Recent Changes in Average Recurrence Interval Precipitation Extremes in the Middle-Atlantic United States

2022 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Climate Trends ◽  
Partial Duration Series ◽  
Middle Atlantic ◽  
Rainfall Occurrence ◽  
Hourly Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Extremes ◽  
Recent Trends

Abstract Increases in the frequency of extreme rainfall occurrence have emerged as one of the more consistent climate trends in recent decades, particularly in the eastern United States. Such changes challenge the veracity of the conventional assumption of stationarity that has been applied in the published extreme rainfall analyses that are the foundation for engineering design assessments and resiliency planning. Using partial duration series with varying record lengths, temporal changes in daily and hourly rainfall extremes corresponding to average annual recurrence probabilities ranging from 50% (i.e. the 2-year storm) to 1% (i.e. the 100-year storm) are evaluated. From 2000 through 2019, extreme rainfall amounts across a range of durations and recurrence probabilities have increased at 75% of the long-term precipitation observation stations in the Middle-Atlantic region. At about a quarter of the stations, increases in extreme rainfall have exceeded 5% from 2000 through 2019, with some stations experiencing increases in excess of 10% for both daily and hourly durations. At over 40% of the stations the rainfall extremes based on the 1950-1999 partial duration series show a significant (p >0.90) change in the 100-yr ARI relative to the 1950-2019 period. Collectively the results indicate that given recent trends in extreme rainfall, routine updates of extreme rainfall analyses are warranted on 20-year intervals.

scholarly journals A 10-Year Survey of Extreme Rainfall Events in the Central and Eastern United States Using Gridded Multisensor Precipitation Analyses

2014 ◽  
Vol 142 (9) ◽  
pp. 3147-3162 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanie N. Stevenson ◽  
Russ S. Schumacher
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Stage Iv ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Weather System ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Maximum Minimum

Extreme rainfall events in the central and eastern United States during 2002–11 were identified using NCEP stage-IV precipitation analyses. Precipitation amounts were compared against established 50- and 100-yr recurrence interval thresholds for 1-, 6-, and 24-h durations. The authors identified points where analyzed precipitation exceeded the threshold, and combined points associated with the same weather system into events. At shorter durations, points exceeding the thresholds were most common in the Southeast, whereas points were more uniformly distributed for the 24-h duration. Most 24-h events have more points than the other durations, reflecting the importance of organized precipitation systems on longer temporal scales. Though monthly peaks varied by region, the maximum (minimum) usually occurred during the summer (winter); however, the 24-h point maximum occurred in September owing to tropical cyclones. The maximum (minimum) in hourly extreme rainfall points occurred at 2300 (1100) LST, though there were regional differences in the timing of the diurnal maxima and minima. Over half of 100-yr, 24-h events were a result of mesoscale convective systems (MCS), with synoptic and tropical systems responsible for nearly one-third and one-tenth, respectively. Of the 10 events with the most points exceeding this threshold, 5 were associated with tropical cyclones, 3 were synoptic events, and 2 were MCSs. Among the MCS events, 7 of the top 10 were training line/adjoining stratiform (TL/AS). While the 49 TL/AS events investigated further had similar moisture availability, the more widespread events had stronger low-level winds, stronger warm air advection, and stronger and more expansive frontogenesis in the inflow.

scholarly journals Temperature and CAPE dependence of rainfall extremes in the eastern United States

2015 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
pp. 74-83 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chiara Lepore ◽  
Daniele Veneziano ◽  
Annalisa Molini
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Rainfall Extremes

scholarly journals Extreme Rainfall from Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in the Eastern United States: Hurricane Irene (2011)

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (11) ◽  
pp. 2883-2904 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maofeng Liu ◽  
James A. Smith
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Hurricane Sandy ◽  
Mountainous Terrain ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Rainfall Distribution ◽  
Extratropical Transition ◽  
Hurricane Irene ◽  
Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

