scholarly journals Have Aerosols Caused the Observed Atlantic Multidecadal Variability?

2013 ◽  
Vol 70 (4) ◽  
pp. 1135-1144 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rong Zhang ◽  
Thomas L. Delworth ◽  
Rowan Sutton ◽  
Daniel L. R. Hodson ◽  
Keith W. Dixon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sea Surface Salinity ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Multidecadal Variability ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Aerosol Effects

Abstract Identifying the prime drivers of the twentieth-century multidecadal variability in the Atlantic Ocean is crucial for predicting how the Atlantic will evolve in the coming decades and the resulting broad impacts on weather and precipitation patterns around the globe. Recently, Booth et al. showed that the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2, Earth system configuration (HadGEM2-ES) closely reproduces the observed multidecadal variations of area-averaged North Atlantic sea surface temperature in the twentieth century. The multidecadal variations simulated in HadGEM2-ES are primarily driven by aerosol indirect effects that modify net surface shortwave radiation. On the basis of these results, Booth et al. concluded that aerosols are a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability. However, here it is shown that there are major discrepancies between the HadGEM2-ES simulations and observations in the North Atlantic upper-ocean heat content, in the spatial pattern of multidecadal SST changes within and outside the North Atlantic, and in the subpolar North Atlantic sea surface salinity. These discrepancies may be strongly influenced by, and indeed in large part caused by, aerosol effects. It is also shown that the aerosol effects simulated in HadGEM2-ES cannot account for the observed anticorrelation between detrended multidecadal surface and subsurface temperature variations in the tropical North Atlantic. These discrepancies cast considerable doubt on the claim that aerosol forcing drives the bulk of this multidecadal variability.

scholarly journals Modeled and Observed Multidecadal Variability in the North Atlantic Jet Stream and Its Connection to Sea Surface Temperatures

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (20) ◽  
pp. 8313-8338 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isla R. Simpson ◽  
Clara Deser ◽  
Karen A. McKinnon ◽  
Elizabeth A. Barnes
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Late Winter ◽  
Jet Stream ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Multidecadal Variability ◽  
The North ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
North Atlantic Jet

Multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic jet stream in general circulation models (GCMs) is compared with that in reanalysis products of the twentieth century. It is found that almost all models exhibit multidecadal jet stream variability that is entirely consistent with the sampling of white noise year-to-year atmospheric fluctuations. In the observed record, the variability displays a pronounced seasonality within the winter months, with greatly enhanced variability toward the late winter. This late winter variability exceeds that found in any GCM and greatly exceeds expectations from the sampling of atmospheric noise, motivating the need for an underlying explanation. The potential roles of both external forcings and internal coupled ocean–atmosphere processes are considered. While the late winter variability is not found to be closely connected with external forcing, it is found to be strongly related to the internally generated component of Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). In fact, consideration of the seasonality of the jet stream variability within the winter months reveals that the AMV is far more strongly connected to jet stream variability during March than the early winter months or the winter season as a whole. Reasoning is put forward for why this connection likely represents a driving of the jet stream variability by the SSTs, although the dynamics involved remain to be understood. This analysis reveals a fundamental mismatch between late winter jet stream variability in observations and GCMs and a potential source of long-term predictability of the late winter Atlantic atmospheric circulation.

Global Monsoon Responses to Decadal Sea Surface Temperature Variations during the Twentieth Century: Evidence from AGCM Simulations

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (22) ◽  
pp. 7675-7695 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jie Jiang ◽  
Tianjun Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Monsoon Precipitation ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract Multidecadal variations in the global land monsoon were observed during the twentieth century, with an overall increasing trend from 1901 to 1955 that was followed by a decreasing trend up to 1990, but the mechanisms governing the above changes remain inconclusive. Based on the outputs of two atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced by historical sea surface temperature (SST) covering the twentieth century, supplemented with AGCM simulations forced by idealized SST anomalies representing different conditions of the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific, evidence shows that the observed changes can be partly reproduced, particularly over the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon (NHSM) domain, demonstrating the modulation of decadal SST changes on the long-term variations in monsoon precipitation. Moisture budget analysis is performed to understand the interdecadal changes in monsoon precipitation, and the dynamic term associated with atmospheric circulation changes is found to be prominent, while the contribution of the thermodynamic term associated with humidity changes can lead to coincident wetting over the NHSM domain. The increase (decrease) in NHSM land precipitation during 1901–55 (1956–90) is associated with the strengthening (weakening) of NHSM circulation and Walker circulation. The multidecadal scale changes in atmospheric circulation are driven by SST anomalies over the North Atlantic and the Pacific. A warmer North Atlantic together with a colder eastern tropical Pacific and a warmer western subtropical Pacific can lead to a strengthened meridional gradient in mid-to-upper-tropospheric thickness and strengthened trade winds, which transport more water vapor into monsoon regions, leading to an increase in monsoon precipitation.

scholarly journals Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and the U.K. ACSIS Program

