scholarly journals Prediction of Urban and Rural Tourism Economic Forecast Based on Machine Learning

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Wusheng Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Local Economic Development ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Economic Forecast ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Tourism Revenue

With the rapid development of tourism, tourism revenue, as one of the important indicators to measure the development of the tourism economy, has high research value. The quasi-prediction of tourism revenue can drive the development of a series of related industries and accelerate the development of the domestic economy. When forecasting tourism income, it is necessary to examine the causal relationship between tourism income and local economic development. The traditional cointegration analysis method is to extract the promotion characteristics of tourism income to the local economy and construct a tourism income prediction model, but it cannot accurately describe the causal relationship between tourism income and local economic development and cannot accurately predict tourism income. We propose an optimized forecasting method of tourism revenue based on time series. This method first conducts a cointegration test on the time series data of the relationship between tourism income and local economic development, constructs a two-variable autoregressive model of tourism income and local economy, and uses the swarm intelligence method to test the causal relationship and the relationship between tourism income and local economic development, calculate the proportion of tourism industry, define the calculation result as the direct influence factor of tourism industry on the local economy, calculate the relevant effect of local tourism development and economic income, and construct tourism income optimization forecast model. The simulation results show that the model used can accurately predict tourism revenue.

scholarly journals An Empirical Analysis of Energy Consumption, FDI and High Quality Development Based on Time Series Data of Zhejiang Province

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (9) ◽  
pp. 3321
Author(s):  
Shaolong Zeng ◽  
Yiqun Liu ◽  
Junjie Ding ◽  
Danlu Xu
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
High Speed ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Series Data ◽  
High Quality ◽  
The Relationship

This paper aims to identify the relationship among energy consumption, FDI, and economic development in China from 1993 to 2017, taking Zhejiang as an example. FDI is the main factor of the rapid development of Zhejiang’s open economy, which promotes the development of the economy, but also leads to the growth in energy consumption. Based on the time series data of energy consumption, FDI inflow, and GDP in Zhejiang from 1993 to 2017, we choose the vector auto-regression (VAR) model and try to identify the relationship among energy consumption, FDI, and economic development. The results indicate that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship among them. The FDI inflow promotes energy consumption, and the energy consumption promotes FDI inflow in turn. FDI promotes economic growth indirectly through energy consumption. Therefore, improving the quality of FDI and energy efficiency has become an inevitable choice to achieve the transition of Zhejiang’s economy from high speed growth to high quality growth.

Exploring the Relationship Between Arts Festivals and Economic Development in Rural Island Regions: A Case Study of Scotland’s Orkney Isles

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jordan R. Gamble
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Cultural Values ◽  
Local Economic Development ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Theoretical Development ◽  
Endogenous Development ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Arts Festivals ◽  
Arts Festival ◽  
The Relationship

This paper explores arts festivals in terms of their relationship to local economic development within the rural island region of Orkney in Scotland. Fourteen qualitative, semi-structured interviews were conducted with arts festival organisers, tourism representatives and local volunteers during the summer festival season. The findings offer new insights into the factors affecting how arts festivals impact the local economy; the areas of the local economy that are affected by arts festivals; and the implications of funding from awarding bodies on the endogenous development of arts festivals. For instance, it is concluded that supporting the cultural values of locals is vital to the economic success of rural arts festivals through a strategic design in the combined integration of minimised paid staff and maximised volunteers. Furthermore, it is revealed how in certain cases the initial retention of funding may benefit start-up arts festivals in terms of strategic development of their social approval and natural progression. Through the provision of an original theoretical framework for the relationship between arts festivals and economic development in a rural island context, the paper also makes substantive contributions to theoretical development and knowledge advancement in this field, whilst offering future research directions for rural studies researchers. Ultimately, island community practitioners such as festival directors, local authorities and merchants could benefit from using the findings to develop enhanced strategic operations, which could generate greater synergies and sustainability for the local arts festival sector and ultimately contribute towards greater economic prosperity.

