Contemporary Clinical and Coronary Anatomic Risk Model for 30-Day Mortality After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacob A. Doll ◽  
Colin I. O’Donnell ◽  
Meg E. Plomondon ◽  
Stephen W. Waldo
Keyword(s):  
Percutaneous Coronary Intervention ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Coronary Intervention ◽  
Veterans Affairs ◽  
Syntax Score ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Percutaneous Coronary ◽  
Anatomic Information

Background: Percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) procedures are increasing in clinical and anatomic complexity, likely increasing the calculated risk of mortality. There is need for a real-time risk prediction tool that includes clinical and coronary anatomic information that is integrated into the electronic medical record system. Methods: We assessed 70 503 PCIs performed in 73 Veterans Affairs hospitals from 2008 to 2019. We used regression and machine-learning strategies to develop a prediction model for 30-day mortality following PCI. We assessed model performance with and without inclusion of the Veterans Affairs SYNTAX score (Synergy Between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery), an assessment of anatomic complexity. Finally, the discriminatory ability of the Veterans Affairs model was compared with the CathPCI mortality model. Results: The overall 30-day morality rate was 1.7%. The final model included 14 variables. Presentation status (salvage, emergent, urgent), ST-segment–elevation myocardial infarction, cardiogenic shock, age, congestive heart failure, prior valve disease, chronic kidney disease, chronic lung disease, atrial fibrillation, elevated international normalized ratio, and the Veterans Affairs SYNTAX score were all associated with increased risk of death, while increasing body mass index, hemoglobin level, and prior coronary artery bypass graft surgery were associated with lower risk of death. C-index for the development cohort was 0.93 (95% CI, 0.92–0.94) and for the 2019 validation cohort and the site validation cohort was 0.87 (95% CI, 0.83–0.92) and 0.86 (95% CI, 0.83–0.89), respectively. The positive likelihood ratio of predicting a mortality event in the top decile was 2.87% more accurate than the CathPCI mortality model. Inclusion of anatomic information in the model resulted in significant improvement in model performance (likelihood ratio test P <0.01). Conclusions: This contemporary risk model accurately predicts 30-day post-PCI mortality using a combination of clinical and anatomic variables. This can be immediately implemented into clinical practice to promote personalized informed consent discussions and appropriate preparation for high-risk PCI cases.

scholarly journals Adding Pre-procedural Glycemia to the Mehran Score Enhances Its Ability to Predict Contrast-induced Acute Kidney Injury in Patients With and Without Diabetes Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Annunziata Nusca ◽  
Fabio Mangiacapra ◽  
Alessandro Sticchi ◽  
Giovanni Polizzi ◽  
Giulia D’Acunto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Acute Kidney Injury ◽  
Percutaneous Coronary Intervention ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Kidney Injury ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Coronary Intervention ◽  
Derivation Cohort ◽  
Diabetic Status ◽  
Percutaneous Coronary

Abstract Background: The Mehran score is the most widely accepted tool for predicting contrast-induced acute kidney injury (CI-AKI), a major complication of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Similarly, abnormal fasting pre-procedural glycemia (FPG) represents a modifiable risk factor for CI-AKI, but it is not included in current risk models for CI-AKI prediction. We sought to analyze whether adding FPG to the Mehran score improves its ability to predict CI-AKI following PCI.Methods: We analyzed 671 consecutive patients undergoing PCI (age 69 [63,75] years, 23% females), regardless of their diabetic status, to derive a revised Mehran score obtained by including FPG in the original Mehran score (Derivation Cohort). The new risk model (GlyMehr) was externally validated in 673 consecutive patients (Validation Cohort) (age 69 [62,76] years, 21% females). Results: In the Derivation Cohort, both FPG and the original Mehran score predicted CI-AKI (AUC 0.703 and 0.673, respectively). The GlyMehr score showed a better predictive ability when compared with the Mehran score both in the Derivation Cohort (AUC 0.749, 95%CI 0.662-0.836; p=0.0016) and the Validation Cohort (AUC 0.848, 95%CI, 0.792–0.903; p=0.0008). In the overall population (n=1344), the GlyMehr score confirmed its independent and incremental predictive ability regardless of diabetic status (p≤0.0034) or unstable/stable coronary syndromes (p≤0.0272). Conclusions: Adding FPG to the Mehran score significantly enhances our ability to predict CI-AKI. The GlyMehr score may contribute to improve the clinical management of patients undergoing PCI by identifying those at high risk of CI-AKI and potentially detecting modifiable risk factors.

