scholarly journals Multiscale Forecasting of High-Impact Weather: Current Status and Future Challenges

Author(s):  
Sharanya J. Majumdar ◽  
Juanzhen Sun ◽  
Brian Golding ◽  
Paul Joe ◽  
Jimy Dudhia ◽  
...  

Capsule SummaryThe WMO HIWeather Multiscale Hazard Forecasting project members and collaborators review the current status and future challenges in Observations, Nowcasting, Data Assimilation, Ensemble Forecasting, and Coupled Hazard Modeling.

2010 ◽  
Vol 2010 ◽  
pp. 1-2
Author(s):  
Zhaoxia Pu ◽  
Song-You Hong ◽  
Yaohui Li ◽  
Hann-Ming Henry Juang

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Branka Ivančan-Picek ◽  
Martina Tudor ◽  
Kristian Horvath ◽  
Antonio Stanešić ◽  
Ivatek Ivatek-Šahdan

Abstract. The HYdrological cycle in the Mediterranean EXperiment (HyMeX) is intended to improve the capabilities to predict high impact weather events. In its framework, the first Special Observation Period (SOP1), 5 September to 6 November 2012, was aimed to study heavy precipitation events and flash floods. Here we present high impact weather events over Croatia that occurred during SOP1. A particular attention is given to eight Intense Observation Periods (IOP)s during which high precipitation occurred over the eastern Adriatic and Dinaric Alps. During the entire SOP1, the operational models forecasts generally represented well medium intensity precipitation, while heavy precipitation was frequently underestimated by the ALADIN 8 km and overestimated at higher resolution (2 km). During IOP2 intensive rainfall event occurred in wider area of the city of Rijeka in the northern Adriatic. Short-range maximum rainfall totals have achieved maximum values ever recorded at Rijeka station since the beginning of measurements in 1958. The rainfall amount measured in intervals of 20, 30 and 40 minutes could be expected once in a more than thousand, few hundreds and hundred years respectively, and they belong to the extraordinarily rare events. The operational precipitation forecast using ALADIN model at 8 km grid spacing underestimated the rainfall intensity. Evaluation of numerical sensitivity experiments suggested that forecast was slightly enhanced by improving the initial conditions through variational data assimilation. The operational non-hydrostatic run at 2 km grid spacing using configuration with ALARO physics package further improved the forecast. This article highlights the need for an intensive observation period in the future over the Adriatic region, to validate the simulated mechanisms and improve numerical weather prediction via data assimilation and model improvements in description of microphysics and air-sea interaction.


2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. 2657-2682 ◽  
Author(s):  
Branka Ivančan-Picek ◽  
Martina Tudor ◽  
Kristian Horvath ◽  
Antonio Stanešić ◽  
Stjepan Ivatek-Šahdan

Abstract. The HYdrological cycle in the Mediterranean EXperiment (HyMeX) is intended to improve the capabilities of predicting high-impact weather events. Within its framework, the aim of the first special observation period (SOP1), 5 September to 6 November 2012, was to study heavy precipitation events and flash floods. Here, we present high-impact weather events over Croatia that occurred during SOP1. Particular attention is given to eight intense observation periods (IOPs), during which high precipitation occurred over the eastern Adriatic and Dinaric Alps. During the entire SOP1, the operational model forecasts generally well represented medium intensity precipitation, but heavy precipitation was frequently underestimated by the ALADIN model at an 8 km grid spacing and was overestimated at a higher resolution (2 km grid spacing). During IOP2, intensive rainfall occurred over a wider area around the city of Rijeka in the northern Adriatic. The short-range maximum rainfall totals were the largest ever recorded at the Rijeka station since the beginning of measurements in 1958. The rainfall amounts measured in intervals of 20, 30 and 40 min were exceptional, with return periods that exceeded a thousand, a few hundred and one hundred years, respectively. The operational precipitation forecast using the ALADIN model at an 8 km grid spacing provided guidance regarding the event but underestimated the rainfall intensity. An evaluation of numerical sensitivity experiments suggested that the forecast was slightly enhanced by improving the initial conditions through variational data assimilation. The operational non-hydrostatic run at a 2 km grid spacing using a configuration with the ALARO physics package further improved the forecast. This article highlights the need for an intensive observation period in the future over the Adriatic region to validate the simulated mechanisms and improve numerical weather predictions via data assimilation and model improvements in descriptions of microphysics and air–sea interactions.


Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 832
Author(s):  
Mauro Capocelli ◽  
Vincenzo Piemonte

Water is fundamental for the quality of both ecosystems and society, and plays a key role for energy and food production, a prerequisite for the sustainable development [...]


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 23-33
Author(s):  
Jin Wang ◽  
Yue Zhang ◽  
Mohamed Elshaer ◽  
William Perdikakis ◽  
Chengcheng Yao ◽  
...  

Kidney Cancer ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 107-114 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laure Fournier ◽  
Alexandre Bellucci ◽  
Yann Vano ◽  
Mehdi Bouaboula ◽  
Constance Thibault ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (5) ◽  
pp. 1513-1531 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oriol Rodríguez ◽  
Joan Bech ◽  
Juan de Dios Soriano ◽  
Delia Gutiérrez ◽  
Salvador Castán

Abstract. Post-event damage assessments are of paramount importance to document the effects of high-impact weather-related events such as floods or strong wind events. Moreover, evaluating the damage and characterizing its extent and intensity can be essential for further analysis such as completing a diagnostic meteorological case study. This paper presents a methodology to perform field surveys of damage caused by strong winds of convective origin (i.e. tornado, downburst and straight-line winds). It is based on previous studies and also on 136 field studies performed by the authors in Spain between 2004 and 2018. The methodology includes the collection of pictures and records of damage to human-made structures and on vegetation during the in situ visit to the affected area, as well as of available automatic weather station data, witness reports and images of the phenomenon, such as funnel cloud pictures, taken by casual observers. To synthesize the gathered data, three final deliverables are proposed: (i) a standardized text report of the analysed event, (ii) a table consisting of detailed geolocated information about each damage point and other relevant data and (iii) a map or a KML (Keyhole Markup Language) file containing the previous information ready for graphical display and further analysis. This methodology has been applied by the authors in the past, sometimes only a few hours after the event occurrence and, on many occasions, when the type of convective phenomenon was uncertain. In those uncertain cases, the information resulting from this methodology contributed effectively to discern the phenomenon type thanks to the damage pattern analysis, particularly if no witness reports were available. The application of methodologies such as the one presented here is necessary in order to build homogeneous and robust databases of severe weather cases and high-impact weather events.


2014 ◽  
Vol 118 (1208) ◽  
pp. 1125-1135 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. J. Kingan

Abstract The purpose of this paper is to describe the current status of open rotor noise prediction methods and to highlight future challenges in this area. A number of analytic and numerical methods are described which can be used for predicting ‘isolated’ and ‘installed’ open rotor tonal noise. Broadband noise prediction methods are also described and it is noted that further development and validation of the current models is required. The paper concludes with a discussion of the analytical methods which are used to assess the acoustic data collected during the high-speed wind-tunnel testing of a model scale advanced open rotor rig.


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