scholarly journals Opposite Annular Responses of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres to Indian Ocean Warming

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (13) ◽  
pp. 3720-3738 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuanglin Li ◽  
Judith Perlwitz ◽  
Martin P. Hoerling ◽  
Xiaoting Chen
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Ocean Warming ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Annular Mode ◽  
Indian Ocean Warming ◽  
The Indian Ocean

Abstract Atmospheric circulation changes during boreal winter of the second half of the twentieth century exhibit a trend toward the positive polarity of both the Northern Hemisphere annular mode (NAM) and the Southern Hemisphere annular mode (SAM). This has occurred in concert with other trends in the climate system, most notably a warming of the Indian Ocean. This study explores whether the tropical Indian Ocean warming played a role in forcing these annular trends. Five different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) are forced with an idealized, transient warming of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA); the results of this indicate that the warming contributed to the annular trend in the NH but offset the annular trend in SH. The latter result implies that the Indian Ocean warming may have partly cancelled the influence of the stratospheric ozone depletion over the southern polar area, which itself forced a trend toward the positive phase of the SAM. Diagnosis of the physical mechanisms for the annular responses indicates that the direct impact of the diabatic heating induced by the Indian Ocean warming does not account for the annular response in the extratropics. Instead, interactions between the forced stationary wave anomalies and transient eddies is key for the formation of annular structures.

scholarly journals A New Type of the Indian Ocean Dipole since the Mid-1970s

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 959-972 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Du ◽  
Wenju Cai ◽  
Yanling Wu
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Ocean Warming ◽  
Peak Time ◽  
Austral Winter ◽  
Indian Ocean Warming ◽  
New Type ◽  
The Indian Ocean

Abstract The tropical Indian Ocean dipole/zonal mode (IOD) is phase locked with the austral winter and spring seasons. This study describes three types of the IOD in terms of their peak time and duration. In particular, the authors focus on a new type that develops in May–June and matures in July–August, which is distinctively different from the canonical IOD, which may develop later and peak in September–November or persist from June to November. Such “unseasonable” IOD events are only observed since the mid-1970s, a period after which the tropical Indian Ocean has a closer relationship with the Pacific Ocean. The unseasonable IOD is an intrinsic mode of the Indian Ocean and occurs without an ensuing El Niño. A change in winds along the equator is identified as a major forcing. The wind change is in turn related to a weakening Walker circulation in the Indian Ocean sector in austral winter, which is in part forced by the rapid Indian Ocean warming. Thus, although the occurrence of the unseasonable IOD may be partially influenced by oceanic variability, the authors’ results suggest an influence from the Indian Ocean warming. This suggestion, however, awaits further investigation using fully coupled climate models.

scholarly journals Importance of seasonally resolved oceanic emissions for bromoform delivery from the tropical Indian Ocean and west Pacific to the stratosphere

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (16) ◽  
pp. 11973-11990 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alina Fiehn ◽  
Birgit Quack ◽  
Irene Stemmler ◽  
Franziska Ziska ◽  
Kirstin Krüger
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
The West ◽  
West Pacific ◽  
Mixing Ratios ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Oceanic Emissions

Abstract. Oceanic very short-lived substances (VSLSs), such as bromoform (CHBr3), contribute to stratospheric halogen loading and, thus, to ozone depletion. However, the amount, timing, and region of bromine delivery to the stratosphere through one of the main entrance gates, the Indian summer monsoon circulation, are still uncertain. In this study, we created two bromoform emission inventories with monthly resolution for the tropical Indian Ocean and west Pacific based on new in situ bromoform measurements and novel ocean biogeochemistry modeling. The mass transport and atmospheric mixing ratios of bromoform were modeled for the year 2014 with the particle dispersion model FLEXPART driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis. We compare results between two emission scenarios: (1) monthly averaged and (2) annually averaged emissions. Both simulations reproduce the atmospheric distribution of bromoform from ship- and aircraft-based observations in the boundary layer and upper troposphere above the Indian Ocean reasonably well. Using monthly resolved emissions, the main oceanic source regions for the stratosphere include the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal in boreal summer and the tropical west Pacific Ocean in boreal winter. The main stratospheric injection in boreal summer occurs over the southern tip of India associated with the high local oceanic sources and strong convection of the summer monsoon. In boreal winter more bromoform is entrained over the west Pacific than over the Indian Ocean. The annually averaged stratospheric injection of bromoform is in the same range whether using monthly averaged or annually averaged emissions in our Lagrangian calculations. However, monthly averaged emissions result in the highest mixing ratios within the Asian monsoon anticyclone in boreal summer and above the central Indian Ocean in boreal winter, while annually averaged emissions display a maximum above the west Indian Ocean in boreal spring. In the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone bromoform atmospheric mixing ratios vary by up to 50 % between using monthly averaged and annually averaged oceanic emissions. Our results underline that the seasonal and regional stratospheric bromine injection from the tropical Indian Ocean and west Pacific critically depend on the seasonality and spatial distribution of the VSLS emissions.

