scholarly journals On the Nonlinearity of Winter Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Variability

2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (1) ◽  
pp. 333-356 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Hannachi ◽  
W. Iqbal
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Empirical Orthogonal Functions ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Two Dimensional ◽  
Orthogonal Functions ◽  
Local Flow ◽  
The North

Abstract Nonlinearity in the Northern Hemisphere’s wintertime atmospheric flow is investigated from both an intermediate-complexity model of the extratropics and reanalyses. A long simulation is obtained using a three-level quasigeostrophic model on the sphere. Kernel empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs), which help delineate complex structures, are used along with the local flow tendencies. Two fixed points are obtained, which are associated with strong bimodality in two-dimensional kernel principal component (PC) space, consistent with conceptual low-order dynamics. The regimes reflect zonal and blocked flows. The analysis is then extended to ERA-40 and JRA-55 using daily sea level pressure (SLP) and geopotential heights in the stratosphere (20 hPa) and troposphere (500 hPa). In the stratosphere, trimodality is obtained, representing disturbed, displaced, and undisturbed states of the winter polar vortex. In the troposphere, the probability density functions (PDFs), for both fields, within the two-dimensional (2D) kernel EOF space are strongly bimodal. The modes correspond broadly to opposite phases of the Arctic Oscillation with a signature of the negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Over the North Atlantic–European sector, a trimodal PDF is also obtained with two strong and one weak modes. The strong modes are associated, respectively, with the north (or +NAO) and south (or −NAO) positions of the eddy-driven jet stream. The third weak mode is interpreted as a transition path between the two positions. A climate change signal is also observed in the troposphere of the winter hemisphere, resulting in an increase (a decrease) in the frequency of the polar high (low), consistent with an increase of zonal flow frequency.

scholarly journals The North Atlantic variability structure, storm tracks, and precipitation depending on the polar vortex strength

2004 ◽  
Vol 4 (5) ◽  
pp. 6127-6148 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Walter ◽  
H.-F. Graf
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
The State ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ample Evidence ◽  
Vortex Strength ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract. There is ample evidence that the state of the northern polar stratospheric vortex in boreal winter influences tropospheric variability. Therefore, the main teleconnection patterns over the North Atlantic are defined separately for winter episodes in which the zonal mean wind at 50 hPa and 65° N is above or below the critical Rossby velocity for zonal planetary wave one. It turns out that the teleconnection structure in the middle and upper troposphere differs considerably between the two regimes of the polar vortex, while this is not the case at sea level. If the "polar vortex is strong", there exists "one" meridional dipole structure of geopotential height in the upper and middle troposphere, which is situated in the central North Atlantic. If the "polar vortex is weak", there exist "two" such dipoles, one over the western and one over the eastern North Atlantic. Storm tracks (and precipitation related with these) are determined by mid and upper tropospheric conditions and we find significant differences of these parameters between the stratospheric regimes. For the strong polar vortex regime, in case of a negative upper tropospheric "NAO" index we find a blocking height situation over the Northeast Atlantic and the strongest storm track of all. It is reaching far north into the Arctic Ocean and has a secondary maximum over the Denmark Strait. Such storm track is not found in composites based on a classic NAO defined by surface pressure differences between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. Our results show that it is essential to include the state of the upper dynamic boundary conditions (the polar vortex strength) in any study of the variability over the North Atlantic. Climate forecast based solely on the forecast of a "classic NAO" and further statistical downscaling may lead to the wrong conclusions if the state of the polar vortex is not considered as well.

Understanding the role of the troposphere in the surface impact of the 2018 sudden stratospheric warming event

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan J. González-Alemán ◽  
Christian M. Grams ◽  
Blanca Ayarzagüena ◽  
Pablo Zurita-Gotor ◽  
Daniela I. V. Domeisen Domeisen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Vortex Breakdown ◽  
Rapid Change ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
The North

<p>Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are impressive phenomena that consist of a rapid stratospheric polar vortex breakdown. SSWs can have a strong impact on the tropospheric weather and are mainly associated with the negative phases of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations (AO, NAO), and with northern European cold outbreaks, thus causing high societal impact. However, the mechanisms behind the downward impact from the stratosphere are insufficiently understood, especially the role played by the troposphere. In this work, we investigate this coupling and its associated predictability limits by studying the 2018 SSW event.</p><p>By analyzing ECMWF 15-day ensemble forecasts and partitioning them into different weather regimes, we search for possible dynamical tropospheric events that may have favored the downward stratosphere-troposphere coupling during and after the SSW. It is found that two cyclogenesis events were the main drivers of the negative NAO pattern associated with a Greenland Blocking, causing a rapid change from prevailing westerlies into a blocked state in the North Atlantic region. Unless these cyclogenesis events are simulated in the forecasts, the prediction of a Greenland Blocking does not become highly prevalent. No important stratospheric differences between WRs were found. A possible oceanic contribution to this blocked state is also found. This work corroborates that individual synoptic events might constitute a “predictability barrier" for subsequent forecast lead times. It also sheds light, on the specific topic of troposphere-stratosphere coupling.</p>

scholarly journals The North Atlantic variability structure, storm tracks, and precipitation depending on the polar vortex strength

