Decadal Prediction in the Pacific Region

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (11) ◽  
pp. 2959-2973 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerald A. Meehl ◽  
Aixue Hu ◽  
Claudia Tebaldi
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
North America ◽  
First Century ◽  
Pacific Region ◽  
Decadal Prediction ◽  
Model Reference ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Perfect Model ◽  
Reference Simulation ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract A “perfect model” configuration with a global coupled climate model 30-member ensemble is used to address decadal prediction of Pacific SSTs. All model data are low-pass filtered to focus on the low-frequency decadal component. The first three EOFs in the twentieth-century simulation, representing nearly 80% of the total variance, are used as the basis for early twenty-first-century predictions. The first two EOFs represent the forced trend and the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), respectively, as noted in previous studies, and the third has elements of both trend and IPO patterns. The perfect model reference simulation, the target for the prediction, is taken as the experiment that ran continuously from the twentieth to twenty-first century using anthropogenic and natural forcings for the twentieth century and the A1B scenario for the twenty-first century. The other 29 members use a perturbation in the atmosphere at year 2000 and are run until 2061. Since the IPO has been recognized as a dominant contributor to decadal variability in the Pacific, information late in the twentieth century and early in the twenty-first century is used to select a subset of ensemble members that are more skillful in tracking the time evolution of the IPO (EOF2) in relation to a notional start date of 2010. Predictions for the 19-yr period centered on the year 2020 use that subset of ensemble members to construct Pacific SST patterns based on the predicted evolution of the first three EOFs. Compared to the perfect model reference simulation, the predictions show some skill for Pacific SST predictions with anomaly pattern correlations greater than +0.5. An application of the Pacific SST prediction is made to precipitation over North America and Australia. Even though there are additional far-field influences on Pacific SSTs and North American and Australian precipitation involving the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) in the Atlantic, and Indian Ocean and South Asian monsoon variability, there is qualitative skill for the pattern of predicted precipitation over North America and Australia using predicted Pacific SSTs. This exercise shows that, in the presence of a large forced trend like that in the large ensemble, much of Pacific region decadal predictability about 20 years into the future arises from increasing greenhouse gases.

Peronospora belbahrii (basil downy mildew).

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jo Anne Crouch
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
North America ◽  
South America ◽  
Downy Mildew ◽  
Geographic Range ◽  
First Century ◽  
Crop Losses ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract Basil downy mildew was first identified from Uganda during 1932 and 1937, resulting in significant crop losses (Hansford, 1933; Hansford, 1939). Following these original outbreaks, the disease was reported sporadically in Africa during the twentieth century: in Tanzania in 1960 (Riley, 1960), then again in Benin during 1998 (Gumedzoe et al., 1998). The disease was first identified outside of Africa in 2001, when it was reported from Switzerland (Belbahri et al., 2005). Unlike the intermittent African outbreaks of the twentieth century, the twenty-first century outbreaks of basil downy mildew are persistent, and the geographic range of P. belbahrii continues to expand. Since 2001, P. belbahrii has spread throughout Europe, North America, Asia, and parts of Africa, Central and South America, and the Caribbean. Losses incurred due to basil downy mildew in the USA alone are estimated to reach tens of millions of dollars (Wyenandt et al., 2015).

Culture Chronology and Change

2021 ◽  
pp. 13-28
Author(s):  
R. Lee Lyman
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
North America ◽  
North American ◽  
First Century ◽  
American People ◽  
Chronological Order ◽  
Native North American ◽  
History Of ◽  
Chronological Sequence ◽  
Twenty First Century

Archaeology emerged as part of the general discipline of anthropology in North America, the overall focus of which for the first five or six decades of the twentieth century was to write the history of the culture of each group of native North American people. The goal of writing a culture’s history could only be accomplished by placing artifacts in a chronological sequence, which demanded a chronometer. It was not always possible to refer to stratigraphic superposition, so various techniques of seriation—arranging artifacts based on their formal attributes in what was believed to be a chronological order—were invented and used. The results of the seriation techniques and stratigraphic superposition studies were initially summarized in tables of artifact frequencies but eventually were graphed in several ways. Interest in culture chronology and change among North American archaeologists has extended throughout the twentieth century and into the twenty-first century.

scholarly journals A Model Study of Heat Waves over North America: Meteorological Aspects and Projections for the Twenty-First Century

