scholarly journals The Integral Role of a Diabatic Rossby Vortex in a Heavy Snowfall Event

2008 ◽  
Vol 136 (6) ◽  
pp. 1878-1897 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard W. Moore ◽  
Michael T. Montgomery ◽  
Huw C. Davies
Keyword(s):  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Short Wave ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Wave Trough ◽  
Surface Cyclone ◽  
Integral Role ◽  
Surface Disturbance ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Inversion Techniques

Abstract On 24–25 February 2005, a significant East Coast cyclone deposited from 4 to nearly 12 in. (∼10–30 cm) of snow on parts of the northeastern United States. The heaviest snowfall and most rapid deepening of the cyclone coincided with the favorable positioning of an upper-level, short-wave trough immediately upstream of a preexisting surface cyclone. The surface cyclone in question formed approximately 15 h before the heaviest snowfall along a coastal front in a region of frontogenesis and heavy precipitation. The incipient surface cyclone subsequently intensified as it moved to the northeast, consistently generating the strongest convection to the east-northeast of the low-level circulation center. The use of potential vorticity (PV) inversion techniques and a suite of mesoscale model simulations illustrates that the early intensification of the incipient surface cyclone was primarily driven by diabatic effects and was not critically dependent on the upper-level wave. These facts, taken in conjunction with the observed structure, energetics, and Lagrangian evolution of the incipient surface disturbance, identify it as a diabatic Rossby vortex (DRV). The antecedent surface vorticity spinup associated with the DRV phase of development is found to be integral to the subsequent rapid growth. The qualitative similarity with a number of observed cases of explosive cyclogenesis leaves open the possibility that a DRV-like feature comprises the preexisting positive low-level PV anomaly in a number of cyclogenetic events that exhibit a two-stage evolution.

Ensemble-Based Analysis of the May 2010 Extreme Rainfall in Tennessee and Kentucky

2014 ◽  
Vol 142 (1) ◽  
pp. 222-239 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samantha L. Lynch ◽  
Russ S. Schumacher
Keyword(s):  
Mississippi River ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Event ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Surface Cyclone ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Surrounding Areas

Abstract From 1 to 3 May 2010, persistent heavy rainfall occurred in the Ohio and Mississippi River valleys due to two successive quasi-stationary mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), with locations in central Tennessee accumulating more than 483 mm of rain, and the city of Nashville experiencing a historic flash flood. This study uses operational global ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to diagnose atmospheric processes and assess forecast uncertainty in this event. Several ensemble analysis methods are used to examine the processes that led to the development and maintenance of this precipitation system. Differences between ensemble members that correctly predicted heavy precipitation and those that did not were determined, in order to pinpoint the processes that were favorable or detrimental to the system's development. Statistical analysis was used to determine how synoptic-scale flows were correlated to 5-day area-averaged precipitation. The precipitation throughout Nashville and the surrounding areas occurred ahead of an upper-level trough located over the central United States. The distribution of precipitation was found to be closely related to the strength of this trough and an associated surface cyclone. In particular, when the upper-level trough was elongated, the surface cyclone remained weaker with a narrower low-level jet from the south. This caused the plume of moisture from the Caribbean Sea to be concentrated over Tennessee and Kentucky, where, in conjunction with focused ascent, heavy rain fell. Relatively small differences in the wind and pressure fields led to important differences in the precipitation forecasts and highlighted some of the uncertainties associated with predicting this extreme rainfall event.

Numerical Simulation of the Effects of Warm Temperature Perturbation on Mesoscale Vortex and Rainfall in Col Field

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yongqiang Jiang ◽  
Chaohui Chen ◽  
Hongrang He ◽  
Yudi Liu ◽  
Hong Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Temperature Perturbation ◽  
Strong Wind ◽  
Mesoscale Vortex ◽  
Pressure Drops ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Low Level Jet ◽  
Upper Level