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 239-248 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Walter ◽  
H.-F. Graf
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
The State ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Vortex Strength ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract. Motivated by the strong evidence that the state of the northern hemisphere vortex in boreal winter influences tropospheric variability, teleconnection patterns over the North Atlantic are defined separately for winter episodes where the zonal wind at 50hPa and 65° N is above or below the critical velocity for vertical propagation of zonal planetary wave 1. We argue that the teleconnection structure in the middle and upper troposphere differs considerably between the two regimes of the polar vortex, while this is not the case at sea level. If the polar vortex is strong, there exists one meridional dipole structure of geopotential height in the upper and middle troposphere, which is situated in the central North Atlantic. If the polar vortex is weak, there exist two such dipoles, one over the western and one over the eastern North Atlantic. Storm tracks (and precipitation related with these) are determined by mid and upper tropospheric conditions and we find significant differences of these parameters between the stratospheric regimes. For the strong polar vortex regime, in case of a negative upper tropospheric "NAO" index we find a blocking height situation over the Northeast Atlantic and the strongest storm track of all. It is reaching far north into the Arctic Ocean and has a secondary maximum over the Denmark Strait. Such storm track is not found in composites based on a classic NAO defined by surface pressure differences between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. Our results suggest that it is important to include the state of the polar vortex strength in any study of the variability over the North Atlantic.

scholarly journals Extended-range predictability of sudden stratospheric warming events suggested by mode decomposition

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zheng Wu ◽  
Bernat Jiménez-Esteve ◽  
Raphaël de Fondeville ◽  
Enikő Székely ◽  
Guillaume Obozinski ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Empirical Orthogonal Functions ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Main Contributor ◽  
Budget Analysis ◽  
Mode Decomposition

Abstract. Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are extreme wintertime circulation events of the Arctic stratosphere that are accompanied by a breakdown of the polar vortex and are considered an important source of predictability of tropospheric weather on subseasonal to seasonal time scales over the Northern Hemisphere mid- and high- latitudes. However, SSWs themselves are difficult to forecast, with a predictability limit of around one to two weeks. The predictability limit for determining the type of event, i.e., wave-1 or wave-2 events, is even shorter. Here we analyze the dynamics of the vortex breakdown and look for early signs of the vortex deceleration process with lead times beyond the current predictability limit of SSWs. To this end, we employ a mode decomposition analysis to analyze potential vorticity (PV) equation on the 850 K isentropic surface by decomposing each term in the PV equation using the empirical orthogonal functions of the PV. The first principal component (PC) is an indicator of the strength of the polar vortex and starts to increase from around 25 days before the onset of SSWs, indicating a deceleration of the polar vortex. We then use a budget analysis based on the mode decomposition to characterize the contribution of the linear and the nonlinear PV advection terms to the rate of change (tendency) of the first PC. The linear PV advection is the main contributor to the PC tendency at 15 to 25 days before the onset of both types of SSW events. The nonlinear PV advection becomes important between 1 to 15 days before the onset of wave-2 events, while the linear PV advection continues to be the main contributor for wave-1 events. By linking the PV advection to the PV flux, we find that the linear PV flux is important for both types of SSWs from 15 to 25 days before the events but with different wave-2 spatial patterns, while the nonlinear PV flux displays a wave-3 wave pattern, which finally leads to a split of the polar vortex. The signals found here indicate that both the lead times for predicting the SSW onset and the lead times for predicting the type of the SSW event could potentially be extended beyond the current predictability limit of one to two weeks.

scholarly journals Using Bayesian Networks to investigate the influence of subseasonal Arctic variability on midlatitude North Atlantic circulation

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-46
Author(s):  
Nathanael Harwood ◽  
Richard Hall ◽  
Giorgia Di Capua ◽  
Andrew Russell ◽  
Allan Tucker
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Hidden Variables ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Arctic Warming ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

