scholarly journals Climate Science Needs to Take Risk Assessment Much More Seriously

2019 ◽  
Vol 100 (9) ◽  
pp. 1637-1642 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rowan T. Sutton

AbstractFor decision-makers, climate change is a problem in risk assessment and risk management. It is, therefore, surprising that the needs and lessons of risk assessment have not featured more centrally in the consideration of priorities for physical climate science research, or in the Working Group I contributions to the major assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This article considers the reasons, which include a widespread view that the job of physical climate science is to provide predictions and projections—with a focus on likelihood rather than risk—and that risk assessment is a job for others. This view, it is argued, is incorrect. There is an urgent need for physical climate science to take the needs of risk assessment much more seriously. The challenge of meeting this need has important implications for priorities in climate research, climate modeling, and climate assessments.

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-100 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Sharpe

Abstract. Humanity's situation with respect to climate change is sometimes compared to that of a frog in a slowly boiling pot of water, meaning that change will happen too gradually for us to appreciate the likelihood of catastrophe and act before it is too late. I argue that the scientific community is not yet telling the boiling frog what he needs to know. I use a review of the figures included in two reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to show that much of the climate science communicated to policymakers is presented in the form of projections of what is most likely to occur, as a function of time (equivalent to the following statement: in 5 min time, the water you are sitting in will be 2 ∘C warmer). I argue from first principles that a more appropriate means of assessing and communicating the risks of climate change would be to produce assessments of the likelihood of crossing non-arbitrary thresholds of impact, as a function of time (equivalent to the following statement: the probability of you being boiled to death will be 1 % in 5 min time, rising to 100 % in 20 min time if you do not jump out of the pot). This would be consistent with approaches to risk assessment in fields such as insurance, engineering, and health and safety. Importantly, it would ensure that decision makers are informed of the biggest risks and hence of the strongest reasons to act. I suggest ways in which the science community could contribute to promoting this approach, taking into account its inherent need for cross-disciplinary research and for engagement with decision makers before the research is conducted instead of afterwards.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Sharpe

Abstract. Humanity's situation with respect to climate change is sometimes compared to that of a frog in a slowly-boiling pot of water, meaning that change will happen too gradually for us to appreciate the likelihood of catastrophe and act before it is too late. I argue that the scientific community is not yet telling the boiling frog what he needs to know. I use a review of the figures included in two reports of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change to show that much of the climate science communicated to policymakers is presented in the form of projections of what is most likely to occur, as a function of time (equivalent to: in 5 minutes' time, the water you are sitting in will be two degrees warmer). I argue from first principles that a more appropriate means of assessing and communicating the risks of climate change would be to produce assessments of the likelihood of crossing non-arbitrary thresholds of impact, as a function of time (equivalent to: the probability of you being boiled to death will be 1% in five minutes' time, rising to 100% in twenty minutes' time if you don't jump out of the pot). This would be consistent with approaches to risk assessment in fields such as insurance, engineering, and health and safety. Importantly, it would ensure decision-makers were informed of the biggest risks, and hence of the strongest reasons to act. I suggest ways in which the science community could contribute to promoting this approach, taking into account its inherent need for cross-disciplinary research and for engagement with decision-makers before the research is conducted, instead of afterwards.


Author(s):  
Jeroen Hopster

While the foundations of climate science and ethics are well established, fine-grained climate predictions, as well as policy-decisions, are beset with uncertainties. This chapter maps climate uncertainties and classifies them as to their ground, extent and location. A typology of uncertainty is presented, centered along the axes of scientific and moral uncertainty. This typology is illustrated with paradigmatic examples of uncertainty in climate science, climate ethics and climate economics. Subsequently, the chapter discusses the IPCC’s preferred way of representing uncertainties and evaluates its strengths and weaknesses from a risk management perspective. Three general strategies for decision-makers to cope with climate uncertainty are outlined, the usefulness of which largely depends on whether or not decision-makers find themselves in a context of deep uncertainty. The chapter concludes by offering two recommendations to ease the work of policymakers, faced with the various uncertainties engrained in climate discourse.


2020 ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
BARUCH FISCHHOFF

Abstract The behavioral sciences were there at the beginning of the systematic study of climate change. However, in the ensuing quarter century, they largely faded from view, during which time public discourse and policy evolved without them. That disengagement and the recent reengagement suggest lessons for the future role of the behavioral sciences in climate science and policy. Looking forward, the greatest promise lies in projects that make behavioral science integral to climate science by: (1) translating behavioral results into the quantitative estimates that climate analyses need; (2) making climate research more relevant to climate-related decisions; and (3) treating the analytical process as a behavioral enterprise, potentially subject to imperfection and improvement. Such collaborations could afford the behavioral sciences more central roles in setting climate-related policies, as well as implementing them. They require, and may motivate, changes in academic priorities.


2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (22) ◽  
pp. 5902-5917 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Yu ◽  
D-Z. Sun

Abstract The coupled model of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) is used to investigate the effects of extratropical cooling and warming on the tropical Pacific climate. The IAP coupled model is a fully coupled GCM without any flux correction. The model has been used in many aspects of climate modeling, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) climate change and paleoclimate simulations. In this study, the IAP coupled model is subjected to cooling or heating over the extratropical Pacific. As in an earlier study, the cooling and heating is imposed over the extratropical region poleward of 10°N–10°S. Consistent with earlier findings, an elevated (reduced) level of ENSO activity in response to an increase (decrease) in the cooling over the extratropical region is found. The changes in the time-mean structure of the equatorial upper ocean are also found to be very different between the case in which ocean–atmosphere is coupled over the equatorial region and the case in which the ocean–atmosphere over the equatorial region is decoupled. For example, in the uncoupled run, the thermocline water across the entire equatorial Pacific is cooled in response to an increase in the extratropical cooling. In the corresponding coupled run, the changes in the equatorial upper-ocean temperature in the extratropical cooling resemble a La Niña situation—a deeper thermocline in the western and central Pacific accompanied by a shallower thermocline in the eastern Pacific. Conversely, with coupling, the response of the equatorial upper ocean to extratropical cooling resembles an El Niño situation. These results ascertain the role of extratropical ocean in determining the amplitude of ENSO. The results also underscore the importance of ocean–atmosphere coupling in the interaction between the tropical Pacific and the extratropical Pacific.


