scholarly journals Skill and Skill Prediction of Cloud-Track Advection-Only Forecasting under a Cumulus-Dominated Regime

2017 ◽  
Vol 56 (3) ◽  
pp. 651-665
Author(s):  
Vivek Srikrishnan ◽  
George S. Young ◽  
Jeffrey R. S. Brownson
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Transfer ◽  
Power Systems ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Solar Power ◽  
Power Production ◽  
Energy Integration ◽  
Taylor’S Hypothesis ◽  
Short Time ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe intermittency of solar power production is dependent on the evolution and advection of the nearby cloud field. A key problem related to solar energy integration is the improvement of 1-h-ahead forecasts to reduce the impact of intermittency on power systems operations. Many solar forecasts explicitly or implicitly assume Taylor’s hypothesis. While such advection-only forecasts can be presumed to be valid across sufficiently short time scales, it is not clear how rapidly the skill of such a forecast decays with increased lead time. As the goal is to improve the quality of 1-h-ahead forecasts, this work focuses on quantifying the skill of cloud-track wind-based cumulus-dominated cloud field forecasts with respect to lead time. No explicit connection is drawn to the quality of solar forecasts because of the importance of separating two potential sources of error: cloud field forecasting and radiative transfer estimation. It is found that the cumulus field forecast skill begins to asymptotically approach a minimum at lead times of beyond 30 min, suggesting that advection-only forecasts in a cumulus-dominated environment should not be relied upon for 1-h-ahead point forecasts used by radiative transfer methods to estimate solar power production. A first attempt at forming a probabilistic forecast that can quantify this increasing uncertainty when using advection-only methods is presented.

Exploring mass customization and textile application in medical products: re-designing scoliosis brace for shorter production lead time and better quality of life

2020 ◽  
Vol 90 (19-20) ◽  
pp. 2304-2321
Author(s):  
Olivia Ho-Yi Fung ◽  
Joanne Yip ◽  
Mei-Chun Cheung ◽  
Kit-Lun Yick ◽  
Kenny Yat-Hong Kwan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Patient Compliance ◽  
Mass Customization ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Interface Pressure ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Exerted Pressure ◽  
The Impact

Bracing is the most common non-operative treatment option for patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS). However, existing brace designs have deficiencies, including a long production lead time and low patient compliance caused by the negative impacts of bracing on quality of life (QoL). The aim of this study was to address these problems by developing a new textile-based scoliosis brace in accordance with the biomechanics used in the existing braces for spinal correction. A case study of interface pressure had been carried out to determine the optimum combination of pads to be used in the proposed brace to correct a scoliotic spine. AIS patients who were undergoing hard brace treatment were recruited to complete a questionnaire (BrQ) on hard braces and on the proposed brace. The BrQ scores of the two types of braces were compared to assess their respective impacts on the QoL. The findings show that the proposed brace can address the issue of patient compliance by reducing the impact of bracing on QoL, and shorten the production lead time through incorporation of the mass customization concept into the design. Similar to most of the commonly-used scoliosis braces, the selected combination of pads used in the proposed brace for spinal correction shows a sufficient amount of exerted pressure and a similar function of active spinal correction.

scholarly journals A systemic approach to the research of personnel in agriculture of the region

2021 ◽  
Vol 37 ◽  
pp. 00032
Author(s):  
Elena A. Chulkova ◽  
Lyaysana I. Rakhmatullina
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Econometric Modeling ◽  
Industrial Complex ◽  
Target Indicator ◽  
Methodical Approach ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Innovative Economy ◽  
Short Time ◽  
The Impact

Development of an innovative economy gives rise to the need to form a highly competent workforce capable of creating and implementing innovations in a short time. This also applies to agriculture as a sector of the economy that ensures the food security of the regions and the country as a whole. The level and quality of the labor force is considered as the most important resource in the activities and development of the agro-industrial complex. A methodical approach to a systematic study of the use of staffing in agriculture in the region is proposed, the difference of which is the use of econometric modeling to assess the impact on the target indicator of the components of staff by areas of activity and level of qualifications. The application of the approach is shown on the example of the sector of agricultural organizations of municipal districts of the Orenburg region.

scholarly journals The Impact of Stress Stability on Job Satisfaction and the Quality of Human Capital

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 333 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irina A. Rudaleva ◽  
Askar N. Mustafin
Keyword(s):  
Job Satisfaction ◽  
Psychological State ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Professional Stress ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Bank Employees ◽  
Short Time ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Main Factor

<p>Long professional stress has a significant impact on the psychological state of employees that inevitably affects the activities of any organization. Therefore, at present, more and more attention is being paid to minimize the negative consequences of stressful staff conditions, with the help of specific procedures of stress management. In this paper, we investigated the impact of stress, the types of stress-resistance of staff individual, and the influence of stress on the degree of job satisfaction of bank employees. The study concludes that the following factors affect the level of job satisfaction of bank employees: wage satisfaction, the level of stress at the workplace, and the relationships in the team. The main factor of the bank employees stress is a large amount of work and a short time period for doing the work. </p>

scholarly journals Model and Analysis of Integrating Wind and PV Power in Remote and Core Areas with Small Hydropower and Pumped Hydropower Storage