AbstractRecent enhanced warming and sea ice depletion in the Arctic have been put forward as potential drivers of severe weather in the midlatitudes. Evidence of a link between Arctic warming and midlatitude atmospheric circulation is growing, but the role of Arctic processes relative to other drivers remains unknown. Arctic-midlatitude connections in the North Atlantic region are particularly complex but important due to the frequent occurrence of severe winters in recent decades. Here, Dynamic Bayesian Networks with hidden variables are introduced to the field to assess their suitability for teleconnection analyses. Climate networks are constructed to analyse North Atlantic circulation variability at 5-day to monthly timescales during the winter months of the years 1981-2018. The inclusion of a number of Arctic, midlatitude and tropical variables allows for an investigation into the relative role of Arctic influence compared to internal atmospheric variability and other remote drivers.A robust covariability between regions of amplified Arctic warming and two definitions of midlatitude circulation is found to occur entirely within winter at submonthly timescales. Hidden variables incorporated in networks represent two distinct modes of stratospheric polar vortex variability, capturing a periodic shift between average conditions and slower anomalous flow. The influence of the Barents-Kara Seas region on the North Atlantic Oscillation is found to be the strongest link at 5- and 10-day averages, whilst the stratospheric polar vortex strongly influences jet variability on monthly timescales.

Extended-range predictability of sudden stratospheric warming events suggested by mode decomposition

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zheng Wu ◽  
Bernat Jiménez-Esteve ◽  
Raphael de Fondeville ◽  
Eniko Székely ◽  
Guillaume Obozinski ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vortex Breakdown ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Empirical Orthogonal Functions ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Dynamical Process ◽  
Orthogonal Functions ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Advection Term

<p>Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are extreme wintertime circulation events of the Arctic stratosphere that are accompanied by a breakdown of the polar vortex. The stratospheric anomalies can propagate downward to the lower stratosphere and influence the weather of the troposphere and the surface for up to two months after the onset of SSW events. Therefore, SSWs can be an important source of predictability on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mid- and high- latitudes. However, SSWs themselves are difficult to forecast, with a predictability limit of around one to two weeks. Therefore, understanding the dynamical process that leads to the vortex breakdown is crucial to improve the predictability of SSWs, and ultimately, the weather at the Earth’s surface. To this end, we employ a mode decomposition diagnosis to analyze Ertel's potential vorticity (PV) equation by decomposing each term using empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of PV to study the vortex weakening process. With this method, a principal component (PC) tendency equation can be derived, which includes the evolution of the linear and nonlinear PV advection terms and indicates how they contribute to the vortex weakening. The results show that the linear advection term is the main contributor to the increase of PC tendency in the early stage of the warming and contains distinct signals that indicate the weakening of the vortex as early as 25 days before the onset of SSWs using ERA-interim daily data. Our results indicate that both the lead times of the onset of SSW events as well as the type of the event may be extended beyond the current predictability limit, promising to provide longer lead times for the prediction of surface weather. </p>

Stratospheric modulation of cold air outbreaks and winter storms in the North Atlantic region and impacts on predictability

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hilla Afargan-Gerstman ◽  
Iuliia Polkova ◽  
Lukas Papritz ◽  
Paolo Ruggieri ◽  
Martin P. King ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Damage Potential ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Winter Storms ◽  
Cold Air ◽  
The North ◽  
Cold Air Outbreaks

<div> <p>Variability of the stratospheric polar vortex has the potential to influence surface weather by imposing negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) conditions, associated with cold air outbreaks in the Arctic and a southward shift of the extratropical storm track. In particular, the likelihood of cold temperature extremes over the ocean, known as marine cold air outbreaks (MCAOs), have been associated with a range of hazardous conditions, including strong surface winds and the occurrence of extreme cyclones known as Polar Lows (PLs), posing risks for Arctic marine activity and infrastructure. Likewise, winter storms can lead to high damage potential in the extratropics due to their associated extreme winds.</p> </div><div> <p>Skillful predictions of MCAOs and extratropical winter storms on subseasonal timescales have been linked to the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex. Using ERA-Interim reanalysis (1979-2019) and ECMWF forecasts from the S2S Prediction Project database we investigate the stratospheric influence on surface extremes such as MCAOs and high-impact winter storms. Following weak stratospheric vortex extremes, anomalous circulation patterns accompanied by increased storminess over the eastern North Atlantic are found to be strong indicators for enhanced MCAOs in high- and mid-latitudes. Understanding the role of the stratosphere in subseasonal variability and predictability of cold air outbreaks and storm tracks during winter can provide a key for a reliable forecast of severe impacts.</p> </div>

scholarly journals Change in the North Atlantic circulation associated with the mid-Pleistocene transition

