Analysis of Tree Ring Data Using the Kalman Filter Technique

IAWA Journal ◽  
1986 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 289-297 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hans Visser
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
Multiple Regression Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Tree Ring Chronology ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
Filter Technique ◽  
Tree Ring Data ◽  
Kaiman Filter ◽  
Weather Parameters ◽  
Weather Variations

A statistical mcthod is presented to filter the influence of weather variations out of a tree ring chronology. The Kaiman filter technique is introduced to estimate a multiple regression model with stochastically fluctuating weather parameters. It cnables the detection of any change in response of trees to weather. The method is in two ways an improvement upon the frequentIy used method of response functions: I) it is not necessary to assume constant model parameters, and 2) the estimation process is not based on the fitting but on the forecast performance of the model.

scholarly journals Paleo-hydrologic reconstruction of 400 years of past flows at a weekly time step for major rivers of Western Canada

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew R. Slaughter ◽  
Saman Razavi
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Flow Distribution ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Western Canada ◽  
Tree Ring Chronology ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Water Resources Systems ◽  
Tree Ring Data

Abstract. The assumption of stationarity in water resources no longer holds, particularly within the context of future climate change. Plausible scenarios of flows that fluctuate outside the envelope of variability of the gauging data are required to assess the robustness of water resources systems to future conditions. This study presents a novel method of generating weekly-time-step flows based on tree-ring chronology data. Specifically, this method addresses two long-standing challenges with paleo-reconstruction: (1) the typically limited predictive power of tree-ring data at the annual and sub-annual scale, and (2) the inflated short-term persistence in tree-ring time series and improper use of prewhitening. Unlike the conventional approach, this method establishes relationships between tree-ring chronologies and naturalised flow at a biennial scale to preserve persistence properties and variability of hydrological time series. Biennial flow reconstructions are further disaggregated to weekly, according to the weekly flow distribution of reference two-year instrumental periods, identified as periods with broadly similar tree-ring properties to that of every two-year paleo-period. The Saskatchewan River Basin (SaskRB), a major river in Western Canada, is selected as a study area, and weekly flows in its four major tributaries are extended back to the year 1600. The study shows that the reconstructed flows properly preserve the statistical properties of the reference flows, particularly, short- to long-term persistence and the structure of variability across time scales. An ensemble approach is presented to represent the uncertainty inherent in the statistical relationships and disaggregation method. The ensemble of reconstructed weekly flows are publically available for download from https://doi.org/10.20383/101.0139 (Slaughter and Razavi, 2019).

Recent growth increases in old-growth longleaf pine

1993 ◽  
Vol 23 (5) ◽  
pp. 846-853 ◽  
Author(s):  
D.C. West ◽  
T.W. Doyle ◽  
M.L. Tharp ◽  
J.J. Beauchamp ◽  
W.J. Platt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
Longleaf Pine ◽  
Biomass Accumulation ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Tree Ring Chronology ◽  
Annual Increment ◽  
Old Growth ◽  
Tree Ring Data ◽  
Old Trees

Longleaf pine (Pinuspalustris Mill.) tree-ring data were obtained from an old-growth stand located in Thomas County, Georgia. The tree-ring chronology from the pine stand is composed of a collection of cores extracted from 26 trees ranging in age from approximately 100 to 400 years. These cores were prepared, dated, and measured, and the resulting data were examined with dendrochronological and statistical techniques. Beginning in approximately 1950 and continuing to the present, annual increments of all age classes examined in this study have increased, resulting in an average annual ring increment approximately 40% greater in 1987 than in 1950. When compared with expected annual increment, the increase for 100- to 150-year-old trees is approximately 45%, while the increase for 200- to 400-year-old trees is approximately 35%. In terms of stand-level aboveground biomass accumulation, the increased growth has resulted in approximately 5% more biomass than expected. The increased growth cannot be explained by disturbance; stand history; or trends in precipitation, temperature, or Palmer drought severity index over the last 57 years. Increased atmospheric CO2 is a possible explanation for initiation of the observed trend, while SOx and NOx may be augmenting continuation of this phenomenon.

