Recent Changes in Annual Area Burned in Interior Alaska: The Impact of Fire Management

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (5) ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. P. Calef ◽  
A. Varvak ◽  
A. D. McGuire ◽  
F. S. Chapin ◽  
K. B. Reinhold
Keyword(s):  
Boreal Forest ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Fire Service ◽  
Area Burned ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The Alaskan boreal forest is characterized by frequent extensive wildfires whose spatial extent has been mapped for the past 70 years. Simple predictions based on this record indicate that area burned will increase as a response to climate warming in Alaska. However, two additional factors have affected the area burned in this time record: the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) switched from cool and moist to warm and dry in the late 1970s and the Alaska Fire Service instituted a fire suppression policy in the late 1980s. In this paper a geographic information system (GIS) is used in combination with statistical analyses to reevaluate the changes in area burned through time in Alaska considering both the influence of the PDO and fire management. The authors found that the area burned has increased since the PDO switch and that fire management drastically decreased the area burned in highly suppressed zones. However, the temporal analysis of this study shows that the area burned is increasing more rapidly in suppressed zones than in the unsuppressed zone since the late 1980s. These results indicate that fire policies as well as regional climate patterns are important as large-scale controls on fires over time and across the Alaskan boreal forest.

Human Influences on Wildfire in Alaska from 1988 through 2005: An Analysis of the Spatial Patterns of Human Impacts

2008 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. P. Calef ◽  
A. D. McGuire ◽  
F. S. Chapin
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Boreal Forest ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Human Impacts ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Human Presence ◽  
Area Burned ◽  
Interior Alaska ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Boreal ecosystems in Alaska are responding to climate change in many ways, including changes in the fire regime. While large-scale wildfires are an essential part of the boreal forest ecosystem, humans are changing fire regimes through ignition and suppression. The authors analyzed the impact humans have on fire ignitions and relative area burned with distance into the forest from human access points such as settlements, highways, and major rivers in Alaska from 1988 to 2005. Additionally, a fire prediction model was created to identify drivers for lightning fires in the boreal forest. Human presence increases the number of ignitions near settlements, roads, and rivers and appears to reduce the area burned within 30–40 km of villages and rivers. In contrast to fires near roads and rivers, human presence may somewhat increase the area burned within 30–40 km of highways. The fire prediction model indicated that the probability of fire increases as distance from human settlements increases. In contrast, the model indicated that the probability of fire decreases as distance from roads increases and that the probability of fire in relation to distance from rivers depends on the year of analysis. While the ecological consequences of these human impacts are still unclear, this research shows that human influences on fire regime clearly affect the pattern of fire within 40 km of settlements, which is an area that represents 31% of interior Alaska. Future research should focus on more completely understanding the role of human presence in the suppression of wildfires in interior Alaska.

scholarly journals Climate Perspectives in the Intra–Americas Seas

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 959
Author(s):  
Ana María Durán-Quesada ◽  
Rogert Sorí ◽  
Paulina Ordoñez ◽  
Luis Gimeno
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Current Knowledge ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Weather And Climate ◽  
The Impact

The Intra–Americas Seas region is known for its relevance to air–sea interaction processes, the contrast between large water masses and a relatively small continental area, and the occurrence of extreme events. The differing weather systems and the influence of variability at different spatio–temporal scales is a characteristic feature of the region. The impact of hydro–meteorological extreme events has played a huge importance for regional livelihood, having a mostly negative impact on socioeconomics. The frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events and droughts are often discussed in terms of their impact on economic activities and access to water. Furthermore, future climate projections suggest that warming scenarios are likely to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme events, which poses a major threat to vulnerable communities. In a region where the economy is largely dependent on agriculture and the population is exposed to the impact of extremes, understanding the climate system is key to informed policymaking and management plans. A wealth of knowledge has been published on regional weather and climate, with a majority of studies focusing on specific components of the system. This study aims to provide an integral overview of regional weather and climate suitable for a wider community. Following the presentation of the general features of the region, a large scale is introduced outlining the main structures that affect regional climate. The most relevant climate features are briefly described, focusing on sea surface temperature, low–level circulation, and rainfall patterns. The impact of climate variability at the intra–seasonal, inter–annual, decadal, and multi–decadal scales is discussed. Climate change is considered in the regional context, based on current knowledge for natural and anthropogenic climate change. The present challenges in regional weather and climate studies have also been included in the concluding sections of this review. The overarching aim of this work is to leverage information that may be transferred efficiently to support decision–making processes and provide a solid foundation on regional weather and climate for professionals from different backgrounds.

