Financial Crisis American Style

2009 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 146-170 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barry Bosworth ◽  
Aaron Flaaen
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mortgage Market ◽  
Secondary Market ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Regulatory Structure ◽  
Public Deficit ◽  
Export Sector ◽  
The U.S

This paper reviews some of the research on the causes of the financial crisis of 2008–09, highlights the key events that triggered a financial panic in September 2008, and summarizes the key policy actions that the United States has taken to ameliorate the crisis. We document the characteristics and growth of the sub-prime mortgage market, and the distorted incentives and flawed regulatory structure surrounding the secondary market for mortgage-backed securities. We also assess the role for macroeconomic determinants of the crisis that serve to explain the bubble in U.S. asset prices, most notably low global interest rates attributed to either loose monetary policy or excess global saving. Although low global interest rates may have contributed to the boom in housing markets and speculative excesses, we believe that the financial innovations and microeconomic distortions played a more fundamental role. Finally, a recovery marked by higher private saving, weak domestic investment, and a large public deficit appears to be unsustainable. Ultimately, the U.S. economy will need to shift about 3 percent of GDP from domestic consumption to the export sector. This will pose some serious challenges to Asian economies that have come to rely on exports to the U.S. market.

scholarly journals Mortgage Securitization and Shadow Bank Lending

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedro Gete ◽  
Michael Reher
Keyword(s):  
Cross Section ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Mortgage Market ◽  
Secondary Market ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Coverage Ratio ◽  
Regulatory Status ◽  
Mortgage Securitization ◽  
The U.S

Abstract We show how securitization affects the size of the nonbank lending sector through a novel price-based channel. We identify the channel using a regulatory spillover shock to the cross-section of mortgage-backed security prices: the U.S. liquidity coverage ratio. The shock increases secondary market prices for FHA-insured loans by granting them favorable regulatory status once securitized. Higher prices lower nonbanks’ funding costs, prompting them to loosen lending standards and originate more FHA-insured loans. This channel accounts for 22% of nonbanks’ growth in overall mortgage market share over 2013–2015. While the shock creates risks for financial stability, homeownership also increases.

scholarly journals Forecasting Term Structure of Interest Rates in Japan

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ishii
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Forecast Horizon ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Long Period ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Dns Model

In this paper, we examined and compared the forecast performances of the dynamic Nelson–Siegel (DNS), dynamic Nelson–Siegel–Svensson (DNSS), and arbitrage-free Nelson–Siegel (AFNS) models after the financial crisis period. The best model for the forecast performance is the DNSS model in the middle and long periods. The AFNS is inferior to the DNS model for long-period forecasting. In U.S. bond markets, AFNS is shown to be superior to DNS in the U.S. However, for Japanese data, there is no evidence that the AFNS is superior to the DNS model in the long forecast horizon.

scholarly journals The Effects of Quantitative Easing Announcements on the Mortgage Market: An Event Study Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Event Study ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mortgage Market ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Study Approach ◽  
Mortgage Rate ◽  
Mortgage Securities ◽  
The Impact ◽  
T Distribution

This paper uses event study analysis to estimate the impact of the United States Federal Reserve Bank’s (Fed) quantitative easing (QE) announcements on the mortgage market during the zero lower bound (ZLB) period. A total of 35 QE announcements are identified and their effects are evaluated. The best-fitting integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (IGARCH) model with skewed t distribution is used to measure the QE announcement effects on daily changes of the 30-year mortgage rate, the 30-year Treasury rate and the spread between them. Announcements suggesting the start of a new round of QE reduced the mortgage rate tremendously, while the effects of further news diminished. Announcements of an increase in mortgage-backed security purchases decreased the mortgage rate more than the Treasury rate and reduced the credit risk of holding mortgage securities over Treasury securities. The delayed effects of QE announcements on the mortgage rate were less than short-run effects but persistent. We also find that the previous literature overestimates QE effects on interest rates in general.

scholarly journals The Political Economy of the Budget Surplus in the United States

2000 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 3-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alberto Alesina
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
The United States ◽  
Defense Spending ◽  
The Political ◽  
Budget Balance ◽  
Political Forces ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
The U.S

Current surpluses in the U.S. have been achieved by a combination of a strong economy, low interest rates, and sharp cuts in defense spending. These surpluses follow a period (the 1980s) of rather exceptional budget deficit. This paper investigates the origin, size, and expected future patterns of the U.S. budget balance. It discusses how different political forces may generate alternative fiscal scenarios for the U.S. in the next decade.

