scholarly journals Remaining Useful Life Estimation through Deep Learning Partial Differential Equation Models: A Framework for Degradation Dynamics Interpretation Using Latent Variables

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Sergio Cofre-Martel ◽  
Enrique Lopez Droguett ◽  
Mohammad Modarres
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Latent Variables ◽  
Latent Variable ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Space Representation ◽  
Health State ◽  
Partial Differential ◽  
Unseen Data ◽  
Useful Life

Remaining useful life (RUL) estimation is one of the main objectives of prognostics and health management (PHM) frameworks. For the past decade, researchers have explored the application of deep learning (DL) regression algorithms to predict the system’s health state behavior based on sensor readings from the monitoring system. Although the state-of-art results have been achieved in benchmark problems, most DL-PHM algorithms are treated as black-box functions, giving little-to-no control over data interpretation. This becomes an issue when the models unknowingly break the governing laws of physics when no constraints are imposed. The latest research efforts have focused on applying complex DL models to achieve low prediction errors rather than studying how they interpret the data’s behavior and the system itself. This paper proposes an open-box approach using a deep neural network framework to explore the physics of a complex system’s degradation through partial differential equations (PDEs). This proposed framework is an attempt to bridge the gap between statistic-based PHM and physics-based PHM. The framework has three stages, and it aims to discover the health state of the system through a latent variable while still providing a RUL estimation. Results show that the latent variable can capture the failure modes of the system. A latent space representation can also be used as a health state estimator through a random forest classifier with up to a 90% performance on new unseen data.

Failure Modes Mechanisms Effects Analysis for Refrigeration Device

2013 ◽  
Vol 288 ◽  
pp. 69-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ren Xiao Xu ◽  
Yang Liu
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Life Cycle Management ◽  
State Assessment ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Automatic Identification ◽  
Health State ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Fusion Approach

FMMEA (failure mode, mechanisms, and effects analysis) is an effective tool for the life-cycle management of products and devices. We conducted an FMMEA for a refrigeration device at the request of a corporation. This paper demonstrates the process of our analysis of the compressor by employing Ganesan’s methodology. The results are listed in a table, including the physics of failures, risk priorities and parameters for monitoring. This paper also provides health-state assessment approaches based on FMMEA results and values of relevant parameters using fusion approach. Such assessment can be used for remaining useful life (RUL) estimation. Additionally, the paper illustrates our approach of computer-program-based automatic identification of failure using data of parameters retrieved from sensors.

scholarly journals Sensor-Based Degradation Prediction and Prognostics for Remaining Useful Life Estimation: Validation on Experimental Data of Electric Motors

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Federico Barbieri ◽  
J. Wesley Hines ◽  
Michael Sharp ◽  
Mauro Venturini
Keyword(s):  
Failure Modes ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Optimization Methods ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Path Model ◽  
Health State ◽  
Prognostic Parameter ◽  
Accelerated Degradation ◽  
Useful Life

Prognostics is an emerging science of predicting the health condition of a system and/or its components, based upon current and previous system status, with the ultimate goal of accurate prediction of the Remaining Useful Life (RUL). Based on this assumption, components/systems can be monitored to track the health state during operation. Acquired data are generally processed to extract relevant features related to the degradation condition of the component/system. Often, it is beneficial to combine several of these degradation parameters through an optimization process to develop a single parameter, called prognostic parameter, which can be trended to estimate the RUL. The approach adopted in this paper consists of a prognostic procedure which involves prognostic parameter generation and General Path Model (GPM) prediction. The Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) optimization methods will be used to develop suitable prognostic parameters from the selected features. Both time and frequency domain analysis will be investigated. Steady-state data obtained from electric motor accelerated degradation testing is used for method validation. Ten three-phase 5HP induction were run through temperature and humidity accelerated degradation cycles on a weekly basis. Of those, five presented similar degradation pathways due to bearing failure modes. The results show that the OLS method, on average, generated the best prognostic parameter performance using a combination of time domain features. However, the best single model performance was obtained using the GA methodology. In this case, the estimated RUL nearly coincided with the true RUL with an absolute percent error averaging under 5% near the end of life.

scholarly journals RUL Estimation Enhancement using Hybrid Deep Learning Methods

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ikram Remadna ◽  
Labib Sadek Terrissa ◽  
Soheyb Ayad ◽  
Nourddine Zerhouni
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Hybrid Methods ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Health State ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Turbofan Engines ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
Behavior Health

The turbofan engine is one of the most critical aircraft components. Its failure may introduce unwanted downtime, expensive repair, and affect safety performance. Therefore, It is essential to accurately detect upcoming failures by predicting the future behavior health state of turbofan engines as well as its Remaining Useful Life. The use of deep learning techniques to estimate Remaining Useful Life has seen a growing interest over the last decade. However, hybrid deep learning methods have not been sufficiently explored yet by researchers.In this paper, we proposed two-hybrid methods combining Convolutional Auto-encoder (CAE), Bi-directional Gated Recurrent Unit (BDGRU), Bi-directional Long-Short Term Memory (BDLSTM), and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to enhance the RUL estimation. The results indicate that the hybrid methods exhibit the most reliable RUL prediction accuracy and significantly outperform the most robust predictions in the literature.

