scholarly journals Predictive Value of a Noninvasive Serological Hepatic Fibrosis Scoring System in Cirrhosis Combined with Oesophageal Varices

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Feiyue Zhang ◽  
Tong Liu ◽  
Pan Gao ◽  
Sujuan Fei

Objective. In recent years, the noninvasive serological scoring system has become a research hotspot in predicting hepatic fibrosis and has achieved good results. However, it has rarely been applied to the prediction of oesophageal varices. The aim of the study was to evaluate the predictive value of the four following scoring systems in cirrhosis combined with oesophageal varices: aspartate and platelet ratio index (APRI), aspartate aminotransferase-alanine aminotransferase ratio (AAR), FIB-4, and S index. Methods. A total of 153 patients with cirrhosis were categorized into groups with or without oesophageal varices. In addition, cirrhosis patients with oesophageal varices were further divided into mild, moderate, and severe grades. The rank sum test was used to compare the significant differences of APRI, AAR, FIB-4, and S index between the two groups of cirrhosis patients with or without oesophageal varices. A ROC curve was generated to compare the area under the curve of the three groups and to obtain the corresponding optimal prediction value. Moreover, multivariate logistic regression analysis was employed to assess the predictive factors for cirrhosis combined with oesophageal varices. Results. 44 patients had no oesophageal varices and 108 patients had oesophageal varices. Of the 108 patients with oesophageal varices, 43 were mild, 32 were moderate, and 33 were severe. The rank sum test indicated that the APRI, FIB-4, and S index were statistically significant between two groups (P < 0.05), while no significant difference was detected in terms of AAR between the two groups (P > 0.05). In addition, all four scoring systems were statistically significant between nonoesophageal varices group and severe oesophageal varices group (P < 0.05). In the ROC curve of oesophageal varices, the AUC values of APRI, FIB-4, and S index for predicting oesophageal varices were 0.681, 0642, and 0.673, respectively. However, in the ROC curve of severe oesophageal varices, the AUC values of APRI, AAR, FIB-4, and S index were 0.729, 0.648, 0.673, and 0.695, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that APRI and FIB-4 were predictors of disease progression (P < 0.05). Conclusion. AAR harboured a poor predictive value for oesophageal varices, APRI can be used as a reference index for the prediction of severe oesophageal varices, and the S index harboured potential value in predicting the degree of progression of cirrhosis.

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuran Shao ◽  
Chunyan Luo ◽  
Kaiyu Zhou ◽  
Yimin Hua ◽  
Mei Wu ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance prediction is one pivotal topic of interests in Kawasaki disease (KD) since those patients with KD resistant to IVIG might improve of an early-intensified therapy. Data regarding predictive value of procalcitonin (PCT) for IVIG resistance, particularly for repeated IVIG resistance in KD was limited. This study aimed to testify the predictive validity of PCT for both initial and repeated IVIG resistance in KD. Methods A total of 530 KD patients were prospectively recruited between January 2015 and March 2019. The clinical and laboratory data were compared between IVIG-responsive and IVIG-resistant groups. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was applied to determine the association between PCT and IVIG resistance. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves analysis was further performed to assess the validity of PCT in predicting both initial and repeated IVIG resistance. Results The serum PCT level was significantly higher in initial IVIG-resistance group compared with IVIG-response group (p = 0.009), as well as between repeated IVIG responders and nonresponders (p = 0.017). The best PCT cutoff value for initial and repeated IVIG resistance prediction was 1.48 ng/ml and 2.88 ng/ml, respectively. The corresponding sensitivity was 53.9 and 51.4%, while the specificity were 71.8 and 73.2%, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression analysis failed to identify serum PCT level as an independent predictive factor for both initial and repeated IVIG resistance in KD. Conclusions Serum PCT levels were significantly higher in IVIG nonresponders, but PCT may not be suitable as a single marker to accurately predict both initial and repeated IVIG resistance in KD.


2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ben Meng ◽  
Jia Song ◽  
Lisheng Liu ◽  
Longlan Chen ◽  
Xiaoliang Chen

