scholarly journals Trends in Winter Warm Spells in the Central England Temperature Record

2020 ◽  
Vol 59 (6) ◽  
pp. 1069-1076
Author(s):  
S. C. Chapman ◽  
E. J. Murphy ◽  
D. A. Stainforth ◽  
N. W. Watkins
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Variability ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Temperature Record ◽  
Ecological Processes ◽  
Threefold Increase ◽  
Central England Temperature ◽  
Maximum Temperatures ◽  
Crossing Theory ◽  
Warm Spell ◽  
Temperature Time

AbstractAn important impact of climate change on agriculture and the sustainability of ecosystems is the increase of extended warm spells during winter. We apply crossing theory to the central England temperature time series of winter daily maximum temperatures to quantify how increased occurrence of higher temperatures translates into more frequent, longer-lasting, and more intense winter warm spells. We find since the late 1800s an overall two- to threefold increase in the frequency and duration of winter warm spells. A winter warm spell of 5 days in duration with daytime maxima above 13°C has a return period that was often over 5 years but now is consistently below 4 years. Weeklong warm intervals that return on average every 5 years now consistently exceed ~13°C. The observed changes in the temporal pattern of environmental variability will affect the phenology of ecological processes and the structure and functioning of ecosystems.

scholarly journals High temperatures drive offspring mortality in a cooperatively breeding bird

2020 ◽  
Vol 287 (1931) ◽  
pp. 20201140
Author(s):  
Amanda R. Bourne ◽  
Susan J. Cunningham ◽  
Claire N. Spottiswoode ◽  
Amanda R. Ridley
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Group Size ◽  
High Temperatures ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Environmental Variability ◽  
Arid Zone ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Development Stages ◽  
Maximum Temperatures

An improved understanding of life-history responses to current environmental variability is required to predict species-specific responses to anthopogenic climate change. Previous research has suggested that cooperation in social groups may buffer individuals against some of the negative effects of unpredictable climates. We use a 15-year dataset on a cooperative breeding arid zone bird, the southern pied babbler Turdoides bicolor , to test (i) whether environmental conditions and group size correlate with survival of young during three development stages (egg, nestling, fledgling) and (ii) whether group size mitigates the impacts of adverse environmental conditions on survival of young. Exposure to high mean daily maximum temperatures (mean T max ) during early development was associated with reduced survival probabilities of young in all three development stages. No young survived when mean T max > 38°C, across all group sizes. Low survival of young at high temperatures has broad implications for recruitment and population persistence in avian communities given the rapid pace of advancing climate change. Impacts of high temperatures on survival of young were not moderated by group size, suggesting that the availability of more helpers in a group is unlikely to buffer against compromised offspring survival as average and maximum temperatures increase with rapid anthropogenic climate change.

scholarly journals Lyapunov Exponents and Temperature Transitions in a Warming Australia

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (10) ◽  
pp. 2969-2989 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Gilmore
Keyword(s):  
Lyapunov Exponents ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Temperature Record ◽  
Maximum Daily Temperature ◽  
State Variable ◽  
Abrupt Changes ◽  
Maximum Temperatures

Abstract Multiple potential tipping points in the Earth system that involve alternative states have been identified that are susceptible to anthropogenic forcing. Past events—from millions of years ago to within the last century—have manifest as abrupt changes in climatic indicators such as the temperature record. Recent unprecedented heat waves in Australia, their associated devastation, and the considerations above provide motivation to ask whether the Australian daily maximum temperature record has been subject to such abrupt changes. Using a new diagnostic tool—the Lyapunov plot—here it is shown that multiple temperature transitions have occurred with respect to the maximum daily temperature record in widely separated locations in Australia over the last 150 years. All maximum Lyapunov exponents are positive in sign, indicating that the transitions are chaos-to-chaos transitions, and that the different climate modes identified are likely to be manifestations of distinct chaotic attractors. Many of these events occur simultaneously with transitions or extremes in the major natural cycles affecting Australia’s climate, but this observation is not universal. It is known that chaos-to-chaos transitions can result in changes in the value(s) of the state variable(s) that can range from subtle to severe. Although the identified transitions are not catastrophic, this observation does not rule out the possibility of severe, unprecedented, and discontinuous increases in average daily maximum temperatures occurring in Australia at any time within the next few decades.

Using Land Cover, Population, and Night Light Data for Assessing Local Temperature Differences in Mainz, Germany

2015 ◽  
Vol 54 (3) ◽  
pp. 658-670 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jenny Lindén ◽  
Jan Esper ◽  
Björn Holmer
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Light Intensity ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Surface Coverage ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Source Areas ◽  
Maximum Temperatures ◽  
The City

AbstractUrban areas are believed to affect temperature readings, thereby biasing the estimation of twentieth-century warming at regional to global scales. The precise effect of changes in the surroundings of meteorological stations, particularly gradual changes due to urban growth, is difficult to determine. In this paper, data from 10 temperature stations within 15 km of the city of Mainz (Germany) over a period of 842 days are examined to assess the connection between temperature and the properties of the station surroundings, considering (i) built/paved area surface coverage, (ii) population, and (iii) night light intensity. These properties were examined in circles with increasing radii from the stations to identify the most influential source areas. Daily maximum temperatures Tmax, as well as daily average temperatures, are shown to be significantly influenced by elevation and were adjusted before the analysis of anthropogenic surroundings, whereas daily minimum temperatures Tmin were not. Significant correlations (p < 0.1) between temperature and all examined properties of station surroundings up to 1000 m are found, but the effects are diminished at larger distance. Other factors, such as slope and topographic position (e.g., hollows), were important, especially to Tmin. Therefore, properties of station surroundings up to 1000 m from the stations are most suitable for the assessment of potential urban influence on Tmax and Tmin in the temperate zone of central Europe.

