Importance of Horizontally Inhomogeneous Environmental Initial Conditions to Ensemble Storm-Scale Radar Data Assimilation and Very Short-Range Forecasts

2010 ◽  
Vol 138 (4) ◽  
pp. 1250-1272 ◽  
Author(s):  
David J. Stensrud ◽  
Jidong Gao
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Short Range ◽  
Doppler Radar ◽  
Environmental Variability ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Ensemble Member ◽  
Radar Observations ◽  
Convective Scale ◽  
Background Fields

Abstract The assimilation of operational Doppler radar observations into convection-resolving numerical weather prediction models for very short-range forecasting represents a significant scientific and technological challenge. Numerical experiments over the past few years indicate that convective-scale forecasts are sensitive to the details of the data assimilation methodology, the quality of the radar data, the parameterized microphysics, and the storm environment. In this study, the importance of horizontal environmental variability to very short-range (0–1 h) convective-scale ensemble forecasts initialized using Doppler radar observations is investigated for the 4–5 May 2007 Greensburg, Kansas, tornadic thunderstorm event. Radar observations of reflectivity and radial velocity from the operational Doppler radar network at 0230 UTC 5 May 2007, during the time of the first large tornado, are assimilated into each ensemble member using a three-dimensional variational data assimilation system (3DVAR) developed at the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS). Very short-range forecasts are made using the nonhydrostatic Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) model from each ensemble member and the results are compared with the observations. Explicit three-dimensional environmental variability information is provided to the convective-scale ensemble using analyses from a 30-km mesoscale ensemble data assimilation system. Comparisons between convective-scale ensembles with initial conditions produced by 3DVAR using 1) background fields that are horizontally homogeneous but vertically inhomogeneous (i.e., have different vertical environmental profiles) and 2) background fields that are horizontally and vertically inhomogeneous are undertaken. Results show that the ensemble with horizontally and vertically inhomogeneous background fields provides improved predictions of thunderstorm structure, mesocyclone track, and low-level circulation track than the ensemble with horizontally homogeneous background fields. This suggests that knowledge of horizontal environmental variability is important to successful convective-scale ensemble predictions and needs to be included in real-data experiments.

Impacts of 4DVAR Assimilation of Airborne Doppler Radar Observations on Numerical Simulations of the Genesis of Typhoon Nuri (2008)

2014 ◽  
Vol 53 (10) ◽  
pp. 2325-2343 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhan Li ◽  
Zhaoxia Pu ◽  
Juanzhen Sun ◽  
Wen-Chau Lee
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Radial Velocity ◽  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
Doppler Radar ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Radar Observations ◽  
Wind Analysis ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Airborne Doppler Radar

AbstractThe Weather Research and Forecasting Model and its four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) system are employed to examine the impact of airborne Doppler radar observations on predicting the genesis of Typhoon Nuri (2008). Electra Doppler Radar (ELDORA) airborne radar data, collected during the Office of Naval Research–sponsored Tropical Cyclone Structure 2008 field experiment, are used for data assimilation experiments. Two assimilation methods are evaluated and compared, namely, the direct assimilation of radar-measured radial velocity and the assimilation of three-dimensional wind analysis derived from the radar radial velocity. Results show that direct assimilation of radar radial velocity leads to better intensity forecasts, as this process enhances the development of convective systems and improves the inner-core structure of Nuri, whereas assimilation of the radar-retrieved wind analysis is more beneficial for tracking forecasts, as it results in improved environmental flows. The assimilation of both the radar-retrieved wind and the radial velocity can lead to better forecasts in both intensity and tracking, if the radial velocity observations are assimilated first and the retrieved winds are then assimilated in the same data assimilation window. In addition, experiments with and without radar data assimilation led to developing and nondeveloping disturbances in numerical simulations of Nuri’s genesis. The improved initial conditions and forecasts from the data assimilation imply that the enhanced midlevel vortex and moisture conditions are favorable for the development of deep convection in the center of the pouch and eventually contribute to Nuri’s genesis. The improved simulations of the convection and associated environmental conditions produce enhanced upper-level warming in the core region and lead to the drop in sea level pressure.

