Temperature Trend Patterns in Southern Hemisphere High Latitudes: Novel Indicators of Stratospheric Change

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (23) ◽  
pp. 6325-6341 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pu Lin ◽  
Qiang Fu ◽  
Susan Solomon ◽  
John M. Wallace
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Temperature Trend ◽  
Radiative Cooling ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Zonal Wavenumber ◽  
Simulated Temperature

Abstract Robust stratospheric temperature trend patterns are suggested in the winter and spring seasons in the Southern Hemisphere high latitudes from the satellite-borne Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) measurement for 1979–2007. These patterns serve as indicators of key processes governing temperature and ozone changes in the Antarctic. The observed patterns are characterized by cooling and warming regions of comparable magnitudes, with the strongest local trends occurring in September and October. In September, ozone depletion induces radiative cooling, and strengthening of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) induces dynamical warming. Because the trends induced by these two processes are centered in different locations in September, they do not cancel each other, but rather produce a wavelike structure. In contrast, during October, the ozone-induced radiative cooling and the BDC-induced warming exhibit a more zonally symmetric structure than in September, and hence largely cancel each other. However, the October quasi-stationary planetary wavenumber 1 has shifted eastward from 1979 to 2007, producing a zonal wavenumber-1 trend structure, which dominates the observed temperature trend pattern. Simulated temperature changes for 1979–2007 from coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) experiments run for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) are compared with the observations. In general, the simulated temperature changes are dominated by zonally symmetric ozone-induced radiative cooling. The models fail to simulate the warming in the southern polar stratosphere, implying a lack of the BDC strengthening in these models. They also fail to simulate the quasi-stationary planetary wave changes observed in October and November.

scholarly journals Stratospheric warming in Southern Hemisphere high latitudes since 1979

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (13) ◽  
pp. 4329-4340 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Hu ◽  
Q. Fu
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Anthropogenic Activity ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Stratospheric Warming ◽  
Sst Warming ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. In the present study, we show evidence of significant stratospheric warming over Southern Hemisphere high latitudes and large portions of the Antarctic polar region in winter and spring seasons, with a maximum warming of 7–8°C in September and October, using satellite Microwave Sounding Unit observations for 1979–2006. It is found that this warming is associated with increasing wave activity from the troposphere into the stratosphere, suggesting that the warming is caused by enhanced wave-driven adiabatic heating. We show that the stratospheric warming in Southern Hemisphere high latitudes has close correlations with sea surface temperature (SST) increases, and that general circulation model simulations forced with observed time-varying SSTs reproduce similar warming trend patterns in the Antarctic stratosphere. The simulated stratospheric warming is closely related to increasing wave activity in the Southern Hemisphere. These findings suggest that the stratospheric warming is likely induced by SST warming. As SST warming continues as a consequence of greenhouse gas increases due to anthropogenic activity, the stratospheric warming would also continue, which has important implications to the recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole.

scholarly journals Temperature Projections over the Indus River Basin of Pakistan Using Statistical Downscaling

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 195
Author(s):  
Muhammad Saleem Pomee ◽  
Elke Hertig
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Indus River ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Maximum Heating

We assessed maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures over Pakistan’s Indus basin during the 21st century using statistical downscaling. A particular focus was given to spatiotemporal heterogeneity, reference and General Circulation Model (GCM) uncertainties, and statistical skills of regression models using an observational profile that could significantly be improved by recent high-altitude observatories. First, we characterized the basin into homogeneous climate regions using K-means clustering. Predictors from ERA-Interim reanalysis were then used to model observed temperatures skillfully and quantify reference and GCM uncertainties. Thermodynamical (dynamical) variables mainly governed reference (GCM) uncertainties. The GCM predictors under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were used as “new” predictors in statistical models to project ensemble temperature changes. Our analysis projected non-uniform warming but could not validate elevation-dependent warming (EDW) at the basin scale. We obtained more significant warming during the westerly-dominated seasons, with maximum heating during the winter season through Tmin changes. The most striking feature is a low-warming monsoon (with the possibility of no change to slight cooling) over the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). Therefore, the likelihood of continuing the anomalous UIB behavior during the primary melt season may not entirely be ruled out at the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5.

