scholarly journals Interdecadal Modulation of the Impact of ENSO on Precipitation and Temperature over the United States

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (13) ◽  
pp. 3639-3656 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kingtse C. Mo

Abstract Data from observations and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) twentieth-century climate change model [phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3)] simulations were analyzed to examine the decadal changes of the impact of ENSO on air temperature Tair and precipitation P over the United States. The comparison of composites for the early period (1915–60) and the recent period (1962–2006) indicates that cooling (warming) over the south and warming (cooling) over the north during ENSO warm (cold) winters have been weakening. The ENSO influence on winter P over the Southwest is strengthening, while the impact on P over the Ohio Valley is weakening for the recent decades. These differences are not due to the long-term trends in Tair or P; they are attributed to the occurrence of the central Pacific (CPAC) ENSO events in the recent years. The CPAC ENSO differs from the canonical eastern Pacific (EPAC) ENSO. The EPAC ENSO has a sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) maximum in the eastern Pacific. Enhanced convection extends from the date line to the eastern Pacific, with negative anomalies in the western Pacific. The atmospheric responses resemble a tropical Northern Hemisphere pattern. The wave train is consistent with the north–south Tair contrast over North America during the EPAC ENSO winters. The CPAC ENSO has enhanced convection in the central Pacific. The atmospheric responses show a Pacific–North American pattern. It is consistent with west–east contrast in Tair and more rainfall over the Southwest during the CPAC ENSO winters.

Author(s):  
Earl H. Fry

This article examines the ebb and flow of the Quebec government’s economic and commercial relations with the United States in the period 1994–2017. The topic demonstrates the impact of three major forces on Quebec’s economic and commercial ties with the US: (1) the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) which became operational in 1994 and was fully implemented over a 15-year period; (2) the onerous security policies put in place by the US government in the decade following the horrific events of 11 September 2001; and (3) changing economic circumstances in the United States ranging from robust growth to the worst recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The article also indicates that the Quebec government continues to sponsor a wide range of activities in the United States, often more elaborate and extensive than comparable activities pursued by many nation-states with representation in the US. 1 1 Stéphane Paquin, ‘Quebec-U.S. Relations: The Big Picture’, American Review of Canadian Studies 46, no. 2 (2016): 149–61.


2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (11) ◽  
pp. 2664-2679 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xianan Jiang ◽  
Ngar-Cheung Lau

Abstract Based on a recently released, high-resolution reanalysis dataset for the North American region, the intraseasonal variability (ISV; with a time scale of about 20 days) of the North American monsoon (NAM) is examined. The rainfall signals associated with this phenomenon first emerge near the Gulf of Mexico and eastern Pacific at about 20°N. They subsequently migrate to the southwestern United States along the slope of the Sierra Madre Occidental. The rainfall quickly dissipates upon arrival at the desert region of Arizona and New Mexico (AZNM). The enhanced rainfall over AZNM is accompanied by strong southeasterly low-level flow along the Gulf of California. This pattern bears strong resemblance to the circulation related to “gulf surge” events, as documented by many studies. The southeasterly flow is associated with an anomalous low vortex over the subtropical eastern Pacific Ocean off California, and a midlatitude anticyclone over the central United States in the lower troposphere. This flow pattern is in broad agreement with that favoring the “wet surges” over the southwestern United States. It is further demonstrated that the aforementioned low-level circulations associated with ISV of the NAM are part of a prominent trans-Pacific wave train extending from the western North Pacific (WNP) to the Eastern Pacific/North America along a “great circle” path. The circulation anomalies along the axis of this wave train exhibit a barotropic vertical structure over most regions outside of the WNP, and a baroclinic structure over the WNP, thus suggesting the important role of convective activities over the WNP in sustaining this wave train. This inference is further substantiated by an analysis of the pattern of wave-activity–flux vectors. Variations in the WNP convection are correlated with the ISV of the monsoons in both North American and East Asian (EA)/WNP sectors. These relationships lead to notable teleconnections between NAM and the EA/WNP monsoon on 20-day time scales.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 250-277 ◽  
Author(s):  
Parag Mahajan ◽  
Dean Yang

Do negative shocks in origin countries encourage or inhibit international migration? What roles do networks play in modifying out-migration responses? The answers to these questions are not theoretically obvious, and past empirical findings are equivocal. We examine the impact of hurricanes on a quarter century of international migration to the United States. Hurricanes increase migration to the United States, with the effect’s magnitude increasing in the size of prior migrant stocks. We provide new insights into how networks facilitate legal, permanent US immigration in response to origin country shocks, a matter of growing importance as climate change increases natural disaster impacts. (JEL F22, J15, Q54, Z13)


2021 ◽  

Abstract Because of the long-standing Canada-United States lumber trade dispute and the current pressure on the world's forests as a renewable energy source, much attention has been directed toward the modelling of international trade in wood products. Two types of trade models are described in this book: one is rooted in economic theory and mathematical programming, and the other consists of two econometric/statistical models--a gravity model rooted in theory and an approach known as GVAR that relies on time series analyses. The purpose of the book is to provide the background theory behind models and enable readers to easily construct their own models to analyze policy questions, whether in forestry or another sector. Examples in the book illustrate how models can be used to say something about a variety of issues, including identification of the gains and losses to various players in the North American softwood lumber business, and the potential for redirecting sales of lumber to countries outside the United States. The discussion is expanded to include other products besides lumber, and used to examine, for example, the effects of log export restrictions by one naton on all other forestry jurisdictions, the impacts of climate policies as they relate to the global forest sector, and the impact of oil prices on forest product markets throughout the world.


