scholarly journals Evaluating Investors’ Recognition Abilities for Risk and Profit in Online Loan Markets Using Nonlinear Models and Financial Big Data

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Qizhi He ◽  
Pingfan Xia ◽  
Bo Li ◽  
Jia-Bao Liu
Keyword(s):  
Big Data ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Information Disclosure ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Nonlinear Models ◽  
Web Crawler ◽  
Other Information ◽  
Loan Markets ◽  
The Interest Rate

Financial big data are obtained by web crawler, and investors’ recognition abilities for risk and profit in online loan markets are researched using heteroskedastic Probit models. The conclusions are obtained as follows: First, the preference for the item is reflected directly in the time and indirectly in the number of participants for being full, and the larger the preference, the shorter the time and the fewer the participants. Second, investors can discriminate the default risk not reflected by the interest rate, and the bigger the default risk, the longer the time and the more participants being full. Third, investors can discriminate the pure return rate deducted from the maturity term and credit risk, and the higher the return, the shorter the time and the fewer the participants being full. Fourth, default risks are reflected well by online loan platform interest rates, and inventors do not choose the item blindly according to the interest rate but consider comprehensively the profit and the risk. In the future, interest rate liberalization should be deepened, the choosing function of interest rates should be played better, and the information disclosure, investor education, and investor effective usage of other information should be strengthened.

Emerging Markets Interest Rates, International Reserves and Net Foreign Assets

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Bitar ◽  
Martin Boileau
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
International Reserves ◽  
Net Foreign Assets ◽  
Portfolio Balance ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Differential ◽  
Foreign Assets

Abstract In the context of a managed float regime, we adopt the portfolio balance view to show the effects of the net foreign assets of an economy and its gross international reserves level on interest rate differentials. We argue that the interest rate differential can be explained by three components, where the components are the expected depreciation of the domestic currency, a default risk premium, and a portfolio balance premium. Our theoretical analysis suggests that the interest differential is a convex function of the level of gross international reserves. In particular, the differential and gross reserves are inversely related at low levels of reserves, but positively at higher levels. We evaluate our framework for the case of Lebanon. We find that the differential is inversely related to both net foreign assets and gross international reserves. These findings are then confirmed with data from Indonesia and Mexico.

scholarly journals Fund Matching between Fund-Raisers and Investors in Financing Platform with Consideration of Default Risk

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Kenan Li ◽  
Xin Li ◽  
Zhijun Lin ◽  
Jing Lu ◽  
Pak Hou Che
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Expected Profit ◽  
General Distribution ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Fund Raiser

We construct a stochastic model to study the fund matching between fund-raisers and investors in a financing platform. The raising time is assumed to be a random variable. Then, there is a successful transaction probability that the fund matching is realized. Meanwhile, the interest and the commission rate that the platform earns affect the value of the probability. The platform maximizes its revenue by adjusting the commission rate. We find that the optimal commission rate decreases in investment time. However, when the time interval between two adjacent investments obeys the general distribution, the optimal commission rate increases in the annual interest rate. Besides, we extend the model into a duopoly case in which two fund-raisers compete for customers in the same platform by deciding their own interest rate. Due to lacking competition, the optimal interest rate in the monopoly case is lower than that in the duopoly case. Because the interest rate is the cost for the fund-raiser, the expected profit of the fund-raiser in the monopoly is higher than the expected profit of each fund-raiser in the duopoly case but lower than the total expected profit of two fund-raisers. The platform should choose some small loans as far as possible. The loans with smaller amount are easier for the platform to complete fundraising. For those large loans, the platform should try to ask for higher interest rates or more sufficient time to raise funds.

DETERMINAN INFLASI DI INDONESIA PERIODE 1980-2015

2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Risna Risna
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Quantitative Approach ◽  
State Spending ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
The Interest Rate

This study aims to determine the effect of government spending, the money supply, the interest rate of Bank Indonesia against inflation.This study uses secondary data. Secondary data were obtained directly from the Central Bureau of Statistics and Bank Indonesia. It can be said that there are factors affecting inflationas government spending, money supply, and interest rates BI. The reseach uses a quantitative approach to methods of e-views in the data. The results of analysis of three variables show that state spending significantand positive impact on inflationin Indonesia, the money supply significantand negative to inflationin Indonesia, BI rate a significantand positive impact on inflation in Indonesia

scholarly journals Risk Management for Bonds with Embedded Options

Mathematics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 790
Author(s):  
Antonio Díaz ◽  
Marta Tolentino
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Interest Rate Risk ◽  
Interest Rate Models ◽  
Management Measures ◽  
Interest Rate Risk Management ◽  
Embedded Options ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rate Change

This paper examines the behavior of the interest rate risk management measures for bonds with embedded options and studies factors it depends on. The contingent option exercise implies that both the pricing and the risk management of bonds requires modelling future interest rates. We use the Ho and Lee (HL) and Black, Derman, and Toy (BDT) consistent interest rate models. In addition, specific interest rate measures that consider the contingent cash-flow structure of these coupon-bearing bonds must be computed. In our empirical analysis, we obtained evidence that effective duration and effective convexity depend primarily on the level of the forward interest rate and volatility. In addition, the higher the interest rate change and the lower the volatility, the greater the differences in pricing of these bonds when using the HL or BDT models.