Abstract Hurricane Irene produced catastrophic rainfall and flooding in portions of the eastern United States from 27 to 29 August 2011. Like a number of tropical cyclones that have produced extreme flooding in the northeastern United States, Hurricane Irene was undergoing extratropical transition during the period of most intense rainfall. In this study the rainfall distribution of landfalling tropical cyclones is examined, principally through analyses of radar rainfall fields and high-resolution simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. In addition to extratropical transition, the changing storm environment at landfall and orographic precipitation mechanisms can be important players in controlling the distribution of extreme rainfall. Rainfall distribution from landfalling tropical cyclones is examined from a Lagrangian perspective, focusing on times of landfall and extratropical transition, as well as interactions of the storm circulation with mountainous terrain. WRF simulations capture important features of rainfall distribution, including the pronounced change in rainfall distribution during extratropical transition. Synoptic-scale analyses show that a deep baroclinic zone developed and strengthened in the left-front quadrant of Irene, controlling rainfall distribution over the regions experiencing most severe flooding. Numerical experiments were performed with WRF to examine the role of mountainous terrain in altering rainfall distribution. Analyses of Hurricane Irene are placed in a larger context through analyses of Hurricane Hannah (2008) and Hurricane Sandy (2012).

scholarly journals The role of cyclonic activity in tropical temperature-rainfall scaling

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominik Traxl ◽  
Niklas Boers ◽  
Aljoscha Rheinwalt ◽  
Bodo Bookhagen
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Intensity Increase ◽  
Cyclonic Activity ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Hourly Temperature ◽  
Hourly Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Extremes

AbstractThe attribution of changing intensity of rainfall extremes to global warming is a key challenge of climate research. From a thermodynamic perspective, via the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship, rainfall events are expected to become stronger due to the increased water-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere. Here, we employ global, 1-hourly temperature and 3-hourly rainfall data to investigate the scaling between temperature and extreme rainfall. Although the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of +7% rainfall intensity increase per degree warming roughly holds on a global average, we find very heterogeneous spatial patterns. Over tropical oceans, we reveal areas with consistently strong negative scaling (below −40%∘C−1). We show that the negative scaling is due to a robust linear correlation between pre-rainfall cooling of near-surface air temperature and extreme rainfall intensity. We explain this correlation by atmospheric and oceanic dynamics associated with cyclonic activity. Our results emphasize that thermodynamic arguments alone are not enough to attribute changing rainfall extremes to global warming. Circulation dynamics must also be thoroughly considered.

Modelling sub-hourly rainfall extremes with short records - a comparison of MEV, Simplified MEV and point process methods

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li-Pen Wang ◽  
Francesco Marra ◽  
Christian Onof
Keyword(s):  
Point Process ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Alternative Methods ◽  
Process Theory ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Rainfall Frequency ◽  
Hourly Rainfall ◽  
Hourly Data ◽  
Rainfall Extremes