2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (15) ◽  
pp. 3956-3970 ◽  
Author(s):  
Min Wen ◽  
Song Yang ◽  
Wayne Higgins ◽  
Renhe Zhang

Abstract During the boreal summer (June–August), vigorous convection appears over the eastern Pacific, southern Mexico, and northern South America, and oscillates on a distinct time scale of 10–20 days. Extended empirical orthogonal function (EEOF) analysis shows that the quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) of the convection has two major modes: a west–east-orientated mode (WEM) and a north–south-orientated mode (NSM). The WEM, which is explained by the first two EEOF modes, originates over the eastern Atlantic, propagates westward along 15°N, and enhances over the Caribbean Sea before disappearing over the central Pacific. The NSM, explained by the third and fourth EEOF modes, originates over the western Pacific, moves eastward, and strengthens over the eastern Pacific. It shifts northward after arriving over the Caribbean Sea. Both modes have notable seasonal dependence, with the WEM more active in July and August and the NSM more active in June or earlier. The two distinct QBWO modes are linked to different rainfall patterns over the United States and Mexico. When the WEM is active in July and August, wet conditions occur over the southern central United States and dry conditions appear to the north. When the NSM is active in June, northern Mexico, the southwestern United States, the Missouri basin, and the northern Great Lakes are drier than normal, while southern Mexico and the eastern United States are wetter than normal. Significant variations in atmospheric circulation are found to be associated with the interannual variability of the NSM activity in June. However, these variations may not necessarily result from QBWO but, rather, provide a background for QBWO activity instead. In July and August, the association of QBWO with the precipitation pattern over North America may sometimes be related to hurricane activity.


2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 385-402
Author(s):  
José Osorio-Antonia ◽  
Lila Margarita Bada-Carbajal ◽  
Luis Arturo Rivas-Tovar

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is twofold. First, the impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on the agribusinesses of corn production in Mexico is analyzed, taking into special consideration the policy of encouragement to small producers, productive restructuring and identification of positive and negative effects. Second, the evolution of the US–Mexican maize belts (1994–2017) is analyzed, establishing the economic and political impacts with respect to NAFTA.Design/methodology/approachThe paper opted for a documentary meta-analysis study using data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the System of Agricultural and Fishery Information (SIAP) in Mexico. The data were completed with documentary analysis of research on maize productivity.FindingsProvided is the information about the impacts of maize belts in the United States (US) and Mexico, where it was determined that the leading states maintained productive hegemony to a greater and lesser extent and that Mexico experienced a productive reorientation. The findings show that it is a myth that there are losers in the maize agroindustry of Mexico and the United States as it is suggested that after twenty-four years they have become complementary.Research limitations/implicationsSummarized is the state of knowledge from 1994 to 2017, aligned to the databases of the United States and Mexico.Originality/valueA need to study the relation between the productive evolution of maize production and NAFTA is identified.


Climate Law ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 50-93
Author(s):  
Paul A. Barresi

The disparate fates of the polluter pays principle (ppp) as an instrument of municipal environmental governance in the environmental law of China, India, and the United States illustrate how institutions and culture can shape its use. In China, essential elements of the Chinese legal tradition and an institutionalized devolution of power from the central government to local governments essentially neutralized the Chinese variant of the ppp in one important context by mobilizing certain culturally defined behavioural norms at the local level. In India, the Supreme Court has behaved in accordance with the socially revolutionary role intended for it by the framers of India’s Constitution by recognizing a maximalist conception of the ppp as part of Indian law, although other features of India’s unique legal culture and institutions have reduced the impact of this development. In the United States, the institutionalized fragmentation of the law-making process within the Federal Government has undermined even the implicit implementation of the ppp, to which US environmental statutes do not refer. The implications of these developments for the ppp as an instrument of municipal but also global environmental governance in climate change mitigation law flow less from the nominal status of the ppp in the laws of China, India, and the United States than from the unique institutional and cultural conditions that prevail there. The result is a case study in how institutions and culture can transform the implementation of a principle of environmental governance that at first glance might seem to be a simple exercise in economic rationality into a different exercise that is not simple at all.


Author(s):  
John P. McCray

The dramatic growth in trade between the United States and Mexico from $12.39 billion to $56.8 billion of U.S. exports and $17.56 billion to $73 billion of U.S. imports between 1977 and 1996 and the implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) have focused attention on the impact that the truck-transported portion of this trade has on U.S. highways. State and federal highway administrators are concerned with the planning implications this additional unexpected traffic may have on the transportation infrastructure. Public advocacy groups want additional highway funds to promote one NAFTA highway corridor over others in an effort to stimulate additional economic development. Most of these groups advocate a north-south route through the United States between Canada and Mexico that follows the alignment of an existing federal highway number. Research conducted by the U.S. government under the 1991 Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act has failed to define NAFTA highway corridors adequately, leaving policy makers with little concrete information with which to combat the rhetoric of the trade highway corridor advocacy groups. A report is provided on research critical to the needs of both highway administrators and corridor advocacy groups, namely, the location of U.S.-Mexican trade highway corridors and the trade truck density along these corridors.


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