scholarly journals Prediction of Ionospheric TEC Based on the NARX Neural Network

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Liu Guoyan ◽  
Gao Wang ◽  
Zhang Zhengxie ◽  
Zhao Qing
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Solar Activity ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Satellite System ◽  
Electron Content ◽  
Total Electron ◽  
Global Navigation Satellite ◽  
Narx Neural Network

Effective prediction of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) is very important for Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) positioning and other related applications. This paper proposes an ionospheric TEC prediction method using the nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous input (NARX) neural network, which uses previous TEC data and external time parameter inputs to establish a TEC prediction model. During the years of different solar activities, 12 datasets of 3 stations with different latitudes are used for experiments. Each dataset uses the first 120 days for training and the next 20 days for testing. For each test dataset, a sliding window strategy is adopted in the prediction process, wherein the TEC of future 2 days are predicted by the true TEC values of the previous 2 days. The results show that in the year with active solar activity (2011), the TEC prediction with the NARX network can improve the accuracy by 32.3% and 43.5%, compared with the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the 2-day predicted TEC product, named C2PG. While in the year with calm solar activity (2017), the prediction accuracy can be improved by 20.7% and 22.7%.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the NeQuick model performance under different geomagnetic conditions over South Africa during the ascending phase of the solar cycle (2009–2012)

2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (5) ◽  
pp. 1161-1170 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sylvain M. Ahoua ◽  
John Bosco Habarulema ◽  
Olivier K. Obrou ◽  
Pierre J. Cilliers ◽  
Zacharie K. Zaka
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Satellite System ◽  
High Solar Activity ◽  
Electron Content ◽  
Specific Response ◽  
Dual Frequency ◽  
Total Electron ◽  
K Index ◽  
Global Navigation Satellite

Abstract. In order to provide a scientific base to the NeQuick characterisation under disturbed conditions, the comparison of its performance for quiet and storm days is investigated in the southern mid-latitude. This investigation was realised using the two versions of the NeQuick model which were adapted to local and storm-specific response by using the critical frequency of the F2 layer (foF2) and the propagation factor (M(3000)F2) derived from three South African ionosonde measurements, Hermanus (34.40∘ S, 19.20∘ E), Grahamstown (33.30∘ S, 26.50∘ E) and Louisvale (28.50∘ S, 21.20∘ E). The number of free electrons contained within a 1 m squared column section known as total electron content (TEC) is a widely used ionospheric parameter to estimate its impact on the radio signal passing through. In this study, the TEC derived from the adapted NeQuick version is compared with observed TEC derived from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data from co-located or nearby GNSS dual-frequency receivers. The Hermanus K-index is used to select all the disturbed days (K-index ≥ 5) upon moving from low to high solar activity (from 2009 to 2012). For each disturbed day, a quiet reference day of the same month was chosen for the investigation. The study reveals that the NeQuick model shows similar reliability for both magnetic quiet and disturbed conditions, but its accuracy is affected by the solar activity. The model is much better for moderate solar activity epochs (2009 and 2010), while it exhibits a discrepancy with observations during high solar activity epochs. For instance in Hermanus, the difference between GPS TEC and NeQuick TEC (ΔTEC) is generally lower than 10 TECu in 2009, and it sometimes reaches 20 TECu in 2011 and 2012. It is also noticed that NeQuick 2 is more accurate than NeQuick 1, with an improvement in TEC estimation more significant for the high solar activity epochs. The improvement realised in the latest version of NeQuick is more than 15 % and sometimes reaches 50 %. Keywords. Ionosphere (mid-latitude ionosphere; modelling and forecasting)

scholarly journals Investigation of Pre-Earthquake Ionospheric and Atmospheric Disturbances for Three Large Earthquakes in Mexico

Geosciences ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 16
Author(s):  
Christina Oikonomou ◽  
Haris Haralambous ◽  
Sergey Pulinets ◽  
Aakriti Khadka ◽  
Shukra R. Paudel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Chemical Potential ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Satellite System ◽  
Seismic Events ◽  
Electron Content ◽  
Total Electron ◽  
Atmospheric Disturbances ◽  
Global Ionospheric Maps ◽  
Global Navigation Satellite ◽  
Large Earthquakes