Assessing The Impact Of The Global Financial Crisis On GCC Countries

2010 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hisham H. Abdelbaki
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The United States ◽  
Font Size ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Gcc Countries ◽  
The World ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; margin: 0in 27pt 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span style="color: #0d0d0d; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-EG;">No doubt, the </span><span style="color: #0d0d0d; font-size: 10pt;">international financial crisis that started in the United States of America will cast its effects on all countries of the world, developed and developing. Yet these effects vary from one country to another for several reasons. The GCC countries would not escape these negative effects of this severe crisis. The negative effects of the crisis on gulf countries come from many aspects: first, decrease in price of oil on whose revenues the development programs in these countries depend; second, decrease in the value of US$ and the subsequent decrease in the assets owned by these countries in US$; third, a case of economic stagnation will prevail in the world with effects starting to appear. </span><span style="color: #0d0d0d; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-EG;">It is obvious that this would be reflected on the real sector in the economies causing a series of negative effects through decrease of the world demand for exports of GCC countries of oil, petrochemicals and aluminum.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>Lastly, increased inflation rates with decreased interest rates will result in a decrease in real interest with an accompanying decrease in incentives for saving and consequently investment and economic development. The main aim of the research is to assess the economic effects of the global financial crisis on GCC countries. The paper results are that the big reserves of foreign currencies achieved by the GCC countries in the past few years have helped increase their ability to bear the effects of the financial effects on one hand and their ability to adopt expansionary policies through pumping liquidity to absorb the regressive effects of the crisis on the other. The paper recommends the necessity of taking precautionary procedures for the effects which will result from the expansionary policies effective in GCC countries. <strong></strong></span></span></p>

scholarly journals The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits

1989 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 37-54 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert J Barro
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Alternative Theory ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Large Current ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Ricardian Approach ◽  
David Ricardo ◽  
Harmful Effects ◽  
The U.S

In recent years there has been a lot of discussion about U.S. budget deficits. Many economists and other observers have viewed these deficits as harmful to the U.S. and world economies. The supposed harmful effects include high real interest rates, low saving, low rates of economic growth, large current-account deficits in the United States and other countries with large budget deficits, and either a high or low dollar (depending apparently on the time period). This crisis scenario has been hard to maintain along with the robust performance of the U.S. economy since late 1982. Persistent budget deficits have increased economists' interest in theories and evidence about fiscal policy. At the same time, the conflict between standard predictions and actual outcomes in the U.S. economy has, I think, increased economists' willingness to consider approaches that depart from the standard paradigm. In this paper, I will focus on the alternative theory that is associated with the name of David Ricardo.

The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Central Banking

2019 ◽  
pp. 170-192
Author(s):  
Alex Cukierman
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The United States ◽  
Central Banking ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Regulatory Reforms

This chapter describes the impacts of the global financial crisis on monetary policy and institutions. It argues that during the crisis, financial stability took precedence over traditional inflation targeting and discusses the emergence of unconventional policy instruments such as quantitative easing (QE), forex market interventions, negative interest rates, and forward guidance. It describes the interaction between the zero lower bound (ZLB) and QE, and proposals, such as raising the inflation target, to alleviate the ZLB constraint. The chapter discusses the consequences of the relative passivity of fiscal policies, “helicopter money,” and 100 percent reserve requirement. The crisis triggered regulatory reforms in which central banks’ objectives were expanded to encompass macroprudential regulation. The chapter evaluates recent regulatory reforms in the United States, the euro area, and the United Kingdom. It presents data on new net credit formation during the crisis and discusses implications for exit policies.

Debt Trends and Future Outlook

2019 ◽  
pp. 699-715
Author(s):  
Dianna Preece
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Student Loans ◽  
The United States ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Debt Markets ◽  
Public And Private Sector ◽  
Domestic Products ◽  
Roll Back ◽  
The U.S

The United States had a combined $47 trillion of public and private sector debt outstanding in the third quarter of 2016. This staggering figure is larger than many countries’ gross domestic products (GDPs) combined. Borrowers include the U.S. government, businesses, and households. The debt is held by both domestic and foreign investors. The amount of debt affects everything from a country’s ability to grow to an individual’s ability to get married or buy a home when saddled with crushing student loans. In early 2018, the most notable trends in debt markets include increased borrowing across all sectors and rising interest rates that will affect the ability of some borrowers to repay their debts. These trends are not just domestic, but global, as the U.S. Federal Reserve begins to roll back a decade-long period of quantitative easing and other central banks are likely to soon follow. This chapter considers trends in debt markets and their implications for the future.

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