scholarly journals The Role of High-Latitude Waves in the Intraseasonal to Seasonal Variability of Tropical Upwelling in the Brewer–Dobson Circulation

2013 ◽  
Vol 70 (6) ◽  
pp. 1631-1648 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rei Ueyama ◽  
Edwin P. Gerber ◽  
John M. Wallace ◽  
Dargan M. W. Frierson
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Planetary Waves ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Radiative Relaxation ◽  
Stratospheric Temperature

Abstract The forcing of tropical upwelling in the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) on intraseasonal to seasonal time scales is investigated in integrations of an idealized general circulation model, ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis, and lower-stratospheric temperature measurements from the (Advanced) Microwave Sounding Unit, with a focus on the extended boreal winter season. Enhanced poleward eddy heat fluxes in the high latitudes (45°–90°N) at the 100-hPa level are associated with anomalous tropical cooling and anomalous warming on the poleward side of the polar night jet at the 70-hPa level and above. In both the model and the observations, planetary waves entering the stratosphere at high latitudes propagate equatorward to the subtropics and tropics at levels above 70 hPa over an approximately 10-day period, exerting a force at sufficiently low latitudes to modulate the tropical upwelling in the upper branch of the BDC, even on time scales longer than the radiative relaxation time scale of the lower stratosphere. To the extent that they force the BDC via downward as opposed to sideways control, planetary waves originating in high latitudes contribute to the seasonally varying climatological mean and the interannual variability of tropical upwelling at the 70-hPa level and above. Their influence upon the strength of the tropical upwelling, however, diminishes rapidly with depth below 70 hPa. In particular, tropical upwelling at the cold-point tropopause, near 100 hPa, appears to be modulated by variations in the strength of the lower branch of the BDC.

scholarly journals The Building Blocks of Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Stationary Waves

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (13) ◽  
pp. 5611-5633 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chaim I. Garfinkel ◽  
Ian White ◽  
Edwin P. Gerber ◽  
Martin Jucker ◽  
Moran Erez
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Field ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Building Blocks ◽  
Stationary Wave ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Stationary Waves ◽  
Western Asia

AbstractAn intermediate-complexity moist general circulation model is used to investigate the forcing of stationary waves in the Northern Hemisphere boreal winter by land–sea contrast, horizontal heat fluxes in the ocean, and topography. The additivity of the response to these building blocks is investigated. In the Pacific sector, the stationary wave pattern is not simply the linear additive sum of the response to each forcing. In fact, over the northeast Pacific and western North America, the sum of the responses to each forcing is actually opposite to that when all three are imposed simultaneously due to nonlinear interactions among the forcings. The source of the nonlinearity is diagnosed using the zonally anomalous steady-state thermodynamic balance, and it is shown that the background-state temperature field set up by each forcing dictates the stationary wave response to the other forcings. As all three forcings considered here strongly impact the temperature field and its zonal gradients, the nonlinearity and nonadditivity in our experiments can be explained, but only in a diagnostic sense. This nonadditivity extends up to the stratosphere, and also to surface temperature, where the sum of the responses to each forcing differs from the response if all forcings are included simultaneously. Only over western Eurasia is additivity a reasonable (though not perfect) assumption; in this sector land–sea contrast is most important over Europe, while topography is most important over western Asia. In other regions, where nonadditivity is pronounced, the question of which forcing is most important is ill-posed.

scholarly journals Air, Sea, and Land Interactions of the Continental U.S. Hydroclimate

2009 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 353-373 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vasubandhu Misra ◽  
P. A. Dirmeyer
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
General Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Moisture Flux ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Moisture Flux Convergence ◽  
The Mean