scholarly journals Ocean Surface Impacts on the Seasonal-Mean Precipitation over the Tropical Indian Ocean

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (10) ◽  
pp. 3566-3582 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mingyue Chen ◽  
Wanqiu Wang ◽  
Arun Kumar ◽  
Hui Wang ◽  
Bhaskar Jha
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Prediction Skill ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Atmospheric Variability ◽  
Tropical Eastern Pacific ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole Mode ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Sst Forcing ◽  
The Indian Ocean

Abstract This study analyzes factors affecting the predictability of seasonal-mean precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean. The analysis focuses on the contributions from the local sea surface temperature (SST) forcing in the Indian Ocean, the remote SST forcing related to ENSO in the tropical eastern Pacific, and the role of local air–sea coupling. To understand the impacts of the individual factors, the prediction skill over the tropical Indian Ocean for four model simulations, but with different treatments for the ocean, are compared. The seasonality in precipitation skill, the local precipitation–SST relationship, and prediction skill related to Indian Ocean dipole mode (IODM) are examined. It is found that the importance of the accuracy of local SST and the presence of local air–sea coupling in the Indian Ocean has a strong seasonal dependence. Accurate local SSTs are important during the boreal fall season, whereas the local air–sea coupling is important during the boreal spring. The precipitation skill over the Indian Ocean during boreal winter is primarily from ENSO. However, ENSO impacts are better realized with the inclusion of an interactive ocean. For all four seasons, the simulation without the interannual variations of local SST in the Indian Ocean shows the least precipitation skill and a much weaker seasonality. It is also found that, for the simulation where the global SSTs are relaxed to the observations and hence maintain some level of active air–sea coupling, the observed seasonal cycle of precipitation–SST relationship is reproduced reasonably well. In addition, the analysis also shows that simulations with accurate SST forcing display high precipitation skill during strong IODM events, indicating that IODM SST acts as a forcing for the atmospheric variability.

scholarly journals Water Mass Export from Drake Passage to the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Oceans: A Lagrangian Model Analysis

2005 ◽  
Vol 35 (7) ◽  
pp. 1206-1222 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yann Friocourt ◽  
Sybren Drijfhout ◽  
Bruno Blanke ◽  
Sabrina Speich
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Drake Passage ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Lagrangian Model ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Western Boundary ◽  
Intermediate Water ◽  
Boundary Current ◽  
The Indian Ocean

Abstract The northward export of intermediate water from Drake Passage is investigated in two global ocean general circulation models (GCMs) by means of quantitative particle tracing diagnostics. This study shows that a total of about 23 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) is exported from Drake Passage to the equator. The Atlantic and Pacific Oceans are the main catchment basins with 7 and 15 Sv, respectively. Only 1–2 Sv of the water exported to the Atlantic equator follow the direct cold route from Drake Passage without entering the Indian Ocean. The remainder loops first into the Indian Ocean subtropical gyre and flows eventually into the Atlantic Ocean by Agulhas leakage. The authors assess the robustness of a theory that relates the export from Drake Passage to the equator to the wind stress over the Southern Ocean. Our GCM results are in reasonable agreement with the theory that predicts the total export. However, the theory cannot be applied to individual basins because of interocean exchanges through the “supergyre” mechanism and other nonlinear processes such as the Agulhas rings. The export of water from Drake Passage starts mainly as an Ekman flow just northward of the latitude band of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current south of South America. Waters quickly subduct and are transferred to the ocean interior as they travel equatorward. They flow along the eastern boundaries in the Sverdrup interior and cross the southern basins northwestward to reach the equator within the western boundary current systems.