Determinants of Treasury-LIBOR Swap Spreads

2005 ◽  
Vol 08 (04) ◽  
pp. 687-705 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. K. Malhotra ◽  
Vivek Bhargava ◽  
Mukesh Chaudhry
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Interest Rate Volatility ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Swap Spreads

Using data from the Treasury versus London Interbank Offer Swap Rates (LIBOR) for October 1987 to June 1998, this paper examines the determinants of swap spreads in the Treasury-LIBOR interest rate swap market. This study hypothesizes Treasury-LIBOR swap spreads as a function of the Treasury rate of comparable maturity, the slope of the yield curve, the volatility of short-term interest rates, a proxy for default risk, and liquidity in the swap market. The study finds that, in the long-run, swap spreads are negatively related to the yield curve slope and liquidity in the swap market. We also find that swap spreads are positively related to the short-term interest rate volatility. In the short-run, swap market's response to higher default risk seems to be higher spread between the bid and offer rates.

scholarly journals The Impact of Interest Rate Ceilings on Microfinance Industry

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 10
Author(s):  
Ali Saleh Alshebami ◽  
D. M. Khandare
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Research Subject ◽  
Access To Credit ◽  
The Poor ◽  
Good Intention ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

<p>Imposing ceilings on the interest rate has recently become one of the new hottest topics in microfinance industry; various debates have been discussing this issue to know the effect of interest rate ceilings on the supply of credit in particular and on microfinance industry in general. However in spite of the good intention behind these ceilings, there was no absolute result stating that ceilings have really contributed to the improvement or protection of the poor clients, indeed, these ceilings have hurt those low income people instead of helping them, due to these ceilings most of MFIs left the market or reduced their scale due to the inability to continue operating with low interest rate leaving the very poor clients without access to credit. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to review the impact of imposing such ceilings on the interest rates and to find out what alterative solutions can be employed as substitutes for them. This paper is entirely based on the secondary data collected from various records related to microfinance such as microfinance books, official websites and reports, published papers, and other sources related to the research subject.</p>

scholarly journals Pengaruh Tingkat Suku Bunga, Inflasi Dan Nilai Kurs Terhadap Harga Saham Perusahaan Perhotelan Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Per Triwulannya Periode 2016-2018

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 871-877
Author(s):  
Rahmat Dewa Bagas Nugraha ◽  
H.M Nursito
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Quantitative Study ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Ratio Analysis ◽  
The Interest Rate

This study aims to determine and analyze the factors that affect stock prices through appropriate ratio analysis. As for the ratio of interest rates, inflation and exchange rates. Researchers want to know and analyze the effect partially or simultaneously between interest rates, inflation, and exchange rates on stock prices. This research is a quantitative study using secondary data. The object of this research is hotel companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the period 2016-2018. The sample used in this study were 3 hotel with certain characteristics. The results of research simultaneously using the F test show that there is no influence between interest rates, inflation and exchange rates on stock prices because the calculated value is smaller than the table. Partially with the t test it can be concluded that there is no influence between interest rates on stock prices because the tcount value in the interest rate variable is smaller than the t table. Likewise, the t calculation of inflation and the exchange rate is smaller than the t table, so that there is no partial effect of the two variables on stock prices. Keywords: Stock Prices, Interest Rates, Inflation and Exchange Rates

scholarly journals Does the Interest Rate Form Business Cycle?

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-34
Author(s):  
Bijan Bidabad ◽  
Abul Hassan
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Rate Form ◽  
The Interest Rate

Dynamic structural behavior of depositor, bank and borrower and the role of banks in forming business cycle are investigated. We test the hypothesis that does banks behavior make oscillations in the economy through the interest rate. By dichotomizing banking activities into two markets of deposit and loan, we show that these two markets have non-synchronized structures, and this is why the money sector fluctuation starts. As a result, the fluctuation is transmitted to the real economy through saving and investment functions. Empirical results assert that in the USA, the banking system creates fluctuations in the money sector and real economy as well through short-term interest rates

INTEREST RATE TARGETS AND SPECULATIVE ATTACKS ON PUBLIC DEBT

2018 ◽  
Vol 23 (07) ◽  
pp. 2698-2716 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pompeo Della Posta
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Nonlinear Behavior ◽  
Lender Of Last Resort ◽  
Speculative Attacks ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Target Zones ◽  
Primary Surplus

The application of exchange rate target zones modeling to interest rates allows interpreting the puzzles that emerged with the public debt euro area crisis, namely the nonlinear behavior of the interest rates and the fact that some stand-alone countries, not belonging to the euro area, have not been subject to speculative attacks in spite of equally large public debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratios. As a matter of fact, this model shows that in the case of a noncredible upper threshold for the interest rate (that may be due to both the lack of room for increasing further the required government primary surplus and/or the absence of a monetary authority acting as a lender of last resort), the resulting public debt unsustainability determines an interest rate nonlinearity and makes the crisis possible for public debt levels that would be stable in the presence of a credible interest rate target.

scholarly journals Safe Assets, Liquidity, and Monetary Policy

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 182-227 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierpaolo Benigno ◽  
Salvatore Nisticò
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Risk Sharing ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Multiple Assets ◽  
Interest Rate Spreads ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Liquidity Shock ◽  
Deep Recession

This paper studies monetary policy in models where multiple assets have different liquidity properties: safe and “pseudo-safe” assets coexist. A shock worsening the liquidity properties of the pseudo-safe assets raises interest rate spreads and can cause a deep recession-cum-deflation. Expanding the central bank’s balance sheet fills the shortage of safe assets and counteracts the recession. Lowering the interest rate on reserves insulates market interest rates from the liquidity shock and improves risk sharing between borrowers and savers. (JEL E31, E32, E43, E44, E52)

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