A Novel ABC Score Predicts Mortality in Non-ST-Segment Elevation Acute Coronary Syndrome Patients Who underwent Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying-Ying Zheng ◽  
Ting-Ting Wu ◽  
Ying Gao ◽  
Qian-Qian Guo ◽  
Yan-Yan Ma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Percutaneous Coronary Intervention ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Coronary Intervention ◽  
Abc Model ◽  
St Segment Elevation ◽  
Derivation Cohort ◽  
Coronary Syndrome ◽  
St Segment ◽  
Percutaneous Coronary

Abstract Objective In the present study, we aimed to establish a novel score to predict long-term mortality of non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS) patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Methods A total of 2,174 NSTE-ACS patients from the CORFCHD-ZZ study were enrolled as the derivation cohort. The validation cohort including 1,808 NSTE-ACS patients were from the CORFCHD-PCI study. Receiver operating characteristic analysis and area under the curve (AUC) evaluation were used to select the candidate variables. The model performance was validated internally and externally. The primary outcome was cardiac mortality (CM). We also explored the model performance for all-cause mortality (ACM). Results Initially, 28 risk factors were selected and ranked according to their AUC values. Finally, we selected age, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, and creatinine to develop a novel prediction model named “ABC” model. The ABC model had a high discriminatory ability for both CM (C-index: 0.774, p < 0.001) and ACM (C-index: 0.758, p < 0.001) in the derivation cohort. In the validation cohort, the C-index of CM was 0.802 (p < 0.001) and that of ACM was 0.797 (p < 0.001), which suggested good discrimination. In addition, this model had adequate calibration in both the derivation and validation cohorts. Furthermore, the ABC score outperformed the GRACE score to predict mortality in NSTE-ACS patients who underwent PCI. Conclusion In the present study, we developed and validated a novel model to predict mortality in patients with NSTE-ACS who underwent PCI. This model can be used as a credible tool for risk assessment and management of NSTE-ACS after PCI.

Clinical Implications of the SYNTAX Study

2009 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Serruys ◽  
Scot Garg ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Percutaneous Coronary Intervention ◽  
De Novo ◽  
Artery Bypass ◽  
Bypass Graft ◽  
Coronary Intervention ◽  
Syntax Score ◽  
Cerebrovascular Events ◽  
Percutaneous Coronary ◽  
Syntax Study ◽  
Better Than

Recent years have seen an ongoing debate as to whether coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery or percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is the most appropriate revascularisation strategy for patients with coronary heart disease (CAD). The Synergy between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention with TAXUS and Cardiac Surgery (SYNTAX) study was conducted with the intention of defining the specific roles of each therapy in the management of de novo three-vessel disease or left main CAD. Interim results after 12 months show that PCI leads to significantly higher rates of major adverse cardiac or cerebrovascular events compared with CABG (17.8 versus 12.4; p=0.002), largely owing to increased rates of repeat revascularisation. However, CABG was much more likely to lead to stroke. Interestingly, categorisation of patients by severity of CAD complexity according to the SYNTAX score has shown that there are certain patients in whom PCI can yield results that are comparable to, if not better than, those achieved with CABG. Careful clinical evaluation and comprehensive assessment of CAD severity, alongside application of the SYNTAX score, can aid practitioners in selecting the most suitable therapy for each individual CAD patient.

