scholarly journals Internal Atmospheric Dynamics and Tropical Indo-Pacific Climate Variability

2005 ◽  
Vol 62 (7) ◽  
pp. 2220-2233 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ben P. Kirtman ◽  
Kathy Pegion ◽  
Saul M. Kinter
Keyword(s):  
Autoregressive Model ◽  
Null Hypothesis ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Atmospheric Dynamics ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
Tropical Eastern Pacific ◽  
Stochastic Forcing ◽  
Sst Variability

Abstract One possible explanation for tropical sea surface temperature (SST) interannual variability is that it can be accurately described by a linear autoregressive model with damped coupled feedbacks and stochastic forcing. This autoregressive model can be viewed as a “null hypothesis” for tropical SST variability. This paper advances a new coupled general circulation model (CGCM) coupling strategy, called an interactive ensemble, as a method to test this null hypothesis. The design of the interactive ensemble procedure is to reduce the stochastic variability in the air–sea fluxes applied to the ocean component while retaining the deterministic component of the coupled feedbacks. The interactive ensemble procedure uses multiple realizations of the atmospheric GCM coupled to a single realization of the ocean GCM. The ensemble mean of the atmospheric GCM fluxes are applied to the ocean model thereby significantly reducing the variability due to internal atmospheric dynamics in the air–sea fluxes. If the null hypothesis is correct, the SST variability is reduced, and the autoregressive model defines how much the variability should be reduced. To test the null hypothesis, the interactive ensemble procedure is applied to a heuristic coupled model. Then the heuristic coupled model is used to interpret the CGCM interactive ensemble results with respect to (i) SST variance and (ii) how the amplitude of atmospheric internal dynamics depends on the evolving background SST anomaly. There are significant regions where the heuristic model fails to reproduce the CGCM results, suggesting that aspects of tropical Indo-Pacific variability in the CGCM cannot be explained by damped coupled feedbacks and stochastic forcing. These regions are largely coincident with regions of large convective anomalies. Surprisingly, significant regions were found in the tropical eastern Pacific where the variability due to internal ocean dynamics cannot be neglected.

scholarly journals Predictions of Indian Ocean SST Indices with a Simple Statistical Model: A Null Hypothesis

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (18) ◽  
pp. 4930-4938 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dietmar Dommenget ◽  
Malte Jansen
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Statistical Model ◽  
General Circulation Model ◽  
Null Hypothesis ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Model Studies ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
The Indian Ocean

Abstract Several recent general circulation model studies discuss the predictability of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode, suggesting that it is predictable because of coupled ocean–atmosphere interactions in the Indian Ocean. However, it is not clear from these studies how much of the predictability is due to the response to El Niño. It is shown in this note that a simple statistical model that treats the Indian Ocean as a red noise process forced by tropical Pacific SST shows forecast skills comparable to those of recent general circulation model studies. The results also indicate that some of the eastern tropical Indian Ocean SST predictability in recent studies may indeed be beyond the skill of the simple model proposed in this note, indicating that dynamics in the Indian Ocean may have caused this improved predictability in this region. The model further indicates that the IOD index may be the least predictable index of Indian Ocean SST variability. The model is proposed as a null hypothesis for Indian Ocean SST predictions.

scholarly journals Ocean Circulation and Tropical Variability in the Coupled Model ECHAM5/MPI-OM

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (16) ◽  
pp. 3952-3972 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. H. Jungclaus ◽  
N. Keenlyside ◽  
M. Botzet ◽  
H. Haak ◽  
J.-J. Luo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Tropical Variability ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Mean State

Abstract This paper describes the mean ocean circulation and the tropical variability simulated by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). Results are presented from a version of the coupled model that served as a prototype for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) simulations. The model does not require flux adjustment to maintain a stable climate. A control simulation with present-day greenhouse gases is analyzed, and the simulation of key oceanic features, such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs), large-scale circulation, meridional heat and freshwater transports, and sea ice are compared with observations. A parameterization that accounts for the effect of ocean currents on surface wind stress is implemented in the model. The largest impact of this parameterization is in the tropical Pacific, where the mean state is significantly improved: the strength of the trade winds and the associated equatorial upwelling weaken, and there is a reduction of the model’s equatorial cold SST bias by more than 1 K. Equatorial SST variability also becomes more realistic. The strength of the variability is reduced by about 30% in the eastern equatorial Pacific and the extension of SST variability into the warm pool is significantly reduced. The dominant El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) period shifts from 3 to 4 yr. Without the parameterization an unrealistically strong westward propagation of SST anomalies is simulated. The reasons for the changes in variability are linked to changes in both the mean state and to a reduction in atmospheric sensitivity to SST changes and oceanic sensitivity to wind anomalies.

scholarly journals The Role of Ocean Dynamics in the Optimal Growth of Tropical SST Anomalies