Abstract Multidecadal simulations over the continental United States by an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to an ocean general circulation model is compared with that forced by observed sea surface temperature (SST). The differences in the mean and the variability of precipitation are found to be larger in the boreal summer than in the winter. This is because the mean SST differences in the two simulations are qualitatively comparable between the two seasons. The analysis shows that, in the boreal summer season, differences in moisture flux convergence resulting from changes in the circulation between the two simulations initiate and sustain changes in precipitation between them. This difference in precipitation is, however, further augmented by the contributions from land surface evaporation, resulting in larger differences of precipitation between the two simulations. However, in the boreal winter season, despite differences in the moisture flux convergence between the two model integrations, the precipitation differences over the continental United States are insignificant. It is also shown that land–atmosphere feedback is comparatively much weaker in the boreal winter season.

scholarly journals Importance of Circulation Changes to Atlantic Heat Storage Rates on Seasonal and Interannual Time Scales

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 350-362 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher G. Piecuch ◽  
Rui M. Ponte
Keyword(s):  
Heat Transport ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Heat Storage ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Surface Heat ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Meridional Heat Transport ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Circulation Changes

Abstract Ocean heat budgets and transports are diagnosed to elucidate the importance of general circulation changes to Atlantic Ocean heat storage rates. The focus is on low- and midlatitude regions and on seasonal and interannual time scales. An estimate of the ocean state over 1993–2004, produced by a coarse-resolution general circulation model fit to observations via the method of Lagrange multipliers, is used. Meridional heat transports are first decomposed into contributions from time-mean and time-variable velocity and temperature and second from zonally symmetric baroclinic (overturning, including Ekman) and zonally asymmetric (gyre and other spatially correlated) circulations. Heat storage rates are then ascribed to ocean–atmosphere heat exchanges, diffusive mixing, and advective processes related to the various components of the meridional heat transport. Results show that seasonal heat storage changes generally represent a local response to surface heat inputs, but seasonal advective changes are also important near the equator. Interannual heat storage rate anomalies are mostly due to advection in tropical regions, whereas both surface heat fluxes and advection contribute at higher latitudes. Low-latitude advection can be primarily attributed to zonally symmetric baroclinic circulations, but temperature variations and zonally asymmetric flows can contribute elsewhere. A relationship between interannual heat storage rates in the equatorial Atlantic’s top 100 m and meridional heat transport associated with the zonally symmetric baroclinic flow is observed; however, due in part to the role of shallow advective processes at these latitudes, any direct relationship between sea surface temperature variability and heat transport changes associated with intermediate or deep meridional overturning circulations is not clear.

scholarly journals Simulation of the climate impact of Mt. Pinatubo eruption using ECHAM5 – Part 2: Sensitivity to the phase of the QBO and ENSO

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 3001-3009 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. A. Thomas ◽  
M. A. Giorgetta ◽  
C. Timmreck ◽  
H.-F. Graf ◽  
G. Stenchikov
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Stratospheric Temperature ◽  
Pinatubo Eruption ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. The sensitivity of the climate impact of Mt. Pinatubo eruption in the tropics and extratropics to different QBO phases is investigated. Mt. Pinatubo erupted in June 1991 during the easterly phase of the QBO at 30 hPa and the phase change to westerly took place in August 1992. Here, the consequences are analyzed if the QBO phase had been in the opposite phase during the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. Hence, in this study, simulations are carried out using the middle atmosphere configuration of ECHAM5 general circulation model for two cases – one with the observed QBO phase and the other with the opposite QBO phase. The response of temperature and geopotential height in the lower stratosphere is evaluated for the following cases – (1) when only the effects of the QBO are included and (2) when the effects of aerosols, QBO and SSTs (combined response) are included. The tropical QBO signature in the lower stratospheric temperature is well captured in the pure QBO responses and in the combined (aerosol + ocean + QBO) responses. The response of the extratropical atmosphere to the QBO during the second winter after the eruption is captured realistically in the case of the combined forcing showing a strengthening of the polar vortex when the QBO is in its westerly phase and a warm, weak polar vortex in the easterly QBO phase. The vortex is disturbed during the first winter irrespective of the QBO phases in the combined responses and this may be due to the strong influences of El Niño during the first winters after eruption. However, the pure QBO experiments do not realistically reproduce a strengthening of the polar vortex in the westerly QBO phase, even though below normal temperatures in the high latitudes are seen in October-November-December months when the opposite QBO phase is prescribed instead of the December-January-February winter months used here for averaging.

