scholarly journals Changes to Land Area Used for Grain Maize Production in Central Europe due to Predicted Climate Change

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Petr Pavlik ◽  
Veronika Vlckova ◽  
Ivo Machar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Detailed Knowledge ◽  
Agricultural Crop ◽  
Crop Species ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Vegetation Zones ◽  
Growing Conditions ◽  
The Impact

Regional biogeographical models are considered to be important tools for supporting decisions relating to sustainable agricultural planning for climate change. These models are useful for a better understanding of the impact of climate change on individual crop species due to their sensitivity to regional ecological conditions. This paper deals with the application of a regional biogeographical model in order to predict the impact of climate change on growing conditions for grain maize in Central Europe. The model is based on a detailed knowledge of the relationships between the climatic characteristics of vegetation zones in landscapes with ecological growing conditions suitable for grain maize in the region under study. The results gained from using the model indicate a substantial increase in the total area suitable for growing of grain maize in the study region. By 2070, this area is expected to be triple the size it is today. Special maps are used to visualize prediction scenarios in order to support decision-making in regional planning in the study region, where grain maize is an important agricultural crop. This biogeographical model can be used in other European regions, where basic data related to vegetation zones are available.

scholarly journals AGROCLIMATIC ZONES AND YIELD OF AGRICULTURAL CROPS IN THE CHANGING CONDITIONS OF REGIONAL CLIMATE

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 142-147
Author(s):  
Anna Scherbakova
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Climatic Changes ◽  
Komi Republic ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
Agricultural Crop ◽  
Agricultural Crops ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Today there is enough scientific research to prove the impact of climate change on agriculture. However, there is no conclusive conclusion as to what is in store for agriculture, its potential will increase or decrease. Significant consequences of the impact of climate change are likely to manifest themselves at the regional level, and this requires additional research for further adaptation of agriculture in the corresponding territory. The aim of the study is to assess changes in agro-climatic indicators at the regional level. The subject is the Komi Republic, located in the extreme northeast of the European part of the country. The chosen research methodology based on statistical processing of agro-climatic indicators for ten meteorological stations in the region for 1960-2018 and economic indicators of productivity and gross harvest of agricultural crops for 1913-2018 due to the large amount of data. Paired regression analysis used accurately interpret the results. The obtained mathematical models evaluated according to the Pearson coefficient, Student’s t-criterion, determination coefficient, F – Fisher’s criterion, so that the results of the study were reliable. For some regions, the consequences of climate change may turn out to be negative in the form of a decrease in food supply, for others - positive, due to an increase in the duration of the growing season and, accordingly, an increase in the potential productivity of agricultural crops. The relevance of the study is because these positive consequences will be especially characteristic for the northern territories. As a result, it revealed that in four agro-climatic regions of the Komi Republic, there were insignificant climatic changes for agriculture over a sixty-year period. An analysis of the yield of vegetables in open ground showed that it increased from 36 to 314 tons per hectare, and the gross yield of the main agricultural crop - potatoes - decreased almost 3 times, but the main reason is the reduction in acreage, and not climate change. However, the trend line for potato yields in the region as a whole shows an upward trend over a 100-year period. The performed paired regression analysis between the selected agro-climatic indicators and the yield of agricultural crops of the republic revealed an average direct relationship only between the yield of vegetables and the duration of the growing season, and the sum of average daily temperatures. Consequently, it is currently impossible to assert that the ongoing climatic changes have a significant impact on agriculture in the Komi Republic

scholarly journals The Impact of Climate Change on Lakes in Central Europe

2009 ◽  
pp. 387-409 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin T. Dokulil ◽  
Katrin Teubner ◽  
Alfred Jagsch ◽  
Ulrike Nickus ◽  
Rita Adrian ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

A cross-taxon analysis of the impact of climate change on abundance trends in central Europe

2015 ◽  
Vol 187 ◽  
pp. 41-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
D.E. Bowler ◽  
P. Haase ◽  
I. Kröncke ◽  
O. Tackenberg ◽  
H.G. Bauer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Abundance Trends ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Circulation type analysis of regional hydrology: the added value in using CMIP6 over CMIP5 simulations as exemplified from the MPI-ESM-LR model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chibuike Chiedozie Ibebuchi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Physical Relationship ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This study addresses the applicability of general circulation models (GCMs) in studying the impact of climate change on hydrology. The statistical downscaling of precipitation based on circulation types (CTs) derived from the (fuzzy) obliquely rotated principal component analysis is suggested as a robust methodology in using climate models to research the impact of climate change on hydrology. The methodology allows understanding of the mechanism of atmospheric circulation in the study region, and the physical relationship between atmospheric circulation and the regional hydrological cycle. The capability of climate simulations from the MPI-ESM GCM to reproduce the observed CTs in the target region is examined in light of the uncertainty of atmospheric GCMs when used for circulation typing. The results were discussed and it showed that, generally, the analyzed GCM can reproduce the underlying physics of atmospheric circulation in the study region, represented by the CTs, together with their dominant periods, probability of occurrence, and annual frequency of occurrence with modest biases. Generally, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) simulation indicates some improvement for the CT-based analysis relative to the CMIP5 counterpart; however, this depends on the analyzed CT.