Assimilation of Doppler Radar Observations with a Regional 3DVAR System: Impact of Doppler Velocities on Forecasts of a Heavy Rainfall Case

2005 ◽  
Vol 44 (6) ◽  
pp. 768-788 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qingnong Xiao ◽  
Ying-Hwa Kuo ◽  
Juanzhen Sun ◽  
Wen-Chau Lee ◽  
Eunha Lim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radial Velocity ◽  
Vertical Velocity ◽  
Short Range ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Doppler Radar ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Radial Velocities ◽  
Doppler Velocity ◽  
Rainfall Forecast ◽  
Background Fields

Abstract In this paper, the impact of Doppler radar radial velocity on the prediction of a heavy rainfall event is examined. The three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system for use with the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) is further developed to enable the assimilation of radial velocity observations. Doppler velocities from the Korean Jindo radar are assimilated into MM5 using the 3DVAR system for a heavy rainfall case that occurred on 10 June 2002. The results show that the assimilation of Doppler velocities has a positive impact on the short-range prediction of heavy rainfall. The dynamic balance between atmospheric wind and thermodynamic fields, based on the Richardson equation, is introduced to the 3DVAR system. Vertical velocity (w) increments are included in the 3DVAR system to enable the assimilation of the vertical velocity component of the Doppler radial velocity observation. The forecast of the hydrometeor variables of cloud water (qc) and rainwater (qr) is used in the 3DVAR background fields. The observation operator for Doppler radial velocity is developed and implemented within the 3DVAR system. A series of experiments, assimilating the Korean Jindo radar data for the 10 June 2002 heavy rainfall case, indicates that the scheme for Doppler velocity assimilation is stable and robust in a cycling mode making use of high-frequency radar data. The 3DVAR with assimilation of Doppler radial velocities is shown to improve the prediction of the rainband movement and intensity change. As a result, an improved skill for the short-range heavy rainfall forecast is obtained. The forecasts of other quantities, for example, winds, are also improved. Continuous assimilation with 3-h update cycles is important in producing an improved heavy rainfall forecast. Assimilation of Doppler radar radial velocities using the 3DVAR background fields from a cycling procedure produces skillful rainfall forecasts when verified against observations.

scholarly journals Improving the Model Convective Storm Quantitative Precipitation Nowcasting by Assimilating State Variables Retrieved from Multiple-Doppler Radar Observations

2014 ◽  
Vol 142 (11) ◽  
pp. 4017-4035 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu-Chieng Liou ◽  
Jian-Luen Chiou ◽  
Wei-Hao Chen ◽  
Hsin-Yu Yu
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Doppler Radar ◽  
Scale Up ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
State Variables ◽  
Weather System ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Convective Scale ◽  
Fine Resolution

Abstract This research combines an advanced multiple-Doppler radar synthesis technique with the thermodynamic retrieval method, originally proposed by Gal-Chen, and a moisture/temperature adjustment scheme, and formulates a sequential procedure. The focus is on applying this procedure to improve the model quantitative precipitation nowcasting (QPN) skill in the convective scale up to 3 hours. A series of (observing system simulation experiment) OSSE-type tests and a real case study are conducted to investigate the performance of this algorithm under different conditions. It is shown that by using the retrieved three-dimensional wind, thermodynamic, and microphysical parameters to reinitialize a fine-resolution numerical model, its QPN skill can be significantly improved. Since the Gal-Chen method requires the horizontal average properties of the weather system at each altitude, utilization of in situ radiosonde(s) to obtain this additional information for the retrieval is tested. When sounding data are not available, it is demonstrated that using the model results to replace the role played by observing devices is also a feasible choice. The moisture field is obtained through a simple, but effective, adjusting scheme and is found to be beneficial to the rainfall forecast within the first hour after the reinitialization of the model. Since this algorithm retrieves the unobserved state variables instantaneously from the wind measurements and directly uses them to reinitialize the model, fewer radar data and a shorter model spinup time are needed to correct the rainfall forecasts, in comparison with other data assimilation techniques such as four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) or ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) methods.

scholarly journals The Impact of Mesoscale Environmental Uncertainty on the Prediction of a Tornadic Supercell Storm Using Ensemble Data Assimilation Approach

