scholarly journals Impacts of Climate Change on the Subduction of Mode and Intermediate Water Masses in the Southern Ocean

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (12) ◽  
pp. 3289-3302 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanie M. Downes ◽  
Nathaniel L. Bindoff ◽  
Stephen R. Rintoul

Abstract Changes in the temperature, salinity, and subduction of Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) and Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) between the 1950s and 2090s are diagnosed using the CSIRO Mark version 3.5 (Mk3.5) climate system model Caps under a CO2 forcing that reaches 860 ppm by the year 2100. These Southern Ocean upper-limb water masses ventilate the ocean interior, and changes in their properties have been related to climate change in numerous studies. Over time, the authors follow the low potential vorticity and salinity minimum layers describing SAMW and AAIW and find that the water column in the 2090s shifts to lighter densities by approximately 0.2 kg m−3. The model projects a reduction in the SAMW and AAIW annual mean subduction rates as a result of a combination of a shallower mixed layer, increased potential vorticity at the base of the mixed layer, and a net buoyancy gain. There is little change in the projected total volume of SAMW transported into the ocean interior via the subduction process; however, the authors find a significant decrease in the subduction of AAIW. The authors find overall that increases in the air–sea surface heat and freshwater fluxes mainly control the reduction in the mean loss of the SAMW and AAIW surface buoyancy flux when compared with the effect of changes supplied by Ekman transport because of increased zonal wind stress. In the A2 scenario, there are cooling and freshening on neutral density surfaces less than 27.3 kg m−3 in response to the warming and freshening observed at the ocean’s surface. The model projects deepening of density surfaces due to southward shifts in the outcrop regions and the downward displacement of these surfaces north of 45°S. The volume transport across 32°S is predicted to decrease in all three basins, with southward transport of SAMW and AAIW decreasing by up to 1.2 and 2.0 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1), respectively, in the Indian Ocean. These projected reductions in the subduction and transport of mode and intermediate water masses in the CSIRO Mk3.5 model could potentially decrease the absorption and storage of CO2 in the Southern Ocean.

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (24) ◽  
pp. 6526-6541 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanie M. Downes ◽  
Nathaniel L. Bindoff ◽  
Stephen R. Rintoul

Abstract A multimodel comparison method is used to assess the sensitivity of Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) and Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) formation to climate change. For the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 emissions scenario (where atmospheric CO2 is 860 ppm at 2100), the models show cooling and freshening on density surfaces less than about 27.4 kg m−3, a pattern that has been observed in the late twentieth century. SAMW (defined by the low potential vorticity layer) and AAIW (defined by the salinity minimum layer) warm and freshen as they shift to lighter density classes. Heat and freshwater fluxes at the ocean surface dominate the projected buoyancy gain at outcrop regions of SAMW and AAIW, whereas the net increase in the Ekman flux of heat and freshwater contributes to a lesser extent. This buoyancy gain, combined with shoaling of the winter mixed layer, reduces the volume of SAMW subducted into the ocean interior by a mean of 8 Sv (12%), and the subduction of AAIW decreases by a mean of 14 Sv (23%; 1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1). Decreases in the projected subduction of the key Southern Ocean upper-water masses imply a slow down in the Southern Ocean circulation in the future, driven by surface warming and freshening. A reduction in the subduction of intermediate waters implies a likely future decrease in the capacity of the Southern Ocean to sequester CO2.


2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 639-674 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Fripiat ◽  
A.-J. Cavagna ◽  
F. Dehairs ◽  
S. Speich ◽  
L. André ◽  
...  