scholarly journals Fault Diagnosis and Prognosis Based on Deep Belief Network and Particle Filtering

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Guangxing Niu ◽  
Shije Tang ◽  
Zhichao Liu ◽  
Guangquan Zhao ◽  
Bin Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Fault Diagnosis ◽  
Particle Filtering ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Health State ◽  
Diagnosis And Prognosis ◽  
Fault Dynamics ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
Fault Diagnosis And Prognosis

Fault diagnosis and prognosis (FDP) plays more and more important role in industries FDP aims to estimate current fault condition and then predict the remaining useful life (RUL). Based on the estimation of health state and RUL, essential decisions on maintenance, control, and planning can be conducted optimally in terms of economy, efficiency, and availability. With the increase of system complexity, it becomes more and more difficult to model the fault dynamics, especially for multiple interacting fault modes and for fault modes that are affected by many internal and external factors. With the development of machine learning and big data, deep learning algorithms become important tools in FDP due to their excellent performance in data processing, information extraction, and automatic modeling. In the past a few years, deep learning algorithms demonstrate outstanding performance in feature extraction and learning fault dynamics. As emerging techniques, their powerful learning capabilities attract more and more attentions and have been extended to various applications. This work presents a novel diagnosis and prognosis methodology which combined deep belief networks (DBNs) and Bayesian estimation. In the proposed work, the DBNs are trained offline using available historical data. The fault dynamic model is then represented by the trained DBNs and modeling uncertainty is described by noise. The integration of DBNs with particle filtering is then developed to provide an estimation of the current fault state and predict the remaining useful life, which is very suitable and efficient for most nonlinear fault models. Experimental studies of lithium-ion batteries are presented to verify the effectiveness of the proposed solution.

scholarly journals Predicting Remaining Useful Life of Rolling Bearings Based on Reliable Degradation Indicator and Temporal Convolution Network with the Quantile Regression

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 4773
Author(s):  
Qiaoping Tian ◽  
Honglei Wang
Keyword(s):  
Quantile Regression ◽  
Probability Density ◽  
Degradation Process ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Health State ◽  
Rolling Bearings ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Time Frequency ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
Degradation Indicator

High precision and multi information prediction results of bearing remaining useful life (RUL) can effectively describe the uncertainty of bearing health state and operation state. Aiming at the problem of feature efficient extraction and RUL prediction during rolling bearings operation degradation process, through data reduction and key features mining analysis, a new feature vector based on time-frequency domain joint feature is found to describe the bearings degradation process more comprehensively. In order to keep the effective information without increasing the scale of neural network, a joint feature compression calculation method based on redefined degradation indicator (DI) was proposed to determine the input data set. By combining the temporal convolution network with the quantile regression (TCNQR) algorithm, the probability density forecasting at any time is achieved based on kernel density estimation (KDE) for the conditional distribution of predicted values. The experimental results show that the proposed method can obtain the point prediction results with smaller errors. Compared with the existing quantile regression of long short-term memory network(LSTMQR), the proposed method can construct more accurate prediction interval and probability density curve, which can effectively quantify the uncertainty of bearing running state.

scholarly journals A critical review of improved deep learning methods for the remaining useful life prediction of lithium-ion batteries

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. 5562-5574 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shunli Wang ◽  
Siyu Jin ◽  
Dekui Bai ◽  
Yongcun Fan ◽  
Haotian Shi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Lithium Ion Batteries ◽  
Critical Review ◽  
Life Prediction ◽  
Lithium Ion ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Useful Life

scholarly journals A Hybrid Prognostics Deep Learning Model for Remaining Useful Life Prediction

Electronics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 39
Author(s):  
Zhiyuan Xie ◽  
Shichang Du ◽  
Jun Lv ◽  
Yafei Deng ◽  
Shiyao Jia
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Learning Model ◽  
Recurrent Network ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
Deep Learning Model

Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction is significant in indicating the health status of the sophisticated equipment, and it requires historical data because of its complexity. The number and complexity of such environmental parameters as vibration and temperature can cause non-linear states of data, making prediction tremendously difficult. Conventional machine learning models such as support vector machine (SVM), random forest, and back propagation neural network (BPNN), however, have limited capacity to predict accurately. In this paper, a two-phase deep-learning-model attention-convolutional forget-gate recurrent network (AM-ConvFGRNET) for RUL prediction is proposed. The first phase, forget-gate convolutional recurrent network (ConvFGRNET) is proposed based on a one-dimensional analog long short-term memory (LSTM), which removes all the gates except the forget gate and uses chrono-initialized biases. The second phase is the attention mechanism, which ensures the model to extract more specific features for generating an output, compensating the drawbacks of the FGRNET that it is a black box model and improving the interpretability. The performance and effectiveness of AM-ConvFGRNET for RUL prediction is validated by comparing it with other machine learning methods and deep learning methods on the Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation (C-MAPSS) dataset and a dataset of ball screw experiment.

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