2018 ◽  
Vol 99 (2) ◽  
pp. 415-425 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. T. Sutton ◽  
G. D. McCarthy ◽  
J. Robson ◽  
B. Sinha ◽  
A. T. Archibald ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Environmental Research ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Variability ◽  
Multidecadal Variability ◽  
The North ◽  
Holistic Understanding ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) is the term used to describe the pattern of variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that is characterized by decades of basinwide warm or cool anomalies, relative to the global mean. AMV has been associated with numerous climate impacts in many regions of the world including decadal variations in temperature and rainfall patterns, hurricane activity, and sea level changes. Given its importance, understanding the physical processes that drive AMV and the extent to which its evolution is predictable is a key challenge in climate science. A leading hypothesis is that natural variations in ocean circulation control changes in ocean heat content and consequently AMV phases. However, this view has been challenged recently by claims that changing natural and anthropogenic radiative forcings are critical drivers of AMV. Others have argued that changes in ocean circulation are not required. Here, we review the leading hypotheses and mechanisms for AMV and discuss the key debates. In particular, we highlight the need for a holistic understanding of AMV. This perspective is a key motivation for a major new U.K. research program: the North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS), which brings together seven of the United Kingdom’s leading environmental research institutes to enable a broad spectrum approach to the challenges of AMV. ACSIS will deliver the first fully integrated assessment of recent decadal changes in the North Atlantic, will investigate the attribution of these changes to their proximal and ultimate causes, and will assess the potential to predict future changes.

scholarly journals Evolution of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in a Model with an Improved North Atlantic Current

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (14) ◽  
pp. 5491-5512 ◽  
Author(s):  
Annika Drews ◽  
Richard J. Greatbatch
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Heat Supply ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Variability ◽  
North Atlantic Current ◽  
Multidecadal Variability ◽  
Eastern Side ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Atlantic Current

This article investigates the dynamics and temporal evolution of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) in a coupled climate model. The model contains a correction to the North Atlantic flow field to improve the path of the North Atlantic Current, thereby alleviating the surface cold bias, a common problem with climate models, and offering a unique opportunity to study the AMV in a model. Changes in greenhouse gas forcing or aerosol loading are not considered. A striking feature of the results is the contrast between the western and eastern sides of the subpolar gyre in the model. On the western side, anomalous heat supply by the ocean plays a major role, with most of this heat being given up to the atmosphere in the warm phase, largely symmetrically about the time of the AMV maximum. By contrast, on the eastern side, the ocean anomalously gains heat from the atmosphere, with relatively little role for ocean heat supply in the years before the AMV maximum. Thereafter, the balance changes with heat now being anomalously removed from the eastern side by the ocean, leading to a reduced ocean heat content, behavior associated with the establishment of an intergyre gyre at the time of the AMV maximum. In the warm phase, melting sea ice leads to a freshening of surface waters northeast of Greenland that travel southward into the Irminger and Labrador Seas, shutting down convection and terminating the AMV warm phase.

scholarly journals Annually resolved Atlantic sea surface temperature variability over the past 2,900 y

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (44) ◽  
pp. 27171-27178
Author(s):  
Francois Lapointe ◽  
Raymond S. Bradley ◽  
Pierre Francus ◽  
Nicholas L. Balascio ◽  
Mark B. Abbott ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
High Arctic ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Multidecadal Variability ◽  
The Past ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Anomalies ◽  
Natural Climate

Global warming due to anthropogenic factors can be amplified or dampened by natural climate oscillations, especially those involving sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic which vary on a multidecadal scale (Atlantic multidecadal variability, AMV). Because the instrumental record of AMV is short, long-term behavior of AMV is unknown, but climatic teleconnections to regions beyond the North Atlantic offer the prospect of reconstructing AMV from high-resolution records elsewhere. Annually resolved titanium from an annually laminated sedimentary record from Ellesmere Island, Canada, shows that the record is strongly influenced by AMV via atmospheric circulation anomalies. Significant correlations between this High-Arctic proxy and other highly resolved Atlantic SST proxies demonstrate that it shares the multidecadal variability seen in the Atlantic. Our record provides a reconstruction of AMV for the past ∼3 millennia at an unprecedented time resolution, indicating North Atlantic SSTs were coldest from ∼1400–1800 CE, while current SSTs are the warmest in the past ∼2,900 y.

scholarly journals Spatial Optimal Interpolation of Aquarius Sea Surface Salinity: Algorithms and Implementation in the North Atlantic*

2014 ◽  
Vol 31 (7) ◽  
pp. 1583-1600 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oleg Melnichenko ◽  
Peter Hacker ◽  
Nikolai Maximenko ◽  
Gary Lagerloef ◽  
James Potemra
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Estimation Error ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sea Surface Salinity ◽  
Optimal Interpolation ◽  
Uniform Grid ◽  
Surface Salinity ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Along Track

Abstract A method is presented for mapping sea surface salinity (SSS) from Aquarius level-2 along-track data in order to improve the utility of the SSS fields at short length [O(150 km)] and time [O(1 week)] scales. The method is based on optimal interpolation (OI) and derives an SSS estimate at a grid point as a weighted sum of nearby satellite observations. The weights are optimized to minimize the estimation error variance. As an initial demonstration, the method is applied to Aquarius data in the North Atlantic. The key element of the method is that it takes into account the so-called long-wavelength errors (by analogy with altimeter applications), referred to here as interbeam and ascending/descending biases, which appear to correlate over long distances along the satellite tracks. The developed technique also includes filtering of along-track SSS data prior to OI and the use of realistic correlation scales of mesoscale SSS anomalies. All these features are shown to result in more accurate SSS maps, free from spurious structures. A trial SSS analysis is produced in the North Atlantic on a uniform grid with 0.25° resolution and a temporal resolution of one week, encompassing the period from September 2011 through August 2013. A brief statistical description, based on the comparison between SSS maps and concurrent in situ data, is used to demonstrate the utility of the OI analysis and the potential of Aquarius SSS products to document salinity structure at ~150-km length and weekly time scales.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document