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nusrat Yussouf ◽  
Jidong Gao ◽  
David J. Stensrud ◽  
Guoqing Ge
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Environmental Variability ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Supercell Storm ◽  
Convective Scale ◽  
Physics Ensemble ◽  
Background Fields ◽  
The Impact

Numerical experiments over the past years indicate that incorporating environmental variability is crucial for successful very short-range convective-scale forecasts. To explore the impact of model physics on the creation of environmental variability and its uncertainty, combined mesoscale-convective scale data assimilation experiments are conducted for a tornadic supercell storm. Two 36-member WRF-ARW model-based mesoscale EAKF experiments are conducted to provide background environments using either fixed or multiple physics schemes across the ensemble members. Two 36-member convective-scale ensembles are initialized using background fields from either fixed physics or multiple physics mesoscale ensemble analyses. Radar observations from four operational WSR-88Ds are assimilated into convective-scale ensembles using ARPS model-based 3DVAR system and ensemble forecasts are launched. Results show that the ensemble with background fields from multiple physics ensemble provides more realistic forecasts of significant tornado parameter, dryline structure, and near surface variables than ensemble from fixed physics background fields. The probabilities of strong low-level updraft helicity from multiple physics ensemble correlate better with observed tornado and rotation tracks than probabilities from fixed physics ensemble. This suggests that incorporating physics diversity across the ensemble can be important to successful probabilistic convective-scale forecast of supercell thunderstorms, which is the main goal of NOAA’s Warn-on-Forecast initiative.

Impact of Configurations of Rapid Intermittent Assimilation of WSR-88D Radar Data for the 8 May 2003 Oklahoma City Tornadic Thunderstorm Case

2007 ◽  
Vol 135 (2) ◽  
pp. 507-525 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ming Hu ◽  
Ming Xue
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Doppler Radar ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Oklahoma City ◽  
Advanced Regional Prediction System ◽  
Initial Stage ◽  
Regional Prediction ◽  
Cloud Temperature ◽  
Adjustment Scheme

Abstract Various configurations of the intermittent data assimilation procedure for Level-II Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler radar data are examined for the analysis and prediction of a tornadic thunderstorm that occurred on 8 May 2003 near Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. Several tornadoes were produced by this thunderstorm, causing extensive damages in the south Oklahoma City area. Within the rapidly cycled assimilation system, the Advanced Regional Prediction System three-dimensional variational data assimilation (ARPS 3DVAR) is employed to analyze conventional and radar radial velocity data, while the ARPS complex cloud analysis procedure is used to analyze cloud and hydrometeor fields and adjust in-cloud temperature and moisture fields based on reflectivity observations and the preliminary analysis of the atmosphere. Forecasts for up to 2.5 h are made from the assimilated initial conditions. Two one-way nested grids at 9- and 3-km grid spacings are employed although the assimilation configuration experiments are conducted for the 3-km grid only while keeping the 9-km grid configuration the same. Data from the Oklahoma City radar are used. Different combinations of the assimilation frequency, in-cloud temperature adjustment schemes, and the length and coverage of the assimilation window are tested, and the results are discussed with respect to the length and evolution stage of the thunderstorm life cycle. It is found that even though the general assimilation method remains the same, the assimilation settings can significantly impact the results of assimilation and the subsequent forecast. For this case, a 1-h-long assimilation window covering the entire initial stage of the storm together with a 10-min spinup period before storm initiation works best. Assimilation frequency and in-cloud temperature adjustment scheme should be set carefully to add suitable amounts of potential energy during assimilation. High assimilation frequency does not necessarily lead to a better result because of the significant adjustment during the initial forecast period. When a short assimilation window is used, covering the later part of the initial stage of storm and using a high assimilation frequency and a temperature adjustment scheme based on latent heat release can quickly build up the storm and produce a reasonable analysis and forecast. The results also show that when the data from a single Doppler radar are assimilated with properly chosen assimilation configurations, the model is able to predict the evolution of the 8 May 2003 Oklahoma City tornadic thunderstorm well for up to 2.5 h. The implications of the choices of assimilation settings for real-time applications are discussed.