scholarly journals Continentality and Oceanity in the Mid and High Latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and Their Links to Atmospheric Circulation

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edvinas Stonevicius ◽  
Gintautas Stankunavicius ◽  
Egidijus Rimkus
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Teleconnection Patterns ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Impact

The climate continentality or oceanity is one of the main characteristics of the local climatic conditions, which varies with global and regional climate change. This paper analyzes indexes of continentality and oceanity, as well as their variations in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere in the period 1950–2015. Climatology and changes in continentality and oceanity are examined using Conrad’s Continentality Index (CCI) and Kerner’s Oceanity Index (KOI). The impact of Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns on continentality/oceanity conditions was also evaluated. According to CCI, continentality is more significant in Northeast Siberia and lower along the Pacific coast of North America as well as in coastal areas in the northern part of the Atlantic Ocean. However, according to KOI, areas of high continentality do not precisely correspond with those of low oceanity, appearing to the south and west of those identified by CCI. The spatial patterns of changes in continentality thus seem to be different. According to CCI, a statistically significant increase in continentality has only been found in Northeast Siberia. In contrast, in the western part of North America and the majority of Asia, continentality has weakened. According to KOI, the climate has become increasingly continental in Northern Europe and the majority of North America and East Asia. Oceanity has increased in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and in some parts of the Mediterranean region. Changes in continentality were primarily related to the increased temperature of the coldest month as a consequence of changes in atmospheric circulation: the positive phase of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic (EA) patterns has dominated in winter in recent decades. Trends in oceanity may be connected with the diminishing extent of seasonal sea ice and an associated increase in sea surface temperature.

Intraseasonal Transitions of the Wintertime Pacific Jet Stream

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Madsen ◽  
Jonathan Martin
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Intraseasonal Variability ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Jet Stream ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Jet Variability ◽  
The Impact

<p>The deficiency in predictability at subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales, as compared to prediction at conventional weather prediction timescales, is significant. Intraseasonal variability of atmospheric features like the jet stream, occurring within this gap, lead to extreme weather events that present considerable hazards to society. As jets are an important feature at the interface of the large-scale general circulation and the life cycle of individual weather systems, there is strong incentive to more comprehensively understand their variability.</p><p>The wintertime Pacific jet manifests its intraseasonal variability in two predominant modes: a zonal extension or retraction and a meridional shift by as much as 20° of the jet exit region. These two leading modes are associated with basin-scale anomalies in the Pacific that directly impact weather in Hawaii and continental North America. Although recent work has demonstrated the impact intramodal changes of the Pacific jet have on large-scale structure, sensible weather phenomena, and forecast skill in and around the vast North Pacific Basin, the transitions between the leading modes have hardly been considered and, therefore, are poorly understood. Consequently, this work examines the nature and predictability of transitions between modes of wintertime Pacific jet variability as well as their associated synoptic environments.</p><p>We apply two distinct but complementary statistical analyses to 70 cold seasons (NDJFM 1948/49-2017/18) of daily 250-hPa zonal winds from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis to investigate such transitions. Empirical orthogonal analysis (EOF)/principal component (PC) analysis is used to depict the state of the daily Pacific jet as a point in a two dimensional phase space defined by the two leading modes.  Supporting this technique is a self-organizing maps (SOMs) analysis that identifies non-orthogonal, synoptically recurring patterns of the Pacific jet. Together, these analyses show that there are, in fact, preferred transitions between these leading modes of variability. Composite and individual case analyses of preferred transition evolutions provides new insight into the synoptic-scale environments that drive Pacific jet variability.</p>

scholarly journals Improving runoff estimates from regional climate models: a performance analysis in Spain