scholarly journals Juniper Tree-Ring Data from the Kuramin Range (Northern Tajikistan) Reveals Changing Summer Drought Signals in Western Central Asia

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 505 ◽  
Author(s):  
Feng Chen ◽  
Tongwen Zhang ◽  
Andrea Seim ◽  
Shulong Yu ◽  
Ruibo Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Summer Drought ◽  
Tree Ring Chronology ◽  
Tree Ring Data ◽  
June July

Coniferous forests cover the mountains in many parts of Central Asia and provide large potentials for dendroclimatic studies of past climate variability. However, to date, only a few tree-ring based climate reconstructions exist from this region. Here, we present a regional tree-ring chronology from the moisture-sensitive Zeravshan juniper (Juniperus seravschanica Kom.) from the Kuramin Range (Tajikistan) in western Central Asia, which is used to reveal past summer drought variability from 1650 to 2015 Common Era (CE). The chronology accounts for 40.5% of the variance of the June–July self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) during the instrumental period (1901 to 2012). Seven dry periods, including 1659–1696, 1705–1722, 1731–1741, 1758–1790, 1800–1842, 1860–1875, and 1931–1987, and five wet periods, including 1742–1752, 1843–1859, 1876–1913, 1921–1930, and 1988–2015, were identified. Good agreements between drought records from western and eastern Central Asia suggest that the PDSI records retain common drought signals and capture the regional dry/wet periods of Central Asia. Moreover, the spectral analysis indicates the existence of centennial (128 years), decadal (24.3 and 11.4 years), and interannual (8.0, 3.6, 2.9, and 2.0 years) cycles, which may be linked with climate forces, such as solar activity and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The analysis between the scPDSI reconstruction and large-scale atmospheric circulations during the reconstructed extreme dry and wet years can provide information about the linkages of extremes in our scPDSI record with the large-scale ocean–atmosphere–land circulation systems.

scholarly journals Timberline tree-ring statistics examined through chronology stripping

2012 ◽  
Vol 56 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-15
Author(s):  
Mauri Timonen ◽  
Kari Mielikäinen ◽  
Samuli Helama
Keyword(s):  
Sample Size ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Sample Selection ◽  
Ring Width ◽  
Tree Ring Chronology ◽  
Individual Tree ◽  
Tree Ring Data ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Climate Parameter ◽  
Cross Dating

Abstract Tree-ring data is commonly used in forest science and dendrochronology. As the collected datasets represent restricted populations of theoretical infinite sample size, an interesting question deals with the sample selection that is carried out during the fieldwork and through the data analyses. This paper considers the latter issue, by statistically examining a recently completed Scots pine dataset of timberline tree-rings from Lapland (northern Finland). Following the detrending of individual ring-width series, the composition of the data was restricted using a pre-determined criteria of linear correlativity between the individual sample series and the master chronology (Rmaster). This procedure reduced both the number of sites and the sample size (i.e. the number of individual tree-ring series) and altered the tree-ring statistics of the remaining subset of the data in a systematic fashion. It was seen that the first-order autocorrelation, mean sensitivity and standard deviation all ascended with the uplifted Rmaster criterion. Conspicuously, such filtering also reduced the correlation between the resulting tree-ring chronology and climate parameter. The results indicated that the screening of the data will alter the chronology statistics in a way that may be artificially generated, irrelative to the predetermined sample selection criteria. We remain to assume that the most fundamental selection of data is attained through the cross-dating process.

scholarly journals Juniper tree-ring data from the Kuramenian Mountains (Republic of Tajikistan), reveals changing summer drought signals in western Central Asia

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Feng Chen ◽  
Tongwen Zhang ◽  
Andrea Seim ◽  
Shulong Yu ◽  
Ruibo Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Summer Drought ◽  
Tree Ring Chronology ◽  
Tree Ring Data ◽  
June July