2010 ◽  
Vol 40 (5) ◽  
pp. 983-1003 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laure Zanna ◽  
Patrick Heimbach ◽  
Andrew M. Moore ◽  
Eli Tziperman
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Initial Temperature ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Optimal Growth ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
Western Boundary ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
Tropical Sst Anomalies ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract The role of ocean dynamics in optimally exciting interannual variability of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies is investigated using an idealized-geometry ocean general circulation model. Initial temperature and salinity perturbations leading to an optimal growth of tropical SST anomalies, typically arising from the nonnormal dynamics, are evaluated. The structure of the optimal perturbations is characterized by relatively strong deep salinity anomalies near the western boundary generating a transient amplification of equatorial SST anomalies in less than four years. The associated growth mechanism is linked to the excitation of coastal and equatorial Kelvin waves near the western boundary following a rapid geostrophic adjustment owing to the optimal initial temperature and salinity perturbations. The results suggest that the nonnormality of the ocean dynamics may efficiently create large tropical SST variability on interannual time scales in the Atlantic without the participation of air–sea processes or the meridional overturning circulation. An optimal deep initial salinity perturbation of 0.1 ppt located near the western boundary can result in a tropical SST anomaly of approximately 0.45°C after nearly four years, assuming the dynamics are linear. Possible mechanisms for exciting such deep perturbations are discussed. While this study is motivated by tropical Atlantic SST variability, its relevance to other basins is not excluded. The optimal initial conditions leading to the tropical SST anomalies’ growth are obtained by solving a generalized eigenvalue problem. The evaluation of the optimals is achieved by using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) tangent linear and adjoint models as well the the Arnoldi Package (ARPACK) software for solving large-scale eigenvalue problems.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of the tropical climate to an interhemispheric thermal gradient: the role of tropical ocean dynamics

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 285-297 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefanie Talento ◽  
Marcelo Barreiro
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
Thermocline Depth ◽  
Thermal Forcing ◽  
Tropical Ocean ◽  
Slab Ocean

Abstract. This study aims to determine the role of the tropical ocean dynamics in the response of the climate to extratropical thermal forcing. We analyse and compare the outcomes of coupling an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) with two ocean models of different complexity. In the first configuration the AGCM is coupled with a slab ocean model while in the second a reduced gravity ocean (RGO) model is additionally coupled in the tropical region. We find that the imposition of extratropical thermal forcing (warming in the Northern Hemisphere and cooling in the Southern Hemisphere with zero global mean) produces, in terms of annual means, a weaker response when the RGO is coupled, thus indicating that the tropical ocean dynamics oppose the incoming remote signal. On the other hand, while the slab ocean coupling does not produce significant changes to the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) seasonal cycle, the RGO configuration generates strong warming in the central-eastern basin from April to August balanced by cooling during the rest of the year, strengthening the seasonal cycle in the eastern portion of the basin. We hypothesize that such changes are possible via the dynamical effect that zonal wind stress has on the thermocline depth. We also find that the imposed extratropical pattern affects El Niño–Southern Oscillation, weakening its amplitude and low-frequency behaviour.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of the tropical climate to an interhemispheric thermal gradient: the role of tropical ocean dynamics

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefanie Talento ◽  
Marcelo Barreiro
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
Thermocline Depth ◽  
Thermal Forcing ◽  
Tropical Ocean ◽  
Slab Ocean

Abstract. This study aims to determine the role of the tropical ocean dynamics in the response of the climate to an extratropical thermal forcing. We analyse and compare the outcomes of coupling an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) with two ocean models of different complexity. In the first configuration the AGCM is coupled with a slab ocean model while in the second a Reduced Gravity Ocean (RGO) model is additionally coupled in the tropical region. We find that the imposition of an extratropical thermal forcing (warming in the Northern Hemisphere and cooling in the Southern Hemisphere with zero global mean) produces, in terms of annual means, a weaker response when the RGO is coupled, thus indicating that the tropical ocean dynamics opposes the incoming remote signal. On the other hand, while the slab ocean coupling does not produce significant changes to the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) seasonal cycle, the RGO configuration generates a strong warming in the centre-east of the basin from April to August balanced by a cooling during the rest of the year, strengthening the seasonal cycle in the eastern portion of the basin. We hypothesize that such changes are possible via the dynamical effect that zonal wind stress has on the thermocline depth. We also find that the imposed extratropical pattern affects El Niño Southern Oscillation, weakening its amplitude and low-frequency behaviour.

scholarly journals Impact of an observational time window on coupled data assimilation: simulation with a simple climate model

2017 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 681-694 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuxin Zhao ◽  
Xiong Deng ◽  
Shaoqing Zhang ◽  
Zhengyu Liu ◽  
Chang Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Scale Interactions ◽  
Climate Signals ◽  
Coupled Data Assimilation ◽  
Climate Analysis

