Interpreting Observed Temperature Probability Distributions Using a Relationship between Temperature and Temperature Advection

The non-normality of temperature probability distributions and the physics that drive it are important due to their relationships to the frequency of extreme warm and cold events. Here we use a conditional mean framework to explore how horizontal temperature advection and other physical processes work together to control the shape of daily temperature distributions during 1979-2019 in the ERA5 reanalysis for both JJA and DJF. We demonstrate that the temperature distribution in mid- and high- latitudes can largely be linearly explained by the conditional mean horizontal temperature advection with the simple treatment of other processes as a Newtonian relaxation with a spatially-variant relaxation time scale and equilibrium temperature. We analyze the role of different transient and stationary components of the horizontal temperature advection in affecting the shape of temperature distributions. The anomalous advection of the stationary temperature gradient has a dominant effect in influencing temperature variance, while both that term and the covariance between anomalous wind and anomalous temperature have significant effects on temperature skewness. While this simple method works well over most of the ocean, the advection-temperature relationship is more complicated over land. We classify land regions with different advection-temperature relationships under our framework, and find that for both seasons the aforementioned linear relationship can explain ~30% of land area, and can explain either the lower or the upper half of temperature distributions in an additional ~30% of land area. Identifying the regions where temperature advection explains shapes of temperature distributions well will help us gain more confidence in understanding the future change of temperature distributions and extreme events.

Anomalous wind triggered the largest phytoplankton bloom in the oligotrophic North Pacific Subtropical Gyre

In summer 2010, a massive bloom appeared in the middle (16–25°N, 160–200°E) of the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre (NPSG) creating a spectacular oasis in the middle of the largest oceanic desert on Earth. Peaked in June 2010 covering over two million km2 in space, this phytoplankton bloom is the largest ever recorded by ocean color satellites in the NPSG over the period from 1997 to 2013. The initiation and mechanisms sustaining the massive bloom were due to atmospheric and oceanic anomalies. Over the north (25–30°N) of the bloom, strong anticyclonic winds warmed sea surface temperature (SST) via Ekman convergence. Subsequently, anomalous westward ocean currents were generated by SST meridional gradients between 19°N and 25°N, producing strong velocity shear that caused large number of mesoscale (100-km in order) cyclonic eddies in the bloom region. The ratio of cyclonic to anticyclonic eddies of 2.7 in summer 2010 is the highest over the 16-year study period. As a result of the large eddy-number differences, eddy-eddy interactions were strong and induced submesoscale (smaller than 100 km) vertical pumping as observed in the in-situ ocean profiles. The signature of vertical pumping was also presented in the in-situ measurements of chlorophyll and nutrients, which show higher concentrations in 2010 than other years.

Anomalous wind circulation over Taipei, Taiwan during the northern winter seasons of 2004 and 2005- A case study

This research reports, for the first time, an anomalous wind circulation over Taipei (Latitude 25.030N, Longitude 121.510E), Taiwan during the northern hemisphere winter season (December, January, and February) of years 2004 and 2005. The anomalous wind circulation of meridional winds, which showed southward directions during the winter seasons of 2004 and 2005 instead of northward winds, is noticed from one kilometer altitude range (lower troposphere) and that trend continued till around 20 km altitude range (lower stratosphere). To ascertain whether such a disturbed nature of wind pattern existed over nearby locations to Taipei, we have analyzed radiosonde-measured meridional and zonal winds over four nearby stations station to Taipei including, Roig, Xiamen, Minami and Fuzhou. Surprisingly, no anomalous wind behavior is seen except over Taipei during the northern winter seasons of 2004 and 2005. On the other hand, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model-predicted winds do not show any anomalous wind patterns over Taipei and other nearby stations, possibly due to the large averaging of internal variabilities of reanalysis databases. The plausible physical mechanisms of these disturbed meridional wind patterns are not understood at this juncture, but it is believed that local winds and atmospheric pollutants might have created an amicable environment as to provide such a disturbed meridional wind pattern over Taipei, Taiwan in the winter season of 2004 and 2005.

