scholarly journals A Numerical Study of Early Summer Regional Climate and Weather over LSA-East. Part I: Model Implementation and Verification

2003 ◽  
Vol 131 (8) ◽  
pp. 1895-1909 ◽  
Author(s):  
Da-Lin Zhang ◽  
Wei-Zhong Zheng ◽  
Yong-Kang Xue
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Numerical Study ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Surface Boundary ◽  
Diurnal Changes ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Weather Events

Abstract The Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) and a simplified simple biosphere (SSiB) scheme are modified and then coupled to study various regional climate and weather problems. These modifications include correcting the moisture and cloud hydrometeor fields to ensure the mass conservation; incorporating the effects of dissipative heating to ensure total energy conservation; decoupling soil and vegetation types in specifying various surface parameters; and eliminating the shortwave radiation reaching the surface at points where deep convection occurs. A 30-day integration of June 1998 over the Midwest states was used to examine the model's capability in capturing the observed wet regional climate and the passage of several mesoscale weather events. It is found that the coupled model reproduces the distribution and magnitude of monthly accumulated precipitation, the time series of area-integrated precipitation, surface pressures, and diurnal changes in surface temperatures, low-level winds and precipitation, as well as the evolution of precipitation systems across the central United States. In particular, the model reproduces well many daily weather events, including the distribution and intensity of low-level temperature and pressure perturbations and precipitation, even up to a month. The results suggest that the daily temperature, clouds, and precipitation events from the weekly to monthly scales, as well as their associated regional climate phenomena, could be reasonably simulated if the surface, boundary layer, radiation, and convective processes are realistically parameterized, and the large-scale forcing could be reasonably provided by general circulation models.

Permafrost, tectonics, and past and future regional climate change, Yukon and adjacent Northwest Territories

1994 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 182-191 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. R. Burn
Keyword(s):  
Northwest Territories ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Gulf Of Alaska ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Yukon Territory ◽  
Early Pleistocene ◽  
Tectonic Activity ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Late Tertiary

Late Tertiary changes in the general circulation of the atmosphere, regionally enhanced by uplift of the Wrangell – Saint: Elias and Coast mountains, were sufficient to promote permafrost development in the western Arctic. Permafrost developed in Yukon Territory and adjacent Northwest Territories during early Pleistocene glacial periods, after continued tectonic activity led to further modification of regional climate, but degraded in the interglacials. Permafrost has been present in northern parts of the region since the Illinoian glaciation, but most ground ice in central Yukon formed in the Late Wisconsinan. The present interglacial is the only one with widespread evidence of permafrost, which is maintained in the valleys of central and southern Yukon by the Saint Elias Mountains blocking continental penetration of maritime air from the Gulf of Alaska. This reduces snow depth in winter, while cold-air drainage in the dissected terrain of the Yukon Plateaus enhances the near-surface inversion, leading to continental minimum temperatures. General circulation models used to simulate climate represent the physiography of northwest Canada crudely. As a result, the simulations are unable to reproduce conditions responsible for the development and preservation of permafrost in the region.

Event detection and visualization of ocean eddies simulated by ocean general circulation model

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (03) ◽  
pp. 1950018
Author(s):  
Daisuke Matsuoka ◽  
Fumiaki Araki ◽  
Hideharu Sasaki
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Numerical Study ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Ocean Currents ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Ocean Eddies ◽  
Ocean General Circulation

Numerical study of ocean eddies has been carried out by using high-resolution ocean general circulation models. In order to understand ocean eddies from the large volume data produced by simulations, visualizing only eddy distribution at each time step is insufficient; time-variations in eddy events and phenomena must also be considered. However, existing methods cannot precisely find and track eddy events such as amalgamation and bifurcation. In this study, we propose an original approach for eddy detection, tracking, and event visualization based on an eddy classification system. The proposed method detects streams and currents as well as eddies, and it classifies discovered eddies into several categories using the additional stream and current information. By tracking how the classified eddies vary over time, detecting events such as eddy amalgamation and bifurcation as well as the interaction between eddies and ocean currents becomes achievable. We adopt the proposed method for two ocean areas in which strong ocean currents exist as case studies. We visualize the detected eddies and events in a time series of images, allowing us to acquire an intuitive understanding of a region of interest concealed in a high-resolution data set. Furthermore, our proposed method succeeded in clarifying the occurrence place and seasonality of each type of eddy event.