TWILIGHT: A Randomized Trial of Ticagrelor Monotherapy Versus Ticagrelor Plus Aspirin Beginning at 3 Months in High-risk Patients Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johny Nicolas ◽  
Usman Baber ◽  
Roxana Mehran
Keyword(s):  
Percutaneous Coronary Intervention ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Antiplatelet Therapy ◽  
Dual Antiplatelet Therapy ◽  
Coronary Intervention ◽  
Bleeding Events ◽  
High Risk Patients ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Percutaneous Coronary ◽  
Risk Patients

A P2Y12 inhibitor-based monotherapy after a short period of dual antiplatelet therapy is emerging as a plausible strategy to decrease bleeding events in high-risk patients receiving dual antiplatelet therapy after percutaneous coronary intervention. Ticagrelor With Aspirin or Alone in High-Risk Patients After Coronary Intervention (TWILIGHT), a randomized double-blind trial, tested this approach by dropping aspirin at 3 months and continuing with ticagrelor monotherapy for an additional 12 months. The study enrolled 9,006 patients, of whom 7,119 who tolerated 3 months of dual antiplatelet therapy were randomized after 3 months into two arms: ticagrelor plus placebo and ticagrelor plus aspirin. The primary endpoint of interest, Bleeding Academic Research Consortium type 2, 3, or 5 bleeding, occurred less frequently in the experimental arm (HR 0.56; 95% CI [0.45–0.68]; p<0.001), whereas the secondary endpoint of ischemic events was similar between the two arms (HR 0.99; 95% CI [0.78–1.25]). Transition from dual antiplatelet therapy consisting of ticagrelor plus aspirin to ticagrelor-based monotherapy in high-risk patients at 3 months after percutaneous coronary intervention resulted in a lower risk of bleeding events without an increase in risk of death, MI, or stroke.

scholarly journals Prognostic Value of D-dimer in patients with acute coronary syndrome treated by percutaneous coronary intervention: a retrospective cohort study

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Runzhen Chen ◽  
Chen Liu ◽  
Peng Zhou ◽  
Yu Tan ◽  
Zhaoxue Sheng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Percutaneous Coronary Intervention ◽  
Prognostic Value ◽  
Coronary Intervention ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Clinical Risk ◽  
Percutaneous Coronary ◽  
D Dimer

Abstract Background Associations between D-dimer and outcomes of patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS) remain controversial. This study aimed to investigate the prognostic value of D-dimer in ACS patients treated by percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Methods In this observational study, 3972 consecutive patients with ACS treated by PCI were retrospectively recruited. The X-tile program was used to determine the optimal D-dimer thresholds for risk stratifications. Cox regression with multiple adjustments was used for outcome analysis. Restricted cubic spline (RCS) analysis was performed to assess the dose-response association between D-dimer and outcomes. The C-index was calculated to evaluate the additional prognostic value of D-dimer when added to clinical risk factors and commonly used clinical risk scores, with internal validations using bootstrapping methods. The primary outcome was all-cause death. Results During a median follow-up of 720 days, 225 deaths occurred. Based on the thresholds generated by X-tile, ACS-PCI patients with median (420–1150 ng/mL, hazard ratio [HR]: 1.58, 95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.14–2.20, P = 0.007) and high (≥ 1150 ng/mL, HR: 1.98, 95 % CI: 1.36–2.89, P < 0.001) levels of D-dimer showed substantially higher risk of death compared to those with low D-dimer (< 420 ng/mL). RCS analysis depicted a constant relation between D-dimer and various outcomes. The addition of D-dimer levels significantly improved risk predictions for all-cause death when combined with the fully adjusted models (C-index: 0.853 vs. 0.845, P difference = 0.021), the GRACE score (C-index: 0.826 vs. 0.814, P difference = 0.027), and the TIMI score (C-index: 0.804 vs. 0.776, P difference < 0.001). The predicted mortality at the median follow-up (two years) was 1.7 %, 5.2 %, and 10.9 % for patients with low, median, and high D-dimer, respectively, which was well matched with the observed mortality (low D-dimer group: 1.2 %, median D-dimer group: 5.2 %, and high D-dimer group: 12.6 %). Conclusions For ACS patients treated by PCI, D-dimer level was an independent predictor for adverse outcomes, and provided additional prognostic value when combined with clinical risk factors and risk scores. Risk stratifications based on D-dimer was plausible to differentiate ACS-PCI patients with higher risk of death.