Projected Changes in Mean and Extreme Precipitation in Africa under Global Warming. Part II: East Africa

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (14) ◽  
pp. 3718-3733 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mxolisi E. Shongwe ◽  
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh ◽  
Bart van den Hurk ◽  
Maarten van Aalst
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
East Africa ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Eastern Hemisphere ◽  
Short Rains

Abstract Probable changes in mean and extreme precipitation in East Africa are estimated from general circulation models (GCMs) prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Bayesian statistics are used to derive the relative weights assigned to each member in the multimodel ensemble. There is substantial evidence in support of a positive shift of the whole rainfall distribution in East Africa during the wet seasons. The models give indications for an increase in mean precipitation rates and intensity of high rainfall events but for less severe droughts. Upward precipitation trends are projected from early this (twenty first) century. As in the observations, a statistically significant link between sea surface temperature gradients in the tropical Indian Ocean and short rains (October–December) in East Africa is simulated in the GCMs. Furthermore, most models project a differential warming of the Indian Ocean during boreal autumn. This is favorable for an increase in the probability of positive Indian Ocean zonal mode events, which have been associated with anomalously strong short rains in East Africa. On top of the general increase in rainfall in the tropics due to thermodynamic effects, a change in the structure of the Eastern Hemisphere Walker circulation is consistent with an increase in East Africa precipitation relative to other regions within the same latitudinal belt. A notable feature of this change is a weakening of the climatological subsidence over eastern Kenya. East Africa is shown to be a region in which a coherent projection of future precipitation change can be made, supported by physical arguments. Although the rate of change is still uncertain, almost all results point to a wetter climate with more intense wet seasons and less severe droughts.

Transition of the ENSO teleconnection to the Euro-Atlantic region from early to late winter: Role of the Indian Ocean

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Adnan Abid ◽  
Fred Kucharski ◽  
Franco Molteni ◽  
In-Sik Kang ◽  
Adrian Tompkins ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Late Winter ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Early Winter ◽  
Atlantic Region ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Circulation Anomalies

<p>El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have a weak influence on the seasonal mean Euro-Atlantic circulation anomalies during the boreal winter (Dec-Feb) season. Therefore, monthly ENSO teleconnections to Euro-Atlantic region were studied during the boreal winter season for the period 1981-2015 using reanalysis and hindcast dataset. It is shown that the ENSO-forced signal to the Euro-Atlantic circulation anomalies does not persist throughout the boreal winter season. During earlier winter, a positive ENSO phase strongly enforces rainfall dipole anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean, with increased rainfall over the western tropical Indian Ocean, and reduced in the eastern tropical Indian ocean.  This Indian Ocean rainfall dipole weakens in late winter. During early winter, the Indian Ocean rainfall dipole modifies the subtropical South Asian jet (SAJET) which forces a wavenumber-3 response projecting spatially onto the positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern. On contrary, during late winter, the response in the Euro-Atlantic sector is dominated by the well-known ENSO wavetrain from the tropical Pacific region, involving Pacific North American (PNA) pattern anomalies that project spatially on the negative phase of the NAO. Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) numerical experiments forced with an Indian Ocean heating dipole anomaly support the hypothesis that the Indian Ocean modulates the SAJET that enforces the Rossby wave propagation to the Euro-Atlantic region in early winter. Moreover, the ECMWF-SEAS5 hindcast dataset reproduces the observed ENSO-forced inter-basin tropical teleconnections transition from early to late winter and their response to the Euro-Atlantic circulation anomalies quite well. Therefore, it is important to understand the tropical inter-basin transition, which may lead to improve the sub-seasonal to seasonal variability and predictability of the Euro-Atlantic circulation anomalies. </p>

Indo-Pacific climate during the decaying phase of the 2015/16 El Niño: role of southeast tropical Indian Ocean warming

2017 ◽  
Vol 50 (11-12) ◽  
pp. 4707-4719 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zesheng Chen ◽  
Yan Du ◽  
Zhiping Wen ◽  
Renguang Wu ◽  
Chunzai Wang
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Ocean Warming ◽  
Indian Ocean Warming

scholarly journals Explorations of the Annual Mean Heat Budget of the Tropical Indian Ocean. Part I: Studies with an Idealized Model

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (13) ◽  
pp. 3210-3228 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Stuart Godfrey ◽  
Rui-Jin Hu ◽  
Andreas Schiller ◽  
R. Fiedler
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Lower Limit ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Heat Budget ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Ekman Transport ◽  
Western Boundary ◽  
Northern Boundary