scholarly journals Optimal Initial Perturbations for Ensemble Prediction of the Madden–Julian Oscillation during Boreal Winter

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (14) ◽  
pp. 4932-4945 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoo-Geun Ham ◽  
Siegfried Schubert ◽  
Yehui Chang
Keyword(s):  
Zonal Wind ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Random Perturbations ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Bivariate Correlation ◽  
Forecast Lead Time

Abstract An initialization strategy, tailored to the prediction of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), is evaluated using the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5), coupled general circulation model (CGCM). The approach is based on the empirical singular vectors (ESVs) of a reduced-space statistically determined linear approximation of the full nonlinear CGCM. The initial ESV, extracted using 10 years (1990–99) of boreal winter hindcast data, has zonal wind anomalies over the western Indian Ocean, while the final ESV (at a forecast lead time of 10 days) reflects a propagation of the zonal wind anomalies to the east over the Maritime Continent—an evolution that is characteristic of the MJO. A new set of ensemble hindcasts are produced for the boreal winter season from 1990 to 1999 in which the leading ESV provides the initial perturbations. The results are compared with those from a set of control hindcasts generated using random perturbations. It is shown that the ESV-based predictions have a systematically higher bivariate correlation skill in predicting the MJO compared to those using the random perturbations. Furthermore, the improvement in the skill depends on the phase of the MJO. The ESV is particularly effective in increasing the forecast skill during those phases of the MJO in which the control has low skill (with correlations increasing by as much as 0.2 at 20–25-day lead times), as well as during those times in which the MJO is weak.

scholarly journals Temperature Projections over the Indus River Basin of Pakistan Using Statistical Downscaling

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 195
Author(s):  
Muhammad Saleem Pomee ◽  
Elke Hertig
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Indus River ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Maximum Heating

We assessed maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures over Pakistan’s Indus basin during the 21st century using statistical downscaling. A particular focus was given to spatiotemporal heterogeneity, reference and General Circulation Model (GCM) uncertainties, and statistical skills of regression models using an observational profile that could significantly be improved by recent high-altitude observatories. First, we characterized the basin into homogeneous climate regions using K-means clustering. Predictors from ERA-Interim reanalysis were then used to model observed temperatures skillfully and quantify reference and GCM uncertainties. Thermodynamical (dynamical) variables mainly governed reference (GCM) uncertainties. The GCM predictors under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were used as “new” predictors in statistical models to project ensemble temperature changes. Our analysis projected non-uniform warming but could not validate elevation-dependent warming (EDW) at the basin scale. We obtained more significant warming during the westerly-dominated seasons, with maximum heating during the winter season through Tmin changes. The most striking feature is a low-warming monsoon (with the possibility of no change to slight cooling) over the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). Therefore, the likelihood of continuing the anomalous UIB behavior during the primary melt season may not entirely be ruled out at the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5.

scholarly journals A Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer HDO/H<sub>2</sub>O retrieval simulator for climate models

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 13827-13880
Author(s):  
R. D. Field ◽  
C. Risi ◽  
G. A. Schmidt ◽  
J. Worden ◽  
A. Voulgarakis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Satellite Measurement ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Accurate Comparison ◽  
Free Running ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Short Time