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (14) ◽  
pp. 4761-4784 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ngar-Cheung Lau ◽  
Mary Jo Nath
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
North America ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
First Century ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The characteristics of summertime heat waves in North America are examined using reanalysis data and simulations by two general circulation models with horizontal resolution of 50 and 200 km. Several “key regions” with spatially coherent and high amplitude fluctuations in daily surface air temperature are identified. The typical synoptic features accompanying warm episodes in these regions are described. The averaged intensity, duration, and frequency of occurrence of the heat waves in various key regions, as simulated in the two models for twentieth-century climate, are in general agreement with the results based on reanalysis data. The impact of climate change on the heat wave characteristics in various key regions is assessed by contrasting model runs based on a scenario for the twenty-first century with those for the twentieth century. Both models indicate considerable increases in the duration and frequency of heat wave episodes, and in number of heat wave days per year, during the twenty-first century. The duration and frequency statistics of the heat waves in the mid-twenty-first century, as generated by the model with 50-km resolution, can be reproduced by adding the projected warming trend to the daily temperature data for the late twentieth century, and then recomputing these statistics. The detailed evolution of the averaged intensity, duration, and frequency of the heat waves through individual decades of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, as simulated and projected by the model with 200-km resolution, indicates that the upward trend in these heat wave measures should become apparent in the early decades of the twenty-first century.

The Rise and Return of the Indo-Pacific

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy Doyle ◽  
Dennis Rumley
Keyword(s):  
Common Ground ◽  
First Century ◽  
Regional Security ◽  
Pacific Region ◽  
Nation States ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Hegemony ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Under Construction ◽  
Political Realities

In the twenty-first century, the Indo-Pacific region has become the new centre of the world. The concept of the ‘Indo-Pacific’’, though still under construction, is a potentially pivotal site, where various institutions and intellectuals of statecraft are seeking common ground on which to anchor new regional coalitions, alliances, and allies to better serve their respective national agendas. This book explores the Indo-Pacific as an ambiguous and hotly contested regional security construction. It critically examines the major drivers behind the revival of classical geopolitical concepts and their deployment through different national lenses. The book also analyses the presence of India and the US in the Indo-Pacific, and the manner in which China has reacted to their positions in the Indo-Pacific to date. It suggests that national constructions of the Indo-Pacific region are more informed by domestic political realities, anti-Chinese bigotries, distinctive properties of twenty-first century US hegemony, and narrow nation-statist sentiments rather than genuine pan-regional aspirations. The book argues that the spouting of contested depictions of the Indo-Pacific region depend on the fixed geostrategic lenses of nation-states, but what is also important is the re-emergence of older ideas—a classical conceptual revival—based on early to mid-twentieth century geopolitical ideas in many of these countries. The book deliberately raises the issue of the sea and constructions of ‘nature’, as these symbols are indispensable parts of many of these Indo-Pacific regional narratives.

scholarly journals Corporate headquarters in the twenty-first century: an organization design perspective

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sven Kunisch ◽  
Markus Menz ◽  
David Collis
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Organization Design ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
First Century ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Corporate Headquarters ◽  
Special Collection ◽  
Design Perspective ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract The corporate headquarters (CHQ) of the multi-business enterprise, which emerged as the dominant organizational form for the conduct of business in the twentieth century, has attracted considerable scholarly attention. As the business environment undergoes a fundamental transition in the twenty-first century, we believe that understanding the evolving role of the CHQ from an organization design perspective will offer unique insights into the nature of business activity in the future. The purpose of this article, in keeping with the theme of the Journal of Organization Design Special Collection, is thus to invigorate research into the CHQ. We begin by explicating four canonical questions related to the design of the CHQ. We then survey fundamental changes in the business environment occurring in the twenty-first century, and discuss their potential implications for CHQ design. When suitable here we also refer to the contributions published in our Special Collection. Finally, we put forward recommendations for advancements and new directions for future research to foster a deeper and broader understanding of the topic. We believe that we are on the cusp of a change in the CHQ as radical as that which saw its initial emergence in the late nineteenth/early twentieth century. Exactly what form that change will take remains for practitioners and researchers to inform.