<p>The col field (a region between two lows and two highs in the isobaric surface) is a common pattern leading to the generation of mesoscale vortex and heavy rainfall in China. The mesoscale vortex usually forms near the col point and the dilatation axis of the col field in the low-level troposphere.</p><p>The Mesoscale model WRF was used to numerically simulate a rainfall process in col field. A temperature perturbation column (TPC) was introduced into the low-level col field near the col point, and the effects of TPC on mesoscale vortex and rainfall was analyzed.</p><p>It was shown that in the region of strong wind background, the TPC moves downstream and has little effect on the environment, while near the col point, the wind speed and the vertical wind shear are small, the TPC can stay in the col field for a long time, which can have a greater impact on the environment. The strong TPC near the col point can trigger the vortex. As the temperature of the air column increases, the pressure drops, leading to the low-level convergence and the upper-level divergence, and the low-level cyclonic vorticity form under the effect of ageostrophic winds, which is favor of the formation of mesoscale vortex in the weak wind field. The formation of vortex promotes the intensification of precipitation. The release of the latent heat of the condensation induced by the TPC makes a positive feedback for the mesoscale vortex. The southwestly low-level jet enhances through the thermodynamic action, resulting in convergence of the leeward low-level jet and increase of precipitation, and divergence of the upwind low-level jet and decrease of precipitation, respectively. The col field is a favorable circumstance for the formation of mesoscale vortex.</p><p>Acknowledgements. This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41975128 and 41275099).</p>

Moist Dynamics and Orographic Precipitation in Northern and Central California during the New Year’s Flood of 1997

2005 ◽  
Vol 133 (6) ◽  
pp. 1594-1612 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Galewsky ◽  
Adam Sobel
Keyword(s):  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Atmospheric Stability ◽  
Central Valley ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Horizontal Distribution ◽  
Northern Coast ◽  
Central California ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Coast Ranges

Abstract The dynamics of moist orographic flows during the January 1997 floods in northern and central California are investigated using numerical simulations computed with the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5). Early in the event (31 December 1996–1 January 1997), the low-level winds offshore of California’s central coast were blocked by the topography of the Santa Lucia Range, and the low-level winds in the Central Valley were blocked by the topography of the central Sierra Nevada Range. In contrast, moisture-laden winds along the northern Coast Ranges and the northern Sierra Nevada flowed over topographic barriers. As the core of humid air migrated to the south over 24 h, the low-level barrier jets weakened as the atmospheric stability decreased, bringing heavy rainfall to the central and southern Sierra Nevada at the end of the event. The heavy precipitation during this event was largely controlled by the interaction of the flow with topography, with little contribution from non–topographically forced dynamical uplift. Latent heating was essential for lowering the effective stability of the flow and allowing the winds to flow over mountainous terrain, particularly in the northern Coast Ranges, and for enhancing the low-level jet and associated moisture transport. The horizontal distribution of static stability played a key role in the event by setting up a complex combination of flow-over and flow-around regimes that enhanced uplift in the northern Sierra Nevada during the period of heaviest rainfall.

scholarly journals The Synoptic Regulation of Dryline Intensity

2007 ◽  
Vol 135 (5) ◽  
pp. 1699-1709 ◽  
Author(s):  
David M. Schultz ◽  
Christopher C. Weiss ◽  
Paul M. Hoffman
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Boundary Layer ◽  
New Mexico ◽  
Short Wave ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
West Texas ◽  
Long Wave ◽  
Surface Cyclone ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Upper Level