The purpose of the present study is to investigate simultaneously pre-earthquake ionospheric and atmospheric disturbances by the application of different methodologies, with the ultimate aim to detect their possible link with the impending seismic event. Three large earthquakes in Mexico are selected (8.2 Mw, 7.1 Mw and 6.6 Mw during 8 and 19 September 2017 and 21 January 2016 respectively), while ionospheric variations during the entire year 2017 prior to 37 earthquakes are also examined. In particular, Total Electron Content (TEC) retrieved from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) networks and Atmospheric Chemical Potential (ACP) variations extracted from an atmospheric model are analyzed by performing statistical and spectral analysis on TEC measurements with the aid of Global Ionospheric Maps (GIMs), Ionospheric Precursor Mask (IPM) methodology and time series and regional maps of ACP. It is found that both large and short scale ionospheric anomalies occurring from few hours to a few days prior to the seismic events may be linked to the forthcoming events and most of them are nearly concurrent with atmospheric anomalies happening during the same day. This analysis also highlights that even in low-latitude areas it is possible to discern pre-earthquake ionospheric disturbances possibly linked with the imminent seismic events.

scholarly journals Characterization of multi-scale ionospheric irregularities using ground-based and space-based GNSS observations

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
YuXiang Peng ◽  
Wayne A Scales ◽  
Michael D Hartinger ◽  
Zhonghua Xu ◽  
Shane Coyle
Keyword(s):  
Formation Flying ◽  
Satellite System ◽  
Ionospheric Irregularities ◽  
Mission Design ◽  
Electron Content ◽  
Total Electron ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Multi Scale ◽  
Global Navigation Satellite ◽  
Gnss Observations

AbstractIonospheric irregularities can adversely affect the performance of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS). However, this opens the possibility of using GNSS as an effective ionospheric remote sensing tool. Despite ionospheric monitoring has been undertaken for decades, these irregularities in multiple spatial and temporal scales are still not fully understood. This paper reviews Virginia Tech’s recent studies on multi-scale ionospheric irregularities using ground-based and space-based GNSS observations. First, the relevant background of ionospheric irregularities and their impact on GNSS signals is reviewed. Next, three topics of ground-based observations of ionospheric irregularities for which GNSS and other ground-based techniques are used simultaneously are reviewed. Both passive and active measurements in high-latitude regions are covered. Modelling and observations in mid-latitude regions are considered as well. Emphasis is placed on the increased capability of assessing the multi-scale nature of ionospheric irregularities using other traditional techniques (e.g., radar, magnetometer, high frequency receivers) as well as GNSS observations (e.g., Total-Electron-Content or TEC, scintillation). Besides ground-based observations, recent advances in GNSS space-based ionospheric measurements are briefly reviewed. Finally, a new space-based ionospheric observation technique using GNSS-based spacecraft formation flying and a differential TEC method is demonstrated using the newly developed Virginia Tech Formation Flying Testbed (VTFFTB). Based on multi-constellation multi-band GNSS, the VTFFTB has been developed into a hardware-in-the-loop simulation testbed with external high-fidelity global ionospheric model(s) for 3-satellite formation flying, which can potentially be used for new multi-scale ionospheric measurement mission design.

scholarly journals Investigation of GIM-TEC disturbances before M ≥ 6.0 inland earthquakes during 2003–2017

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fuying Zhu ◽  
Yingchun Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Rapid Development ◽  
Science Research ◽  
Satellite System ◽  
Statistical Investigation ◽  
Electron Content ◽  
Total Electron ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Distributions ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Global Ionosphere Map ◽  
Global Navigation Satellite

Abstract With the rapid development of the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and its wide applications to atmospheric science research, the global ionosphere map (GIM) total electron content (TEC) data are extensively used as a potential tool to detect ionospheric disturbances related to seismic activity and they are frequently used to statistically study the relation between the ionosphere and earthquakes (EQs). Indeed, due to the distribution of ground based GPS receivers is very sparse or absent in large areas of ocean, the GIM-TEC data over oceans are results of interpolation between stations and extrapolation in both space and time, and therefore, they are not suitable for studying the marine EQs. In this paper, based on the GIM-TEC data, a statistical investigation of ionospheric TEC variations of 15 days before and after the 276 M ≥ 6.0 inland EQs is undertaken. After eliminating the interference of geomagnetic activities, the spatial and temporal distributions of the ionospheric TEC disturbances before and after the EQs are investigated and compared. There are no particularly distinct features in the time distribution of the ionospheric TEC disturbances before the inland EQs. However, there are some differences in the spatial distribution, and the biggest difference is precisely in the epicenter area. On the other hand, the occurrence rates of ionospheric TEC disturbances within 5 days before the EQs are overall higher than those after EQs, in addition both of them slightly increase with the earthquake magnitude. These results suggest that the anomalous variations of the GIM-TEC before the EQs might be related to the seismic activities.

