and then a seasonal Budyko frame was constructed. Finally, the contribution rate of climatic and anthropic factors on the seasonal runoff variation in Tangnaihai hydrological station were quantitatively calculated. It turned out that: (1) The changing point of runoff data at Tangnaihai hydrological station is 1989. (2) The ABCD monthly hydrological model could well simulate the monthly runoff variation of Tangnaihai hydrological station. (3) Anthropic factors play a major role in runoff change in spring, summer, and winter, while climatic factors play a major role in runoff change in autumn.

scholarly journals Impacts of climate change on runoff in the source area of the Yellow River

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dongying Yi ◽  
Yue Xu ◽  
Nan Wang ◽  
Xiaoyi Ma
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Source Area ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
The Yellow River ◽  
Runoff Simulation ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Average Annual Runoff

The primary approach to realizing long-term runoff prediction involves combining a hydrological model with general circulation model. Previous studies on the Source area of the Yellow River were all based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) data sets with defects in physical mechanisms. In this paper, the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC-CSM2-MR) of CMIP6, which proved to perform well in arid and semi-arid regions, will be used to drive the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and evaluate its applicability in runoff simulation at Tang Nahai Hydrological Station from 2011 to 2019. The occurrence of the extreme value of runoff, its change trend, and the year of abrupt change of runoff in the four Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5) during 2021-2100 were analyzed. The results show that: (1) the runoff simulation evaluation index of SWAT driven by BCC-CSM2-MR in the research area from 2011 to 2019 is excellent, and the runoff simulation in the future is reliable and effective. (2) only the average annual runoff in scenario 5-8.5 (708.5m /s) from 2021 to 2100 was significantly higher than that in 2011-2019. Other scenarios are close to or less than the annual runoff observed. Most importantly, the maximum and minimum annual runoff values under the four scenarios all occurred during 2060-2080, so the attribution analysis of runoff extremum during 2060-2080 is worth further study. (3) it is necessary to evaluate whether the existing reservoirs and hydropower stations in the Yellow River basin can reasonably regulate and utilize the annual runoff under scenario 5-8.5.

scholarly journals Recent changes of water discharge and sediment load in the Yellow River basin, China

2010 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 541-561 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chiyuan Miao ◽  
Jinren Ni ◽  
Alistair G.L. Borthwick
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Abrupt Change ◽  
Sediment Load ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
Water Discharge ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Yellow River Basin ◽  
Test Method ◽  
The Yellow River ◽  
The Yellow River Basin

The Yellow River basin contributes approximately 6% of the sediment load from all river systems globally, and the annual runoff directly supports 12% of the Chinese population. As a result, describing and understanding recent variations of water discharge and sediment load under global change scenarios are of considerable importance. The present study considers the annual hydrologic series of the water discharge and sediment load of the Yellow River basin obtained from 15 gauging stations (10 mainstream, 5 tributaries). The Mann-Kendall test method was adopted to detect both gradual and abrupt change of hydrological series since the 1950s. With the exception of the area draining to the Upper Tangnaihai station, results indicate that both water discharge and sediment load have decreased significantly (p<0.05). The declining trend is greater with distance downstream, and drainage area has a significant positive effect on the rate of decline. It is suggested that the abrupt change of the water discharge from the late 1980s to the early 1990s arose from human extraction, and that the abrupt change in sediment load was linked to disturbance from reservoir construction.

scholarly journals Response of LUCC on Runoff Generation Process in Middle Yellow River Basin: The Gushanchuan Basin

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 1237 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caihong Hu ◽  
Li Zhang ◽  
Qiang Wu ◽  
Shan-e-hyder Soomro ◽  
Shengqi Jian
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
Generation Process ◽  
Runoff Generation ◽  
Contribution Rate ◽  
Runoff Reduction ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Significant Downward Trend

Runoff reduction in most river basins in China has become a hotpot in recent years. The Gushanchuan river, a primary tributary of the middle Yellow river, Northern China, showed a significant downward trend in the last century. Little is known regarding the relative contributions of changing environment to the observed hydrological trends and response on the runoff generation process in its watershed. On the basis of observed hydrological and meteorological data from 1965–2010, the Mann-Kendall trend test and climate elasticity method were used to distinguish the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff in the Gushanchuan basin. The results indicate that the runoff in the Gushanchuan Basin has experienced significant declines as large as 77% from 1965 to 2010, and a mutation point occurred around 1997; the contribution rate of climate change to runoff change is 12.9–15.1%, and the contribution rate of human activities to runoff change is 84.9–87.1%. Then we divided long-term data sequence into two stages around the mutation point, and analyzed runoff generation mechanisms based on land use and cover changes (LUCC). We found that the floods in the Gushanchuan Basin were still dominated by Excess-infiltration runoff, but the proportion in 1965–1997 and 1998–2010 decreased gradually (68.46% and 45.83% in turn). The proportion of Excess-storage runoff and Mixed runoff has increased, which means that the runoff is made up of more runoff components. The variation law of the LUCC indicates that the forest area increased by 49.61%, the confluence time increased by 50.42%, and the water storage capacity of the watershed increased by 30.35%.

scholarly journals Recent shrinkage and hydrological response of Hailuogou glacier, a monsoon temperate glacier on the east slope of Mount Gongga, China

2010 ◽  
Vol 56 (196) ◽  
pp. 215-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiao Liu ◽  
Shiyin Liu ◽  
Yong Zhang ◽  
Xin Wang ◽  
Yingsong Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Aerial Photographs ◽  
Flow Measurements ◽  
Runoff Variation ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Weather Stations ◽  
Local Water ◽  
Total Discharge ◽  
Daily Total

