scholarly journals Mesoscale Predictability of Moist Baroclinic Waves: Convection-Permitting Experiments and Multistage Error Growth Dynamics

2007 ◽  
Vol 64 (10) ◽  
pp. 3579-3594 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fuqing Zhang ◽  
Naifang Bei ◽  
Richard Rotunno ◽  
Chris Snyder ◽  
Craig C. Epifanio
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Random Noise ◽  
Baroclinic Instability ◽  
Growth Dynamics ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Error Growth ◽  
Baroclinic Waves ◽  
Convective Scale ◽  
Shear Production

Abstract A recent study examined the predictability of an idealized baroclinic wave amplifying in a conditionally unstable atmosphere through numerical simulations with parameterized moist convection. It was demonstrated that with the effect of moisture included, the error starting from small random noise is characterized by upscale growth in the short-term (0–36 h) forecast of a growing synoptic-scale disturbance. The current study seeks to explore further the mesoscale error-growth dynamics in idealized moist baroclinic waves through convection-permitting experiments with model grid increments down to 3.3 km. These experiments suggest the following three-stage error-growth model: in the initial stage, the errors grow from small-scale convective instability and then quickly [O(1 h)] saturate at the convective scales. In the second stage, the character of the errors changes from that of convective-scale unbalanced motions to one more closely related to large-scale balanced motions. That is, some of the error from convective scales is retained in the balanced motions, while the rest is radiated away in the form of gravity waves. In the final stage, the large-scale (balanced) components of the errors grow with the background baroclinic instability. Through examination of the error-energy budget, it is found that buoyancy production due mostly to moist convection is comparable to shear production (nonlinear velocity advection). It is found that turning off latent heating not only dramatically decreases buoyancy production, but also reduces shear production to less than 20% of its original amplitude.

Inertia–gravity waves in a liquid-filled, differentially heated, rotating annulus

2015 ◽  
Vol 782 ◽  
pp. 144-177 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony Randriamampianina ◽  
Emilia Crespo del Arco
Keyword(s):  
Prandtl Number ◽  
Gravity Waves ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Baroclinic Instability ◽  
Zonal Flow ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Baroclinic Waves ◽  
Fluid Properties ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Direct numerical simulations based on high-resolution pseudospectral methods are carried out for detailed investigation into the instabilities arising in a differentially heated, rotating annulus, the baroclinic cavity. Following previous works using air (Randriamampianina et al., J. Fluid Mech., vol. 561, 2006, pp. 359–389), a liquid defined by Prandtl number $Pr=16$ is considered in order to better understand, via the Prandtl number, the effects of fluid properties on the onset of gravity waves. The computations are particularly aimed at identifying and characterizing the spontaneously emitted small-scale fluctuations occurring simultaneously with the baroclinic waves. These features have been observed as soon as the baroclinic instability sets in. A three-term decomposition is introduced to isolate the fluctuation field from the large-scale baroclinic waves and the time-averaged mean flow. Even though these fluctuations are found to propagate as packets, they remain attached to the background baroclinic waves, locally triggering spatio-temporal chaos, a behaviour not observed with the air-filled cavity. The properties of these features are analysed and discussed in the context of linear theory. Based on the Richardson number criterion, the characteristics of the generation mechanism are consistent with a localized instability of the shear zonal flow, invoking resonant over-reflection.

Dynamics and Structure of Mesoscale Error Covariance of a Winter Cyclone Estimated through Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts

2005 ◽  
Vol 133 (10) ◽  
pp. 2876-2893 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fuqing Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Short Range ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Horizontal Distance ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Error Growth ◽  
State Variables ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Error Covariance ◽  
Cross Covariance

Abstract Several sets of short-range mesoscale ensemble forecasts generated with different types of initial perturbations are used in this study to investigate the dynamics and structure of mesoscale error covariance in an intensive extratropical cyclogenesis event that occurred on 24–25 January 2000. Consistent with past predictability studies of this event, it is demonstrated that the characteristics and structure of the error growth are determined by the underlying balanced dynamics and the attendant moist convection. The initially uncorrelated errors can grow from small-scale, largely unbalanced perturbations to large-scale, quasi-balanced structured disturbances within 12–24 h. Maximum error growth occurred in the vicinity of upper-level and surface zones with the strongest potential vorticity (PV) gradient over the area of active moist convection. The structure of mesoscale error covariance estimated from these short-term ensemble forecasts is subsequently flow dependent and highly anisotropic, which is also ultimately determined by the underlying governing dynamics and associated error growth. Significant spatial and cross covariance (correlation) exists between different state variables with a horizontal distance as large as 1000 km and across all vertical layers. Qualitatively similar error covariance structure is estimated from different ensemble forecasts initialized with different perturbations.

