Performance of the 1976 University of Wisconsin Model for United States Long-Range Forecasts Made for 1976–80

1982 ◽  
Vol 63 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert P. Harnack ◽  
William R. Sammler
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Long Range ◽  
Considerable Variability ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
University Of Wisconsin ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The University ◽  
Positive Results ◽  
Range Forecasts

The 1976 version of the University of Wisconsin model's ultra long-range forecasts of monthly mean temperature and precipitation were verified for selected United States stations over the period 1976–80. In an overall sense, neither the pentad category forecasts for four months, nor the individual year forecasts for two months, showed significant skill relative to random chance expectation. Slight positive skill was found for the July precipitation forecasts. Considerable variability of skill scores were seen from one month type to another, and from year to year. The lack of demonstrated significant skill overall for the 1976–80 period contrasts with the positive results reported by the modelers for independent sample forecasts made for the period 1961–75.

Corrections and Additions to Verification Study of Performance of 1976 University of Wisconsin Model2

1983 ◽  
Vol 64 (6) ◽  
pp. 611-613
Author(s):  
Robert P. Harnack ◽  
William R. Sammler
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Long Range ◽  
Skill Score ◽  
Temperature Forecast ◽  
University Of Wisconsin ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
Complete Set ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Forecast Skill Score ◽  
The University

Revised and complete verification statistics for mainland United States long-range forecasts made for the period 1976–80 by the 1976 version of the University of Wisconsin model are presented. Corrections to earlier published values are given, as well as skill scores obtained using a much more complete set of stations for which forecasts were made. The overall skill score for the pentad temperature forecasts made for January, April, July, and October is negative (−0.14), while those for pentad precipitation and individual year July precipitation forecasts are positive (0.12 and 0.04, respectively). The individual year January temperature forecast skill score was unchanged at −0.08 overall.

‘A Routh O’ Auld Nick-Nackets’ – the antiquarian collection of John Rae

2015 ◽  
Vol 36-37 (1) ◽  
pp. 163-183
Author(s):  
Paul Taylor
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Nineteenth Century ◽  
Social Context ◽  
Moral Education ◽  
The United States ◽  
Representative Case ◽  
National Museums ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The University

John Rae, a Scottish antiquarian collector and spirit merchant, played a highly prominent role in the local natural history societies and exhibitions of nineteenth-century Aberdeen. While he modestly described his collection of archaeological lithics and other artefacts, principally drawn from Aberdeenshire but including some items from as far afield as the United States, as a mere ‘routh o’ auld nick-nackets' (abundance of old knick-knacks), a contemporary singled it out as ‘the best known in private hands' (Daily Free Press 4/5/91). After Rae's death, Glasgow Museums, National Museums Scotland, the University of Aberdeen Museum and the Pitt Rivers Museum in Oxford, as well as numerous individual private collectors, purchased items from the collection. Making use of historical and archive materials to explore the individual biography of Rae and his collection, this article examines how Rae's collecting and other antiquarian activities represent and mirror wider developments in both the ‘amateur’ antiquarianism carried out by Rae and his fellow collectors for reasons of self-improvement and moral education, and the ‘professional’ antiquarianism of the museums which purchased his artefacts. Considered in its wider nineteenth-century context, this is a representative case study of the early development of archaeology in the wider intellectual, scientific and social context of the era.

scholarly journals Benchmarking homogenization algorithms for monthly data

2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-115 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. K. C. Venema ◽  
O. Mestre ◽  
E. Aguilar ◽  
I. Auer ◽  
J. A. Guijarro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Global Network ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
Simulated Network ◽  
The Individual

Abstract. The COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology) Action ES0601: advances in homogenization methods of climate series: an integrated approach (HOME) has executed a blind intercomparison and validation study for monthly homogenization algorithms. Time series of monthly temperature and precipitation were evaluated because of their importance for climate studies and because they represent two important types of statistics (additive and multiplicative). The algorithms were validated against a realistic benchmark dataset. The benchmark contains real inhomogeneous data as well as simulated data with inserted inhomogeneities. Random independent break-type inhomogeneities with normally distributed breakpoint sizes were added to the simulated datasets. To approximate real world conditions, breaks were introduced that occur simultaneously in multiple station series within a simulated network of station data. The simulated time series also contained outliers, missing data periods and local station trends. Further, a stochastic nonlinear global (network-wide) trend was added. Participants provided 25 separate homogenized contributions as part of the blind study. After the deadline at which details of the imposed inhomogeneities were revealed, 22 additional solutions were submitted. These homogenized datasets were assessed by a number of performance metrics including (i) the centered root mean square error relative to the true homogeneous value at various averaging scales, (ii) the error in linear trend estimates and (iii) traditional contingency skill scores. The metrics were computed both using the individual station series as well as the network average regional series. The performance of the contributions depends significantly on the error metric considered. Contingency scores by themselves are not very informative. Although relative homogenization algorithms typically improve the homogeneity of temperature data, only the best ones improve precipitation data. Training the users on homogenization software was found to be very important. Moreover, state-of-the-art relative homogenization algorithms developed to work with an inhomogeneous reference are shown to perform best. The study showed that automatic algorithms can perform as well as manual ones.

