Abstract 13274: Predictors of Mortality in Critically Ill Covid-19 Patients - A Multicenter Prospective Analysis of 159 Patients
Introduction: Certain patient demographics and biomarkers have been shown to predict survival in patients infected with COVID-19. However, predictors of outcome in patients who are critically ill and require advanced respiratory support are unclear. Methods: We performed a multicenter analysis of 159 consecutive patients with confirmed COVID-19 who were admitted to Intensive Care Unit (ICU) between March 01, 2020 and April 30, 2020. Patients were then followed until May 23, 2020. Demographic data (age, sex, race, BMI) and past medical history (hypertension, diabetes, COPD, CKD, history of cardiac ischemic disease, atrial fibrillation and heart failure) were recorded. Laboratory values (troponin, CPK, pro-BNP, ferritin, LDH and d-dimer) were analyzed. Patient status was classified as either alive or deceased at hospital discharge or the end of follow up period. Results: Mean patient age was 66+/-15 and 53% were male. Mean BMI was 31+/- 9. Mean hospital ICU stay was 11+/-8 days. Mortality rate of this ICU cohort at the end of follow-up was 63%. Fifty-five (34%) patients were discharged from the hospital. A multivariable logistic regression analysis identified four factors (age, prior history of diabetes, prior history of atrial fibrillation and elevated troponin) that had significant and independent contributions to the likelihood of survival. Each increase in decade of age above 40 (p = 0.010) was predicted to reduce survival by 30%, the presence of diabetes (p = 0.041) by 57%, a prior history of atrial fibrillation (p= 0.011) by 75%, and each increase of 0.1 ng/mL of troponin above 0.05 ng/ml (p = 0.001) by 55%. Conclusion: Mortality of critically ill COVID-19 patients is high. Early aggressive treatment of high-risk patients identified in this study (advanced age, history of diabetes and atrial fibrillation and elevated troponin) could improve clinical outcome. The highly predictive value of elevated troponin levels on survival may indicate cardiac involvement of COVID-19 infection as a determinant of mortality. Additionally, of available published literature at this time, this is the first study that suggests a relationship between atrial fibrillation and increased mortality from COVID-19. Larger studies are needed to confirm these findings.