scholarly journals A Neural Network-Based TEC Model Capable of Reproducing Nighttime Winter Anomaly

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (22) ◽  
pp. 4559
Author(s):  
Marjolijn Adolfs ◽  
Mohammed Mainul Hoque
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Solar Activity ◽  
Geomagnetic Latitude ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
High Solar Activity ◽  
Electron Content ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Total Electron ◽  
The Neural Network ◽  
Winter Anomaly

With the availability of fast computing machines, as well as the advancement of machine learning techniques and Big Data algorithms, the development of a more sophisticated total electron content (TEC) model featuring the Nighttime Winter Anomaly (NWA) and other effects is possible and is presented here. The NWA is visible in the Northern Hemisphere for the American sector and in the Southern Hemisphere for the Asian longitude sector under solar minimum conditions. During the NWA, the mean ionization level is found to be higher in the winter nights compared to the summer nights. The approach proposed here is a fully connected neural network (NN) model trained with Global Ionosphere Maps (GIMs) data from the last two solar cycles. The day of year, universal time, geographic longitude, geomagnetic latitude, solar zenith angle, and solar activity proxy, F10.7, were used as the input parameters for the model. The model was tested with independent TEC datasets from the years 2015 and 2020, representing high solar activity (HSA) and low solar activity (LSA) conditions. Our investigation shows that the root mean squared (RMS) deviations are in the order of 6 and 2.5 TEC units during HSA and LSA period, respectively. Additionally, NN model results were compared with another model, the Neustrelitz TEC Model (NTCM). We found that the neural network model outperformed the NTCM by approximately 1 TEC unit. More importantly, the NN model can reproduce the evolution of the NWA effect during low solar activity, whereas the NTCM model cannot reproduce such effect in the TEC variation.

scholarly journals Methods of detection of changes in the distribution of observed statistics of time derivatives of the total electron content because of cycle slips in navigation satellite’s signals

2019 ◽  
Vol 30 ◽  
pp. 15007
Author(s):  
George Minasyan ◽  
Ivan Nesterov ◽  
Yaroslav Ilyushin
Keyword(s):  
Total Electron Content ◽  
Satellite System ◽  
Electron Content ◽  
Total Electron ◽  
Cycle Slips ◽  
Phase Data ◽  
Total Electronic Content ◽  
Global Navigation Satellite ◽  
Electronic Content ◽  
Derivatives Of

Based on the analysis of the phase data of the global navigation satellite system, distributions of time derivatives of the L1 phase frequency and the total electronic content are obtained. The change in the distributions of observed statistics of time derivatives of the total electron content was analyzed, because there are cycle slips in signals of navigation satellites. According to the analysis of the statistics of the phase of signals, an assumption about the physical and technical reasons for phase failures was made. The correlation between time derivatives of the phase signals and the total electron content has been obtained, despite the apparent dependence of the latter on the phase of the signal. This ratio showed that neither direct nor inverse dependence of the change in the distribution of time derivatives in both of quantities was found.

scholarly journals Ionospheric corrections tailored to the Galileo High Accuracy Service

2021 ◽  
Vol 95 (12) ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Rovira-Garcia ◽  
C. C. Timoté ◽  
J. M. Juan ◽  
J. Sanz ◽  
G. González-Casado ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Satellite Orbit ◽  
Satellite System ◽  
High Accuracy ◽  
Integer Ambiguity ◽  
Electron Content ◽  
Confidence Bounds ◽  
Total Electron ◽  
Phase Measurements ◽  
Model Geometry ◽  
Global Navigation Satellite