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 1639-1651 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gloria M. Martin-Garcia ◽  
Francisco J. Sierro ◽  
José A. Flores ◽  
Fátima Abrantes
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Major Change ◽  
Water Masses ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
North Atlantic Current ◽  
The North ◽  
Oceanic Fronts ◽  
Surface Circulation ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract. The southwestern Iberian margin is highly sensitive to changes in the distribution of North Atlantic currents and to the position of oceanic fronts. In this work, the evolution of oceanographic parameters from 812 to 530 ka (MIS20–MIS14) is studied based on the analysis of planktonic foraminifer assemblages from site IODP-U1385 (37∘34.285′ N, 10∘7.562′ W; 2585 m b.s.l.). By comparing the obtained results with published records from other North Atlantic sites between 41 and 55∘ N, basin-wide paleoceanographic conditions are reconstructed. Variations of assemblages dwelling in different water masses indicate a major change in the general North Atlantic circulation during MIS16, coinciding with the definite establishment of the 100 ky cyclicity associated with the mid-Pleistocene transition. At the surface, this change consisted in the redistribution of water masses, with the subsequent thermal variation, and occurred linked to the northwestward migration of the Arctic Front (AF), and the increase in the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation with respect to previous glacials. During glacials prior to MIS16, the NADW formation was very weak, which drastically slowed down the surface circulation; the AF was at a southerly position and the North Atlantic Current (NAC) diverted southeastwards, developing steep south–north, and east–west, thermal gradients and blocking the arrival of warm water, with associated moisture, to high latitudes. During MIS16, the increase in the meridional overturning circulation, in combination with the northwestward AF shift, allowed the arrival of the NAC to subpolar latitudes, multiplying the moisture availability for ice-sheet growth, which could have worked as a positive feedback to prolong the glacials towards 100 ky cycles.

Planetary Wave Breaking and Tropospheric Forcing as Seen in the Stratospheric Sudden Warming of 2006

2009 ◽  
Vol 66 (2) ◽  
pp. 495-507 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lawrence Coy ◽  
Stephen Eckermann ◽  
Karl Hoppel
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Wave Breaking ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Stratospheric Sudden Warming ◽  
Advanced Level ◽  
Earth Observing System ◽  
The North ◽  
Temperature Surface

Abstract The major stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) of January 2006 is examined using meteorological fields from Goddard Earth Observing System version 4 (GEOS-4) analyses and forecast fields from the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System–Advanced Level Physics, High Altitude (NOGAPS-ALPHA). The study focuses on the upper tropospheric forcing that led to the major SSW and the vertical structure of the subtropic wave breaking near 10 hPa that moved low tropical values of potential vorticity (PV) to the pole. Results show that an eastward-propagating upper tropospheric ridge over the North Atlantic with its associated cold temperature perturbations (as manifested by high 360-K potential temperature surface perturbations) and large positive local values of meridional heat flux directly forced a change in the stratospheric polar vortex, leading to the stratospheric subtropical wave breaking and warming. Results also show that the anticyclonic development, initiated by the subtropical wave breaking and associated with the poleward advection of the low PV values, occurred over a limited altitude range of approximately 6–10 km. The authors also show that the poleward advection of this localized low-PV anomaly was associated with changes in the Eliassen–Palm (EP) flux from equatorward to poleward, suggesting an important role for Rossby wave reflection in the SSW of January 2006. Similar upper tropospheric forcing and subtropical wave breaking were found to occur prior to the major SSW of January 2003.

Meridional Tripole Mode of Winter Precipitation over the Arctic and Continental North Africa–Eurasia

2021 ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Xiaolin Liu ◽  
Jianhua Lu ◽  
Yimin Liu ◽  
Guoxiong Wu
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
North Africa ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Hadley Cell ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Positive Phase ◽  
The North ◽  
Ferrel Cell ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Westerly Jets

AbstractWintertime precipitation is vital to the growth of glaciers in the northern hemisphere. We find a tripole mode of precipitation (PTM), with each pole of the mode extending zonally over the eastern hemisphere roughly between 30°W and 120°E, and the positive/negative/positive structure for its positive phase extending meridionally from the Arctic to the continental North Africa–Eurasia. The large-scale dynamics associated with the PTM is explored. The positive phase of the PTM is associated with the negative while eastward-shifted phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and a zonal band of positive SST anomaly in the tropics, together with a narrowed Hadley cell and weakened Ferrel cell. While being north-eastward tilted and separated from their North Africa-Eurasia counterpart in the climatological mean, the upper-tropospheric westerly jets over the east Pacific and north Atlantic become extending zonally and shifting southward and hence form a circumpolar subtropical jet as a whole by connecting with the westerly jets over the North Africa-Eurasia. The enhanced zonal winds over the north Atlantic promote more synoptic-scale transient eddies which are waveguided by the jet streams. The polar vortex weakens and cold air dips southward from the North Pole. Further diagnosis of the E-vectors suggests that transient eddies have a positive feedback on the weakening of Ferrel cell. Opposite features are associated with the negative phase of the PTM. The reconstructed time series using multiple linear regression on the NAO index and the tropical SST averaged over 20°S– 20°N, can explain 62.4% of the variance of the original the original precipitation time series.

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