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 175-214
Author(s):  
D. González-Zeas ◽  
L. Garrote ◽  
A. Iglesias ◽  
A. Sordo-Ward
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Direct Runoff ◽  
Interpolation Methods ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. An important aspect to assess the impact of climate change on water availability is to have monthly time series representative of the current situation. In this context, a simple methodology is presented for application in large-scale studies in regions where a properly calibrated hydrologic model is not available, using the output variables simulated by regional climate models (RCMs) of the European project PRUDENCE under current climate conditions (period 1961–1990). The methodology compares different interpolation methods and alternatives to generate annual times series that minimize the bias with respect to observed values. The objective is to identify the best alternative to obtain bias-corrected, monthly runoff time series from the output of RCM simulations. This study uses information from 338 basins in Spain that cover the entire mainland territory and whose observed values of naturalised runoff have been estimated by the distributed hydrological model SIMPA. Four interpolation methods for downscaling runoff to the basin scale from 10 RCMs are compared with emphasis on the ability of each method to reproduce the observed behavior of this variable. The alternatives consider the use of the direct runoff of the RCMs and the mean annual runoff calculated using five functional forms of the aridity index, defined as the ratio between potential evaporation and precipitation. In addition, the comparison with respect to the global runoff reference of the UNH/GRDC dataset is evaluated, as a contrast of the "best estimator" of current runoff on a large scale. Results show that the bias is minimised using the direct original interpolation method and the best alternative for bias correction of the monthly direct runoff time series of RCMs is the UNH/GRDC dataset, although the formula proposed by Schreiber also gives good results.

scholarly journals Model and Observational Analysis of the Northeast U.S. Regional Climate and Its Relationship to the PNA and NAO Patterns during Early Winter

2006 ◽  
Vol 134 (11) ◽  
pp. 3479-3505 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Notaro ◽  
W-C. Wang ◽  
W. Gong
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Great Lakes ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Early Winter ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Upper Level Jet ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Nao Pattern

Abstract The relationship between the large-scale circulation and regional climate of the northeast United States is investigated for early winter using observational data and the State University of New York at Albany regional climate model. Simulated patterns of temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric circulation compare well with observations, despite a cold, dry bias. Ten December runs are analyzed to investigate the impact of the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern on temperature, precipitation, clouds, and circulation features. During a positive PNA pattern, the simulated and observed eastern U.S. jet shifts to the southeast, coinciding with cold, dry conditions in the Northeast. This shift and intensification of the upper-level jet stream during a positive PNA pattern coincides with a greater frequency of cyclones and anticyclones along a distinct southwest–northeast track. Despite increased cyclone activity, total wintertime precipitation is below normal during a positive PNA pattern because of enhanced stability and subsidence over land, along with lower-atmospheric moisture content. Lower surface air temperatures during a positive PNA pattern result in enhanced simulated cloud cover over the Great Lakes and Atlantic Ocean due to increased thermal contrast and fluxes of sensible and latent heat, and a reduction in clouds over land. Interactions between the PNA and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) patterns impact the Northeast winter climate. Observed frontal passages through New York are most abundant during a negative PNA and positive NAO pattern, with a zonal upper-level jet positioned over New York. A positive PNA pattern is frequently characterized by an earlier observed Great Lakes ice season, while the greatest lake-effect snowfall occurs during a positive PNA and negative NAO pattern. The NAO pattern has the largest impact on northeast U.S. temperatures and the eastern U.S. upper-level jet during a positive PNA pattern.

The impact of ENSO and the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) on the upper tropospheric large scale flow in the PRIMAVERA models.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paolo Ghinassi ◽  
Federico Fabiano ◽  
Virna L. Meccia ◽  
Susanna Corti
Keyword(s):  
Rossby Wave ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Rossby Waves ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Transient Wave ◽  
Weather Regime ◽  
Weather Regimes ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Large Scale Flow ◽  
The Impact

<p>Rossby waves play a fundamental role for both climate and weather. They are in fact associated with heat, momentum and moisture transport across large distances and with different types of weather at the surface. Assessing how they are represented in climate models is thus of primary importance to understand both predictability and the present and future climate. In this study we investigate how ENSO and the AMV affect the large scale flow pattern in the upper troposphere of the Northern Hemisphere, using reanalysis data and data from the PRIMAVERA simulations.</p><p>The upper tropospheric large scale flow is investigated in terms of the Rossby wave activity associated with persistent and recurrent patterns over the Pacific-North American and Euro-Atlantic regions during winter, the so called weather regimes. In order to quantify the vigour of Rossby wave activity associated with each weather regime we make use of a recently developed diagnostic based on Finite Amplitude Local Wave Activity in isentropic coordinates, partitioning the total wave activity into the stationary and transient components. The former is associated with quasi-stationary, planetary Rossby waves, whereas the latter is associated with synoptic scale Rossby wave packets. This allows one to quantify the contribution from stationary versus transient eddies in the total Rossby wave activity linked to each weather regime.</p><p>In this study we explore how ENSO and the AMV affect both the weather regimes frequencies and the upper tropospheric waviness in the Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks, respectively. Furthermore we analyse how both the stationary and transient wave activity component modulate the onset and transition between different regimes.</p>

