Constraining Elites: The Impact of Treaty Networks on Foreign Policy

2015 ◽  
Vol 42 (3) ◽  
pp. 298-320
Author(s):  
Michael O. Slobodchikoff
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Network Analysis ◽  
Eastern Europe ◽  
European Integration ◽  
Political Elites ◽  
Customs Union ◽  
Association Agreement ◽  
Treaty Networks ◽  
Bilateral Treaties ◽  
The Impact

In democracies, elites should be responsive to public opinion. This is especially true in Eastern Europe, where politicians fear electoral sanctions in the process of reform (Roberts and Kim 2011). Public opinion in general in Eastern Europe has been overwhelmingly in favor of European integration (Caplanova et al. 2004). In Ukraine, public opinion was in favor of increased cooperation with the eu, while in Moldova, public opinion was in favor of increased cooperation with the Russian led Customs Union. Ukraine refused to sign an association agreement with the eu, while Moldova enthusiastically signed the same association agreement. Why should both Ukrainian and Moldovan political elites have chosen not to be responsive to public opinion in such an important decision? Using network analysis of bilateral treaties between Russia and Moldova and Russia and Ukraine, I predict the responsiveness of political elites to public opinion toward European integration. I argue that the denser a treaty network between a weaker state and the regional hegemon, the less likely political elites will be to cooperate and move toward European integration. Conversely, less dense treaty networks allow politicians more flexibility in following their own preferences. Further, I offer a prediction for other states in the fsu to seek further cooperation with the eu.

THE FAILURE TO SIGN THE UKRAINE-EU ASSOCIATION AGREEMENT (OCTOBER-NOVEMBER 2013)

2019 ◽  
pp. 30-45
Author(s):  
V. I. Denysenko
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
European Integration ◽  
Trade Unions ◽  
Main Role ◽  
Ruling Elite ◽  
Association Agreement ◽  
Russian President ◽  
The Government ◽  
Vladimir Putin ◽  
The Eu

The failure to sign the Association Agreement with the EU in autumn 2013 has been investigated. The role of the Russian factor, which became decisive in the foreign policy reversal of the Yanukovych regime, has been revealed. The importance of Viktor Yanukovych’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on October 27, 2013, in the dramatic change of Ukraine’s international vector has been emphasized. On the basis of diplomats’ memoirs, the assumption about intimidation of the Ukrainian President by the Russian side has been substantiated. The timeline of the preparation of the 2013 Vilnius Summit, the position of EU structures and the attempts of the fourth President of Ukraine to win time to trade with the Russians have been reproduced. The thesis about the Donetsk clan’s attempts to prepare public opinion for a 180 degree turn in late October - early November 2013 has been presented. For this purpose, demonstration meetings were organized with representatives of Ukrainian business and trade unions, who called for revision of plans for European integration on their own initiative. The main role in manipulating public opinion rested on the government of Mykola Azarov and the Verkhovna Rada, which had a majority coalition led by the Party of Regions. Instead, Viktor Yanukovych continued his European integration rhetoric and reiterated to Western partners his own willingness to sign the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU. On November 21, the real position of the ruling elite was made available to the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine. According to it, the process of preparation for the signing of the Association Agreement was suspended, the proposal was made for the trilateral Ukraine-EU-Russia negotiations, and the ministries were tasked with developing measures to maintain economic ties with the CIS countries. The decision was rejected by European partners and led to Yanukovych’s attempts to find other ways to thwart the signing of the Agreement. It has been proved that this role was played by Yanukovych’s requirements for financial assistance from the EU amounting to about 160 billion euros, which aimed to prevent the signing of the Association Agreement. Key words: Viktor Yanukovych, association of Ukraine with the EU, эYulia Tymoshenko, European integration, Pat Cox, Alexander Kwasniewski, Vladimir Putin.

scholarly journals A Quarter-century of the Weimar Triangle: in Context of Europe’s Regions

2016 ◽  
pp. 122-131
Author(s):  
A. Martynov
Keyword(s):  
European Integration ◽  
Regional Cooperation ◽  
Eu Enlargement ◽  
Member States ◽  
Quarter Century ◽  
Association Agreement ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Interregional Cooperation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

The article considers the two vectors of the European integration process: closer integration among the EU member states and regionalization of the EU countries according to the criteria of close neighbourhood or deep cooperation. The author traces  development trends of regional cooperation of the EU member states at different stages of development of international relations i.e. the impact of the EU enlargement on regionalization process, competition and confrontation with Russia, the  complications in the field of European integration due to the negative outcome of the Dutch referendum on  ratification of the Association Agreement between the EU and Ukraine, as well as the British referendum on withdrawal from the EU. It is stressed that  the interregional cooperation  is particularly important at this critical stage  of European integration.