How Momentum Coupling Affects SST Variance and Large-Scale Pacific Climate Variability in CESM

The contribution of buoyancy (thermal + freshwater fluxes) versus momentum (wind driven) coupling to SST variance in climate models is a longstanding question. Addressing this question has proven difficult because a gap in the model hierarchy exists between the fully coupled (momentum + buoyancy + ocean dynamics) and slab–mixed layer ocean coupled (thermal with no ocean dynamics) versions. The missing piece is a thermally coupled configuration that permits anomalous ocean heat transport convergence decoupled from the anomalous wind stress. A mechanically decoupled model configuration is provided to fill this gap and diagnose the impact of momentum coupling on SST variance in NCAR CESM. A major finding is that subtropical SST variance increases when momentum coupling is disengaged. An “opposing flux hypothesis” may explain why the subtropics (midlatitudes) experience increased (reduced) variance without momentum coupling. In a subtropical easterly wind regime, Ekman fluxes [Formula: see text] oppose thermal fluxes [Formula: see text], such that when the air and sea are mechanically decoupled [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text] variance increases. As a result, SST variance increases. In a midlatitude westerly regime where [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] typically reinforce each other, SST variance is reduced. Changes in mean surface winds with climate change could impact the [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] covariance relationships. A by-product of mechanically decoupling the model is the absence of ENSO variability. The Pacific decadal oscillation operates without momentum coupling or tropical forcing, although the pattern is modified with enhanced (reduced) variability in the subtropics (midlatitudes). Results show that Ekman fluxes are an important component to tropical, subtropical, and midlatitude SST variance.

Oceanic response to changes in the WAIS and astronomical forcing during the MIS31 superinterglacial

Marine Isotope Stage 31 (MIS31, between 1085 ka and 1055 ka) was characterized by higher extratropical air temperatures and a substantial recession of polar glaciers compared to today. Paleoreconstructions and modeling efforts have increased the understanding of MIS31 interval, but questions remain regarding the role of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans in modifying climate anomalies associated with the variations in Earth’s orbital parameters. Based on multi-century coupled climate simulations, it is shown that under the astronomical configuration of the MIS31 and forced by modified West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) topography, there exists a substantial increase in the thermohaline flux and its associated northward oceanic heat transport (OHT) in both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. In the Atlantic, these changes are driven by enhanced oceanic heat loss to the atmosphere and increased water density. In the Pacific, anomalous wind-driven circulation in concert with stronger meridional overturning circulation results in greater northward OHT that contributes up to 85 % of the global OHT anomalies, adding to an overall reduction in sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) due to Earth’s astronomical configuration at the time. Sea-ice changes in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) are highlighted by decreased (increased) cover in Ross (Weddell) Sea.

Gravity-wave momentum fluxes in the mesosphere over Ascension Island (8° S, 14° W) and the anomalous zonal winds of the semi-annual oscillation in 2002

Anomalously strong westward winds during the first phase of the equatorial mesospheric semi-annual oscillation (MSAO) have been attributed to unusual filtering conditions producing exceptional gravity-wave fluxes. We test this hypothesis using meteor-radar measurements made over Ascension Island (8° S, 14° W). An anomalous wind event in 2002 of −85.5 ms−1 occurred simultaneously with the momentum fluxes of high-frequency gravity waves reaching the largest observed westward values of −29 m2 s−2 and strong westward wind accelerations of −510 ms−1 day−1. However, despite this strong wave forcing during the event, no unusual filtering conditions or significant increases in wave-excitation proxies were observed. Further, although strong westward wave-induced accelerations were also observed during the 2006 MSAO first phase, there was no corresponding simultaneous response in westward wind. We thus suggest that strong westward fluxes/accelerations of high-frequency gravity waves are not always sufficient to produce anomalous first-phase westward MSAO winds and other forcing may be significant.

A Surface Wind Extremes (“Wind Lulls” and “Wind Blows”) Climatology for Central North America and Adjoining Oceans (1979–2012)

This study explores long-term deviations from wind averages, specifically near the surface across central North America and adjoining oceans (25°–50°N, 60°–130°W) for 1979–2012 (408 months) by utilizing the North American Regional Reanalysis 10-m wind climate datasets. Regions where periods of anomalous wind speeds were observed (i.e., 1 standard deviation below/above both the long-term mean annual and mean monthly wind speeds at each grid point) were identified. These two climatic extremes were classified as wind lulls (WLs; below) or wind blows (WBs; above). Major findings for the North American study domain indicate that 1) mean annual wind speeds range from 1–3 m s−1 (Intermountain West) to over 7 m s−1 (offshore the East and West Coasts), 2) mean durations for WLs and WBs are high for much of the southeastern United States and for the open waters of the North Atlantic Ocean, respectively, 3) the longest WL/WB episodes for the majority of locations have historically not exceeded 5 months, 4) WLs and WBs are most common during June and October, respectively, for the upper Midwest, 5) WLs are least frequent over the southwestern United States during the North American monsoon, and 6) no significant anomalous wind trends exist over land or sea.