scholarly journals Inability to Walk Predicts Death among Adult Patients in Hospitals in Malawi

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-5
Author(s):  
Raphael Kazidule Kayambankadzanja ◽  
Carl Otto Schell ◽  
Grace Nsanjama ◽  
Isaac Mbingwani ◽  
Samson Kwazizira Mndolo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Value ◽  
Vital Signs ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Early Warning Score ◽  
Walking Ability ◽  
Patient Death ◽  
Predictive Values ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Close Observation ◽  
National Early Warning Score

Objective. Vital signs are often used in triage, but some may be difficult to assess in low-resource settings. A patient’s ability to walk is a simple and rapid sign that requires no equipment or expertise. This study aimed to determine the predictive performance for death of an inability to walk among hospitalized Malawian adults and to compare its predictive value with the vital signs-based National Early Warning Score (NEWS). Methods. It is a prospective cohort study of adult in-patients on selected days in two hospitals in Malawi. Patients were asked to walk five steps with close observation and their vital signs were assessed. Sensitivities, specificities, and predictive values for in-patient death of an inability to walk were calculated and an inability to walk was compared with NEWS. Results. Four-hundred and forty-three of the 1094 participants (40.5%) were unable to walk independently. In this group, 70 (15.8 %) died in-hospital compared to 16 (2.5%) among those who could walk: OR 7.4 (95% CI 4.3-13.0 p<0.001). Inability to walk had a sensitivity for death of 81.4%, specificity of 63.0%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 15.8%, and negative predictive value (NPV) of 97.5%. NEWS>6 had sensitivity 70.9%, specificity 70.6%, PPV 17.1%, and NPV 96.6%. An inability to walk had a fair concordance with NEWS>6 (kappa 0.21). Conclusion. Inability to walk predicted mortality as well as NEWS among hospitalized adults in Malawi. Patients who were able to walk had a low risk of death. Walking ability could be considered an additional vital sign and may be useful for triage.

scholarly journals Copeptin combined with National Early Warning Score for predicting survival in elderly patients with acute and critical illness

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fan Wang ◽  
Wen An ◽  
Xinchao Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Critical Illness ◽  
Observational Study ◽  
Elderly Patients ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Early Warning Score ◽  
Survival Prediction ◽  
Vasopressin Release ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
National Early Warning Score

Abstract Purpose Copeptin, reflecting vasopressin release, as well as the National Early Warning Score (NEWS), reflecting the severity of critical illness, might qualify for survival prediction in elderly patients with acute and critical illness. This prospective observational study aimed at assessing the predictive value of copeptin combined with NEWS on the prognosis of elderly patients with acute and critical illness. Methods We analyzed serum copeptin levels and the NEWS at admission to the emergency department (ED) in a prospective, single-center and observational study comprising 205 elderly patients with acute and critical illness. Death within 30 days after admission to the ED was the primary end point. Results The serum copeptin levels and the NEWS in the non-survivor patients group were higher than those in the survivor group [30.35 (14.20, 38.91) vs 17.53 (13.01, 25.20), P = 0.001 and 9.0 (7.0–10.0) vs 7.0 (6.0–8.0), P = 0.001]. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that Copeptin, NEWS and copeptin combined with NEWS were all independent risk factors for 30-day mortality in elderly patients with acute and critical illness. Copeptin, NEWS and copeptin combined with NEWS all performed well in predicting 30-day survival, with area under the ROC curve (AUC) values of 0.766 (95%CI, 0.702–0.822), 0.797 (95%CI, 0.744–0.877) and 0.854 (95%CI, 0.798–0.899) respectively. Using the Z test to compare the areas under the above three curves, copeptin combined with NEWS showed a higher predictive value for 30-day survival (P < 0.05). As we calculated, the optimal cut-off value of copeptin and NEWS using the Youden index were 19.78 pg/ml and 8.5 points respectively. Risk stratification analysis showed that patients with both higher copeptin levels and higher NEWS had the highest risk of death. Conclusions Copeptin combined with NEWS have a stronger predictive power on the prognosis of elderly patients with acute and critical illness, comparing to either factor individually.