Abstract To investigate the role of synoptic-scale processes in regulating the strength of the dryline, a dataset is constructed of all drylines occurring within the West Texas Mesonet (WTM) during April, May, and June of 2004 and 2005. In addition, dewpoint and wind data were collected from stations on the western (Morton; MORT) and eastern (Paducah; PADU) periphery of the WTM domain (230 km across), generally oriented east–west across the typical location of the dryline in west Texas. Drylines were characterized by two variables: the difference in dewpoint between MORT and PADU (hereafter, dryline intensity) and the difference in the eastward component of the wind between MORT and PADU (hereafter, dryline confluence). A high degree of correlation existed between the two variables, consistent with a strong role for dryline confluence in determining dryline intensity. Some cases departing from the strong correlation between these variables represent synoptically quiescent drylines whose strength is likely dominated by boundary layer mixing processes. Composite synoptic analyses were constructed of the upper and lower quartiles of dryline intensity, termed STRONG and WEAK, respectively. STRONG drylines were associated with a short-wave trough in the upper-level westerlies approaching west Texas, an accompanying surface cyclone over eastern New Mexico, and southerly flow over the south-central United States. This synoptic environment was favorable for enhancing the dryline confluence responsible for strengthening the dryline. In contrast, WEAK drylines were associated with an upper-level long-wave ridge over Texas and New Mexico, broad surface cyclogenesis over the southwestern United States, and a weak lee trough—the dryline confluence favorable for dryline intensification was much weaker. A third composite termed NO BOUNDARY was composed of dates with no surface airstream boundary (e.g., front, dryline) in the WTM domain. The NO BOUNDARY composite featured an upper-level long-wave ridge west of Texas and no surface cyclone or lee trough. The results of this study demonstrate the important role that synoptic-scale processes (e.g., surface lee troughs, upper-level short-wave troughs) play in regulating the strength of the dryline. Once such a favorable synoptic pattern occurs, mesoscale and boundary layer processes can lead to further intensification of the dryline.

scholarly journals Organization of convective ascents in a warm conveyor belt

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolas Blanchard ◽  
Florian Pantillon ◽  
Jean-Pierre Chaboureau ◽  
Julien Delanoë
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Doppler Radar ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Conveyor Belt ◽  
Isolated Cells ◽  
Low Level ◽  
The North ◽  
Low Level Jet ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are warm, moist airstreams of extratropical cyclones leading to widespread clouds and heavy precipitation, where associated diabatic processes can influence midlatitude dynamics. Although WCBs are traditionally seen as continuous slantwise ascents, recent studies have emphasized the presence of embedded convection and the production of mesoscale bands of negative potential vorticity (PV), the impact of which on large-scale dynamics is still debated. Here, detailed cloud and wind measurements obtained with airborne Doppler radar provide unique information on the WCB of the Stalactite cyclone on 2 October 2016 during the North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment. The measurements are complemented by a convection-permitting simulation, enabling online Lagrangian trajectories and 3-D objects clustering. The simulation reproduces well the mesoscale structure of the cyclone shown by satellite infrared observations, while the location of trajectories rising by 150 hPa during a relatively short 12 h window matches the WCB region expected from high clouds. One third of those trajectories, categorized as fast ascents, further reach a 100 hPa (2h)−1 threshold during their ascent and follow the cyclonic flow mainly at lower levels. In agreement with radar observations, convective updrafts are found in the WCB and are characterized by moderate reflectivity values up to 20 dBz and vertical velocities above 0.3 m s−1. Updraft objects and fast ascents consistently show three main types of convection in the WCB: (i) frontal convection along the surface cold front and the western edge of the low-level jet; (ii) banded convection at about 2 km altitude along the eastern edge of the low-level jet; (iii) mid-level convection below the upper-level jet. Mesoscale PV dipoles with strong positive and negative values are located in the vicinity of convective ascents and appear to accelerate both low-level and upper-level jets. Both convective ascents and negative PV organize into structures with coherent shape, location and evolution, thus suggesting a dynamical linkage. The results show that convection embedded in WCBs occurs in a coherent and organized manner rather than as isolated cells.

scholarly journals Cutoff low over the southeastern Pacific Ocean: a case study

2021 ◽  
Vol 71 (1) ◽  
pp. 17
Author(s):  
Nelson Quispe-Gutiérrez ◽  
Vannia Aliaga-Nestares ◽  
Diego Rodríguez-Zimmermann ◽  
Martí Bonshoms ◽  
Raquel Loayza ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Short Wave ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Reanalysis Dataset ◽  
Peruvian Andes ◽  
Wave Trough ◽  
Southeastern Pacific ◽  
Vorticity Equations ◽  
The Impact