Abstract. Water column silicon isotopic signatures (δ30Si) of silicic acid (Si(OH)4) in the Southern Ocean were measured along a meridional transect from South Africa (Subtropical Zone) down to 57° S (northern Weddell Gyre). These data are the first reported for a summer transect across the whole Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). δ30Si variations are large in the upper 1000 m, reflecting the effect of the silica pump superimposed upon meridional transfer across the ACC: the transport of Antarctic surface waters northward by a net Ekman drift and their convergence and mixing with warmer upper-ocean Si-depleted waters to the north. Using Si isotopic signatures, we determined different mixing interfaces between ACC water masses: the Antarctic Surface Water (AASW), the Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW), and the thermoclines in the low latitude areas. The residual silicic acid concentrations of end-members control the δ30Si alteration of the mixing products. With the exception of AASW, all mixing interfaces have a highly Si-depleted mixed layer end-member. These processes deplete the silicic acid AASW concentration across the different interfaces northward without significantly changing the AASW δ30Si. By comparing our new results with a previous study in the Australian sector we show that during the circumpolar transport of the ACC eastward, there is a slight but significant Si-isotopic lightening of the silicic acid pools from the Atlantic to the Australian sectors. This results either from the dissolution of biogenic silica in the deeper layers and/or from an isopycnal mixing with the deep water masses in the different oceanic basins: North Atlantic Deep Water in the Atlantic, and Indian Ocean deep water in the Indo-Australian sector. This eastward lightening is further transmitted to the subsurface waters, representing mixing interfaces between the surface and deeper layers. Using the Si-isotopic constraint, we estimate for the Greenwich Meridian a net biogenic silica production which should be representative of the annual export, at 4.5 ± 1.1 and 1.5 ± 0.4 mol Si m−2 for the Antarctic Zone and Polar Front Zone, respectively, in agreement with previous estimations. The summertime Si-supply into the mixed layer via vertical mixing was also assessed at 1.5 ± 0.4 and 0.1 ± 0.5 mol Si m−2, respectively.


2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paula C. Pardo ◽  
Bronte Tilbrook ◽  
Clothilde Langlais ◽  
Tom W. Trull ◽  
Steve R. Rintoul

Abstract. Biogeochemical change in the water masses of the Southern Ocean, south of Tasmania, was assessed for the 16-year period between 1995 and 2011 using data from 4 summer repeats of the WOCE/JGOFS/CLIVAR/GO-SHIP SR03 hydrographic section (at ~ 140° E). Changes in temperature, salinity, oxygen, and nutrients were used to disentangle the effect of solubility, biology, circulation and anthropogenic carbon (CANT) uptake on the variability of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) for 8 water mass layers defined by neutral surfaces (ϒn). CANT was estimated using an improved back-calculation method. Warming (~ 0.0352 ± 0.0170 °C yr−1) of Subtropical Central Water (STCW) and Antarctic Surface Water (AASW) layers decreased their gas solubility, and accordingly DIC concentrations increased less rapidly than expected from equilibration with rising atmospheric CO2 (~ 0.86 ± 0.16 μmol kg−1 yr−1 versus ~ 1 ± 0.12 μmol kg−1 yr−1). An increase in apparent oxygen utilisation (AOU) occurred in these layers due to either remineralization of organic matter or intensification of upwelling. The range of estimates for the increases of CANT were 0.71 ± 0.08 to 0.93 ± 0.08 μmol kg−1 yr−1 for STCW and 0.35 ± 0.14 to 0.65 ± 0.21 μmol kg−1 yr−1 for AASW, with the lower values in each water mass obtained by assigning all the AOU change to remineralization. DIC increases in the Sub-Antarctic Mode Water (SAMW, 1.10 ± 0.14 μmol kg−1 yr−1) and Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW, 0.40 ± 0.15 μmol kg−1 yr−1) layers were similar to the calculated CANT trends. For SAMW, the CANT increase tracked rising atmospheric CO2. As a consequence of the general DIC increase, decreases in total pH (pHT) and aragonite saturation (ΩAr) were found in most water masses, with the upper ocean and the SAMW layer presenting the largest trends for pHT decrease (~ −0.0031 ± 0.0004 yr−1). DIC increases in deep and bottom layers (~ 0.24 ± 0.04 μmol kg−1 yr−1) resulted from the advection of old deep waters to resupply increased upwelling, as corroborated by increasing silicate (~ 0.21 ± 0.07 μmol kg−1 yr−1), which also reached the upper layers near the Antarctic Divergence (~ 0.36 ± 0.06 μmol kg−1 yr−1) and was accompanied by an increase in salinity. The observed changes in DIC over the 16-year span caused a shoaling (~ 340 m) of the aragonite saturation depth (ASD, ΩAr = 1) within Upper Circumpolar Deep Water that followed the upwelling path of this layer. From all our results, we conclude a scenario of increased transport of deep waters into the section and enhanced upwelling at high latitudes for the period between 1995 and 2011, probably linked to a positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode. Although enhanced upwelling lowered the capacity of the AASW layer to uptake atmospheric CO2, it did not limit that of the newly forming SAMW and AAIW, which exhibited CANT storage rates (~ 0.41 ± 0.20 mol m−2 yr−1) twice that of the upper layers.


2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (8) ◽  
pp. 2652-2675 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wilbert Weijer ◽  
Bernadette M. Sloyan ◽  
Mathew E. Maltrud ◽  
Nicole Jeffery ◽  
Matthew W. Hecht ◽  
...  