An idealized Testbed for Radar Data Assimilation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuefei Zeng ◽  
Tijana Janjic ◽  
Alberto de Lozar ◽  
Ulrich Blahak ◽  
Axel Seifert
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Observation Error ◽  
Supercell Storm ◽  
Highly Nonlinear ◽  
Convective Scale ◽  
Radar Data Assimilation ◽  
Made In

<p> </p> <pre class="moz-quote-pre">Data assimilation on the convective scale uses high-resolution numerical models of the atmosphere that resolve highly nonlinear dynamics and physics. These non-hydrostatic, convection permitting models are in short runs very sensitive to proper initial conditions. <br />However, the estimation of initial conditions is hampered by assumptions made in data assimilation algorithms <br />and in their models of the observation error and model error uncertainty. Within this work, an idealized testbed <br />for Radar Data Assimilation has been developed, which uses Kilometre-scale ENsemble Data Assimilation (KENDA) system <br />of the (Deutscher Wetterdienst) DWD. A series of data assimilation experiments for a supercell storm are conducted. <br />The sensitivity to the configurations of the radar forward operator and specification of the observation error <br />is investigated. Moreover, impacts of different observations (radial wind, reflectivity or both) <br />on the performance of data assimilation cycles and 6-h forecasts are shown, for instance, <br />the preservation of divergence, vorticity and mass of hydrometeors, compared to the nature run is of special interest.</pre> <p> </p>

scholarly journals Assimilation of Cloud-Top Temperature and Radar Observations of an Idealized Splitting Supercell Using an Observing System Simulation Experiment

2015 ◽  
Vol 143 (4) ◽  
pp. 1018-1034 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher A. Kerr ◽  
David J. Stensrud ◽  
Xuguang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Experiment ◽  
Doppler Radar ◽  
System Simulation ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Radar Observations ◽  
Relative Value ◽  
Convective Scale ◽  
Temperature Observations ◽  
Observing System Simulation Experiment ◽  
Cloud Top Temperature

Abstract The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R Series will provide cloud-top observations on the convective scale at roughly the same frequency as Doppler radar observations. To evaluate the potential value of cloud-top temperature observations for data assimilation, an imperfect-model observing system simulation experiment is used. Synthetic cloud-top temperature observations from an idealized splitting supercell created using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model are assimilated along with synthetic radar reflectivity and radial velocity using an ensemble Kalman filter. Observations are assimilated every 5 min for 2.5 h with additive noise used to maintain ensemble spread. Four experiments are conducted to explore the relative value of cloud-top temperature and radar observations. One experiment only assimilates satellite data, another only assimilates radar data, and two more experiments assimilate both radar and satellite observations, but with the observation types assimilated in different order. Results show a rather weak correlation between cloud-top temperature and horizontal winds, whereas larger correlations are found between cloud-top temperature and microphysics variables. However, the assimilation of cloud-top temperature data alone produces a supercell storm in the ensemble, although the resulting ensemble has much larger spread compared to the ensembles of radar inclusive experiments. The addition of radar observations greatly improves the storm structure and reduces the overprediction of storm extent. Results further show that assimilating cloud-top temperature observations in addition to radar data does not lead to an improved forecast. However, assimilating cloud-top temperature can produce reasonable forecasts for areas lacking radar coverage.

Doppler Radar Analysis of the Eyewall Replacement Cycle of Hurricane Matthew (2016) in Vertical Wind Shear

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ting-Yu Cha ◽  
Michael M. Bell ◽  
Alexander J. DesRosiers
Keyword(s):  
Wind Shear ◽  
Doppler Radar ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Secondary Circulation ◽  
Vertical Wind ◽  
High Temporal Resolution ◽  
Radar Observations ◽  
Eyewall Replacement Cycle ◽  
Replacement Cycle