Abstract. Climate signals are the results of interactions of multiple timescale media such as the atmosphere and ocean in the coupled earth system. Coupled data assimilation (CDA) pursues balanced and coherent climate analysis and prediction initialization by incorporating observations from multiple media into a coupled model. In practice, an observational time window (OTW) is usually used to collect measured data for an assimilation cycle to increase observational samples that are sequentially assimilated with their original error scales. Given different timescales of characteristic variability in different media, what are the optimal OTWs for the coupled media so that climate signals can be most accurately recovered by CDA? With a simple coupled model that simulates typical scale interactions in the climate system and twin CDA experiments, we address this issue here. Results show that in each coupled medium, an optimal OTW can provide maximal observational information that best fits the characteristic variability of the medium during the data blending process. Maintaining correct scale interactions, the resulting CDA improves the analysis of climate signals greatly. These simple model results provide a guideline for when the real observations are assimilated into a coupled general circulation model for improving climate analysis and prediction initialization by accurately recovering important characteristic variability such as sub-diurnal in the atmosphere and diurnal in the ocean.

scholarly journals Contributions of Atmospheric Stochastic Forcing and Intrinsic Ocean Modes to North Atlantic Ocean Interdecadal Variability

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (6) ◽  
pp. 2351-2370 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Arzel ◽  
Thierry Huck
Keyword(s):  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Thermal Structure ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
Dimensionless Number ◽  
Stochastic Forcing ◽  
The North ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The North Atlantic

AbstractAtmospheric stochastic forcing associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and intrinsic ocean modes associated with the large-scale baroclinic instability of the North Atlantic Current (NAC) are recognized as two strong paradigms for the existence of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). The degree to which each of these factors contribute to the low-frequency variability of the North Atlantic is the central question in this paper. This issue is addressed here using an ocean general circulation model run under a wide range of background conditions extending from a supercritical regime where the oceanic variability spontaneously develops in the absence of any atmospheric noise forcing to a damped regime where the variability requires some noise to appear. The answer to the question is captured by a single dimensionless number Γ measuring the ratio between the oceanic and atmospheric contributions, as inferred from the buoyancy variance budget of the western subpolar region. Using this diagnostic, about two-thirds of the sea surface temperature (SST) variance in the damped regime is shown to originate from atmospheric stochastic forcing whereas heat content is dominated by internal ocean dynamics. Stochastic wind stress forcing is shown to substantially increase the role played by damped ocean modes in the variability. The thermal structure of the variability is shown to differ fundamentally between the supercritical and damped regimes, with abrupt modifications around the transition between the two regimes. Ocean circulation changes are further shown to be unimportant for setting the pattern of SST variability in the damped regime but are fundamental for a preferred time scale to emerge.

scholarly journals Performance Assessment of General Circulation Model in Simulating Daily Precipitation and Temperature Using Multiple Gridded Datasets

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 1793 ◽  
Author(s):  
Najeebullah Khan ◽  
Shamsuddin Shahid ◽  
Kamal Ahmed ◽  
Tarmizi Ismail ◽  
Nadeem Nawaz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Gridded Data ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
Meteorological Forcing ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Feature Selection Approach

The performance of general circulation models (GCMs) in a region are generally assessed according to their capability to simulate historical temperature and precipitation of the region. The performance of 31 GCMs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) is evaluated in this study to identify a suitable ensemble for daily maximum, minimum temperature and precipitation for Pakistan using multiple sets of gridded data, namely: Asian Precipitation–Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE), Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST), Princeton Global Meteorological Forcing (PGF) and Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) data. An entropy-based robust feature selection approach known as symmetrical uncertainty (SU) is used for the ranking of GCM. It is known from the results of this study that the spatial distribution of best-ranked GCMs varies for different sets of gridded data. The performance of GCMs is also found to vary for both temperatures and precipitation. The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, Australia (CSIRO)-Mk3-6-0 and Max Planck Institute (MPI)-ESM-LR perform well for temperature while EC-Earth and MIROC5 perform well for precipitation. A trade-off is formulated to select the common GCMs for different climatic variables and gridded data sets, which identify six GCMs, namely: ACCESS1-3, CESM1-BGC, CMCC-CM, HadGEM2-CC, HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5 for the reliable projection of temperature and precipitation of Pakistan.

scholarly journals The Effect of a Well-Resolved Stratosphere on Surface Climate: Differences between CMIP5 Simulations with High and Low Top Versions of the Met Office Climate Model

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (20) ◽  
pp. 7083-7099 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. C. Hardiman ◽  
N. Butchart ◽  
T. J. Hinton ◽  
S. M. Osprey ◽  
L. J. Gray
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
Reanalysis Dataset ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Surface Climate ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The importance of using a general circulation model that includes a well-resolved stratosphere for climate simulations, and particularly the influence this has on surface climate, is investigated. High top model simulations are run with the Met Office Unified Model for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). These simulations are compared to equivalent simulations run using a low top model differing only in vertical extent and vertical resolution above 15 km. The period 1960–2002 is analyzed and compared to observations and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis dataset. Long-term climatology, variability, and trends in surface temperature and sea ice, along with the variability of the annular mode index, are found to be insensitive to the addition of a well-resolved stratosphere. The inclusion of a well-resolved stratosphere, however, does improve the impact of atmospheric teleconnections on surface climate, in particular the response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the quasi-biennial oscillation, and midwinter stratospheric sudden warmings (i.e., zonal mean wind reversals in the middle stratosphere). Thus, including a well-represented stratosphere could improve climate simulation on intraseasonal to interannual time scales.

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