scholarly journals Extreme Temperature Events in Serbia in Relation to Atmospheric Circulation

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 1584
Author(s):  
Ivana Tošić ◽  
Suzana Putniković ◽  
Milica Tošić ◽  
Irida Lazić
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Absolute Maximum ◽  
Extreme Temperature Events ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Patterns ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Maximum Temperatures ◽  
The Relationship

In this study, extremely warm and cold temperature events were examined based on daily maximum (Tx) and minimum (Tn) temperatures observed at 11 stations in Serbia during the period 1949–2018. Summer days (SU), warm days (Tx90), and heat waves (HWs) were calculated based on daily maximum temperatures, while frost days (FD) and cold nights (Tn10) were derived from daily minimum temperatures. Absolute maximum and minimum temperatures in Serbia rose but were statistically significant only for Tx in winter. Positive trends of summer and warm days, and negative trends of frost days and cold nights were found. A high number of warm events (SU, Tx90, and HWs) were recorded over the last 20 years. Multiple linear regression (MLR) models were applied to find the relationship between extreme temperature events and atmospheric circulation. Typical atmospheric circulation patterns, previously determined for Serbia, were used as predictor variables. It was found that MLR models gave the best results for Tx90, FD, and Tn10 in winter.

scholarly journals Assessment of the Environmental and Societal Impacts of the Category-3 Typhoon Hato

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric C. H. Chow ◽  
Min Wen ◽  
Lei Li ◽  
Marco Y. T. Leung ◽  
Paxson K. Y. Cheung ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
High Temperature ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Heat Index ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Temperature Record ◽  
Astronomical Tide ◽  
Extreme High Temperature

The destructiveness and potential hazards brought to the Pearl River Delta (PRD) by the category-3 typhoon Hato in 2017 have been studied. The results show that wind flow is one of the key parameters influenced by tropical cyclones. The observed wind at Shenzhen station changed from median southwesterly and calm northerly to strong easterly during the evolution of Hato as it approached the PRD and during landfall, respectively. The peak wind intensity at the surface level and a height of 300 m reached over 17 m s−1 and 30 m s−1, respectively. In Zhuhai, the area closest to the landfall location, the situ observation shows that the maximum wind and the maximum gust on 23 August 2017 reached 29.9 m s−1 and over 50 m s−1, respectively, which is a record-breaking intensity compared with the highest recorded intensity during tropical cyclone (TC) activity in Vicente in 2012. The maximum sea level during 23 August 2017, with an added influence from the storm surge and the astronomical tide, was found to be over 3.9 m to the west of Hong Kong. Extreme high temperature was also recorded on 22 August 2017 before the landfall, with 38.4, 38, and 36.9 °C of daily maximum temperature in Shenzhen, Macao, and Hong Kong, respectively. Based on the heat index calculated with the temperature record at Shenzhen’s station, the hot temperature hazard reached “danger” levels. On the other hand, a prominent air quality deterioration was observed on 21 August 2017. The concentrations rapidly increased to 1 time greater than those on the previous day in Hong Kong. The TC-induced sinking motion, continental advection, and less amount of cloud cover were observed before the landfall, and would be the possible factors causing the extreme high temperature and the poor air quality. This case study illustrates that the influences of Hato to the PRD were not only limited to their destructiveness during landfall, but also brought the extreme high temperature and poor air quality.

scholarly journals Long-term Effect of Temperature and Triadimefon on Proliferation of Uncinula necator: Implications for Fungicide Resistance and Disease Risk Assessment

Plant Disease ◽  
1997 ◽  
Vol 81 (10) ◽  
pp. 1187-1192 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. L. Ypema ◽  
W. D. Gubler
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Resistant Isolate ◽  
Effect Of Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Uncinula Necator ◽  
Risk Assessment Models ◽  
Temperature Regimes ◽  
Entire Duration ◽  
Maximum Temperatures

Triadimefon has been used in California to control Uncinula necator, causal agent of grape powdery mildew, since 1982. Instances of unsatisfactory control have occurred mainly in the cooler coastal areas of California. The effect of temperature and application of triadimefon was investigated over a 53-day-period on two U. necator isolates, sensitive and resistant to triadimefon. At 15°C, 25°C, or temperatures fluctuating between 15 and 25°C, in absence of triadimefon, the isolates continued to produce high numbers of conidia for the entire duration of the experiment. Sporulation declined at daily maximum temperatures of 32°C for 6 h, 36°C for 3 h, and 40°C for 1 h, but was detectable when the experiment was terminated. At these temperature regimes, sporulation of the triadimefon-treated sensitive isolate ceased after 23 days. When treated with triadimefon, sporulation of the resistant isolate was comparable to that of the water-treated control. At daily maximum temperatures of 32°C for 11 h, 36°C for 6 h, and 40°C for 3 h, sporulation of both isolates generally ceased after 23 days, regardless of triadimefon application. Triadimefon resistance is most likely to manifest itself under high disease pressure, which is in part a function of temperature. The duration of daily maximum temperatures may be a valuable addition to disease risk assessment models.

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