scholarly journals A new mechanism for atmospheric mercury redox chemistry: Implications for the global mercury budget

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hannah M. Horowitz ◽  
Daniel J. Jacob ◽  
Yanxu Zhang ◽  
Theodore S. Dibble ◽  
Franz Slemr ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Wet Deposition ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Gulf Coast ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Redox Chemistry ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Atmospheric Mercury ◽  
Water Soluble ◽  
Second Stage

Abstract. Mercury (Hg) is emitted to the atmosphere mainly as volatile elemental Hg0. Oxidation to water-soluble HgII controls Hg deposition to ecosystems. Here we implement a new mechanism for atmospheric Hg0 / HgII redox chemistry in the GEOS-Chem global model and examine the implications for the global atmospheric Hg budget and deposition patterns. Our simulation includes a new coupling of GEOS-Chem to an ocean general circulation model (MITgcm), enabling a global 3-D representation of atmosphere-ocean Hg0 / HgII cycling. We find that atomic bromine (Br) of marine organobromine origin is the main atmospheric Hg0 oxidant, and that second-stage HgBr oxidation is mainly by the NO2 and HO2 radicals. The resulting lifetime of tropospheric Hg0 against oxidation is 2.7 months, shorter than in previous models. Fast HgII atmospheric reduction must occur in order to match the ~ 6-month lifetime of Hg against deposition implied by the observed atmospheric variability of total gaseous mercury (TGM ≡ Hg0 + HgII(g)). We implement this reduction in GEOS-Chem as photolysis of aqueous-phase HgII-organic complexes in aerosols and clouds, resulting in a TGM lifetime of 5.2 months against deposition and matching both mean observed TGM and its variability. Model sensitivity analysis shows that the interhemispheric gradient of TGM, previously used to infer a longer Hg lifetime against deposition, is misleading because southern hemisphere Hg mainly originates from oceanic emissions rather than transport from the northern hemisphere. The model reproduces the observed seasonal TGM variation at northern mid-latitudes (maximum in February, minimum in September) driven by chemistry and oceanic evasion, but does not reproduce the lack of seasonality observed at southern hemisphere marine sites. Aircraft observations in the lowermost stratosphere show a strong TGM-ozone relationship indicative of fast Hg0 oxidation, but we show that this relationship provides only a weak test of Hg chemistry because it is also influenced by mixing. The model reproduces observed Hg wet deposition fluxes over North America, Europe, and China, including the maximum over the US Gulf Coast driven by HgBr oxidation by NO2 and HO2. Low Hg wet deposition observed over rural China is attributed to fast HgII reduction in the presence of high organic aerosol concentrations. We find that 80 % of global HgII deposition takes place over the oceans, reflecting the marine origin of Br and low concentrations of marine organics for HgII reduction, and most of HO2 and NO2 for second-stage HgBr oxidation.

scholarly journals Interannual Variability of Stratospheric Final Warming in the Southern Hemisphere and its Tropospheric Origin

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-59
Author(s):  
Soichiro Hirano ◽  
Masashi Kohma ◽  
Kaoru Sato
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Stationary Waves ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Wave Source ◽  
Barotropic Model ◽  
Stratospheric Final Warming ◽  
Zonal Wavenumber ◽  
Favorable Conditions