scholarly journals Extreme Precipitation Spatial Analog: In Search of an Alternative Approach for Future Extreme Precipitation in Urban Hydrological Studies

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 1032 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ariel Wang ◽  
Francina Dominguez ◽  
Arthur Schmidt
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Precipitation Frequency ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Climate Change Assessment

In this paper, extreme precipitation spatial analog is examined as an alternative method to adapt extreme precipitation projections for use in urban hydrological studies. The idea for this method is that real climate records from some cities can serve as “analogs” that behave like potential future precipitation for other locations at small spatio-temporal scales. Extreme precipitation frequency quantiles of a 3.16 km 2 catchment in the Chicago area, computed using simulations from North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) Regional Climate Models (RCMs) with L-moment method, were compared to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlas 14 (NA14) quantiles at other cities. Variances in raw NARCCAP historical quantiles from different combinations of RCMs, General Circulation Models (GCMs), and remapping methods are much larger than those in NA14. The performance for NARCCAP quantiles tend to depend more on the RCMs than the GCMs, especially at durations less than 24-h. The uncertainties in bias-corrected future quantiles of NARCCAP are still large compared to those of NA14, and increase with rainfall duration. Results show that future 3-h and 30-day rainfall in Chicago will be similar to historical rainfall from Memphis, TN and Springfield, IL, respectively. This indicates that the spatial analog is potentially useful, but highlights the fact that the analogs may depend on the duration of the rainfall of interest.

A Numerical Study of the Impact of Vertical Shear on the Distribution of Rainfall in Hurricane Bonnie (1998)

2003 ◽  
Vol 131 (8) ◽  
pp. 1577-1599 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Rogers ◽  
Shuyi Chen ◽  
Joseph Tenerelli ◽  
Hugh Willoughby
Keyword(s):  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Numerical Study ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Vertical Motion ◽  
Environmental Flow ◽  
Vertical Shear ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Hurricane Bonnie ◽  
Along Track ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Despite the significant impacts of torrential rainfall from tropical cyclones at landfall, quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) remains an unsolved problem. A key task in improving tropical cyclone QPF is understanding the factors that affect the intensity and distribution of rainfall around the storm. These include the storm motion, topography, and orientation of the coast, and interactions with the environmental flow. The combination of these effects can produce rainfall distributions that may be nearly axisymmetric or highly asymmetric and rainfall amounts that range from 1 or 2 cm to >30 cm. This study investigates the interactions between a storm and its environmental flow through a numerical simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998) that focuses on the role of vertical wind shear in governing azimuthal variations of rainfall. The simulation uses the high-resolution nonhydrostatic fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) to simulate the storm between 0000 UTC 22 August and 0000 UTC 27 August 1998. During this period significant changes in the vertical shear occurred in the simulation. It changed from strong west-southwesterly, and across track, to much weaker south-southwesterly, and along track. Nearly concurrently, the azimuthal distribution of convection changed from a distinct wavenumber-1 pattern to almost azimuthally symmetric by the end of the time period. The strongest convection in the core was generally located on the downshear left side of the shear vector when the shear was strong. The azimuthal distributions and magnitudes of low-level radial inflow, reflectivity, boundary layer divergence, and low-level vertical motion all varied consistently with the evolution of the vertical shear. Additionally, the vortex showed a generally downshear tilt from the vertical. The magnitude of the tilt correlated well with changes in magnitude of the environmental shear. The accumulated rainfall was distributed symmetrically across the track of the storm when the shear was strong and across track, and it was distributed asymmetrically across the track of the storm when the shear was weak and along track.

scholarly journals The Caribbean Low-Level Jet and Its Relationship with Precipitation in IPCC AR4 Models

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (22) ◽  
pp. 5935-5950 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elinor R. Martin ◽  
Courtney Schumacher
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Low Level ◽  
The North ◽  
Moisture Fluxes ◽  
Low Level Jet ◽  
The Caribbean