AbstractHurricane Matthew (2016) was observed by ground-based polarimetric radars in Miami (KAMX), Melbourne (KMLB), and Jacksonville (KJAX) and a NOAA P3 airborne tail Doppler radar near the coast of the southeastern United States during an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). The radar observations indicate that Matthew’s primary eyewall was replaced with a weaker outer eyewall, but unlike a classic ERC, Matthew did not reintensify after the inner eyewall disappeared. Triple Doppler analysis was calculated from the NOAA P3 airborne fore and aft radar scanning combined with the KAMX radar data during the period of secondary eyewall intensification and inner eyewall weakening from 19 UTC 6 October to 00 UTC 7 October. Four flight passes of the P3 aircraft show the evolution of the reflectivity, tangential winds, and secondary circulation as the outer eyewall became well-established. Further evolution of the ERC is analyzed from the ground-based single Doppler radar observations for 35 hours with high temporal resolution at a 5-minute interval from 19 UTC 6 October to 00 UTC 8 October using the Generalized Velocity Track Display (GVTD) technique. The single-Doppler analyses indicate that the inner eyewall decayed a few hours after the P3 flight, while the outer eyewall contracted but did not reintensify and the asymmetries increased episodically. The analysis suggests that the ERC process was influenced by a complex combination of environmental vertical wind shear, an evolving axisymmetric secondary circulation, and an asymmetric vortex Rossby wave damping mechanism that promoted vortex resiliency despite increasing shear.

scholarly journals A Heuristic Approach for Precipitation Data Assimilation: Characterization Using OSSEs

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (9) ◽  
pp. 3445-3466 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrés A. Pérez Hortal ◽  
Isztar Zawadzki ◽  
M. K. Yau
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Grid Point ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Ensemble Member ◽  
Absolute Difference ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
State Variables ◽  
Vertical Column ◽  
A New Technique

Abstract We introduce a new technique for the assimilation of precipitation observations, the localized ensemble mosaic assimilation (LEMA). The method constructs an analysis by selecting, for each vertical column in the model, the ensemble member with precipitation at the ground that is locally closest to the observed values. The proximity between the modeled and observed precipitation is determined by the mean absolute difference of precipitation intensity, converted to reflectivity and measured over a spatiotemporal window centered at each grid point of the model. The underlying hypothesis of the approach is that the ensemble members that are locally closer to the observed precipitation are more probable to be closer to the “truth” in the state variables than the other members. The initial conditions for the new forecast are obtained by nudging the background states toward the mosaic of the closest ensemble members (analysis) over a 30 min time interval, reducing the impacts of the imbalances at the boundaries between the different selected members. The potential of the method is studied using observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) employing a small ensemble of 20 members. The ensemble is produced by the WRF Model, run at a horizontal grid spacing of 20 km. The experiments lend support to the validity of the hypothesis and allow the determination of the optimal parameters for the approach. In the context of OSSE, this new data assimilation technique is able to produce forecasts with considerable and long-lived error reductions in the fields of precipitation, temperature, humidity, and wind.

scholarly journals A radar reflectivity operator with ice-phase hydrometeors for variational data assimilation (version 1.0) and its evaluation with real radar data

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 4031-4051 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shizhang Wang ◽  
Zhiquan Liu
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Poor Quality ◽  
Variational Data Assimilation ◽  
Radar Reflectivity ◽  
Background Error ◽  
Background Fields ◽  
Ice Phase

Abstract. A reflectivity forward operator and its associated tangent linear and adjoint operators (together named RadarVar) were developed for variational data assimilation (DA). RadarVar can analyze both rainwater and ice-phase species (snow and graupel) by directly assimilating radar reflectivity observations. The results of three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) DA experiments with a 3 km grid mesh setting of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model showed that RadarVar was effective at producing an analysis of reflectivity pattern and intensity similar to the observed data. Two to three outer loops with 50–100 iterations in each loop were needed to obtain a converged 3-D analysis of reflectivity, rainwater, snow, and graupel, including the melting layers with mixed-phase hydrometeors. It is shown that the deficiencies in the analysis using this operator, caused by the poor quality of the background fields and the use of the static background error covariance, can be partially resolved by using radar-retrieved hydrometeors in a preprocessing step and tuning the spatial correlation length scales of the background errors. The direct radar reflectivity assimilation using RadarVar also improved the short-term (2–5 h) precipitation forecasts compared to those of the experiment without DA.

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