Intrinsic versus Practical Limits of Atmospheric Predictability and the Significance of the Butterfly Effect

2016 ◽  
Vol 73 (3) ◽  
pp. 1419-1438 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Qiang Sun ◽  
Fuqing Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Initial Perturbation ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Initial Condition ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Error Growth ◽  
Initial Error ◽  
Baroclinic Waves ◽  
Atmospheric Predictability ◽  
Butterfly Effect

Abstract Limits of intrinsic versus practical predictability are studied through examining multiscale error growth dynamics in idealized baroclinic waves with varying degrees of convective instabilities. In the dry experiment free of moist convection, error growth is controlled primarily by baroclinic instability under which forecast accuracy is inversely proportional to the amplitude of the baroclinically unstable initial-condition error (thus the prediction can be continuously improved without limit through reducing the initial error). Under the moist environment with strong convective instability, rapid upscale growth from moist convection leads to the forecast error being increasingly less sensitive to the scale and amplitude of the initial perturbations when the initial-error amplitude is getting smaller; these diminishing returns may ultimately impose a finite-time barrier to the forecast accuracy (limit of intrinsic predictability and the so-called “butterfly effect”). However, if the initial perturbation is sufficiently large in scale and amplitude (as for most current-day operational models), the baroclinic growth of large-scale finite-amplitude initial error will control the forecast accuracy for both dry and moist baroclinic waves; forecast accuracy can be improved (thus the limit of practical predictability can be extended) through the reduction of initial-condition errors, especially those at larger scales. Regardless of the initial-perturbation scales and amplitude, the error spectrum will adjust toward the slope of the background flow. Inclusion of strong moist convection changes the mesoscale kinetic energy spectrum slope from −3 to ~−5/3. This change further highlights the importance of convection and the relevance of the butterfly effect to both the intrinsic and practical limits of atmospheric predictability, especially at meso- and convective scales.

Interferometric imaging condition for wave-equation migration

Geophysics ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 73 (2) ◽  
pp. S47-S61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Sava ◽  
Oleg Poliannikov
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Wigner Distribution ◽  
Random Noise ◽  
Velocity Model ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Interferometric Imaging ◽  
Imaging Data ◽  
Imaging Condition ◽  
Velocity Models

The fidelity of depth seismic imaging depends on the accuracy of the velocity models used for wavefield reconstruction. Models can be decomposed in two components, corresponding to large-scale and small-scale variations. In practice, the large-scale velocity model component can be estimated with high accuracy using repeated migration/tomography cycles, but the small-scale component cannot. When the earth has significant small-scale velocity components, wavefield reconstruction does not completely describe the recorded data, and migrated images are perturbed by artifacts. There are two possible ways to address this problem: (1) improve wavefield reconstruction by estimating more accurate velocity models and image using conventional techniques (e.g., wavefield crosscorrelation) or (2) reconstruct wavefields with conventional methods using the known background velocity model but improve the imaging condition to alleviate the artifacts caused by the imprecise reconstruction. Wedescribe the unknown component of the velocity model as a random function with local spatial correlations. Imaging data perturbed by such random variations is characterized by statistical instability, i.e., various wavefield components image at wrong locations that depend on the actual realization of the random model. Statistical stability can be achieved by preprocessing the reconstructed wavefields prior to the imaging condition. We use Wigner distribution functions to attenuate the random noise present in the reconstructed wavefields, parameterized as a function of image coordinates. Wavefield filtering using Wigner distribution functions and conventional imaging can be lumped together into a new form of imaging condition that we call an interferometric imaging condition because of its similarity to concepts from recent work on interferometry. The interferometric imaging condition can be formulated both for zero-offset and for multioffset data, leading to robust, efficient imaging procedures that effectively attenuate imaging artifacts caused by unknown velocity models.

scholarly journals Large-scale vortices in rapidly rotating Rayleigh–Bénard convection

2014 ◽  
Vol 758 ◽  
pp. 407-435 ◽  
Author(s):  
Céline Guervilly ◽  
David W. Hughes ◽  
Chris A. Jones
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Reynolds Numbers ◽  
Spectral Space ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Convective Velocity ◽  
Onset Of Convection ◽  
Convective Structures ◽  
Convective Scale ◽  
Domain Of Existence ◽  
Convective Motions