Potential Impact of the Eurasian Boreal Forest on North Pacific Climate Variability*

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (6) ◽  
pp. 981-992 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Notaro ◽  
Zhengyu Liu
Keyword(s):  
Boreal Forest ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Vegetation Cover ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Forest Cover ◽  
Kuroshio Extension ◽  
Vegetation Feedback ◽  
North Asia ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Kuroshio

Abstract The authors demonstrate that variability in vegetation cover can potentially influence oceanic variability through the atmospheric bridge. Experiments aimed at isolating the impact of variability in forest cover along the poleward side of the Asian boreal forest on North Pacific SSTs are performed using the fully coupled model, Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model–Lund Potsdam Jena (FOAM-LPJ), with dynamic atmosphere, ocean, and vegetation. The northern edge of the simulated Asian boreal forest is characterized by substantial variability in annual forest cover, with an east–west dipole pattern marking its first EOF mode. Simulations in which vegetation cover is allowed to vary over north/central Russia exhibit statistically significant greater SST variance over the Kuroshio Extension. Anomalously high forest cover over North Asia supports a lower surface albedo with higher temperatures and lower sea level pressure, leading to a reduction in cold advection into northern China and in turn a decrease in cold air transport into the Kuroshio Extension region. Variability in the large-scale circulation pattern is indirectly impacted by the aforementioned vegetation feedback, including the enhancement in upper-level jet wind variability along the north–south flanks of the East Asian jet stream.

scholarly journals How Momentum Coupling Affects SST Variance and Large-Scale Pacific Climate Variability in CESM

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (7) ◽  
pp. 2927-2944 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah M. Larson ◽  
Daniel J. Vimont ◽  
Amy C. Clement ◽  
Ben P. Kirtman
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
Easterly Wind ◽  
Tropical Forcing ◽  
Freshwater Fluxes ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Anomalous Wind ◽  
Momentum Coupling ◽  
The Impact

The contribution of buoyancy (thermal + freshwater fluxes) versus momentum (wind driven) coupling to SST variance in climate models is a longstanding question. Addressing this question has proven difficult because a gap in the model hierarchy exists between the fully coupled (momentum + buoyancy + ocean dynamics) and slab–mixed layer ocean coupled (thermal with no ocean dynamics) versions. The missing piece is a thermally coupled configuration that permits anomalous ocean heat transport convergence decoupled from the anomalous wind stress. A mechanically decoupled model configuration is provided to fill this gap and diagnose the impact of momentum coupling on SST variance in NCAR CESM. A major finding is that subtropical SST variance increases when momentum coupling is disengaged. An “opposing flux hypothesis” may explain why the subtropics (midlatitudes) experience increased (reduced) variance without momentum coupling. In a subtropical easterly wind regime, Ekman fluxes [Formula: see text] oppose thermal fluxes [Formula: see text], such that when the air and sea are mechanically decoupled [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text] variance increases. As a result, SST variance increases. In a midlatitude westerly regime where [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] typically reinforce each other, SST variance is reduced. Changes in mean surface winds with climate change could impact the [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] covariance relationships. A by-product of mechanically decoupling the model is the absence of ENSO variability. The Pacific decadal oscillation operates without momentum coupling or tropical forcing, although the pattern is modified with enhanced (reduced) variability in the subtropics (midlatitudes). Results show that Ekman fluxes are an important component to tropical, subtropical, and midlatitude SST variance.

Simulation analysis of the impact of ignitions, rekindles, and false alarms on forest fire suppression

2014 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abílio P. Pacheco ◽  
João Claro ◽  
Tiago Oliveira
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Simulation Analysis ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Discrete Event ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
Forest Fire Management ◽  
The Impact

Rekindles and false alarms are phenomena that have a significant presence in the Portuguese forest fire management system and an important impact on suppression resources in particular and fire management resources in general. In this paper, we propose a discrete-event simulation model of a forest fire suppression system designed to analyze the joint impact of ignitions, rekindles, and false alarms on the performance of the system. The model is applied to a case study of the district of Porto, Portugal, for the critical period of the forest fire season, between July and September 2010. We study the behavior of the system’s point of collapse, comparing the real base scenario with a benchmark scenario built with reference values for rekindles and false alarms, and also as a function of the number of fire incidents, considering historical variations. The results of the analysis are useful for operational decision-making and provide relevant information on the trade-off between prevention and suppression efforts.

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