AbstractTemperate glaciers are more sensitive to climate changes than polar or continental glaciers, and can drive remarkable runoff variation in local water catchments. Here we present recent glacier shrinkage and runoff change for Hailuogou glacier, a typical monsoon temperate glacier on the east slope of Mount Gongga (Minya Konga), China. The surface area of Hailuogou glacier has decreased by 3.5% (0.92 km2) between 1966 (aerial photographs) and 2007 (ASTER images). Flow measurements at a stream gauge about 500 m down-glacier commencing in 1994 display a remarkable increase in annual runoff (mostly during July–September) since 1999. Annual runoff over the same period in a nonglacierized but forested subcatchment (9.17 km2) did not experience significant change. By separating the daily rainfall component from the daily total discharge, monthly catchment water-balance series were calculated for the period 1994–2005, which shows an increasing trend of glacier storage loss. We concluded that air-temperature rise (with a trend of +0.2°C (10 a)−1 between 1988 and 2005, recorded at nearby weather stations) has had an increased effect on glacier mass loss and river runoff change during the past 20 years.

scholarly journals SWAT-Based Runoff Simulation and Runoff Responses to Climate Change in the Headwaters of the Yellow River, China

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 509
Author(s):  
Jingwen Wu ◽  
Haiyan Zheng ◽  
Yang Xi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
The Yellow River ◽  
Runoff Simulation ◽  
Alpine Regions ◽  
Slight Upward Trend ◽  
The Impact

Runoff in snowy alpine regions is sensitive to climate change in the context of global warming. Exploring the impact of climate change on the runoff in these regions is critical to understand the dynamics of the water cycle and for the improvement of water resources management. In this study, we analyzed the long-term variations in annual runoff in the headwaters region of the Yellow River (HRYR) (a typical snowy mountain region) during the period of 1956–2012. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with different elevation bands was employed to assess the performance of monthly runoff simulations, and then to evaluate the impacts of climate change on runoff. The results show that the observed runoff for the hydrological stations at lower relative elevations (i.e., Maqu and Tangnaihai stations) had a downward trend, with rates of 1.91 and 1.55 mm/10 years, while a slight upward trend with a rate of 0.26 mm/10 years was observed for the hydrological station at higher elevation (i.e., Huangheyan station). We also found that the inclusion of five elevation bands could lead to more accurate runoff estimates as compared to simulation without elevation bands at monthly time steps. In addition, the dominant cause of the runoff decline across the whole HRYR was precipitation (which explained 64.2% of the decrease), rather than temperature (25.93%).

scholarly journals Study on the Variation of Annual Runoff and Influencing Factors in Kuye River during the Past 60 Years

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 72
Author(s):  
Zhihua MA ◽  
Qiaoling GUO ◽  
Ning SU
Keyword(s):  
Human Activities ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
High Strength ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Runoff Variation ◽  
Runoff Reduction ◽  
Filter Methods ◽  
Runoff Series ◽  
Concentration Degree ◽  
The Impact

In this study, observed runoff series from a hydro-station respectively named Wenjiachuan station in the Kuye river was manipulated for monthly annual variation analysis assisted by using nonuniformity coefficient and concentration degree(period).the cumulative filter methods was employed to detect the trend of inner-annual runoff. Based on meteorological and hydrological data of the Wenjiachuan hydrologic station from 1955 to 2015, the paper studied the variation tendency, the abrupt and periodic changes of annual runoff using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test and accumulation anomaly curve. Double mass curve was used to estimate the impact of human activities and climate change on the runoff variation. The curve of seasonal runoff distribution for Wenjiachuan station appeared two peak patterns. The annual runoff declined markedly, the effect of climate on runoff decreased, the influence of human activities on runoff gradually increased the human activities are the primary factors leading to the reduction of annual runoff. In human activities, large-scale water and soil conservation measures and high-strength coal mining have produced significant effects on the annual runoff reduction in Kuye River.

scholarly journals Multi-time Scale Co-integration Forecast of Annual Runoff in the Source Area of the Yellow River

Authorea ◽  
2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinping Zhang ◽  
Hongbin Li ◽  
Qiting Zuo ◽  
Hongyuan Fang ◽  
Yang Hong
Keyword(s):  
Time Scale ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
Source Area ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
The Yellow River

scholarly journals Annual runoff prediction in the source area of the Yellow River based on structure change co-integration theory

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (5) ◽  
pp. 1664-1677
Author(s):  
Jinping Zhang ◽  
Hongbin Li ◽  
Bin Sun ◽  
Hongyuan Fang
Keyword(s):  
Structural Change ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
Source Area ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Structure Change ◽  
Integration Theory ◽  
The Yellow River ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Runoff Prediction

Abstract Aiming at revealing the co-integration under structural change in the long-run relationship between rainfall and runoff time series at Tangnaihai Hydrological Station in the source area of the Yellow River, and improving the accuracy of annual runoff prediction, co-integration theory and structure change co-integration theory are introduced respectively. The error correction models of rainfall and runoff in these two cases are constructed. The results show that reservoir construction and climate change can cause structure change in the long-run relationship between rainfall and runoff in the source area of the Yellow River. The breakpoints appeared in 1989 and 2002, in which the breakpoint in 1989 is mainly effected by reservoir construction while in 2002 it is effected by rainfall changes. Meanwhile, the error correction model with structural change shows that the impact of rainfall on runoff decreases from 1989 but increases from 2002. Finally, for the prediction of runoff in the next five years, the mean absolute percentage errors of the prediction models without and with breakpoints are 11.04% and 7.08% respectively, and this shows that the error correction model with structural change has the higher runoff prediction accuracy.

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