AbstractThe Galileo High Accuracy Service (HAS) is a new capability of the European Global Navigation Satellite System that is currently under development. The Galileo HAS will start providing satellite orbit and clock corrections (i.e. non-dispersive effects) and soon it will also correct dispersive effects such as inter-frequency biases and, in its full capability, ionospheric delay. We analyse here an ionospheric correction system based on the fast precise point positioning (Fast-PPP) and its potential application to the Galileo HAS. The aim of this contribution is to present some recent upgrades to the Fast-PPP model, with the emphasis on the model geometry and the data used. The results show the benefits of integer ambiguity resolution to obtain unambiguous carrier phase measurements as input to compute the Fast-PPP model. Seven permanent stations are used to assess the errors of the Fast-PPP ionospheric corrections, with baseline distances ranging from 100 to 1000 km from the reference receivers used to compute the Fast-PPP corrections. The 99% of the GPS and Galileo errors in well-sounded areas and in mid-latitude stations are below one total electron content unit. In addition, large errors are bounded by the error prediction of the Fast-PPP model, in the form of the variance of the estimation of the ionospheric corrections. Therefore, we conclude that Fast-PPP is able to provide ionospheric corrections with the required ionospheric accuracy, and realistic confidence bounds, for the Galileo HAS.

scholarly journals MONITORING OF IONOSPHERIC SCINTILLATION PHENOMENA USING SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR (SAR)

2018 ◽  
Vol IV-5 ◽  
pp. 331-337
Author(s):  
S. Mohanty ◽  
C. Carrano ◽  
G. Singh
Keyword(s):  
Satellite System ◽  
Synthetic Aperture ◽  
Ionospheric Scintillation ◽  
Electron Content ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Low Frequencies ◽  
Total Electron ◽  
Gnss Receiver ◽  
Synthetic Aperture Radars ◽  
Global Navigation Satellite

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> The applications of synthetic aperture radars (SAR) have increased manifold in the past decade, which includes numerous Earth observation applications such as agriculture, forestry, disaster monitoring cryospheric- and atmospheric- studies. Among them, the potential of SAR for ionospheric studies is gaining importance. The susceptibility of SAR to space weather dynamics, and ionosphere in particular, comes at low frequencies of L- and P-bands. This paper discusses one such scintillation event that was observed by L-band Advanced Land Observation Satellite (ALOS)-2 Phased Array L-type SAR (PALSAR) over southern India on March 23, 2015. The sensors also acquired data sets on four other days on which the ionosphere was quiet. Ionospheric parameter measurements of total electron content (TEC) and amplitude scintillation (S<sub>4</sub>) index from ground-based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receiver at Tirunelveli was used to establish the ionospheric conditions on the days of SAR acquisition as well as to corroborate the S<sub>4</sub> estimated from SAR. Multi-temporal ALOS-2 data sets were utilized to calculate S<sub>4</sub> from two separate methods and the results have a good agreement with GNSS receiver measurements. This highlights the potential of SAR as an alternate technique of monitoring ionospheric scintillations that can be utilized as complementary to the highly accurate and dedicated measurements from the GNSS networks.</p>

A New Approach to Monitoring the Interplanetary Shock Induced Pulse: TEC Measurements by the GNSS Receiver Network

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xingran Chen ◽  
Quanhan Li ◽  
Qiugang Zong ◽  
Yongqiang Hao
Keyword(s):  
Propagation Speed ◽  
Interplanetary Shock ◽  
Satellite System ◽  
Wave Form ◽  
Electron Content ◽  
Shock Pulse ◽  
Total Electron ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Gnss Receivers ◽  
Global Navigation Satellite

&lt;p&gt;We revisit the typical interplanetary shock event on November 7, 2004, with high resolution total electron content (TEC) measurements obtained by the distributed Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers. TEC impulses were observed after the IP shock impinged on the dayside agnetosphere at ~18:27 UT. In view of the similarity of the wave form and the time-delay characteristics, the TEC impulses were regarded as responses to the IP shock, despite the small amplitude (in the order of 0.4 TECU). Particularly, the peak of the TEC impulse was first observed by the receivers located around 120&amp;#176;W geographic longitude (corresponding to noon magnetic local time), while receivers at both sides recorded the impulse sequentially afterwards. From the timedelay of the TEC impulse, we derive the propagation velocity of the shock induced pulse. The angular velocity of the pulse is estimated to be ~2 degree per second, which is in the same order as the propagation speed of a typical shock pulse in the magnetosphere. Our results present global observational features of the shock pulse and provide new aspects to understand the ionospheric-magnetospheric dynamics in response to IP shocks.&lt;/p&gt;

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