Energies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 3459 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xianxun Wang ◽  
Lihua Chen ◽  
Qijuan Chen ◽  
Yadong Mei ◽  
Hao Wang
Keyword(s):  
Power Systems ◽  
Power System ◽  
Thermal Power ◽  
Power Production ◽  
Total Power ◽  
Energy Integration ◽  
Small Hydropower ◽  
Peak Period ◽  
Renewable Power ◽  
Core Areas

Small hydropower (SHP) and pumped hydropower storage (PHS) are ideal members of power systems with regard to integrating intermittent power production from wind and PV facilities in modern power systems using the high penetration of renewable energy. Due to the limited capacity of SHP and the geographic restrictions of PHS, these power sources have not been adequately utilized in multi-energy integration. On the one hand, rapidly increasing wind/PV power is mostly situated in remote areas (i.e., mountain and rural areas) and is delivered to core areas (i.e., manufacturing bases and cities) for environmental protection and economic profit. On the other hand, SHP is commonly dispersed in remote areas and PHS is usually located in core areas. This paper proposes a strategy to take advantage of the distribution and regulation features of these renewable energy sources by presenting two models, which includes a remote power system model to explore the potential of SHP to smooth the short-term fluctuations in wind and PV power by minimizing output fluctuations as well as a core power system model to employ PHS to shift the surplus power to the peak period by maximizing the income from selling regenerated power and minimizing output fluctuations. In the proposed first model, the cooperative regulation not only dispatches SHP with a reciprocal output shape to the wind/PV output to smooth the fluctuations but also operates the reservoir with the scheduled total power production by adjusting its output in parallel. The results of a case study based on a municipal power system in Southwestern China show that, with the proposed method, SHP can successfully smooth the short-term fluctuations in wind and PV power without influencing the daily total power production. Additionally, SHP can replace the thermal power production with renewable power production, smooth the thermal output, and further reduce the operation costs of thermal power. By storing the surplus power in the upper reservoir and regenerating the power during the peak period, PHS can obtain not only the economic benefit of selling the power at high prices but also the environmental benefit of replacing non-renewable power with renewable power. This study provides a feasible approach to explore the potential of SHP and PHS in multi-energy integration applications.

The impact of concentrated solar power in electric power systems: A Chilean case study

2019 ◽  
Vol 235 ◽  
pp. 258-283 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Mena ◽  
R. Escobar ◽  
Á. Lorca ◽  
M. Negrete-Pincetic ◽  
D. Olivares
Keyword(s):  
Power Systems ◽  
Electric Power ◽  
Solar Power ◽  
Electric Power Systems ◽  
Concentrated Solar Power ◽  
The Impact

Investigation on the Effect of Liquid Hammer Geometry to the Pressure Distribution of Innovative Hybrid Impact Hydroforming

2014 ◽  
Vol 941-944 ◽  
pp. 1843-1849 ◽  
Author(s):  
Murhaf Marai ◽  
Li Hui Lang ◽  
Shao Hua Wang ◽  
Li Jin Lin ◽  
Chun Lei Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Loading Condition ◽  
Experimental Approach ◽  
High Energy ◽  
Geometrical Shape ◽  
Wave Loading ◽  
Forming Process ◽  
Short Time ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Complex Parts

The innovative hybrid impact hydroforming (IHF) technology is a kind of high energy forming technique which can be used for forming complex parts with small features, such as convex tables, bars etc. which are widely employed in automotive and aircraft industries. The impact hydroforming technology means the most features are formed by hydroforming and the small features are rapidly reshaped by high intensity impact energy in a very short time after the traditional hydroforming. The impact pressure rises to the peak in 10ms which belongs to dynamic loading. The present work investigates IHF using a numerical /experimental approach. Finite element simulations using MSC.Patran were carried out changing the geometrical shape of liquid hammer.. Using this shock wave loading condition we did forming experiments. During forming process, stress distribution in the blank is comparatively better as compared with traditional methods so possibility of fracture is reduced. Inertia is also an important factor which affects control quality. Therefore, the research is very useful for improving forming quality of complicated products. It will be widely applied in automotive and aircraft industries.

scholarly journals Pengembangan Kerajinan Sangkar Burung Kelurahan Kadipiro, Surakarta, Jawa Tengah

Abdi Seni ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 120-127
Author(s):  
Aan Sudarwanto ◽  
Rahayu Adi Prabowo ◽  
Ari Supriyanto
Keyword(s):  
Human Resources ◽  
Community Service ◽  
Production System ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Branded Product ◽  
Skilled Workforce ◽  
The Many ◽  
Short Time ◽  
The Impact