scholarly journals The effect of unguided de-escalation of P2Y12 receptor inhibitor therapy after acute myocardial infarction in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention: a nationwide cohort study

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
J.S Yeh ◽  
C.Y Hsu ◽  
C.Y Huang ◽  
W.T Chen ◽  
Y.C Hsieh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Acute Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Percutaneous Coronary Intervention ◽  
Coronary Intervention ◽  
Bleeding Complications ◽  
Funding Source ◽  
P2y12 Inhibitor ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Percutaneous Coronary ◽  
Significant Difference

Abstract Aims To examine the effect of de-escalation of P2Y12 inhibitor in dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) on major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and bleeding complications after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in Taiwanese patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Methods and results We retrospectively evaluated patients who had received PCI during AMI hospitalisation and were initially on aspirin and ticagrelor and without adverse events at 3 months between 2013 and 2016. In total, 1,901 and 8,199 patients were identified as switched DAPT (switched to aspirin and clopidogrel) and unswitched DAPT (continued on aspirin and ticagrelor) cohorts, respectively. With a mean follow-up of 8 months, the incidence rates (per 100 person-year) of death, AMI readmission and MACE were 2.89, 3.68 and 4.91 in the switched cohort and 2.42, 3.28 and 4.72 in the unswitched cohort, respectively based on an inverse probability of treatment weighted method. (Table) After adjustment for patients' clinical variables, two groups were no significant difference in death (A), AMI admission (B) and MACE (C). Additionally, there was no difference in the risk of major (D) or non-major clinically relevant bleeding (E) (Figure 1). Conclusions Unguided de-escalation of P2Y12 inhibitor in DAPT was not associated with higher risk of death, MACE, AMI readmission in Taiwanese patients with AMI undergoing PCI. Figure 1 Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Private hospital(s). Main funding source(s): Taipei Medical University

Abstract 11324: Immediate Percutaneous Coronary Intervention in Patients with Refractory Out of Hospital Cardiac Arrest

Circulation ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 144 (Suppl_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Rob ◽  
Jana Smalcova ◽  
Tomas Kovarnik ◽  
David Zemanek ◽  
Ales Kral ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Percutaneous Coronary Intervention ◽  
Cardiac Arrest ◽  
Lower Risk ◽  
Coronary Intervention ◽  
Post Hoc Analysis ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Coronary Syndrome ◽  
Percutaneous Coronary ◽  
Post Hoc ◽  
Hospital Cardiac Arrest

Background: An increasing number of cardiac centres are using immediate percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR) in patients with refractory out of hospital cardiac arrest (r-OHCA). Published evidence regarding PCI in OHCA has been mainly reporting to patients with early return of spontaneous circulation and the influence of PCI and ECPR on survival in the population of patients with r-OHCA and acute coronary syndrome (ACS) remains unclear. Methods: In this post hoc analysis of the randomized r-OHCA trial, all patients with ACS as a cause of r-OHCA were included. The effect of successful PCI and ECPR on 180-days survival was examined using Kaplan-Meier estimates and multivariable Cox regression. Results: In total, 256 patients were evaluated in Prague OHCA study and 127 (49.6 %) had ACS as the cause of r-OHCA constituting current study population. The mean age was 58 years (46.3-64) and duration of resuscitation was 52.5 minutes (36.5-68). ECPR was used in 51 (40.2 %) of patients. Immediate PCI was performed in 86 (67.7%) patients and TIMI flow 2 or 3 was achieved in 75 (87.2%) patients. The overall 180-days survival of patients with successful PCI was 40 % compared to 7.7 % with no or failed immediate PCI (log-rank p < 0.001). After adjustment for confounders, successful PCI was associated with a lower risk of death (HR 0.47, CI 0.24-0.93, p = 0.031). Likewise, ECPR was associated with a lower risk of death (HR 0.11, CI 0.05-0.24, p< 0.001). Conclusion: In this post hoc analysis of the randomized r-OHCA trial, successful immediate PCI as well as ECPR were associated with improved 180-days survival in patients with r-OHCA due to ACS.

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