Abstract. Coniferous forests cover the mountains in many parts of central Asia and provide large potentials for dendroclimatic studies of past climate variability. However, to date, only a few tree-ring based climate reconstructions exist from this region. Here we present a regional tree-ring chronology from moisture-sensitive Juniperus seravschanica from the Kuramenian Mountains (Republic of Tajikistan), which is used to reveal past summer drought variability in western Central Asia. The chronology accounts for 40.5 % of the variance of the June–July self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) during the instrumental period (1901 to 2012). Seven dry periods including 1659–1696, 1705–1722, 1731–1741, 1758–1790, 1800–1842, 1860–1875 and 1931–1987, and five wet periods of 1742–1752, 1843–1859, 1876–1913, 1921–1930 and 1988–2015 were identified. Good agreements between drought records from western and eastern Central Asia suggest that the PDSI records retain common drought signals and captures the regional dry/wet periods of Central Asia. Moreover, the wavelet analysis indicates the existence of centennial (100–150 years), decadal (50–60, 24.4 and 11.4 years) and interannual (8.0 and 2.0-3.5 years) cycles, which may linked with climate forcings, such as solar activity and ENSO. The analysis between the scPDSI reconstruction and large-scale atmospheric circulations during the reconstructed extreme dry and wet years can provide information about the linkages of extremes in our scPDSI record with the Asian summer monsoon activity.

scholarly journals Securing timelines in the ancient Mediterranean using multiproxy annual tree-ring data

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (15) ◽  
pp. 8410-8415 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charlotte Pearson ◽  
Matthew Salzer ◽  
Lukas Wacker ◽  
Peter Brewer ◽  
Adam Sookdeo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
Iron Age ◽  
Paleoenvironmental Reconstruction ◽  
Growth Responses ◽  
Tree Ring Chronology ◽  
Potential Marker ◽  
Environmental Interactions ◽  
Tree Ring Data ◽  
Bristlecone Pine ◽  
New Applications

Calendar-dated tree-ring sequences offer an unparalleled resource for high-resolution paleoenvironmental reconstruction. Where such records exist for a few limited geographic regions over the last 8,000 to 12,000 years, they have proved invaluable for creating precise and accurate timelines for past human and environmental interactions. To expand such records across new geographic territory or extend data for certain regions further backward in time, new applications must be developed to secure “floating” (not yet absolutely dated) tree-ring sequences, which cannot be assigned single-calendar year dates by standard dendrochronological techniques. This study develops two approaches to this problem for a critical floating tree-ring chronology from the East Mediterranean Bronze–Iron Age. The chronology is more closely fixed in time using annually resolved patterns of 14C, modulated by cosmic radiation, between 1700 and 1480 BC. This placement is then tested using an anticorrelation between calendar-dated tree-ring growth responses to climatically effective volcanism in North American bristlecone pine and the Mediterranean trees. Examination of the newly dated Mediterranean tree-ring sequence between 1630 and 1500 BC using X-ray fluorescence revealed an unusual calcium anomaly around 1560 BC. While requiring further replication and analysis, this anomaly merits exploration as a potential marker for the eruption of Thera.

scholarly journals Paleo-hydrologic reconstruction of 400 years of past flows at a weekly time step for major rivers of Western Canada

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 231-243
Author(s):  
Andrew R. Slaughter ◽  
Saman Razavi
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Flow Distribution ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Western Canada ◽  
Tree Ring Chronology ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Persistence Properties ◽  
Tree Ring Data ◽  
Improper Use

Abstract. The assumption of stationarity in water resources no longer holds, particularly within the context of future climate change. Plausible scenarios of flows that fluctuate outside the envelope of variability of the gauging data are required to assess the robustness of water resource systems to future conditions. This study presents a novel method of generating weekly time step flows based on tree-ring chronology data. Specifically, this method addresses two long-standing challenges with paleo-reconstruction: (i) the typically limited predictive power of tree-ring data at the annual and sub-annual scale and (ii) the inflated short-term persistence in tree-ring time series and improper use of pre-whitening. Unlike the conventional approach, this method establishes relationships between tree-ring chronologies and naturalized flow at a biennial scale to preserve persistence properties and variability of hydrological time series. Biennial flow reconstructions are further disaggregated to weekly flow reconstructions, according to the weekly flow distribution of reference 2-year instrumental periods, identified as periods with broadly similar tree-ring properties to those of every 2-year paleo-period. The Saskatchewan River basin (SaskRB) in Western Canada is selected as a study area, and weekly flows in its four major tributaries are extended back to the year 1600. The study shows that the reconstructed flows properly preserve the statistical properties of the reference flows, particularly in terms of short- to long-term persistence and the structure of variability across timescales. An ensemble approach is presented to represent the uncertainty inherent in the statistical relationships and disaggregation method. The ensemble of reconstructed weekly flows are publicly available for download from https://doi.org/10.20383/101.0139 (Slaughter and Razavi, 2019).