AbstractThe relation between interannual variability of stratospheric final warming (SFW) and tropospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) is explored using reanalysis data and a linear barotropic model. The analysis is focused on quasi-stationary waves with zonal wavenumber 1 (s = 1 QSWs; s is zonal wavenumber), which are the dominant component of the SH extratropical planetary waves.First, interannual variability of SFW is investigated in terms of amplitudes of stratospheric and tropospheric s = 1 QSWs, and wave transmission properties of the mean flow from the late austral winter to spring. Upward Eliassen–Palm flux due to s = 1 QSWs is larger from the stratosphere down to the middle troposphere in early-SFW years than late-SFW years. More favorable conditions for propagation of s = 1 stationary waves into the stratosphere are identified in early-SFW years. These results indicate that the amplification of tropospheric s = 1 QSWs and the favorable conditions for their propagation into the stratosphere lead to the amplification of stratospheric s = 1 QSWs, and hence earlier SFWs.Next, numerical calculations using a linear barotropic model are performed to explore how tropospheric s = 1 QSWs at high latitudes amplifies in early-SFW years. By using tropical Rossby wave source and horizontal winds in the reanalysis data as a source and background field, respectively, differences in s = 1 steady responses between early- and late-SFWs are examined at high latitudes. It is suggested that the larger amplitudes of tropospheric s = 1 QSWs in early-SFW years are attributed to differences in wave propagation characteristics associated with structure of the midlatitude jets in austral spring.

Zonal Wave 3 Pattern in the Southern Hemisphere generated by tropical convection

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rishav Goyal ◽  
Martin Jucker ◽  
Alex Sen Gupta ◽  
Harry Hendon ◽  
Matthew England
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Hadley Cell ◽  
Wave Source ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract A distinctive feature of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropical atmospheric circulation is the quasi-stationary zonal wave 3 (ZW3) pattern, characterized by three high and three low-pressure centers around the SH extratropics. This feature is present in both the mean atmospheric circulation and its variability on daily, seasonal and interannual timescales. While the ZW3 pattern has significant impacts on meridional heat transport and Antarctic sea ice extent, the reason for its existence remains uncertain, although it has long been assumed to be linked to the existence of three major land masses in the SH extratropics. Here we use an atmospheric general circulation model to show that the stationery ZW3 pattern is instead driven by zonal asymmetric deep atmospheric convection in the tropics, with little to no role played by the orography or land masses in the extratropics. Localized regions of deep convection in the tropics form a local Hadley cell which in turn creates a wave source in the subtropics that excites a poleward and eastward propagating wave train which forms stationary waves in the SH high latitudes. Our findings suggest that changes in tropical deep convection, either due to natural variability or climate change, will impact the zonal wave 3 pattern, with implications for Southern Hemisphere climate, ocean circulation, and sea-ice.

The Freshening of Surface Waters in High Latitudes: Effects on the Thermohaline and Wind-Driven Circulations

2007 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 896-907 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexey Fedorov ◽  
Marcelo Barreiro ◽  
Giulio Boccaletti ◽  
Ronald Pacanowski ◽  
S. George Philander
Keyword(s):  
Surface Waters ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Thermohaline Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Critical Parameters ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Oceanic Circulation ◽  
Meridional Overturning ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract The impacts of a freshening of surface waters in high latitudes on the deep, slow, thermohaline circulation have received enormous attention, especially the possibility of a shutdown in the meridional overturning that involves sinking of surface waters in the northern Atlantic Ocean. A recent study by Fedorov et al. has drawn attention to the effects of a freshening on the other main component of the oceanic circulation—the swift, shallow, wind-driven circulation that varies on decadal time scales and is closely associated with the ventilated thermocline. That circulation too involves meridional overturning, but its variations and critical transitions affect mainly the Tropics. A surface freshening in mid- to high latitudes can deepen the equatorial thermocline to such a degree that temperatures along the equator become as warm in the eastern part of the basin as they are in the west, the tropical zonal sea surface temperature gradient virtually disappears, and permanently warm conditions prevail in the Tropics. In a model that has both the wind-driven and thermohaline components of the circulation, which factors determine the relative effects of a freshening on the two components and its impact on climate? Studies with an idealized ocean general circulation model find that vertical diffusivity is one of the critical parameters that affect the relative strength of the two circulation components and hence their response to a freshening. The spatial structure of the freshening and imposed meridional temperature gradients are other important factors.