Abstract Annual mean net heat fluxes from ocean general circulation models (OGCMs) are systematically too low in the tropical Indian Ocean, compared to observations. In the models, only some of the geostrophic inflow replacing southward Ekman outflow is colder than the minimum sea surface temperature (MINSST). Observed heat fluxes imply that much more inflow is colder than MINSST. Since inflow below MINSST can only join the surface Ekman transport after diathermal warming, the OGCMs must underestimate diathermal effects. A crude analog of the annual mean Indian Ocean heat budget was generated, using a rectangular box model with a deep “Indo–Pacific” gap at 7°–10°S in its eastern side. Wind stress was zonal and proportional to the Coriolis parameter, so Ekman transport was spatially constant and equaled Sverdrup transport. For three experiments, zonally integrated Ekman transport was steady and southward at 10 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1). In steady state, a 10 Sv “Indonesian Throughflow” fed a northward western boundary current of 10 Sv, which turned eastward along the northern boundary at 10°N to feed the southward Ekman transport. Most diathermal mixing occurred within an intense eddy in the northwest corner. Some of the geostrophic inflow was at temperatures colder than MINSST (found at the northeast corner of the eddy); it must warm to MINSST via diathermal mixing. Northern boundary upwelling exceeded the 10-Sv Ekman transport. The excess warms as it recirculates around the eddy, apparently supplying the heat to warm inflow below MINSST. In an experiment using the “flux-corrected transport” (FCT) scheme, diathermal mixing occurred in the strongly sheared currents around the eddy. However the Richardson number never became low enough to drive strong diathermal mixing, perhaps because (like that of other published models) the present model’s vertical resolution was too coarse. In three experiments, the dominant mixing was caused by horizontal diffusion, spurious convective overturn, and numerical mixing invoked by the FCT scheme, respectively. All three mixing mechanisms are physically suspect; such model problems (if widespread) must be resolved before the mismatch between observed and modeled heat fluxes can be addressed. However, the fact that the density profile at the western boundary must be hydrostatically stable places a lower limit on the area-integrated heat fluxes. Results from the three main experiments—and from many published OGCMs—are quite close to this lower limit.

scholarly journals Predictions of Indian Ocean SST Indices with a Simple Statistical Model: A Null Hypothesis

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (18) ◽  
pp. 4930-4938 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dietmar Dommenget ◽  
Malte Jansen
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Statistical Model ◽  
General Circulation Model ◽  
Null Hypothesis ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Model Studies ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
The Indian Ocean

Abstract Several recent general circulation model studies discuss the predictability of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode, suggesting that it is predictable because of coupled ocean–atmosphere interactions in the Indian Ocean. However, it is not clear from these studies how much of the predictability is due to the response to El Niño. It is shown in this note that a simple statistical model that treats the Indian Ocean as a red noise process forced by tropical Pacific SST shows forecast skills comparable to those of recent general circulation model studies. The results also indicate that some of the eastern tropical Indian Ocean SST predictability in recent studies may indeed be beyond the skill of the simple model proposed in this note, indicating that dynamics in the Indian Ocean may have caused this improved predictability in this region. The model further indicates that the IOD index may be the least predictable index of Indian Ocean SST variability. The model is proposed as a null hypothesis for Indian Ocean SST predictions.

Tropical Indian Ocean Basin Warming and East Asian Summer Monsoon: A Multiple AGCM Study

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (22) ◽  
pp. 6080-6088 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuanglin Li ◽  
Jian Lu ◽  
Gang Huang ◽  
Kaiming Hu
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Ocean Warming ◽  
Indian Ocean Warming ◽  
Asian Summer

Abstract A basin-scale warming is the leading mode of tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) variability on interannual time scales, and it is also the prominent feature of the interdecadal SST trend in recent decades. The influence of the warming on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is investigated through ensemble experiments of several atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The results from five AGCMs consistently suggest that near the surface, the Indian Ocean warming forces an anticyclonic anomaly over the subtropical western Pacific, intensifying the southwesterly winds to East China; and in the upper troposphere, it forces a Gill-type response with the intensified South Asian high, both favoring the enhancement of the EASM. These processes are argued to contribute to the stronger EASM during the summer following the peak of El Niño than monsoons in other years. These model results also suggest that tropical Indian Ocean warming may not have a causal relationship to the synchronous weakening of EASM on interdecadal time scales.

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