scholarly journals KAUSALITAS KONTRIBUSI INDUSTRI PARIWISATA DAN JUMLAH KUNJUNGAN WISATAWAN TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 330
Author(s):  
COKORDA BAGUS YUDISTIRA ◽  
I WAYAN SUMARJAYA ◽  
LUH PUTU IDA HARINI
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Foreign Tourist ◽  
The World

Bali is known as one of the most popular tourism destination in the world. The number of tourist visit to Bali increases every year. In 2010, there roughly 7 millions tourist visits to Bali and reach up to 14 million people by the end of 2017. This increased in number may affect the growth of tourism industries and economic growth in Bali Province. This study aims to analyze the patterns of causal relationship between tourism industry receipts, tourist visits, and economic growth in Bali based on time series data using vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The results conclude the following: (i) foreign tourist visits is significantly affect economic growth. In addition, economic growth, domestic tourist visits, and foreign tourist visits are significantly impact to tourism industry receipts, (ii) economic growth would affect the tourism industry receipts in the next four consecutive months, (iii) the forecasting result of economic growth with VAR model is highly accurated with MAPE 2%.

scholarly journals INSURANCE AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN NIGERIA: CO-INTEGRATION AND CAUSALITY ANALYSIS

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mfon Sampson Ukpong ◽  
Ikechukwu A. Acha
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Life Insurance ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Insurance Premiums ◽  
Stationarity Test ◽  
Total Life

We examine the cointegration and causal relationship between insurance and economic development in Nigeria using time series data from 1990 – 2013. Gross domestic product (GDP) is adopted as a proxy for the level of economic development, while total life insurance premiums (TPL), total non-life insurance premiums (TPNL) and total insurance investment (TII) are used in measuring growth in the insurance sector. Data is operationalized through the stationarity test, cointegration test, regression analysis and granger causality tests. The stationarity test reveals that all-time series data are stationary at the 1%, 5% and 10% levels of significance. The test for cointegration shows that all cointegrate when GDP is the endogenous variable. The granger causality test reveals that there is a bidirectional relationship existing between GDP and total non-life insurance premiums while a unidirectional relationship exists between GDP and total life insurance premiums with no causal relationship existing between GDP and total insurance investments. An R-squared value of 0.9776 indicates that the independent variables account for 97.8% of the variations in GDP while the remaining 2.2% is attributable to influence of other variables or fators not in the scope of this study. We conclude that insurance not only contributes to economic development but also has a long term equilibrium relationship. Therefore, we recommend that insurance activities in the country should be encouraged to promote effectiveness and efficiency in order to enhance the long term relationship with economic development.

scholarly journals Financial stability and local economic development: the experience of Italian labour market areas

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristian Barra ◽  
Roberto Zotti
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
Financial Distress ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Local Economic Development ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Spatial Effects ◽  
Financial Conditions ◽  
Market Areas ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractRegulators should ensure the smooth functioning of the system and promote regional development. Making the health of financial institutions is therefore a prerequisite for a sustainable economic development. This paper contributes to the literature on the relationship between the financial stability and growth within the area of one country. This implies that institutional, legal, and cultural factors are more adequately controlled for and financial markets are more accurately bounded. Using a rich sample of Italian banks over the 2001–2012 period, this paper addresses whether different measures of financial distress affect economic development of labour market areas in Italy. Results show that the financial stability has a positive effect on local economic development, robust to alternative variables capturing financial vulnerability. The presence of spatial effects is tested showing that better financial conditions of the banking system in neighbouring areas have a detrimental effect on an area’s growth.

scholarly journals Tourism Industry and Economic Growth Nexus in Beijing, China

Economies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Songling ◽  
Muhammad Ishtiaq ◽  
Bui Thi Thanh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Growth Index ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Beijing China