AbstractTo utilize single-photon emission computed tomography/computed tomography (SPECT/CT) scanning to investigate the usefulness of nerve root compression (NRC) and radioactive cold zone lesions (RCZLs) for predicting poor therapeutic efficacy of strontium-89 chloride (Sr-89) in patients with bone metastasis. Patients with bone metastatic neoplasms who had undergone baseline bone SPECT/CT scanning before Sr-89 therapy (148 MBq Sr-89 chloride by an intravenous injection for each patient) between July 2011 and July 2018 were included. Bone SPECT/CT images were assessed by two readers independently. Associations between imaging features and therapeutic efficacy were obtained via multivariate logistic regression analysis. Of 231 patients analyzed, 50 (21.6%) had NRC at baseline. Of 31 patients who experienced poor therapeutic efficacy, 29 (93.5%) had NRC. In multivariate logistic regression analysis baseline NRC independently predicted poor therapeutic efficacy. The sensitivity of NRC for predicting poor therapeutic efficacy was 93.5%, specificity was 89.5%, positive predictive value was 58.0%, and negative predictive value was 98.9%. RCZLs were detected in17 patients (7.4%), of whom 14 experienced poor Sr-89 therapeutic efficacy. The sensitivity of the presence of RCZLs for predicting poor therapeutic efficacy was 45.2%, specificity was 98.5%, positive predictive value was 82.4%, and negative predictive value was 92.1%. After adjusting for age, bone metabolism and lesion type, the significant independent predictors of poor Sr-89 therapeutic efficacy were presence of NRC (p < 0.001) and RCZL (p = 0.001). NRC and RCZL on baseline bone SPECT/CT are reliable independent predictors of poor Sr-89 therapeutic efficacy in patients with bone metastasis. These associations may facilitate the administration of more effective therapeutic interventions.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 ◽  
pp. 175883592110232
Author(s):  
Mengyuan Yang ◽  
Dan Li ◽  
Wu Jiang ◽  
Lizhen Zhu ◽  
Haixing Ju ◽  
...  

Background: This multicenter study aimed to reveal the genetic spectrum of colorectal cancer (CRC) with deficient mismatch repair (dMMR) and build a screening model for Lynch syndrome (LS). Methods: Through the immunohistochemical (IHC) screening of mismatch repair protein results in postoperative CRC patients, 311 dMMR cases, whose germline and somatic variants were detected using the ColonCore panel, were collected. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed on the clinical characteristics of these dMMR individuals, and a clinical nomogram, incorporating statistically significant factors identified using multivariate logistic regression analysis, was constructed to predict the probability of LS. The model was validated externally by an independent cohort. Results: In total, 311 CRC patients with IHC dMMR included 95 identified MMR germline variant (LS) cases and 216 cases without pathogenic or likely pathogenic variants in MMR genes (non-Lynch-associated dMMR). Of the 95 individuals, approximately 51.6%, 28.4%, 14.7%, and 5.3% cases carried germline MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, and PMS2 pathogenic or likely pathogenic variants, respectively. A novel nomogram was then built to predict the probability of LS for CRC patients with dMMR intuitively. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve informed that this nomogram-based screening model could identify LS with a higher specificity and sensitivity with an area under curve (AUC) of 0.87 than current screening criteria based on family history. In the external validation cohort, the AUC of the ROC curve reached 0.804, inferring the screening model’s universal applicability. We recommend that dMMR-CRC patients with a probability of LS greater than 0.435 should receive a further germline sequencing. Conclusion: This novel screening model based on the clinical characteristic differences between LS and non-Lynch-associated dMMR may assist clinicians to preliminarily screen LS and refer susceptible patients to experienced specialists.


2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Boqian Zhu ◽  
Jiantong Hou ◽  
Yaoyao Gong ◽  
Gaoliang Yan ◽  
Qingjie Wang ◽  
...  

Background and Aims. CIN is a major and serious complication following PCI in patients with ACS. It is unclear whether a higher serum ferritin level is associated with an increased risk of CIN in high-risk patients. Thus, we conducted this study to assess the predictive value of SF for the risk of CIN after PCI.Methods. We prospectively examined SF levels in 548 patients with ACS before undergoing PCI. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the independent risk factors for CIN. The ROC analysis was performed to evaluate the predictive value of SF for CIN.Results. CIN occurred in 96 patients. Baseline SF was higher in patients who developed CIN compared to those who did not (257.05±93.98versus211.67±106.65;P<0.001). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that SF was an independent predictor of CIN (OR, 1.008; 95% CI, 1.003–1.013;P=0.002). The area under ROC curve for SF was 0.629, and SF > 180.9 μg/L predicted CIN with sensitivity of 80.2% and specificity of 41.4%.Conclusion. Our data show that a higher SF level was significantly associated with an increased risk of CIN after PCI.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takahisa Handa ◽  
Akinobu Nakamura ◽  
Aika Miya ◽  
Hiroshi Nomoto ◽  
Hiraku Kameda ◽  
...  