Nonlinear Climate and Hydrological Responses to Aerosol Effects

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (6) ◽  
pp. 1329-1339 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi Ming ◽  
V. Ramaswamy
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Indirect Effects ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Cloud Condensation Nuclei ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Hydrological Responses ◽  
Aerosol Effects

Abstract The equilibrium temperature and hydrological responses to the total aerosol effects (i.e., direct, semidirect, and indirect effects) are studied using a modified version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory atmosphere general circulation model (AM2.1) coupled to a mixed layer ocean model. The treatment of aerosol–liquid cloud interactions and associated indirect effects is based upon a prognostic scheme of cloud droplet number concentration, with an explicit representation of cloud condensation nuclei activation involving sulfate, organic carbon, and sea salt aerosols. Increasing aerosols from preindustrial (1860) to present-day (1990) levels leads to a decrease of 1.9 K in the global annual mean surface temperature. The cooling is relatively strong over the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude land owing to the high aerosol burden there, while being amplified at high latitudes. When being subject to aerosols and radiatively active gases (i.e., well-mixed greenhouse gases and ozone) simultaneously, the model climate behaves nonlinearly; the simulated increase in surface temperature (0.55 K) is considerably less than the arithmetic sum of separate aerosol and gas effects (0.86 K). The thermal responses are accompanied by the nonlinear changes in cloud fields, which are amplified owing to the surface albedo feedback at high latitudes. The two effects completely offset each other in the Northern Hemisphere, while gas effect is dominant in the Southern Hemisphere. Both factors are crucial in shaping the regional responses. Interhemispheric asymmetry in aerosol-induced cooling yields a southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone, thus giving rise to a significant reduction in precipitation north of the equator, and an increase to the south. The simulations show that the change of precipitation in response to the simultaneous increases in aerosols and gases not only largely follows the same pattern as that for aerosols alone, but that it is also substantially strengthened in terms of magnitude south of 10°N. This is quite different from the damping expected from adding up individual responses, and further indicates the nonlinearity in the model’s hydrological response.

Zonal wavenumber three traveling waves in the northern hemisphere of Mars simulated with a general circulation model

Icarus ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 223 (2) ◽  
pp. 654-676 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huiqun Wang ◽  
Mark I. Richardson ◽  
Anthony D. Toigo ◽  
Claire E. Newman
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation Model ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Traveling Waves ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Zonal Wavenumber

Tropical Connections to Climatic Change in the Extratropical Southern Hemisphere: The Role of Atlantic SST Trends

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (13) ◽  
pp. 4923-4936 ◽  
Author(s):  
Graham R. Simpkins ◽  
Shayne McGregor ◽  
Andréa S. Taschetto ◽  
Laura M. Ciasto ◽  
Matthew H. England
Keyword(s):  
Climatic Change ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Geopotential Height ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Rossby Waves ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Hadley Cell ◽  
Austral Spring ◽  
The Impact

The austral spring relationships between sea surface temperature (SST) trends and the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropical atmospheric circulation are investigated using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). A suite of simulations are analyzed wherein the AGCM is forced by underlying SST conditions in which recent trends are constrained to individual ocean basins (Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic), allowing the impact of each region to be assessed in isolation. When forced with observed global SST, the model broadly replicates the spatial pattern of extratropical SH geopotential height trends seen in reanalyses. However, when forcing by each ocean basin separately, similar structures arise only when Atlantic SST trends are included. It is further shown that teleconnections from the Atlantic are associated with perturbations to the zonal Walker circulation and the corresponding intensification of the local Hadley cell, the impact of which results in the development of atmospheric Rossby waves. Thus, increased Rossby waves, forced by positive Atlantic SST trends, may have played a role in driving geopotential height trends in the SH extratropics. Furthermore, these atmospheric circulation changes promote warming throughout the Antarctic Peninsula and much of West Antarctica, with a pattern that closely matches recent observational records. This suggests that Atlantic SST trends, via a teleconnection to the SH extratropics, may have contributed to springtime climatic change in the SH extratropics over the past three decades.

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