Cutoff lows (COLs) are infrequent events in the tropics that can cause extreme rainfall, flash flooding and landslides in arid areas, such as western South America. In this study, the life cycle of a COL in the southeastern Pacific at the beginning of April 2012 was analysed using the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset. This paper examines: (1) the precursor flow evolution prior to the COL, its development and dissipation by applying the quasi-geostrophic and vorticity equations; and (2) the influence of the COL in the heavy precipitation events over the western Peruvian Andes. During April 2012, the highest amount of precipitation was recorded in Chosica (850 masl) with 37mm on 5 April. Days prior to the formation of the COL, a subtropical trough deepened by the amplification of a ridge over the tropical Pacific and the incursion of cold air from medium and low levels into the trough. The strong cyclonic vorticity advection was intensified by a short-wave trough embedded inside a long-wave one that strengthened the system on 5 April 2012. In the dissipation stage, warm vertical advection predominated, resulting in the reabsorption of the COL by a new trough. Understanding the behaviour COL systems is important for reducing the impact of these extreme weather events on lives and infrastructure in densely populated areas.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the Summertime Low-Level Winds Simulated by MM5 in the Central Valley of California

2010 ◽  
Vol 49 (11) ◽  
pp. 2230-2245 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara A. Michelson ◽  
Irina V. Djalalova ◽  
Jian-Wen Bao
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Central Valley ◽  
State University ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Fifth Generation ◽  
Southern Central ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
And Control

Abstract A season-long set of 5-day simulations between 1200 UTC 1 June and 1200 UTC 30 September 2000 are evaluated using the observations taken during the Central California Ozone Study (CCOS) 2000 experiment. The simulations are carried out using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5), which is widely used for air-quality simulations and control planning. The evaluation results strongly indicate that the model-simulated low-level winds in California’s Central Valley are biased in speed and direction: the simulated winds tend to have a stronger northwesterly component than observed. This bias is related to the difference in the observed and simulated large-scale, upper-level flows. The model simulations also show a bias in the height of the daytime atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), particularly in the northern and southern Central Valley. There is evidence to suggest that this bias in the daytime ABL height is not only associated with the large-scale, upper-level bias but also linked to apparent differences in the surface forcing.

scholarly journals Study of strong tornadoes in Central Europe: Various aspects of Forecasting and Nowcasting

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathrin Wapler ◽  
Marcus Beyer
Keyword(s):  
Situational Awareness ◽  
Great Majority ◽  
Short Wave ◽  
The Other ◽  
Typical Situation ◽  
Wave Trough ◽  
Area Of Interest ◽  
Storm Evolution ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Tornadic Storms

<p>Tornados pose a significant threat to life, property, and economy. Thus, an analysis of tornadoes is of high relevance. An understanding of historical events, e.g. regarding the characteristics of tornadic storms compared to multi-year storm statistics, may help to improve the situational awareness of future tornado events.</p><p>In this study, tornadic storms with a tornado intensity of F2 or stronger on the Fujita scale that occurred in recent years (2016 – 2020) in Germany were analyzed in detail. The four F3 tornadoes (Bützow, Affing, Bonndorf and Roetgen) and sixteen F2 tornadoes, which developed on 17 different days occurred in various parts of Germany. Most of the analysed tornadoes occurred from May to early September. The other three cases are typical winter cases that differ significantly from the summer cases in some aspects that are discussed where applicable. One case which happened in the third decade of September has characteristics form both, summer and winter, and is thus the only hybrid case. The great majority of all cases occurred during the second half of the day, most of them between 12 and 18 UTC. The most active hour was 16 to 17 UTC.</p><p>Regarding forecasting, similarities and differences of the prevailing synoptic and mesoscale conditions are assessed in addition to the convective environment of the events. Furthermore, the type of convection is analysed. The goal is to anticipate typical characteristics that enhance the threat of a potentially dangerous tornado situation. Using these findings may then help to strengthen the awareness of the forecaster. Two situations in mid- and upper-level flow are typical for the occurrence of strong tornadoes. On the majority of the analysed tornadic days, the event happened on the forward flank of a long wave trough that was slowly propagating eastward. The other typical situation is a vivid short wave trough passing rather fast over the area of interest from West to East.</p><p>Regarding nowcasting, a multi-source approach was applied to best analyse the events. For this purpose, radar reflectivity and rotation data were combined with lightning detection in order to analyse the tornadic storms with respect to storm mode and storm evolution as well as lightning and rotation characteristics. In many cases, radar radial wind data showed a persistent rotation track. The automatically detected mesocyclones had a vertical depth between 2.5 and 11 km at the time of the tornado, the diameter was above 8 km. The base of the rotation was low compared to multi-year statistics of all mesocyclonic storms. The lighting activity of the tornadic storms was high. In many cases, a lightning jump occurred between 5 and 120 minutes before the event.</p>