Abstract. Retrievals of the isotopic composition of water vapor from the Aura Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) have unique value in constraining moist processes in climate models. Accurate comparison between simulated and retrieved values requires that model profiles that would be poorly retrieved are excluded, and that an instrument operator be applied to the remaining profiles. Typically, this is done by sampling model output at satellite measurement points and using the quality flags and averaging kernels from individual retrievals at specific places and times. This approach is not reliable when the modeled meteorological conditions influencing retrieval sensitivity are different from those observed by the instrument at short time scales, which will be the case for free-running climate simulations. In this study, we describe an alternative, "categorical" approach to applying the instrument operator, implemented within the NASA GISS ModelE general circulation model. Retrieval quality and averaging kernel structure are predicted empirically from model conditions, rather than obtained from collocated satellite observations. This approach can be used for arbitrary model configurations, and requires no agreement between satellite-retrieved and modeled meteorology at short time scales. To test this approach, nudged simulations were conducted using both the retrieval-based and categorical operators. Cloud cover, surface temperature and free-tropospheric moisture content were the most important predictors of retrieval quality and averaging kernel structure. There was good agreement between the δD fields after applying the retrieval-based and more detailed categorical operators, with increases of up to 30‰ over the ocean and decreases of up to 40‰ over land relative to the raw model fields. The categorical operator performed better over the ocean than over land, and requires further refinement for use outside of the tropics. After applying the TES operator, ModelE had δD biases of −8‰ over ocean and −34‰ over land compared to TES δD, which were less than the biases using raw modeled δD fields.

scholarly journals Diagnosing Natural Variability of North Atlantic Water Masses in HadCM3

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (12) ◽  
pp. 1925-1941 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keith Haines ◽  
Chris Old
Keyword(s):  
Mixed Layer ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Surface Heat ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Mode Water ◽  
Surface Heat Fluxes ◽  
Mode Waters ◽  
Winter Mixed Layer

Abstract A study of thermally driven water mass transformations over 100 yr in the ocean component of the Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere General Circulation Model (HadCM3) is presented. The processes of surface-forced transformations, subduction and mixing, both above and below the winter mixed layer base, are quantified. Subtropical Mode Waters are formed by surface heat fluxes and subducted at more or less the same rate. However, Labrador Seawater and Nordic Seawater classes (the other main subduction classes) are primarily formed by mixing within the mixed layer with very little formation directly from surface heat fluxes. The Subpolar Mode Water classes are dominated by net obduction of water back into the mixed layer from below. Subtropical Mode Water (18°C) variability shows a cycle of formation by surface fluxes, subduction ∼2 yr later, followed by mixing with warmer waters below the winter mixed layer base during the next 3 yr, and finally obduction back into the mixed layer at 21°C, ∼5 yr after the original formation. Surface transformation of Subpolar Mode Waters, ∼12°C, are led by surface transformations of warmer waters by up to 5 yr as water is transferred from the subtropical gyre. They are also led by obduction variability from below the mixed layer, by ∼2 yr. The variability of obduction in Subpolar Mode Waters also appears to be preceded, by 3–5 yr, by variability in subduction of Labrador Sea Waters at ∼6°C. This supports a mechanism in which southward-propagating Labrador seawater anomalies below the subpolar gyre can influence the upper water circulation and obduction into the mixed layer.

First results from coupling the Parallel Ice Sheet Model with the Modular Ocean Model via an Antarctic ice-shelf cavity module

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moritz Kreuzer ◽  
Ronja Reese ◽  
Willem Huiskamp ◽  
Stefan Petri ◽  
Torsten Albrecht ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
First Results ◽  
The Antarctic

&lt;p&gt;The past and future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is largely controlled by interactions between the ocean and floating ice shelves. To investigate these interactions, coupled ocean and ice sheet model configurations are required. Previous modelling studies have mostly relied on high resolution configurations, limiting these studies to individual glaciers or regions over short time scales of decades to a few centuries. To study global and long term interactions, we developed a framework to couple the dynamic ice sheet model PISM with the global ocean general circulation model MOM5 via the ice-shelf cavity module PICO. Since ice-shelf cavities are not resolved by MOM5, but parameterized with the box model PICO, the framework allows the ice sheet and ocean model to be run at resolution of 16&amp;#8201;km and 3 degrees, respectively. We present first results from our coupled setup and discuss stability, feedbacks, and interactions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the global ocean system on millennial time scales.&lt;/p&gt;

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