Glucose as an additional parameter to National Early Warning Score (NEWS) in prehospital setting enhances identification of patients at risk of death: an observational cohort study

2020 ◽  
pp. emermed-2018-208309
Author(s):  
Hanna Vihonen ◽  
Mitja Lääperi ◽  
Markku Kuisma ◽  
Jussi Pirneskoski ◽  
Jouni Nurmi
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Blood Glucose ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Prehospital Setting ◽  
Early Warning Score ◽  
Calibration Model ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Patients At Risk ◽  
National Early Warning Score

BackgroundTo determine if prehospital blood glucose could be added to National Early Warning Score (NEWS) for improved identification of risk of short-term mortality.MethodsRetrospective observational study (2008–2015) of adult patients seen by emergency medical services in Helsinki metropolitan area for whom all variables for calculation of NEWS and a blood glucose value were available. Survival of 24 hours and 30 days were determined. The NEWS parameters and glucose were tested by multivariate logistic regression model. Based on ORs we formed NEWSgluc model with hypoglycaemia (≤3.0 mmol/L) 3, normoglycaemia 0 and hyperglycaemia (≥11.1 mmol/L) 1 points. The scores from NEWS and NEWSgluc were compared using discrimination (area under the curve), calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test), likelihood ratio tests and reclassification (continuous net reclassification index (cNRI)).ResultsData of 27 141 patients were included in the study. Multivariable regression model for NEWSgluc parameters revealed a strong association with glucose disturbances and 24-hour and 30-day mortality. Likelihood ratios (LRs) for mortality at 24 hours using a cut-off point of 15 were for NEWSgluc: LR+ 17.78 and LR− 0.96 and for NEWS: LR+ 13.50 and LR− 0.92. Results were similar at 30 days. Risks per score point estimation and calibration model showed glucose added benefit to NEWS at 24 hours and at 30 days. Although areas under the curve were similar, reclassification test (cNRI) showed overall improvement of classification of survivors and non-survivors at 24 days and 30 days with NEWSgluc.ConclusionsIncluding glucose in NEWS in the prehospital setting seems to improve identification of patients at risk of death.

scholarly journals Impact of the level of sickness on higher mortality in emergency medical admissions to hospital at weekends

2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 236-242 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammed Mohammed ◽  
Muhammad Faisal ◽  
Donald Richardson ◽  
Robin Howes ◽  
Kevin Beatson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Odds Ratio ◽  
Vital Signs ◽  
Early Warning Score ◽  
Emergency Admissions ◽  
Clinical Assessments ◽  
Admission Time ◽  
Emergency Medical ◽  
Acute Hospitals ◽  
National Early Warning Score

Objective Routine administrative data have been used to show that patients admitted to hospitals over the weekend appear to have a higher mortality compared to weekday admissions. Such data do not take the severity of sickness of a patient on admission into account. Our aim was to incorporate a standardized vital signs physiological-based measure of sickness known as the National Early Warning Score to investigate if weekend admissions are: sicker as measured by their index National Early Warning Score; have an increased mortality; and experience longer delays in the recording of their index National Early Warning Score. Methods We extracted details of all adult emergency medical admissions during 2014 from hospital databases and linked these with electronic National Early Warning Score data in four acute hospitals. We analysed 47,117 emergency admissions after excluding 1657 records, where National Early Warning Score was missing or the first (index) National Early Warning Score was recorded outside ±24 h of the admission time. Results Emergency medical admissions at the weekend had higher index National Early Warning Score (weekend: 2.53 vs. weekday: 2.30, p < 0.001) with a higher mortality (weekend: 706/11,332 6.23% vs. weekday: 2039/35,785 5.70%; odds ratio = 1.10, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.20, p = 0.04) which was no longer seen after adjusting for the index National Early Warning Score (odds ratio = 0.99, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.09, p = 0.87). Index National Early Warning Score was recorded sooner (−0.45 h, 95% CI −0.52 to −0.38, p < 0.001) for weekend admissions. Conclusions Emergency medical admissions at the weekend with electronic National Early Warning Score recorded within 24 h are sicker, have earlier clinical assessments, and after adjusting for the severity of their sickness, do not appear to have a higher mortality compared to weekday admissions. A larger definitive study to confirm these findings is needed.

scholarly journals National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) and 3-level triage scale as risk predictors in frail older adults in the emergency department