AbstractUsing numerical simulations of rapidly rotating Boussinesq convection in a Cartesian box, we study the formation of long-lived, large-scale, depth-invariant coherent structures. These structures, which consist of concentrated cyclones, grow to the horizontal scale of the box, with velocities significantly larger than the convective motions. We vary the rotation rate, the thermal driving and the aspect ratio in order to determine the domain of existence of these large-scale vortices (LSV). We find that two conditions are required for their formation. First, the Rayleigh number, a measure of the thermal driving, must be several times its value at the linear onset of convection; this corresponds to Reynolds numbers, based on the convective velocity and the box depth, $\def \xmlpi #1{}\def \mathsfbi #1{\boldsymbol {\mathsf {#1}}}\let \le =\leqslant \let \leq =\leqslant \let \ge =\geqslant \let \geq =\geqslant \def \Pr {\mathit {Pr}}\def \Fr {\mathit {Fr}}\def \Rey {\mathit {Re}}{\gtrsim }100$. Second, the rotational constraint on the convective structures must be strong. This requires that the local Rossby number, based on the convective velocity and the horizontal convective scale, ${\lesssim }0.15$. Simulations in which certain wavenumbers are artificially suppressed in spectral space suggest that the LSV are produced by the interactions of small-scale, depth-dependent convective motions. The presence of LSV significantly reduces the efficiency of the convective heat transport.

scholarly journals The Effect of Explicit Convection on Couplings between Rainfall, Humidity, and Ascent over Africa under Climate Change

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (19) ◽  
pp. 8315-8337 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lawrence S. Jackson ◽  
Declan L. Finney ◽  
Elizabeth J. Kendon ◽  
John H. Marsham ◽  
Douglas J. Parker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Hadley Circulation ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Rain Belt ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Convective Scale ◽  
Mean Climate

AbstractThe Hadley circulation and tropical rain belt are dominant features of African climate. Moist convection provides ascent within the rain belt, but must be parameterized in climate models, limiting predictions. Here, we use a pan-African convection-permitting model (CPM), alongside a parameterized convection model (PCM), to analyze how explicit convection affects the rain belt under climate change. Regarding changes in mean climate, both models project an increase in total column water (TCW), a widespread increase in rainfall, and slowdown of subtropical descent. Regional climate changes are similar for annual mean rainfall but regional changes of ascent typically strengthen less or weaken more in the CPM. Over a land-only meridional transect of the rain belt, the CPM mean rainfall increases less than in the PCM (5% vs 14%) but mean vertical velocity at 500 hPa weakens more (17% vs 10%). These changes mask more fundamental changes in underlying distributions. The decrease in 3-hourly rain frequency and shift from lighter to heavier rainfall are more pronounced in the CPM and accompanied by a shift from weak to strong updrafts with the enhancement of heavy rainfall largely due to these dynamic changes. The CPM has stronger coupling between intense rainfall and higher TCW. This yields a greater increase in rainfall contribution from events with greater TCW, with more rainfall for a given large-scale ascent, and so favors slowing of that ascent. These findings highlight connections between the convective-scale and larger-scale flows and emphasize that limitations of parameterized convection have major implications for planning adaptation to climate change.

Nonlinear dynamics over rough topography: homogeneous and stratified quasi-geostrophic theory

2003 ◽  
Vol 474 ◽  
pp. 299-318 ◽  
Author(s):  
JACQUES VANNESTE
Keyword(s):  
Nonlinear Dynamics ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Baroclinic Instability ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Stratified Fluids ◽  
Homogeneous Case ◽  
Bottom Boundary ◽  
One Dimensional ◽  
Averaged Equations ◽  
Large Scale Flow

The weakly nonlinear dynamics of quasi-geostrophic flows over a one-dimensional, periodic or random, small-scale topography is investigated using an asymptotic approach. Averaged (or homogenized) evolution equations which account for the flow–topography interaction are derived for both homogeneous and continuously stratified quasi-geostrophic fluids. The scaling assumptions are detailed in each case; for stratified fluids, they imply that the direct influence of the topography is confined within a thin bottom boundary layer, so that it is through a new bottom boundary condition that the topography affects the large-scale flow. For both homogeneous and stratified fluids, a single scalar function entirely encapsulates the properties of the topography that are relevant to the large-scale flow: it is the correlation function of the topographic height in the homogeneous case, and a linear transform thereof in the continuously stratified case.Some properties of the averaged equations are discussed. Explicit nonlinear solutions in the form of one-dimensional travelling waves can be found. In the homogeneous case, previously studied by Volosov, they obey a second-order differential equation; in the stratified case on which we focus they obey a nonlinear pseudodifferential equation, which reduces to the Peierls–Nabarro equation for sinusoidal topography. The known solutions to this equation provide examples of nonlinear periodic and solitary waves in continuously stratified fluid over topography.The influence of bottom topography on large-scale baroclinic instability is also examined using the averaged equations: they allow a straightforward extension of Eady's model which demonstrates the stabilizing effect of topography on baroclinic instability.