scholarly journals The Role of the Public Broadcaster in Informing Montenegrin Citizens about European Integration with Special Emphasis on Chapter 27

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 147-159
Author(s):  
Nataša Ružić
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
European Integration ◽  
The European Union ◽  
The Public ◽  
Special Obligation ◽  
The People ◽  
Public Broadcaster ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Impact

As a media outlet established, funded and controlled by the public, the public broadcaster has a special obligation in regard to informing the people about topics of public interest in accordance with professional reporting standards. European integration represents one of these topics. bearing in mind the fact that Montenegro started its journey towards the European Union in 2008. So far, 32 chapters have been opened, excluding Chapter 8 which is related to competition. In recent years, public opinion polls have shown a decline in the number of Montenegrin citizens who support Montenegro’s accession to the EU. This result can be explained by the impact of Brexit and the pessimistic estimates of experts that the European Union is going to fall apart in the near future. It is clear that the media – above all the public broadcaster – plays an important role in the process of informing the public on the accession process and shaping public opinion. Therefore, this work shall be dedicated to an analysis of the public broadcaster’s reporting on Chapter 27 which is related to the environment and climate change. This chapter was chosen precisely because Montenegro defi nes itself as an ecological state.

scholarly journals STRATEGIC MECHANISMS OF REGULATING THE EUROPEAN INTEGRATION DEVELOPMENT OF AIR TRANSPORT IN UKRAINE

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-59
Author(s):  
Serhii Smerichevskyi ◽  
Svitlana Gura
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Trade ◽  
European Integration ◽  
External Environment ◽  
Air Traffic ◽  
Air Transport ◽  
Civil Aviation ◽  
Association Agreement ◽  
Transport Services ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

The purpose of the paper is to substantiate the strategic mechanisms for regulating the European integration development of air transport in Ukraine. Methodology. The study is based on the imperatives of European integration development of air transport of Ukraine, defined in the Association Agreement between the European Union and the European Atomic Energy Community and their member states, on the one part, and Ukraine, on the other part. Quantitative research is based on the analysis of the volume and structure of Ukraine’s foreign trade in air transport services, calculation of the export-import coverage ratio, determination of the share of transport and air transport services in aggregate services in total foreign trade, including with the EU. Results of the paper consist in assessing the impact of the external environment on the European integration development of the Ukrainian aviation transport. The conclusion was reached on its turbulence, complexity and contradiction, while the advantageous geographical location and strategic positions of Ukraine in the region were determined as the main favorable factors. The research also singles out the following negative signs of the external environment: declining competitiveness of the Russian-Asian lanes for domestic air carriers, localization of air services in connection with hostilities in the East of Ukraine; restriction of air traffic in the context of preventive measures to combat the spread of coronavirus infection; insufficient material and technical base: lack of funding, outdated technologies, low level of innovation, environmental friendliness, safety, insufficient quality of transport services, limited social benefits; aimed at ratification of the CAA Agreement between Ukraine and the EU, as well as the draft Aviation Transport Strategy of Ukraine. The present research also identified such negative effects of COVID-19 on the development of air transport, as: a significant decrease in air passenger transport services and airlines’ revenues, a decrease in the rating of world aviation, termination and bankruptcy of a number of airlines and airports due to air traffic restrictions. It determined the place of air transport services in the system of foreign economic trade in services with the EU countries, and developed measures to increase them. Practical implications consist in the elaboration of the main strategic guidelines for the development of aviation: introduction of a simplified procedure for implementing the provisions of EU legislation into the legislation of Ukraine; ensuring environmental safety and energy saving of civil aviation facilities; innovative renewal of aircraft fleet and reduction of their harmful impact on the environment through the introduction of the latest technologies; settlement of issues relating to the establishment of airport charges for the servicing of aircraft and passengers at Ukrainian airports; development of airport infrastructure; creation of multimodal cargo complexes; approximation of SAAU and European Commission requirements to certification systems in the areas of primary airworthiness, airworthiness maintenance and maintenance of aircraft and its components; expansion of Ukraine’s voluntary participation in the program of compensation and reduction of carbon dioxide emissions from international aviation within the CORSIA program, introduction of administrative procedures for monitoring emissions by operators of civil aircraft on international flights under the MRV standards. Value/originality. The present research substantiates strategic foundations of the institutional transformations of the development of aviation transport in the context of the European integration choice of Ukraine and the transition to monovectorality, elimination of defects of dependence on the trajectory of the preceding traffic and polyvectorality. It also proposes legal, policy, investment and infrastructure integration mechanisms.

scholarly journals Brexit: signs of disintegration of the EU customs union under the conditions of globalization