In the developing economy, tourism is the most visible and steadiest growing facade. Tourism is considered one of the rapidly increasing elements for economic development from the last two decades. Therefore, the proposed study used vector autoregression (VAR) model, error correction model (ECM), and the Granger causality to check the relationship between the tourism industry and economic growth based on the data of the Beijing municipal bureau of statistics from 1994 to 2015. Gross domestic product (GDP) is used as a replacement variable for the economic growth index, while internal tourism revenue is used as a tourism industry indicator. The study supports the tourism-led growth hypothesis proposed in the existing literature in a different survey of tourism and economic development. The results show that there is a strong relationship in the tourism industry and economic growth in the context of Beijing, and at the same time, tourism creates a more significant increase in long run local real economic accomplishments. The results of the VAR model confirm that in the long run, Beijing’s economic growth is affected by domestic tourism, while the ECM model shows unidirectional results in the short term. Similarly, there is a one-way causal relationship between the tourism industry and economic growth in Beijing, China. The empirical results are in strong support of the concept that tourism causes growth.

CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH – A CASE STUDY OF PAKISTAN

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 139-164
Author(s):  
Saddam Hussain ◽  
Chunjiao Yu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Relationship Of

This paper explores the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Pakistan, applying techniques of co-integration and Hsiao’s version of Granger causality, using time series data over the period 1965-2019. Time series data of macroeconomic determi-nants – i.e. energy growth, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) growth and population growth shows a positive correlation with economic growth while there is no correlation founded be-tween economic growth and inflation rate or Consumer Price Index (CPI). The general conclu-sion of empirical results is that economic growth causes energy consumption.

scholarly journals Local industrial strategy and skills policy in England: Assessing the linkages and limitations – a case study of the Sheffield City Deal

2016 ◽  
Vol 31 (8) ◽  
pp. 857-872 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Sissons ◽  
Katy Jones
Keyword(s):  
Local Economic Development ◽  
Innovation Policy ◽  
National Policy ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Local Growth ◽  
Potential Growth ◽  
Economic Development Policy ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Do So

This paper examines changes in local economic development policy which occurred between 2010 and 2015, with a focus on the relationship between industrial strategy and skills policy. Under the Coalition Government, Local Enterprise Partnerships were established and tasked with facilitating local growth, and to do so many identified a set of (potential) growth sectors for industrial strategy to support. These sectors tended to be drawn from a relatively narrow range of industries which therefore often excluded a large proportion of the local economy. An important focus of the support for growth sectors for many has been through an ambition to influence the local skills system. Skills policy more broadly has been an important dimension of devolution, and a number of City Deals have included elements of skills policy. Echoing previous national policy however, the focus of local concerns with skills under devolution has been framed largely with reference to skills gaps and shortages. While specific skills gaps and shortages can be identified, this paper questions whether this default position is reflected widely, and as such, if a narrow focus on skills supply is a sufficient approach. It is argued that to support local growth across a broad base, greater attention needs to be paid to stimulating employer demand for skills through better integrating industrial and innovation policy with skills policymaking across a wider section of the local economy. To support these arguments we present a case study of the Sheffield City Deal.

scholarly journals PEMODELAN GENERALIZED SPACE TIME AUTOREGRESSIVE (GSTAR) SEASONAL PADA DATA CURAH HUJAN EMPAT KABUPATEN DI PROVINSI JAWA TENGAH

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 418-427
Author(s):  
Eko Siswanto ◽  
Hasbi Yasin ◽  
Sudarno Sudarno
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Inverse Distance Weighted ◽  
Modeling And Forecasting ◽  
Distance Weighted ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Inverse Distance

In many applications, several time series data are recorded simultaneously at a number of locations. Time series data from nearby locations often to be related by spatial and time. This data is called spatial time series data. Generalized Space Time Autoregressive (GSTAR) model is one of space time models used to modeling and forecasting spatial time series data. This study applied GTSAR model to modeling volume of rainfall four locations in Jepara Regency, Kudus Regency, Pati Regency, and Grobogan Regency. Based on the smallest RMSE mean of forecasting result, the best model chosen by this study is GSTAR (11)-I(1)12 with the inverse distance weighted. Based on GSTAR(11)-I(1)12 with the inverse distance weighted, the relationship between the location shown on rainfall Pati Regency influenced by the rainfall in other regencies. Keywords: GSTAR, RMSE, Rainfall

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