Abstract BackgroundThis study aimed to explore predictive factors of time below target glucose range (TBR) ≥ 1% among patients’ characteristics and glycemic variability (GV) indices using continuous glucose monitoring data in elderly patients with type 2 diabetes.MethodsWe conducted a prospective observational study on 179 (71 female) Japanese outpatients with type 2 diabetes aged ≥ 65 years. The characteristics of the participants with TBR ≥ 1% were evaluated by multivariate logistic regression analysis. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses of GV indices, comprising coefficient of variation (CV), standard deviation, and mean amplitude of glycemic excursions, were performed to identify the optimal index for the identification of patients with TBR ≥ 1%.ResultsIn the multivariate logistic regression analysis, none of the clinical characteristics, including HbA1c and C-peptide index, were independent markers for TBR ≥ 1%, while all three GV indices showed significant associations with TBR ≥ 1%. Among the three GV indices, CV showed the best performance based on the area under the curve in the ROC curve analyses.ConclusionsAmong elderly patients with type 2 diabetes, CV reflected TBR ≥ 1% most appropriately among the GV indices examined.Trial registration: UMIN-CTR: UMIN000029993. Registered 16 November 2017


2021 ◽  
Vol 17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhenlei Chen ◽  
Rongrong Zhang ◽  
Yanping Wu ◽  
Qing Fu ◽  
Xinyue Qin

Objective: The study aimed to investigate the relationship between serum interleukin-33 (IL-33) concentrations and poststroke depression (PSD) in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS). Methods: Serum IL-33 concentrations were determined using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Patients were assigned to the PSD group after a six-month follow-up if their score on the 17- item Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression was ≥7 or to the non-PSD group if their score was <7. IL-33 was used to predict the risk of PSD using multivariate logistic regression analysis, while a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to analyze the accuracy of PSD prediction. In addition, the modified Rankin scale (mRS) was used for follow-up scoring six months after disease onset. Results: A total of 151 AIS patients and 40 healthy controls were included in this study. ROC curve results showed that the area under the curve was 0.684 (95% confidence interval: 0.594-0.774,Ρ=0.001) for IL-33 as a predictor of PSD. When the IL-33 concentration was ≤71.85 ng/L, prediction sensitivity and specificity were 77.5% and 57.3%, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that IL-33 concentration of ≤71.85 ng/L was an independent predictor of PSD (95% CI: 1.129-7.515, P=0.027). The follow-up mRS data showed that serum IL-33 is a protective prognosis factor in patients with AIS (95% CI: 0.954-0.997, P=0.024). Conclusions: Serum IL-33 is an independent predictor of PSD and a protective prognosis factor in patients with AIS.


2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Atsushi Kotera

Abstract Background Postanesthetic shivering is an unpleasant adverse event in surgical patients. A nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug has been reported to be useful in preventing postanesthetic shivering in several previous studies. The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of flurbiprofen axetil being a prodrug of a nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug for preventing postanesthetic shivering in patients undergoing gynecologic laparotomy surgeries. Method This study is a retrospective observational study. I collected data from patients undergoing gynecologic laparotomy surgeries performed between October 1, 2019, and September 30, 2020, at Kumamoto City Hospital. All the patients were managed with general anesthesia with or without epidural analgesia. The administration of intravenous 50 mg flurbiprofen axetil for postoperative pain control at the end of the surgery was left to the individual anesthesiologist. The patients were divided into two groups: those who had received intravenous flurbiprofen axetil (flurbiprofen group) and those who had not received intravenous flurbiprofen axetil (non-flurbiprofen group), and I compared the frequency of postanesthetic shivering between the two groups. Additionally, the factors presumably associated with postanesthetic shivering were collected from the medical charts. Intergroup differences were assessed with the χ2 test with Yates’ correlation for continuity category variables. The Student’s t test was used to test for differences in continuous variables. Furthermore, a multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to elucidate the relationship between the administration of flurbiprofen axetil and the incidence of PAS. Results I retrospectively examined the cases of 141 patients aged 49 ± 13 (range 21-84) years old. The overall postanesthetic shivering rate was 21.3% (30 of the 141 patients). The frequency of postanesthetic shivering in the flurbiprofen group (n = 31) was 6.5%, which was significantly lower than that in the non-flurbiprofen group (n = 110), 25.5% (p value = 0.022). A multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that administration of flurbiprofen axetil was independently associated with a reduced incidence of postanesthetic shivering (odds ratio 0.12; 95% confidence interval, 0.02-0.66, p value = 0.015). Conclusions My result suggests that intraoperative 50 mg flurbiprofen axetil administration for postoperative pain control is useful to prevent postanesthetic shivering in patients undergoing gynecologic laparotomy surgeries.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Takahisa Handa ◽  
Akinobu Nakamura ◽  
Aika Miya ◽  
Hiroshi Nomoto ◽  
Hiraku Kameda ◽  
...  