Abstract The new Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), provides a powerful tool to understand and predict the earth’s climate system. Several aspects of the Southern Ocean in the CCSM4 are explored, including the surface climatology and interannual variability, simulation of key climate water masses (Antarctic Bottom Water, Subantarctic Mode Water, and Antarctic Intermediate Water), the transport and structure of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and interbasin exchange via the Agulhas and Tasman leakages and at the Brazil–Malvinas Confluence. It is found that the CCSM4 has varying degrees of accuracy in the simulation of the climate of the Southern Ocean when compared with observations. This study has identified aspects of the model that warrant further analysis that will result in a more comprehensive understanding of ocean–atmosphere–ice dynamics and interactions that control the earth’s climate and its variability.


2010 ◽  
Vol 40 (3) ◽  
pp. 509-529 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Baptiste Sallée ◽  
Kevin Speer ◽  
Steve Rintoul ◽  
S. Wijffels

Abstract An approximate mass (volume) budget in the surface layer of the Southern Ocean is used to investigate the intensity and regional variability of the ventilation process, discussed here in terms of subduction and upwelling. Ventilation resulting from Ekman pumping is estimated from satellite winds, the geostrophic mean component is assessed from a climatology strengthened with Argo data, and the eddy-induced advection is included via the parameterization of Gent and McWilliams, together with eddy mixing estimates. All three components contribute significantly to ventilation. Finally, the seasonal cycle of the upper ocean is resolved using Argo data. The circumpolar-averaged circulation shows an upwelling in the Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) density classes, which is carried north into a zone of dense Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) subduction. Although no consistent net production is found in the light SAMW density classes, a large subduction of Subtropical Mode Water (STMW) is observed. The STMW area is fed by convergence of a southward and a northward residual meridional circulation. The eddy-induced contribution is important for the water mass transport in the vicinity of the Antartic Circumpolar Current. It balances the horizontal northward Ekman transport as well as the vertical Ekman pumping. While the circumpolar-averaged upper cell structure is consistent with the average surface fluxes, it hides strong longitudinal regional variations and does not represent any local regime. Subduction shows strong regional variability with bathymetrically constrained hotspots of large subduction. These hotspots are consistent with the interior potential vorticity structure and circulation in the thermocline. Pools of SAMW and AAIW of different densities are found along the circumpolar belt in association with the regional pattern of subduction and interior circulation.


2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (11) ◽  
pp. 3894-3908 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roland Séférian ◽  
Daniele Iudicone ◽  
Laurent Bopp ◽  
Tilla Roy ◽  
Gurvan Madec

Impacts of climate change on air–sea CO2 exchange are strongly region dependent, particularly in the Southern Ocean. Yet, in the Southern Ocean the role of water masses in the uptake of anthropogenic carbon is still debated. Here, a methodology is applied that tracks the carbon flux of each Southern Ocean water mass in response to climate change. A global marine biogeochemical model was coupled to a climate model, making 140-yr Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5)-type simulations, where atmospheric CO2 increased by 1% yr−1 to 4 times the preindustrial concentration (4 × CO2). Impacts of atmospheric CO2 (carbon-induced sensitivity) and climate change (climate-induced sensitivity) on the water mass carbon fluxes have been isolated performing two sensitivity simulations. In the first simulation, the atmospheric CO2 influences solely the marine carbon cycle, while in the second simulation, it influences both the marine carbon cycle and earth’s climate. At 4 × CO2, the cumulative carbon uptake by the Southern Ocean reaches 278 PgC, 53% of which is taken up by modal and intermediate water masses. The carbon-induced and climate-induced sensitivities vary significantly between the water masses. The carbon-induced sensitivities enhance the carbon uptake of the water masses, particularly for the denser classes. But, enhancement strongly depends on the water mass structure. The climate-induced sensitivities either strengthen or weaken the carbon uptake and are influenced by local processes through changes in CO2 solubility and stratification, and by large-scale changes in outcrop surface (OS) areas. Changes in OS areas account for 45% of the climate-induced reduction in the Southern Ocean carbon uptake and are a key factor in understanding the future carbon uptake of the Southern Ocean.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Meijers ◽  
David Munday ◽  
Tilla Roy ◽  
Jean-Baptiste Sallée