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kirsi Kemp ◽  
Janne Alakare ◽  
Veli-Pekka Harjola ◽  
Timo Strandberg ◽  
Jukka Tolonen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Emergency Department ◽  
Hospital Admission ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning Score ◽  
Predictive Values ◽  
Frail Older Adults ◽  
High Dependency ◽  
National Early Warning Score ◽  
Risk Predictors

Abstract Background The aim of the emergency department (ED) triage is to recognize critically ill patients and to allocate resources. No strong evidence for accuracy of the current triage instruments, especially for the older adults, exists. We evaluated the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) and a 3-level triage assessment as risk predictors for frail older adults visiting the ED. Methods This prospective, observational study was performed in a Finnish ED. The data were collected in a six-month period and included were ≥ 75-year-old residents with Clinical Frailty Scale score of at least four. We analyzed the predictive values of NEWS2 and the three-level triage scale for 30-day mortality, hospital admission, high dependency unit (HDU) and intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, a count of 72-h and 30-day revisits, and ED length-of-stay (LOS). Results A total of 1711 ED visits were included. Median for age, CFS, LOS and NEWS2 were 85 years, 6 points, 6.2 h and 1 point, respectively. 30-day mortality was 96/1711. At triage, 69, 356 and 1278 of patients were assessed as red, yellow and green, respectively. There were 1103 admissions, of them 31 to an HDU facility, none to ICU. With NEWS2 and triage score, AUCs for 30-day mortality prediction were 0.70 (0.64–0.76) and 0.62 (0.56–0.68); for hospital admission prediction 0.62 (0.60–0.65) and 0.55 (0.52–0.56), and for HDU admission 0.72 (0.61–0.83) and 0.80 (0.70–0.90), respectively. The NEWS2 divided into risk groups of low, medium and high did not predict the ED LOS (p = 0.095). There was a difference in ED LOS between the red/yellow and as red/green patient groups (p < 0.001) but not between the yellow/green groups (p = 0.59). There were 48 and 351 revisits within 72 h and 30 days, respectively. With NEWS2 AUCs for 72-h and 30-day revisit prediction were 0.48 (95% CI 0.40–0.56) and 0.47 (0.44–0.51), respectively; with triage score 0.48 (0.40–0.56) and 0.49 (0.46–0.52), respectively. Conclusions The NEWS2 and a local 3-level triage scale are statistically significant, but poor in accuracy, in predicting 30-day mortality, and HDU admission but not ED LOS or revisit rates for frail older adults. NEWS2 also seems to predict hospital admission.

scholarly journals National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) and 3-Level Triage Scale as Risk Predictors in Frail Older Adults in the Emergency Department

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kirsi Kemp ◽  
Janne Alakare ◽  
Veli-Pekka Harjola ◽  
Timo Strandberg ◽  
Jukka Tolonen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Emergency Department ◽  
Hospital Admission ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning Score ◽  
Predictive Values ◽  
Frail Older Adults ◽  
High Dependency ◽  
National Early Warning Score ◽  
Risk Predictors

Abstract Background The aim of the emergency department (ED) triage is to recognize critically ill patients and to allocate resources. No strong evidence for accuracy of the current triage instruments, especially for the older adults, exists. We evaluated the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) and a 3-level triage assessment as risk predictors for frail older adults visiting the ED.Methods This prospective, observational study was performed in a Finnish ED. The data were collected in a six-month period and included were ≥75-year-old residents with Clinical Frailty Scale score of at least four. We analyzed the predictive values of NEWS2 and the three-level triage scale for 30-day mortality, hospital admission, high dependency unit (HDU) and intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, a count of 72-hour and 30-day revisits, and ED length-of-stay (LOS). Results A total of 1711 ED visits were included. Median for age, CFS, LOS and NEWS2 were 85 years, 6 points, 6.2 hours and 1 point, respectively. 30-day mortality was 96/1711. At triage, 69, 356 and 1278 of patients were assessed as red, yellow and green, respectively. There were 1103 admissions, of them 31 to an HDU facility, none to ICU.With NEWS2 and triage score, AUCs for 30-day mortality prediction were 0.70 (0.64-0.76) and 0.62 (0.56-0.68); for hospital admission prediction 0.62 (0.60-0.65) and 0.55 (0.52-0.56), and for HDU admission 0.72 (0.61-0.83) and 0.80 (0.70-0.90), respectively.The NEWS2 divided into risk groups of low, medium and high did not predict the ED LOS (p=0.095). There was a difference in ED LOS between the red/yellow and as red/green patient groups (p<0.001) but not between the yellow/green groups (p=0.59).There were 48 and 351 revisits within 72 hours and 30 days, respectively. With NEWS2 AUCs for 72-hour and 30-day revisit prediction were 0.48 (95% CI 0.40-0.56) and 0.47 (0.44-0.51), respectively; with triage score 0.48 (0.40-0.56) and 0.49 (0.46-0.52), respectively.Conclusions The NEWS2 and a local 3-level triage scale are statistically significant, but poor in accuracy, in predicting 30-day mortality, and HDU admission but not ED LOS or revisit rates for frail older adults. NEWS2 also seems to predict hospital admission