scholarly journals Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Daily Extreme Peak and Low Flows of Zenne Basin in Belgium

Hydrology ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olkeba Leta ◽  
Willy Bauwens
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Agricultural Crop ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Low Flows ◽  
Hydrological Extremes ◽  
The Impact

Integrating hydrology with climate is essential for a better understanding of the impact of present and future climate on hydrological extremes, which may cause frequent flooding, drought, and shortage of water supply. This study assessed the impact of future climate change on the hydrological extremes (peak and low flows) of the Zenne river basin (Belgium). The objectives were to assess how climate change impacts basin-wide extreme flows and to provide a detailed overview of the impacts of four future climate change scenarios compared to the control (baseline) values. The scenarios are high (wet) summer (projects a future with high storm rain in summer), high (wet) winter (predicts a future with high rainfall in winter), mean (considers a future with intermediate climate conditions), and low (dry) (projects a future with low rainfall during winter and summer). These scenarios were projected by using the Climate Change Impact on HYDRological extremes perturbation tool (CCI-HYDR), which was (primarily) developed for Belgium to study climate change. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to predict the impact of climate change on hydrological extremes by the 2050s (2036–2065) and the 2080s (2066–2095) by perturbing the historical daily data of 1961–1990. We found that the four climate change scenarios show quite different impacts on extreme peak and low flows. The extreme peak flows are expected to increase by as much as 109% under the wet summer scenario, which could increase adverse effects, such as flooding and disturbance of the riverine ecosystem functioning of the river. On the other hand, the low (dry) scenario is projected to cause a significant decrease in both daily extreme peak and low flows, by as much as 169% when compared to the control values, which would cause problems, such as droughts, reduction in agricultural crop productivity, and increase in drinking water and other water use demands. More importantly, larger negative changes in low flows are predicted in the downstream part of the basin where a higher groundwater contribution is expected, indicating the sensitivity of a basin to the impact of climate change may vary spatially and depend on basin characteristic. Overall, an amplified, as well as an earlier, occurrence of hydrological droughts is expected towards the end of this century, suggesting that water resources managers, planners, and decision makers should prepare appropriate mitigation measures for climate change for the Zenne and similar basins.

HOW CLIMATE CHANGE CAN INFLUENCE THE AGRICULTURE IN UKRAINE: A REVIEW

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Maidanovych ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Soil Surface ◽  
Winter Period ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Resource Saving ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Average Annual Temperature ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this work is to review and analyze the main results of modern research on the impact of climate change on the agro-sphere of Ukraine. Results. Analysis of research has shown that the effects of climate change on the agro-sphere are already being felt today and will continue in the future. The observed climate changes in recent decades have already significantly affected the shift in the northern direction of all agro-climatic zones of Europe, including Ukraine. From the point of view of productivity of the agro-sphere of Ukraine, climate change will have both positive and negative consequences. The positives include: improving the conditions of formation and reducing the harvesting time of crop yields; the possibility of effective introduction of late varieties (hybrids), which require more thermal resources; improving the conditions for overwintering crops; increase the efficiency of fertilizer application. Model estimates of the impact of climate change on wheat yields in Ukraine mainly indicate the positive effects of global warming on yields in the medium term, but with an increase in the average annual temperature by 2 ° C above normal, grain yields are expected to decrease. The negative consequences of the impact of climate change on the agrosphere include: increased drought during the growing season; acceleration of humus decomposition in soils; deterioration of soil moisture in the southern regions; deterioration of grain quality and failure to ensure full vernalization of grain; increase in the number of pests, the spread of pathogens of plants and weeds due to favorable conditions for their overwintering; increase in wind and water erosion of the soil caused by an increase in droughts and extreme rainfall; increasing risks of freezing of winter crops due to lack of stable snow cover. Conclusions. Resource-saving agricultural technologies are of particular importance in the context of climate change. They include technologies such as no-till, strip-till, ridge-till, which make it possible to partially store and accumulate mulch on the soil surface, reduce the speed of the surface layer of air and contribute to better preservation of moisture accumulated during the autumn-winter period. And in determining the most effective ways and mechanisms to reduce weather risks for Ukrainian farmers, it is necessary to take into account the world practice of climate-smart technologies.

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