AbstrakKriya mempunyai cakupan yang sangat luas salah satunya adalah   kriya kayu, dimana   konsentrasi penggunaan bahan baku utamanya   didominasi   bahan baku kayu. Diantara keragaman produk kriya kayu adalah produk kerajian sangkar burung. Dari data yang ada diketahui bahwa dalam 10 tahun terakhir telah mengalami booming. Hal ini karena banyaknya muncul peternak burung sebagai komoditi perdagangan maupun banyaknya komunitas-komunitas pecinta burung baik dari kalangan masyarakat ekonomi lemah hingga masyarakat menengah dan atas. Kebutuhan sangkar burung meningkat dengan pesat hampir merata di setiap daerah dan berdampak pula muncul sentra kerajinan sangkar burung sebagai kantong penghasil sangkar burung. Salah satunya sentra kerajinan sangkar burung di kalurahan Kadipiro, Banjarsari, Surakarta. Terdapat  beberapa permasalahan  yang  menjadikendala di sentra kerajinan sangkar burung di kalurahan Kadipiro Surakarta, diantaranya adalah; Tidak mampu memproduksi dalam waktu yang singkat, tidak adanya standarisasi produk fungsional, kurangnya tenaga kerja trampil dalam mengembangkan produk. Tidak ada produk dengan branded tertentu sehingga mudah ditiru. Berpijak dari permasalahan dan kondisi di sentra kerajinan sangkar burung Kadipiro  maka  dilakukan kegiatan peningkatan pengembangan produk sangkar burung melalui program PPM, dengan target pengusaha bernama Yudi Haryadi yang saat ini sedang merintis kerajinan sangkar burung bernama “Carisa Sangkar” . Fokus dari kegiatan PPM ini lebih diarahkan pada pada aspek peningkatan kualitas produk karya kriya kayu khususnya sangkar burung dengan pembuatan desain yang baik sampai  menjadi  prototype.  Kemudian  dilakukan  penguatan sumber  daya  manusia, melalui pendampingan lapangan, yang diharapkan dapat meningkatkan penjualan dan sekaligus secara tidak langsung dapat meningkatan kesejahteraan masyarakat.Kata kunci : Kriya,  kreativitas, sangkar burung, sistem produksi AbstractCraft has a very broad scope one of which is wood craft, where the concentration of the use of raw materials  is mainly  dominated by  wood raw  materials. Among the  wood craft  products are  bird cage. It is known that in the last 10 years becoming the peak season. This is due to the large number of bird breeders emerging as trade commodities as well as the many bird-loving communities from among the economically weak to the middle and upper classes. The need for bird cages is rapidly increasing almost evenly in every area and the impact is also emerging centers of bird cage crafts as bird cage producers. One  is a bird cage craft center in Kadipiro , Banjarsari, Surakarta. There are a number of problems that have become obstacles in the bird cage handicraft center in Kadipiro Surakarta, including not able to produce in a short time, there is no standardization of functional products, lack of skilled workforce in developing products. There is no specific branded product so it is easy to imitate. Based on the problems and conditions in the Kadipiro bird cage craft, activities to improve the development of bird cage products through the community service , with the target of a businessman named Yudi Haryadi who is currently pioneering a bird cage craft called “Carisa Cage”. Improving the quality of wood craft products, especially birdcages by making good designs to become prototypes. Then do strengthening human resources, through field assistance, which is expected to increase sales and at the same time indirectly improve community welfare.Keywords: crafts, creativity, bird cage, production system

The Impact of Distributed Generation on Power Quality of the Electric Network

2015 ◽  
Vol 792 ◽  
pp. 248-254 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrey Marchenko ◽  
Alexander Fishov
Keyword(s):  
Power Systems ◽  
Electric Power ◽  
Distributed Generation ◽  
Electric Energy ◽  
Electric Power Systems ◽  
Electricity Distribution ◽  
Surrounding Area ◽  
Functional Models ◽  
The Impact

The paper describes the investigation results of distributed generation connection to the electricity distribution network, and its impact on the quality of electric energy at the load nodes of the surrounding area. The studies were performed with the use of the electro-dynamic model of electric power systems. Technological and functional models were created to provide accounts on low generation services to improve electricity quality.

What Is Six Hours Worth? The Impact of Lead Time on Tropical-Storm Preparation Decisions

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-23
Author(s):  
Eva D. Regnier
Keyword(s):  
False Alarm ◽  
False Alarm Rate ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Storm Damage ◽  
Considerable Uncertainty ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Time Required ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Forecast Quality

Emergency managers must make high-stakes decisions regarding preparation for tropical storms when there is still considerable uncertainty regarding the storm’s impacts. Forecast quality improves as lead time until the forecast events declines. Reducing the lead time required for preparation decisions can substantially improve the quality of forecasts available for decision making and thereby, reduce the expected total costs of preparations plus storm damage. Measures of forecast quality are only indirectly linked to their value in preparation decisions and changes in the parameters of those decisions—in particular lead time. This paper provides decision-relevant measures of the quality of recent National Hurricane Center forecasts from the 2014–2018 seasons, which can be used to evaluate reductions in decision lead time in terms of false alarm rate, missed detections, and expected annual costs. For decision makers in some regions with decision lead times of 48–72 hours—typical for evacuation decisions—every 6-hour reduction in required lead time can reduce the false alarm rate by more than 10%.

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