<p>We examine the representation of Southern Ocean water mass properties, circulation and transformation in an ensemble of CMIP6 models, under historical climate forcing conditions and under a range of future climate scenarios. By using a dynamically defined water mass classification scheme based on physical characteristics (salinity minimum, potential vorticity minimum etc) rather than fixed water mass properties, we are able to compare water masses across a range of models, often with significant water mass property differences, as well as within single models where water mass properties change under climate forcing. We find that under strong climate forcing scenarios (ssp585) the heat content of SubAntarctic Mode Water (SAMW), Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) and Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) all increase consistently across models, while Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) does not change significantly. Importantly this change is strongly modulated by using dynamic definitions. Both SAMW and AAIW lighten significantly in density, and using time varying definitions their volumes remain relatively constant, whereas using a time invariant definition both experience extremely significant increases in volume and heat content. We show that dynamically it is the ocean interior, CDW and AAIW, that dominate heat uptake under strong forcing. Similarly, dissolved inorganic carbon uptake occurs predominantly in the CDW. In contrast AABW volumes decrease significantly.</p><p>There is a consistent ‘fingerprint’ of temperature change in density space across all models under strong forcing scenarios, with CDW experiencing surface intensified warming as it shoals to the south, and SAMW/AAIW demonstrating cooling and freshening in their subducted layers and a uniform warming in the surface layers. We show that the upper cell of the residual overturning circulation (calculated with the new availability of eddy parametrisation terms in CMIP6) consistently increases across all models evaluated, by 10-50% (up to 10 Sv in some models), while the lower cell is dramatically decreased in strength, declining by up to 70% in some models. We provide evidence that surface warming may be modulated by increased eddy driven upwelling, as well as surface freshening driving the shutdown of AABW formation. Finally we compute a Walin water mass budget, balancing surface forcing, interior storage and meridional export and inferring interior mixing between water masses, and contrast all findings with similar analyses in CMIP5.</p><p> </p>


2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (22) ◽  
pp. 5217-5237 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paula Conde Pardo ◽  
Bronte Tilbrook ◽  
Clothilde Langlais ◽  
Thomas William Trull ◽  
Stephen Rich Rintoul

Abstract. Biogeochemical change in the water masses of the Southern Ocean, south of Tasmania, was assessed for the 16-year period between 1995 and 2011 using data from four summer repeats of the WOCE–JGOFS–CLIVAR–GO-SHIP (Key et al., 2015; Olsen et al., 2016) SR03 hydrographic section (at ∼ 140° E). Changes in temperature, salinity, oxygen, and nutrients were used to disentangle the effect of solubility, biology, circulation and anthropogenic carbon (CANT) uptake on the variability of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) for eight water mass layers defined by neutral surfaces (γn). CANT was estimated using an improved back-calculation method. Warming (∼ 0.0352 ± 0.0170 °C yr−1) of Subtropical Central Water (STCW) and Antarctic Surface Water (AASW) layers decreased their gas solubility, and accordingly DIC concentrations increased less rapidly than expected from equilibration with rising atmospheric CO2 (∼ 0.86 ± 0.16 µmol kg−1 yr−1 versus ∼ 1 ± 0.12 µmol kg−1 yr−1). An increase in apparent oxygen utilisation (AOU) occurred in these layers due to either remineralisation of organic matter or intensification of upwelling. The range of estimates for the increases in CANT were 0.71 ± 0.08 to 0.93 ± 0.08 µmol kg−1 yr−1 for STCW and 0.35 ± 0.14 to 0.65 ±  0.21 µmol kg−1 yr−1 for AASW, with the lower values in each water mass obtained by assigning all the AOU change to remineralisation. DIC increases in the Sub-Antarctic Mode Water (SAMW, 1.10 ± 0.14 µmol kg−1 yr−1) and Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW, 0.40 ± 0.15 µmol kg−1 yr−1) layers were similar to the calculated CANT trends. For SAMW, the CANT increase tracked rising atmospheric CO2. As a consequence of the general DIC increase, decreases in total pH (pHT) and aragonite saturation (ΩAr) were found in most water masses, with the upper ocean and the SAMW layer presenting the largest trends for pHT decrease (∼ −0.0031 ± 0.0004 yr−1). DIC increases in deep and bottom layers (∼ 0.24 ± 0.04 µmol kg−1 yr−1) resulted from the advection of old deep waters to resupply increased upwelling, as corroborated by increasing silicate (∼ 0.21 ± 0.07 µmol kg−1 yr−1), which also reached the upper layers near the Antarctic Divergence (∼ 0.36 ± 0.06 µmol kg−1 yr−1) and was accompanied by an increase in salinity. The observed changes in DIC over the 16-year span caused a shoaling (∼ 340 m) of the aragonite saturation depth (ASD, ΩAr =  1) within Upper Circumpolar Deep Water that followed the upwelling path of this layer. From all our results, we conclude a scenario of increased transport of deep waters into the section and enhanced upwelling at high latitudes for the period between 1995 and 2011 linked to strong westerly winds. Although enhanced upwelling lowered the capacity of the AASW layer to uptake atmospheric CO2, it did not limit that of the newly forming SAMW and AAIW, which exhibited CANT storage rates (∼ 0.41 ± 0.20 mol m−2 yr−1) twice that of the upper layers.