Author(s):  
John Wihbey ◽  
Bud Ward

The relationship between scientific experts and news media producers around issues of climate change has been a complicated and often contentious one, as the slow-moving and complex story has frequently challenged, and clashed with, journalistic norms of newsworthiness, speed, and narrative compression. Even as climate scientists have become more concerned by their evidence-based findings involving projected risks, doubts and confusion over communications addressing those risks have increased. Scientists increasingly have been called upon to speak more clearly and forcefully to the public through news media about evidence and risks—and to do so in the face of rapidly changing news media norms that only complicate those communications. Professional science and environment journalists—whose ranks have been thinned steadily by media industry financial pressures—have meanwhile come under more scrutiny in terms of their understanding; accuracy; and, at times, perceived bias. A number of important organizations have recognized the need to educate and empower a broad range of scientists and journalists to be more effective at communicating about the complexities of climate science and about the societal and economic impacts of a warming climate. For example, organizations such as Climate Communication have been launched to support scientists in their dealings with media, while the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change itself has continued to focus on the communication of climate science. The Earth Journalism Network, Society of Environmental Journalists, Poynter Institute, and the International Center for Journalists have worked to build media capacity globally to cover climate change stories. Efforts at Stanford University, the University of Oxford, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Harvard University, and the University of Rhode Island sponsor programming and fellowships that in part help bolster journalism in this area. Through face-to-face workshops and online efforts, The Yale Project on Climate Change Communication has sought to link the media and science communities. Meanwhile, powerful, widely read sites and blogs such as “Dot Earth,” hosted by the New York Times, Climate Central, Real Climate, The Conversation, and Climate Progress have fostered professional dialogue, greater awareness of science, and called attention to reporting and communications issues. Journalists and scientists have had ongoing conversations as part of the regular publication and reporting processes, and professional conferences and events bring the two communities together. Issues that continue to animate these discussions include conveying the degree to which climate science can be said to be “settled” and how to address uncertainty. Through some of these capacity-building efforts, news media have become increasingly aware of audience dynamics including how citizens respond to pessimistic reports, or “doom and gloom,” versus solutions-oriented reports. Professional dialogue has also revolved around the ethical dimensions of conveying a story at the level of global importance. Still, with issues of climate change communication on display for more than two decades now, certain tensions and dynamics persist. Notably, journalists seek clarity from scientists, while climate change experts and advocates for and against taking climate action often continue to demand that journalists resist the temptation to oversimplify or hype the latest empirical findings, while at the same time urging that journalists do not underestimate potential climate risks.


Climate ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (9) ◽  
pp. 107
Author(s):  
Marin Akter ◽  
Rubaiya Kabir ◽  
Dewan Sadia Karim ◽  
Anisul Haque ◽  
Munsur Rahman ◽  
...  

Risk assessment of climatic events and climate change is a globally challenging issue. For risk as well as vulnerability assessment, there can be a large number of socioeconomic indicators, from which it is difficult to identify the most sensitive ones. Many researchers have studied risk and vulnerability assessment through specific set of indicators. The set of selected indicators varies from expert to expert, which inherently results in a biased output. To avoid biased results in this study, the most sensitive indicators are selected through sensitivity analysis performed by applying a non-linear programming system, which is solved by Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions. Here, risk is assessed as a function of exposure, hazard, and vulnerability, which is defined in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), where, exposure and vulnerability are described via socioeconomic indicators. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistical test is applied to select the set of indicators that are the most sensitive for the system to assess risk. The method is applied to the Bangladesh coast to determine the most sensitive socioeconomic indicators in addition to assessing different climatic and climate change hazard risks. The methodology developed in this study can be a useful tool for risk-based planning.


2015 ◽  
Vol 03 (04) ◽  
pp. 1550031 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan ZHENG ◽  
Xiaoyu ZHANG

Climate change has become an important driving factor for regional migration. This paper projects the crop yields in the typical sub-regions of Ningxia with SRES-A1B climate modeling method, and makes an expert evaluation on future risk of climate-induced migration based on IPCC risk framework. The paper argues that there would be an increasing rural-urban migration flow from the central and southern areas to the northern area of Ningxia in the near future, mainly because of the trend of a decreasing climate carrying capacity and an expanding poverty population in those vulnerable areas to climate change. This paper concludes that well-designed relocation plans would help to facilitate the migration as well as to promote the urbanization in Ningxia, taking into consideration of future climate change scenarios and risk assessment on climate-induced migration.


2011 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 183-187 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthias Gross

Abstract: Redclift (2011) provided a timely and perhaps deliberately provocative overview of sociological writings on climate change and the disciplinary problems of a post carbon world for environmental sociology. This comment emphasizes that he never actually clarifies what exactly are those problems that sociology faces in its attempt to open up a space for itself in the field of climate research. This omission also leads to unnecessary claims regarding the state of social science research on climate change as well as unspecified calls for more interdisciplinarity in sociological analysis of contemporary societies’ carbon dependence.


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