scholarly journals Comparison of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) and the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) for predicting admission and in-hospital mortality in elderly patients in the pre-hospital setting and in the emergency department

PeerJ ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. e6947 ◽  
Author(s):  
Toshiya Mitsunaga ◽  
Izumu Hasegawa ◽  
Masahiko Uzura ◽  
Kenji Okuno ◽  
Kei Otani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Elderly Patients ◽  
Hospital Mortality ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Pressure Pulse ◽  
Vital Signs ◽  
Early Warning Score ◽  
Single Centre ◽  
Peripheral Oxygen Saturation ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
National Early Warning Score

The aim of this study is to evaluate the usefulness of the pre-hospital National Early Warning Score (pNEWS) and the pre-hospital Modified Early Warning Score (pMEWS) for predicting admission and in-hospital mortality in elderly patients presenting to the emergency department (ED). We also compare the value of the pNEWS with that of the ED NEWS (eNEWS) and ED MEWS (eMEWS) for predicting admission and in-hospital mortality. This retrospective, single-centre observational study was carried out in the ED of Jikei University Kashiwa Hospital, in Chiba, Japan, from 1st April 2017 to 31st March 2018. All patients aged 65 years or older were included in this study. The pNEWS/eNEWS were derived from seven common physiological vital signs: respiratory rate, peripheral oxygen saturation, the presence of inhaled oxygen parameters, body temperature, systolic blood pressure, pulse rate and Alert, responds to Voice, responds to Pain, Unresponsive (AVPU) score, whereas the pMEWS/eMEWS were derived from six common physiological vital signs: respiratory rate, peripheral oxygen saturation, body temperature, systolic blood pressure, pulse rate and AVPU score. Discrimination was assessed by plotting the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calculating the area under the ROC curve (AUC). The median pNEWS, pMEWS, eNEWS and eMEWS were significantly higher at admission than at discharge (p < 0.001). The median pNEWS, pMEWS, eNEWS and eMEWS of non-survivors were significantly higher than those of the survivors (p < 0.001). The AUC for predicting admission was 0.559 for the pNEWS and 0.547 for the pMEWS. There was no significant difference between the AUCs of the pNEWS and the pMEWS for predicting admission (p = 0.102). The AUCs for predicting in-hospital mortality were 0.678 for the pNEWS and 0.652 for the pMEWS. There was no significant difference between the AUCs of the pNEWS and the pMEWS for predicting in-hospital mortality (p = 0.081). The AUC for predicting admission was 0.628 for the eNEWS and 0.591 for the eMEWS. The AUC of the eNEWS was significantly greater than that of the eMEWS for predicting admission (p < 0.001). The AUC for predicting in-hospital mortality was 0.789 for the eNEWS and 0.720 for the eMEWS. The AUC of the eNEWS was significantly greater than that of the eMEWS for predicting in-hospital mortality (p < 0.001). For admission and in-hospital mortality, the AUC of the eNEWS was significantly greater than that of the pNEWS (p < 0.001, p < 0.001), and the AUC of the eMEWS was significantly greater than that of the pMEWS (p < 0.01, p < 0.05). Our single-centre study has demonstrated the low utility of the pNEWS and the pMEWS as predictors of admission and in-hospital mortality in elderly patients, whereas the eNEWS and the eMEWS predicted admission and in-hospital mortality more accurately. Evidence from multicentre studies is needed before introducing pre-hospital versions of risk-scoring systems.

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