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 52-62
Author(s):  
І. М. Квеліашвілі
Keyword(s):  
European Integration ◽  
Future Perspective ◽  
Final Decision ◽  
Customs Union ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Integration Policy ◽  
National Interests ◽  
Association Agreement ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

The processes of changing the world's space, turning it into a single zone, the unimpeded movement of goods, services, information, capital are aspects of the globalization of world economies. In this space, ideas that contribute to the development of relevant institutional formations and form their communicative connections are more freely distributed. Ukraine is on the way to solving the European integration tasks defined in the Association Agreement with the EU, the implementation of customs legislation, the purpose of which is not only the establishment and existence of a free trade zone, but also a more in-depth integration. The purpose of the article is to review possible scenarios concerning the conditions of movement of goods across the customs border, in the event of a final decision on the withdrawal of Great Britain from the EU Customs Unio  Today, it has already been recognized that the integration persistence of the EU Customs Union was threatened by the name Brexit. This phenomenon, as a challenge to integration in a globalized world, gives impetus to a moderate choice of concept and form of integration for the future perspective of economic development of the member countries and candidate -countries for membership in the Community. The European integration policy of Ukraine's economic policy, along with urgent issues requiring a priority solution and fulfillment of obligations, should also be considered under the criterion of probable risks and threats to national interests. The article gives moderate arguments from UK analysts regarding the UK's exit from the EU, the urgent issues regarding the varied prospects of customs relations between the European Union and the UK, as well as the EU Customs Union. Influence of possible scenarios of "soft Brexit", "hard Brexit" on foreign economic activity of the country and its activity.

scholarly journals 1989 as a Lens for the Communist Past and Post-communist Future

2009 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 289-302 ◽  
Author(s):  
JEFFREY KOPSTEIN
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Europe ◽  
European Integration ◽  
Significant Variation ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Central And Eastern Europe ◽  
The Past ◽  
Antecedent Conditions ◽  
Proximate Factors ◽  
Communist Past ◽  
The Impact

AbstractPolitical scientists have documented significant variation in political and economic outcomes of the 1989–91 revolutions. Countries bordering on western Europe have become relatively democratic and economically successful, with both democracy and wealth dropping off as one moves east and south. Explanations for this variation and the replication of an older pattern on the Eurasian landmass have moved farther and farther into the past. Yet in moving to the longue durée, more proximate events such as the revolutions of 1989, the demise of communism and even the communist experience itself recede into the background and are themselves accounted for by antecedent conditions. The article discusses how two more proximate factors helped to change older patterns in central and eastern Europe: the impact of communist modernisation and the prospect of European integration.

Influence of european integration processes on social and economic convergence of regions in Ukraine-Eu cross-border space

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (2(13)) ◽  
pp. 147-160
Author(s):  
Khrystyna Prytula ◽  
Olha Demedyuk ◽  
Yaroslava Kalat
Keyword(s):  
European Integration ◽  
Association Agreement ◽  
Border Regions ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Self Development ◽  
Social And Economic Development ◽  
European Standards ◽  
Political Association ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Having declared the course towards European integration and having signed the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement, Ukraine has made concrete commitments on improving the life of its citizens. It pledges to achieve the level of EU countries’ system of public administration, when the residents’ rights are protected, they have more chances for self-development and are more confident in future. The way to this goal goes through domestic reforms, elimination of corruption, adaptation of European standards, economic integration and political association with the EU. The impact of European integration is already visible in some spheres of country’s activity, mainly in institutional and legislative fields, foreign economic activity of both the country and its border regions and implementation of European instruments in the sphere of cross-border cooperation. However, it is going to take time to observe the influence of European integration on social and economic development of Ukraine and its regions.

scholarly journals The impact of the Article 50 talks on the EU: Risk aversion and the prospects for further EU disintegration

European View ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 186-193 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Glencross
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Risk Aversion ◽  
European Integration ◽  
Future Prospects ◽  
Domino Effect ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Article 50 ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

This article explores why there was no domino effect after Brexit and reflects on what this means for the health of European integration. It shows how the UK responded to the uncertainty surrounding the Article 50 talks by testing EU unity, prompting both sides to discuss a no-deal outcome. Evidence from Eurobarometer surveys demonstrates that attachment to the EU strengthened markedly during Brexit talks in the four countries considered most likely to flirt with leaving the EU. Hence Brexit changed the benchmarking process surrounding citizens’ evaluation of the prospects of getting a better deal outside the EU. Risk aversion thus explains the lack of a Brexit domino effect. However, the volatility of public opinion before and after the Article 50 talks, combined with the weaker increase in support over the EU as a whole, means there is no room for complacency over the future prospects of disintegration.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document