scholarly journals Genesis of Tropical Storm Debby (2006) within an African Easterly Wave: Roles of the Bottom-Up and Midlevel Pouch Processes

2015 ◽  
Vol 72 (6) ◽  
pp. 2267-2285 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lin Zhu ◽  
Da-Lin Zhang ◽  
Stefan F. Cecelski ◽  
Xinyong Shen
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Storm ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
Low Level ◽  
African Easterly Wave ◽  
The Core ◽  
Wave Trough ◽  
Warm Core ◽  
Easterly Wave ◽  
Convergence Results ◽  
Upper Level

Abstract The “bottom up” generation of low-level vortices (LVs) and midlevel vortices (MVs) during the genesis of Tropical Storm Debby (2006) and the roles of a midlevel “marsupial pouch” associated with an African easterly wave (AEW) are examined using an 84-h simulation with the finest grid size of 1.33 km. Results show that several MVs are generated in leading convective bands and then advected rearward into stratiform regions by front-to-rear ascending flows. Because of different Lagrangian storm-scale circulations, MVs and LVs are displaced along different paths during the early genesis stages. MVs propagate cyclonically inward within the AEW pouch while experiencing slow intensification and merging under the influence of converging flows. The MVs’ merging into a mesovortex is accelerated as they come closer to each other in the core region. In contrast, the low-level Lagrangian circulation is opened as a wave trough prior to tropical depression (TD) stage, so the LVs tend to “escape” from the pouch region. Only after the low-level flows become closed do some LVs congregate and contribute directly to Debby’s genesis. The TD stage is reached when the midlevel mesovortex and an LV are collocated with a convective zone having intense low-level convergence. Results also show the roles of upper-level warming in hydrostatically maintaining the midlevel pouch and producing mesoscale surface pressure falls. It is found that the vertically tilted AEW with a cold dome below is transformed to a deep warm-core TD vortex by subsiding motion. A conceptual model describing the key elements in the genesis of Debby is also provided.

scholarly journals The 13–14 December 2001 IMPROVE-2 Event. Part I: Synoptic and Mesoscale Evolution and Comparison with a Mesoscale Model Simulation

2005 ◽  
Vol 62 (10) ◽  
pp. 3474-3492 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew F. Garvert ◽  
Brian A. Colle ◽  
Clifford F. Mass
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Middle Level ◽  
Model Verification ◽  
Precipitation Event ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Baroclinic Zone

Abstract This paper describes the large-scale synoptic and mesoscale features of a major precipitation event that affected the second Improvement of Microphysical Parameterization through Observational Verification Experiment (IMPROVE-2) study area on 13–14 December 2001. The fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) was used to simulate both the synoptic and mesoscale features of the storm. Extensive model verification was performed utilizing the wealth of observational assets available during the experiment, including in situ aircraft measurements, radiosondes, radar data, and surface observations. The 13–14 December 2001 storm system was characterized by strong low-level cross-barrier flow, heavy precipitation, and the passage of an intense baroclinic zone. The model realistically simulated the three-dimensional thermodynamic and kinematic fields, the forward-tilted vertical structure of the baroclinic zone, and the associated major precipitation band. Deficiencies in the model simulations included an attenuated low-level jet accompanying the middle-level baroclinic zone and the lack of precipitation associated with the surface front; NOAA P-3 aircraft in situ data indicated that the model required 1.33-km grid spacing to capture realistically the complex mesoscale forcing related to terrain features. Despite the relatively skillful portrayal of mesoscale and synoptic structures, the model overpredicted precipitation in localized areas on the windward slopes and over a broad area to the lee of the Oregon Cascades.

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