2008 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 847-864 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. W. Boyd ◽  
S. C. Doney ◽  
R. Strzepek ◽  
J. Dusenberry ◽  
K. Lindsay ◽  
...  

Abstract. Concurrent changes in ocean chemical and physical properties influence phytoplankton dynamics via alterations in carbonate chemistry, nutrient and trace metal inventories and upper ocean light environment. Using a fully coupled, global carbon-climate model (Climate System Model 1.4-carbon), we quantify anthropogenic climate change relative to the background natural interannual variability for the Southern Ocean over the period 2000 and 2100. Model results are interpreted using our understanding of the environmental control of phytoplankton growth rates – leading to two major findings. Firstly, comparison with results from phytoplankton perturbation experiments, in which environmental properties have been altered for key species (e.g., bloom formers), indicates that the predicted rates of change in oceanic properties over the next few decades are too subtle to be represented experimentally at present. Secondly, the rate of secular climate change will not exceed background natural variability, on seasonal to interannual time-scales, for at least several decades – which may not provide the prevailing conditions of change, i.e. constancy, needed for phytoplankton adaptation. Taken together, the relatively subtle environmental changes, due to climate change, may result in adaptation by resident phytoplankton, but not for several decades due to the confounding effects of climate variability. This presents major challenges for the detection and attribution of climate change effects on Southern Ocean phytoplankton. We advocate the development of multi-faceted tests/metrics that will reflect the relative plasticity of different phytoplankton functional groups and/or species to respond to changing ocean conditions.


Ocean Science ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 533-547 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Fripiat ◽  
A.-J. Cavagna ◽  
F. Dehairs ◽  
S. Speich ◽  
L. André ◽  
...  

Abstract. Silicon isotopic signatures (δ30Si) of water column silicic acid (Si(OH)4) were measured in the Southern Ocean, along a meridional transect from South Africa (Subtropical Zone) down to 57° S (northern Weddell Gyre). This provides the first reported data of a summer transect across the whole Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). δ30Si variations are large in the upper 1000 m, reflecting the effect of the silica pump superimposed upon meridional water transfer across the ACC: the transport of Antarctic surface waters northward by a net Ekman drift and their convergence and mixing with warmer upper-ocean Si-depleted waters to the north. Using Si isotopic signatures, we determine different mixing interfaces: the Antarctic Surface Water (AASW), the Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW), and thermoclines in the low latitude areas. The residual silicic acid concentrations of end-members control the δ30Si alteration of the mixing products and with the exception of AASW, all mixing interfaces have a highly Si-depleted mixed layer end-member. These processes deplete the silicic acid AASW concentration northward, across the different interfaces, without significantly changing the AASW δ30Si composition. By comparing our new results with a previous study in the Australian sector we show that during the circumpolar transport of the ACC eastward, the δ30Si composition of the silicic acid pools is getting slightly, but significantly lighter from the Atlantic to the Australian sectors. This results either from the dissolution of biogenic silica in the deeper layers and/or from an isopycnal mixing with the deep water masses in the different oceanic basins: North Atlantic Deep Water in the Atlantic, and Indian Ocean deep water in the Indo-Australian sector. This isotopic trend is further transmitted to the subsurface waters, representing mixing interfaces between the surface and deeper layers. Through the use of δ30Si constraints, net biogenic silica production (representative of annual export), at the Greenwich Meridian is estimated to be 5.2 ± 1.3 and 1.1 ± 0.3 mol Si m−2 for the Antarctic Zone and Polar Front Zone, respectively. This is in good agreement with previous estimations. Furthermore, summertime Si-supply into the mixed layer of both zones, via vertical mixing, is estimated to be 1.6 ± 0.4 and 0.1 ± 0.5 mol Si m−2, respectively.


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