Abstract A census of 19 coupled and 12 uncoupled model runs from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) shows that all models have the ability to simulate the location and height of the Caribbean low-level jet (CLLJ); however, the observed semiannual cycle of the CLLJ magnitude was a challenge for the models to reproduce. In particular, model means failed to capture the strong July CLLJ peak as a result of the lack of westward and southward expansion of the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) between May and July. The NASH was also found to be too strong, particularly during the first 6 months of the year in the coupled model runs, which led to increased meridional sea level pressure gradients across the southern Caribbean and, hence, an overly strong CLLJ. The ability of the models to simulate the correlation between the CLLJ and regional precipitation varied based on season and region. During summer months, the negative correlation between the CLLJ and Caribbean precipitation anomalies was reproduced in the majority of models, with uncoupled models outperforming coupled models. The positive correlation between the CLLJ and the central U.S. precipitation during February was more challenging for the models, with the uncoupled models failing to reproduce a significant relationship. This may be a result of overactive convective parameterizations raining out too much moisture in the Caribbean meaning less is available for transport northward, or due to incorrect moisture fluxes over the Gulf of Mexico. The representation of the CLLJ in general circulation models has important consequences for accurate predictions and projections of future climate in the Caribbean and surrounding regions.

scholarly journals New approaches to quantifying aerosol influence on the cloud radiative effect

2016 ◽  
Vol 113 (21) ◽  
pp. 5812-5819 ◽  
Author(s):  
Graham Feingold ◽  
Allison McComiskey ◽  
Takanobu Yamaguchi ◽  
Jill S. Johnson ◽  
Kenneth S. Carslaw ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Emergent Properties ◽  
Radiative Effect ◽  
Aerosol Composition ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Cloud Radiative Effect ◽  
Aerosol Cloud Interactions

The topic of cloud radiative forcing associated with the atmospheric aerosol has been the focus of intense scrutiny for decades. The enormity of the problem is reflected in the need to understand aspects such as aerosol composition, optical properties, cloud condensation, and ice nucleation potential, along with the global distribution of these properties, controlled by emissions, transport, transformation, and sinks. Equally daunting is that clouds themselves are complex, turbulent, microphysical entities and, by their very nature, ephemeral and hard to predict. Atmospheric general circulation models represent aerosol−cloud interactions at ever-increasing levels of detail, but these models lack the resolution to represent clouds and aerosol−cloud interactions adequately. There is a dearth of observational constraints on aerosol−cloud interactions. We develop a conceptual approach to systematically constrain the aerosol−cloud radiative effect in shallow clouds through a combination of routine process modeling and satellite and surface-based shortwave radiation measurements. We heed the call to merge Darwinian and Newtonian strategies by balancing microphysical detail with scaling and emergent properties of the aerosol−cloud radiation system.

scholarly journals Unravelling the contribution of potential evaporation formulation to uncertainty under climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thibault Lemaitre-Basset ◽  
Ludovic Oudin ◽  
Guillaume Thirel ◽  
Lila Collet
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Environmental Drivers ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Potential Evaporation ◽  
Evaporative Demand ◽  
Impact Studies

Abstract. The increasing air temperature in a changing climate will impact actual evaporation and have consequences for water resources management in energy-limited regions. In many hydrological models, evaporation is assessed by a preliminary computation of potential evaporation (PE) representing the evaporative demand of the atmosphere. Therefore, in impact studies the quantification of uncertainties related to PE estimation, which can arise from different sources, is crucial. Indeed, a myriad of PE formulations exist and the uncertainties related to climate variables cascade into PE computation. So far, no consensus has emerged on the main source of uncertainty in the PE modelling chain for hydrological studies. In this study, we address this issue by setting up a multi-model and multi-scenario approach. We used seven different PE formulations and a set of 30 climate projections to calculate changes in PE. To estimate the uncertainties related to each step of the PE calculation process (namely Representative Concentration Pathways, General Circulation Models, Regional Climate Models and PE formulations), an analysis of variance decomposition (ANOVA) was used. Results show that PE would increase across France by the end of the century, from +40 to +130 mm/year. In ascending order, uncertainty contributions by the end of the century are explained by: PE formulations (below 10 %), then RCPs (above 20 %), RCMs (30–40 %) and GCMs (30–40 %). Finally, all PE formulations show similar future trends since climatic variables are co-dependent to temperature. While no PE formulation stands out from the others, in hydrological impact studies the Penman-Monteith formulation may be preferred as it is representative of the PE formulations ensemble mean and allows accounting for climate and environmental drivers co-evolution.

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