Abstract Background This study aimed to explore predictive factors of time below target glucose range (TBR) ≥ 1% among patients’ characteristics and glycemic variability (GV) indices using continuous glucose monitoring data in elderly patients with type 2 diabetes. Methods We conducted a prospective observational study on 179 (71 female) Japanese outpatients with type 2 diabetes aged ≥ 65 years. The characteristics of the participants with TBR ≥ 1% were evaluated by multivariate logistic regression analysis. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses of GV indices, comprising coefficient of variation (CV), standard deviation, and mean amplitude of glycemic excursions, were performed to identify the optimal index for the identification of patients with TBR ≥ 1%. Results In the multivariate logistic regression analysis, none of the clinical characteristics, including HbA1c and C-peptide index, were independent markers for TBR ≥ 1%, while all three GV indices showed significant associations with TBR ≥ 1%. Among the three GV indices, CV showed the best performance based on the area under the curve in the ROC curve analyses. Conclusions Among elderly patients with type 2 diabetes, CV reflected TBR ≥ 1% most appropriately among the GV indices examined. Trial registration UMIN-CTR: UMIN000029993. Registered 16 November 2017


2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chen Dong ◽  
Minhui Zhu ◽  
Luguang Huang ◽  
Wei Liu ◽  
Hengxin Liu ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Tissue expansion is used for scar reconstruction owing to its excellent clinical outcomes; however, the complications that emerge from tissue expansion hinder repair. Infection is considered a major complication of tissue expansion. This study aimed to analyze the perioperative risk factors for expander infection. Methods A large, retrospective, single-institution observational study was carried out over a 10-year period. The study enrolled consecutive patients who had undergone tissue expansion for scar reconstruction. Demographics, etiological data, expander-related characteristics and postoperative infection were assessed. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were performed to identify risk factors for expander infection. In addition, we conducted a sensitivity analysis for treatment failure caused by infection as an outcome. Results A total of 2374 expanders and 148 cases of expander infection were assessed. Treatment failure caused by infection occurred in 14 expanders. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified that disease duration of ≤1 year (odds ratio (OR), 2.07; p &lt; 0.001), larger volume of expander (200–400 ml vs &lt;200 ml; OR, 1.74; p = 0.032; &gt;400 ml vs &lt;200 ml; OR, 1.76; p = 0.049), limb location (OR, 2.22; p = 0.023) and hematoma evacuation (OR, 2.17; p = 0.049) were associated with a high likelihood of expander infection. Disease duration of ≤1 year (OR, 3.88; p = 0.015) and hematoma evacuation (OR, 10.35; p = 0.001) were so related to high risk of treatment failure. Conclusions The rate of expander infection in patients undergoing scar reconstruction was 6.2%. Disease duration of &lt;1 year, expander volume of &gt;200 ml, limb location and postoperative hematoma evacuation were independent risk factors for expander infection.


2021 ◽  
Vol 80 (2) ◽  
pp. 673-681
Author(s):  
Jin Wang ◽  
Xiaojuan Guo ◽  
Wenhui Lu ◽  
Jie Liu ◽  
Hong Zhang ◽  
...  

Background: Vascular factors and mitochondria dysfunction contribute to the pathogenesis of Alzheimer’s disease (AD). DL-3-n-butylphthalide (NBP) has an effect in protecting mitochondria and improving microcirculation. Objective: The aim was to investigate the effect of donepezil combined NBP therapy in patients with mild-moderate AD. Methods: It was a prospective cohort study. 92 mild-moderate AD patients were classified into the donepezil alone group (n = 43) or the donepezil combined NBP group (n = 49) for 48 weeks. All patients were evaluated with Alzheimer’s Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive subscale (ADAS-cog), Clinician’s Interview-Based Impression of Change plus caregiver input (CIBIC-plus), Alzheimer’s Disease Cooperative Study-Activities of Daily Living (ADCS-ADL), and Neuropsychiatric Inventory (NPI) every 12 weeks. All patients were monitored for adverse events (AEs). The efficacy was analyzed using multivariate logistic regression analysis. Results: The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the changes of ADAS-cog score (OR = 2.778, 95% CI: [1.087, 7. 100], p = 0.033) and ADCS-ADL score (OR = 2.733, 95% CI: [1.002, 7.459], p = 0.049) had significant difference between donepezil alone group and donepezil combined NBP group, while the changes of NPI (OR = 1.145, 95% CI: [0.463, 2.829], p = 0.769), MMSE (OR = 1.563, 95% CI: [0.615, 3.971], p = 0.348) and CIBIC-plus (OR = 2.593, 95% CI: [0.696, 9.685], p = 0.156) had no significant difference. The occurrence of AEs was similar in the two groups. Conclusion: Over the 48-week treatment period, donepezil combined NBP group had slower cognitive decline and better activities of daily living in patients with mild to moderate AD. These indicated that the multi-target therapeutic effect of NBP may be a new choice for AD treatment.


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