scholarly journals Supporting Restoration Decisions through Integration of Tree-Ring and Modeling Data: Reconstructing Flow and Salinity in the San Francisco Estuary over the Past Millennium

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 2139
Author(s):  
Paul H. Hutton ◽  
David M. Meko ◽  
Sujoy B. Roy
Keyword(s):  
San Francisco ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
San Francisco Estuary ◽  
Salinity Intrusion ◽  
Estuarine Ecosystem ◽  
Freshwater Flow ◽  
The Past ◽  
Decadal Scale ◽  
Tree Ring Data ◽  
Past Millennium

This work presents updated reconstructions of watershed runoff to San Francisco Estuary from tree-ring data to AD 903, coupled with models relating runoff to freshwater flow to the estuary and salinity intrusion. We characterize pre-development freshwater flow and salinity conditions in the estuary over the past millennium and compare this characterization with contemporary conditions to better understand the magnitude and seasonality of changes over this time. This work shows that the instrumented flow record spans the range of runoff patterns over the past millennium (averaged over 5, 10, 20 and 100 years), and thus serves as a reasonable basis for planning-level evaluations of historical hydrologic conditions in the estuary. Over annual timescales we show that, although median freshwater flow to the estuary has not changed significantly, it has been more variable over the past century compared to pre-development flow conditions. We further show that the contemporary period is generally associated with greater spring salinity intrusion and lesser summer–fall salinity intrusion relative to the pre-development period. Thus, salinity intrusion in summer and fall months was a common occurrence under pre-development conditions and has been moderated in the contemporary period due to the operations of upstream reservoirs, which were designed to hold winter and spring runoff for release in summer and fall. This work also confirms a dramatic decadal-scale hydrologic shift in the watershed from very wet to very dry conditions during the late 19th and early 20th centuries; while not unprecedented, these shifts have been seen only a few times in the past millennium. This shift resulted in an increase in salinity intrusion in the first three decades of the 20th century, as documented through early records. Population growth and extensive watershed modification during this period exacerbated this underlying hydrologic shift. Putting this shift in the context of other anthropogenic drivers is important in understanding the historical response of the estuary and in setting salinity targets for estuarine restoration. By characterizing the long-term behavior of San Francisco Estuary, this work supports decision-making in the State of California related to flow and salinity management for restoration of the estuarine ecosystem.

scholarly journals Cariaco Basin Calibration Update: Revisions to Calendar and 14C Chronologies for Core Pl07-58Pc

Radiocarbon ◽  
2004 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 1161-1187 ◽  
Author(s):  
Konrad A Hughen ◽  
John R Southon ◽  
Chanda J H Bertrand ◽  
Brian Frantz ◽  
Paula Zermeño
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
Cariaco Basin ◽  
Calibration Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Varve Chronology ◽  
Pine Tree ◽  
Tree Ring Data ◽  
Calibration Data Set ◽  
Recent Version ◽  
Radiocarbon Calibration

This paper describes the methods used to develop the Cariaco Basin PL07-58PC marine radiocarbon calibration data set. Background measurements are provided for the period when Cariaco samples were run, as well as revisions leading to the most recent version of the floating varve chronology. The floating Cariaco chronology has been anchored to an updated and expanded Preboreal pine tree-ring data set, with better estimates of uncertainty in the wiggle-match. Pending any further changes to the dendrochronology, these results represent the final Cariaco 58PC calibration data set.

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