scholarly journals Experiments on transitions of baroclinic waves in a differentially heated rotating annulus

2005 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1033-1041 ◽  
Author(s):  
Th. von Larcher ◽  
C. Egbers
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Axisymmetric Flow ◽  
Vertical Axis ◽  
Surface Flow ◽  
Working Fluid ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Complex Flows ◽  
Wave Regime ◽  
Baroclinic Waves ◽  
Dependent Behaviour

Abstract. Experiments of baroclinic waves in a rotating, baroclinic annulus of fluid are presented for two gap widths. The apparatus is a differentially heated cylindrical gap, rotated around its vertical axis of symmetry, cooled from within, with a free surface, and filled with de-ionised water as working fluid. The surface flow was observed with visualisation technique while thermographic measurements gave a detailed understanding of the temperature distribution and its time-dependent behaviour. We focus in particular on transitions between different flow regimes. Using a wide gap, the first transition from axisymmetric flow to the regular wave regime was characterised by complex flows. The transition to irregular flows was smooth, where a coexistence of the large-scale jet-stream and small-scale vortices was observed. Furthermore, temperature measurements showed a repetitive separation of cold vortices from the inner wall. Experiments using a narrow gap showed no complex flows but strong hysteresis in the steady wave regime, with up to five different azimuthal wave modes as potential steady and stable solutions.

scholarly journals Synoptic Responses to Mountain Gravity Waves Encountering Directional Critical Levels

2007 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
pp. 828-848 ◽  
Author(s):  
Armel Martin ◽  
François Lott
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Waves ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Baroclinic Instability ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
Critical Levels ◽  
Sensitivity Tests ◽  
Large Scale Flow

Abstract A heuristic model is used to study the synoptic response to mountain gravity waves (GWs) absorbed at directional critical levels. The model is a semigeostrophic version of the Eady model for baroclinic instability adapted by Smith to study lee cyclogenesis. The GWs exert a force on the large-scale flow where they encounter directional critical levels. This force is taken into account in the model herein and produces potential vorticity (PV) anomalies in the midtroposphere. First, the authors consider the case of an idealized mountain range such that the orographic variance is well separated between small- and large-scale contributions. In the absence of tropopause, the PV produced by the GW force has a surface impact that is significant compared to the surface response due to the large scales. For a cold front, the GW force produces a trough over the mountain and a larger-amplitude ridge immediately downstream. It opposes somehow to the response due to the large scales of the mountain range, which is anticyclonic aloft and cyclonic downstream. For a warm front, the GW force produces a ridge over the mountain and a trough downstream; hence it reinforces the response due to the large scales. Second, the robustness of the previous results is verified by a series of sensitivity tests. The authors change the specifications of the mountain range and of the background flow. They also repeat some experiments by including baroclinic instabilities, or by using the quasigeostrophic approximation. Finally, they consider the case of a small-scale orographic spectrum representative of the Alps. The significance of the results is discussed in the context of GW parameterization in the general circulation models. The results may also help to interpret the complex PV structures occurring when mountain gravity waves break in a baroclinic environment.

scholarly journals Mesoscale Moisture Transport by the Low-Level Jet during the IHOP Field Experiment

2008 ◽  
Vol 136 (10) ◽  
pp. 3781-3795 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward I. Tollerud ◽  
Fernando Caracena ◽  
Steven E. Koch ◽  
Brian D. Jamison ◽  
R. Michael Hardesty ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Cross Sections ◽  
Moisture Transport ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Scale ◽  
Low Level Jet

Previous studies of the low-level jet (LLJ) over the central Great Plains of the United States have been unable to determine the role that mesoscale and smaller circulations play in the transport of moisture. To address this issue, two aircraft missions during the International H2O Project (IHOP_2002) were designed to observe closely a well-developed LLJ over the Great Plains (primarily Oklahoma and Kansas) with multiple observation platforms. In addition to standard operational platforms (most important, radiosondes and profilers) to provide the large-scale setting, dropsondes released from the aircraft at 55-km intervals and a pair of onboard lidar instruments—High Resolution Doppler Lidar (HRDL) for wind and differential absorption lidar (DIAL) for moisture—observed the moisture transport in the LLJ at greater resolution. Using these observations, the authors describe the multiscalar structure of the LLJ and then focus attention on the bulk properties and effects of scales of motion by computing moisture fluxes through cross sections that bracket the LLJ. From these computations, the Reynolds averages within the cross sections can be computed. This allow an estimate to be made of the bulk effect of integrated estimates of the contribution of small-scale (mesoscale to convective scale) circulations to the overall transport. The performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model in forecasting the intensity and evolution of the LLJ for this case is briefly examined.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document