PRESIDENT'S ADDRESS

PEDIATRICS ◽  
1953 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
WARREN W. QUILLIAN
Keyword(s):  
Social Progress ◽  
Basic Principles ◽  
University Of Wisconsin ◽  
School Of Medicine ◽  
The People ◽  
Differences Of Opinion ◽  
High Standards ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The University ◽  
New Generation

Economic and social progress in our practice depends upon the sustained interest and the effort of the individual physician. Courage and faith are necessary foundations for action in this critical year of decision, and there is every reason to believe that the new generation of pediatricians has every qualification necessary to continue the quest for better health among children. His adventure in "practical idealism" will not be an easy one. But, fortified by the assurance of his noble heritage of accomplishment and adherence to high standards, he will accept the challenge of the future with a deep sense of responsibility. He will keep faith with those who have gone before, and attempt to retain the confidence and trust of the people as did our fathers, by holding high the banner of service. The price of success in this undertaking involves a determination to reach our objectives regardless of adverse circumstances, concentration on the immediate problems, and by long range plans for fulfilling our obligations to the children of America. Frustration and differences of opinion are inevitable. Changing conditions require flexibility in our adaptation to existing needs. Let us keep our eyes upon the stars, but our feet upon the ground! Our responsibilities are great. The Dean of the School of Medicine at the University of Wisconsin, Dr. William S. Middleton, recently stated the challenge in these words: "Make no small plans; they have no magic to stir man's soul!" Medicine progresses, even in a troubled world. Changes in governments, in laws and controls, have not interfered with this progress. Civilizations of the past have been destroyed by the decay and infamy and greed within their own structure. Let us renew our faith in the simple basic principles, which have characterized the growth and development of the Academy for 22 years.

The Emotional Style of the Modern Parent in the Conditions of the COVID-19 Pandemic

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 32-39
Author(s):  
Veneta Uzunova
Keyword(s):  
Emotional Intelligence ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
University Of Wisconsin ◽  
Parents And Children ◽  
The Family ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Emotional Style ◽  
The University ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Basic Prerequisite

In a pandemic, the child-parent relationship is facing new challenges. Social isolation affects people differently, but a sustainable internal psychological resource allows the individual to get out of the critical period with as little damage as possible. Healthy emotionality is a basic prerequisite for the formation and development of emotional intelligence. The identification of the emotion, the control over the impulse and its expression in a socially acceptable way by the parent - all this is inextricably linked with the process of upbringing in the family and marks the nature of the relationship between parents and children. The study focuses on the study of the emotional style of the modern parent in the context of his interaction with the children in the family. The emotional style questionnaire used by a team from the University of Wisconsin-Madison was used. The survey was conducted among parents of children and students from 3 to 18 years. Conclusions were made regarding the specifics of the emotional style of the parents in the context of the established state of emergency and in connection with pedagogical activities aimed at creating conditions for increasing the emotional intelligence of the respondents with the support of the school.

Weaving Innovative Threads Together

2018 ◽  
pp. 22-35
Author(s):  
Judee Richardson
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Skill Levels ◽  
Competency Based Education ◽  
University Of Wisconsin ◽  
Societal Needs ◽  
Specific Performance ◽  
Competency Based ◽  
The University

In the United States, institutions of higher education have been under mounting pressure to improve. In part, this is due to increasingly high-priced academies producing graduates who possess skill levels that are out of sync with employer and societal needs. Added to this is the fact that the United States spends more than other countries to educate its citizens but continues to perform more poorly on comparative measures of literacy, math, reading, and science. To stay globally competitive, changes need to be made. Competency-based education has re-emerged and taken root as one way in which to educate students more effectively. By focusing on demonstrable learning outcomes and discipline-specific performance, competency-based education is changing the fabric of higher education. Based upon experiences garnered from the University of Wisconsin Flexible Option, this chapter presents some of the challenges encountered when developing this type of program within a longstanding traditional educational system.

Progress in Monthly Climate Forecasting with a Physical Model

1981 ◽  
Vol 62 (12) ◽  
pp. 1666-1675 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julian Adem ◽  
William L. Donn
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Physical Model ◽  
Long Range ◽  
Surface Albedo ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Climate Forecasting ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Ice Conditions

A long-range forecasting technique, based on a physical model that emphasizes thermodynamics, is applied to the prediction of anomalies of temperature and precipitation for the Northern Hemisphere. Monthly forecasts are initialized with the sea surface temperature, 700 mb temperature and surface albedo, including variable snow-ice conditions. Application to the hot spell and drought in the summer of 1980 for the contiguous United States shows very encouraging skill when verified for the standard 100-station NOAA grid.

scholarly journals Patient-Computer Dialogue: A Review,

2000 ◽  
Vol 09 (01) ◽  
pp. 71-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
W.V. Slack
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
University Of Wisconsin ◽  
The Future ◽  
History Of ◽  
The University

AbstractSince the first study of communication between patient and computer was performed at the University of Wisconsin in 1965, programs for patient-computer dialogue have been developed, implemented, and studied in numerous settings in the United States and abroad, and the results have been encouraging. This review presents a brief history of patient-computer dialogue together with suggested guidelines for programs in the future.

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