<p>Accurate information on extreme rainfall frequency at sub-hourly timescales is useful for many hydrological applications, such as urban drainage design and stormwater management. However, the availability of sub-hourly rainfall records with sufficient length and quality is generally limited in most countries. With these short datasets, the conventional rainfall frequency analysis methods (e.g. annual maxima (AM) series) are prone to systematic biases and large uncertainties. In this work, we take advantage of long sub-hourly rainfall archives to explore the potential of alternative methods that exploit a larger fraction of the available data (or features), thus promising accurate estimates from relatively short data records.</p><p>The first method is based upon the Metastatistical Extreme Value (MEV) framework, which relaxes the asymptotic assumption of traditional AM methods. MEV considers, year by year, the full distribution of the underlying ordinary events and their number of occurrences. The second method, the Simplified MEV (SMEV, a variant of MEV), in which inter-annual variability is neglected in favour of simpler parametrisation and more robust parameter estimation, is also tested. So far, these two methods were shown to outperform traditional methods for daily amounts, but were never used on sub-hourly data.</p><p>The third method is based upon point process theory, which represents the temporal rainfall process in a realistic yet simple way, such that the hierarchical structure of rainfall is explicitly incorporated, and several parameters have a physical interpretation. Models based upon point process theory were known to be incapable of preserving extreme rainfall statistics at hourly and sub‑hourly timescales. Nonetheless, a recent breakthrough has overcome this deficiency (Onof and Wang, 2019). In this work, a revised randomised Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulse model (RBL) is employed.</p><p>Five-minute rainfall data from 5 long recording rain gauges in Germany – Bochum (69 years), Aplerbeck, Kruckel, Marten and Nettebach (49 years) – are used. The comparison is conducted by resembling the scenarios where sub-hourly rainfall time series data are available with various short lengths (i.e. 5/10/15/20 years). SMEV and RBL generally outperform the MEV and AM in preserving sub-hourly rainfall extremes and are both much less sensitive to the use of short data records. SMEV outperforms RBL in preserving rainfall extremes at short return periods (< 10-year return periods), while they perform similarly at long return periods. RBL however has the advantage of preserving rainfall extremes across multiple timescales (i.e. from sub-hourly, hourly to 1-day) at the same time. The unsatisfactory performance of MEV is related to the influence of the low-intensity tail of yearly distributions.</p>

scholarly journals Recent trends in daily rainfall extremes over Montenegro (1951–2010)

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 2347-2377 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Burić ◽  
J. Luković ◽  
B. Bajat ◽  
M. Kilibarda ◽  
V. Ducić
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Intense Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Extremes ◽  
Expert Team ◽  
Recent Trends ◽  
Negative Impacts

Abstract. More intense rainfall may cause a range of negative impacts upon society and the environment. In this study we analyzed trends in extreme ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) rainfall indices in Montenegro for the period 1951–2010. Montenegro has been poorly studied in terms of rainfall extremes, yet it contains the wettest Mediterranean region known as Krivošije. Several indices of precipitation extremes were assessed including the number of dry days and rainfall totals, and their trends to identify possible changes. The results generally suggest that the number of days with precipitation decreased while rainfall intensity increased particularly in south-western parts of the country. A slight tendency towards intense rainfall events is suggested. Calculated trends for each index are spatially presented and examined using a plotGoogleMaps software package. This study also examined spatial pattern of relationship between extreme rainfall indices and North Atlantic Oscillation. Results suggested negative, mainly statistically significant correlations at annual, winter and autumn scale.

scholarly journals Mixture Distributions and the Hydroclimatology of Extreme Rainfall and Flooding in the Eastern United States

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 294-309 ◽  
Author(s):  
James A. Smith ◽  
Gabriele Villarini ◽  
Mary Lynn Baeck
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Flood Peak ◽  
Storm Evolution ◽  
Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

Abstract Flooding in the eastern United States reflects a mixture of flood-generating mechanisms, with landfalling tropical cyclones and extratropical systems playing central roles. The authors examine the climatology of heavy rainfall and flood magnitudes for the eastern United States through analyses of long-duration records of flood peaks and maximum daily rainfall series. Spatial heterogeneities in flood peak distributions due to orographic precipitation mechanisms in mountainous terrain, coastal circulations near land–ocean boundaries, and urbanization impacts on regional climate are central elements of flood peak distributions. Lagrangian analyses of rainfall distribution and storm evolution are presented for flood events in the eastern United States and used to motivate new directions for stochastic modeling of rainfall. Tropical cyclones are an important element of the upper tail of flood peak distributions throughout the eastern United States, but their relative importance varies widely, and abruptly, in space over the region. Nonstationarities and long-term persistence of flood peak and rainfall distributions are examined from the perspective of the impacts of human-induced climate change on flood-generating mechanisms. Analyses of flood frequency for the eastern United States, which are based on observations from a dense network of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream gauging stations, provide insights into emerging problems in flood science.

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