‘A Heap of Broken Images’? Reviving Austro-German Debates over Musical Meaning, 1900–36

2013 ◽  
Vol 138 (1) ◽  
pp. 129-174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew Pritchard
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Educational Theory ◽  
First Century ◽  
Critical Hermeneutics ◽  
Musical Meaning ◽  
Force And Motion ◽  
The Status ◽  
Musical Interpretation ◽  
Twenty First Century

AbstractThis article examines a range of writings on the status of musical interpretation in Austria and Germany during the early decades of the twentieth century, and argues their relevance to current debates. While the division outlined by recent research between popular-critical hermeneutics and analytical ‘energetics’ at this time remains important, hitherto neglected contemporary reflections by Paul Bekker and Kurt Westphal demonstrate that the success of energetics was not due to any straightforward intellectual victory. Rather, the images of force and motion promoted by 1920s analysis were carried by historical currents in the philosophy, educational theory and arts of the time, revealing a culturally situated source for twenty-first-century analysis's preoccupations with motion and embodiment. The cultural relativization of such images may serve as a retrospective counteraction to the analytical rationalizing processes that culminated specifically in Heinrich Schenker's later work, and more generally in the privileging of graphic and notational imagery over poetic paraphrase.

Defining the Center—Finding the Boundaries: The Challenge of Re-Visioning the Church in North America for the Twenty-First Century

1994 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 317-337
Author(s):  
Craig Van Gelder
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
North American ◽  
American Culture ◽  
First Century ◽  
New Paradigm ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Mission Field ◽  
The Church

It is becoming increasingly clear that we are experiencing a shift in North American culture that requires the church to think of North America as mission field. The thesis of this article is that the church will need to develop a new paradigm of mission to accomplish this. This article identifies 18 issues which such a paradigm of mission will need to address. These issues are discussed in terms of three aspects: (1) the context in which we live, (2) the gospel we seek to proclaim, and (3) the church which seeks to proclaim this gospel.

scholarly journals Evaluation of flood damage reduction throughout Japan from adaptation measures taken under a range of emissions mitigation scenarios

2021 ◽  
Vol 165 (3-4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tao Yamamoto ◽  
So Kazama ◽  
Yoshiya Touge ◽  
Hayata Yanagihara ◽  
Tsuyoshi Tada ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
First Century ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Damage Cost ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Inundation Depth ◽  
Late Twentieth ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Late Twentieth Century

AbstractThis study aimed to evaluate the impact of climate change on flood damage and the effects of mitigation measures and combinations of multiple adaptation measures in reducing flood damage. The inundation depth was calculated using a two-dimensional unsteady flow model. The flood damage cost was estimated from the unit evaluation value set for each land use and prefectures and the calculated inundation depth distribution. To estimate the flood damage in the near future and the late twenty-first century, five global climate models were used. These models provided daily precipitation, and the change of the extreme precipitation was calculated. In addition to the assessment of the impacts of climate change, certain adaptation measures (land-use control, piloti building, and improvement of flood control level) were discussed, and their effects on flood damage cost reduction were evaluated. In the case of the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario, the damage cost in the late twenty-first century will increase to 57% of that in the late twentieth century. However, if mitigation measures were to be undertaken according to RCP2.6 standards, the increase of the flood damage cost will stop, and the increase of the flood damage cost will be 28% of that in the late twentieth century. By implementing adaptation measures in combination rather than individually, it is possible to keep the damage cost in the future period even below that in the late twentieth century. By implementing both mitigation and adaptation measures, it is possible to reduce the flood damage cost in the late twenty-first century to 69% of that in the late twentieth century.

Out of the box, onto the web: Digitizing images in the Tuzin Archive for Melanesian Anthropology

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 251-268 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristela Garcia-Spitz ◽  
Kathryn Creely
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
San Diego ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
First Century ◽  
University Of California ◽  
Online Access ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
The University ◽  
Archival Practices ◽  
The Web

How are ethnographic photographs from the twentieth century accessed and represented in the twenty-first century? This report from the Tuzin Archive for Melanesian Anthropology at the University of California San Diego Library provides an overview of the photographic materials, arrangements and types of documentation in the archive, followed by summaries of specific digitization projects of the photographs from physician Sylvester Lambert and anthropologists Roger Keesing and Harold Scheffler, among others. Through the process of digitization and online access, ethnographic photographs are transformed and may be discovered and contextualized in new ways. Utilizing new technologies and forming broad collaborations, these digitization projects incorporate both anthropological and archival practices and also raise ethical questions. This is an in-depth look at what is digitized and how it is described to re/create meaning and context and to bring new life to these images.

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