Seasonal Cycle Shifts in Hydroclimatology over the Western United States

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 372-384 ◽  
Author(s):  
Satish Kumar Regonda ◽  
Balaji Rajagopalan ◽  
Martyn Clark ◽  
John Pitlick
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
Northwest Region

Abstract Analyses of streamflow, snow mass temperature, and precipitation in snowmelt-dominated river basins in the western United States indicate an advance in the timing of peak spring season flows over the past 50 years. Warm temperature spells in spring have occurred much earlier in recent years, which explains in part the trend in the timing of the spring peak flow. In addition, a decrease in snow water equivalent and a general increase in winter precipitation are evident for many stations in the western United States. It appears that in recent decades more of the precipitation is coming as rain rather than snow. The trends are strongest at lower elevations and in the Pacific Northwest region, where winter temperatures are closer to the melting point; it appears that in this region in particular, modest shifts in temperature are capable of forcing large shifts in basin hydrologic response. It is speculated that these trends could be potentially a manifestation of the general global warming trend in recent decades and also due to enhanced ENSO activity. The observed trends in hydroclimatology over the western United States can have significant impacts on water resources planning and management.

Interannual Variability of the Cyclonic Activity along the U.S. Pacific Coast: Influences on the Characteristics of Winter Precipitation in the Western United States

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (21) ◽  
pp. 5732-5747 ◽  
Author(s):  
Boksoon Myoung ◽  
Yi Deng
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Pacific Coast ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Cyclonic Activity ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The U.S

Abstract This study examines the observed interannual variability of the cyclonic activity along the U.S. Pacific coast and quantifies its impact on the characteristics of both the winter total and extreme precipitation in the western United States. A cyclonic activity function (CAF) was derived from a dataset of objectively identified cyclone tracks in 27 winters (1979/80–2005/06). The leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF1) of the CAF was found to be responsible for the EOF1 of the winter precipitation in the western United States, which is a monopole mode centered over the Pacific Northwest and northern California. On the other hand, the EOF2 of the CAF contributes to the EOF2 of the winter precipitation, which indicates that above-normal precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and its immediate inland regions tends to be accompanied by below-normal precipitation in California and the southwestern United States and vice versa. The first two EOFs of CAF (precipitation) account for about 70% (78%) of the total interannual variance of CAF (precipitation). The second EOF modes of both the CAF and precipitation are significantly linked to the ENSO signal on interannual time scales. A composite analysis further reveals that the leading CAF modes increase (decrease) the winter total precipitation by increasing (decreasing) both the number of rainy days per winter and the extremeness of precipitation. The latter was quantified in terms of the 95th percentile of the daily rain rate and the probability of precipitation being heavy given a rainy day. The implications of the leading CAF modes for the water resources and the occurrence of extreme hydrologic events in the western United States, as well as their dynamical linkages to the Pacific storm track and various atmospheric low-frequency modes (i.e., teleconnection patterns), are also discussed.

scholarly journals Variability Common to First Leaf Dates and Snowpack in the Western Conterminous United States

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (26) ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory J. McCabe ◽  
Julio L. Betancourt ◽  
Gregory T. Pederson ◽  
Mark D. Schwartz
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Late Winter ◽  
Modes Of Variability ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
Value Decomposition

Abstract Singular value decomposition is used to identify the common variability in first leaf dates (FLDs) and 1 April snow water equivalent (SWE) for the western United States during the period 1900–2012. Results indicate two modes of joint variability that explain 57% of the variability in FLD and 69% of the variability in SWE. The first mode of joint variability is related to widespread late winter–spring warming or cooling across the entire west. The second mode can be described as a north–south dipole in temperature for FLD, as well as in cool season temperature and precipitation for SWE, that is closely correlated to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Additionally, both modes of variability indicate a relation with the Pacific–North American atmospheric pattern. These results indicate that there is a substantial amount of common variance in FLD and SWE that is related to large-scale modes of climate variability.

Three Recent Flavors of Drought in the Pacific Northwest

2010 ◽  
Vol 49 (9) ◽  
pp. 2058-2068 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karin A. Bumbaco ◽  
Philip W. Mote
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Hydropower Generation ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Hydrologic Impacts ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract In common with much of the western United States, the Pacific Northwest (defined in this paper as Washington and Oregon) has experienced an unusual number of droughts in the past decade. This paper describes three of these droughts in terms of the precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture anomalies, and discusses different drought impacts experienced in the Pacific Northwest (PNW). For the first drought, in 2001, low winter precipitation in the PNW produced very low streamflow that primarily affected farmers and hydropower generation. For the second, in 2003, low summer precipitation in Washington (WA), and low summer precipitation and a warm winter in Oregon (OR) primarily affected streamflow and forests. For the last, in 2005, a lack of snowpack due to warm temperatures during significant winter precipitation events in WA, and low winter precipitation in OR, had a variety of different agricultural and hydrologic impacts. Although the proximal causes of droughts are easily quantified, the ultimate causes are not as clear. Better precipitation observations in the PNW are required to provide timely monitoring of conditions leading to droughts to improve prediction in the future.

scholarly journals Recent Declines in Western U.S. Snowpack in the Context of Twentieth-Century Climate Variability

2009 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory J. McCabe ◽  
David M. Wolock
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Decadal Scale

Abstract A monthly snow accumulation and melt model was used with monthly Precipitation-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) temperature and precipitation data to generate time series of 1 April snow water equivalent (SWE) for 1900 through 2008 in the western United States. Averaged across the western United States, SWE generally was higher than long-term (1900–2008) average conditions during the periods 1900–25, 1944–55, and 1966–82; SWE was lower than long-term average conditions during the periods 1926–43, 1957–65, and 1984–2008. During the period 1900–2008, the temporal pattern in winter precipitation exhibited wetter-than-average and drier-than-average decadal-scale periods with no long-term increasing or decreasing trend. Winter temperature generally was below average from 1900 to the mid-1950s, close to average from the mid-1950s to the mid-1980s, and above average from the mid-1980s to 2008. In general, periods of higher-than-average SWE have been associated with higher precipitation and lower temperature. Since about 1980, western U.S. winter temperatures have been consistently higher than long-term average values, and the resultant lower-than-average SWE values have been only partially offset by periods of higher-than-average precipitation. The post-1980 lower-than-average SWE conditions in the western United States are unprecedented within the context of twentieth-century climate and estimated SWE.

scholarly journals Influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on Winter Precipitation and Drought during Years of Neutral ENSO in the Western United States

2007 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 116-124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory B. Goodrich
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Pacific Decadal Oscillation ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Area Of Influence ◽  
Hydroclimatic Variables

Abstract The influence of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) on important hydroclimatic variables during years of neutral ENSO for 84 climate divisions in the western United States is analyzed from 1925 to 1998. When the 34 neutral ENSO years are split by cold (12 yr) and warm (22 yr) PDOs, the resulting winter precipitation patterns are spatially similar to those that occur during years of La Niña–cold PDO and, to a lesser extent, years of El Niño–warm PDO, respectively, although the characteristic ENSO dipole is not evident. The PDO influence is similar when the winter Palmer drought severity index is analyzed, although the core area of influence moves from the Southwest to the northern Rockies. Correlations between Niño-3.4 SSTs and the hydroclimatic variables reverse sign when the neutral ENSO years are split by PDO phase. The greatest difference between correlations occurs in the characteristic dipole between the Pacific Northwest and the desert Southwest. Since seasonal forecast guidance based on ENSO conditions in the tropical Pacific often yields a forecast of “equal chances” during years of neutral ENSO, forecasters may be able to improve their forecasts for the southwestern United States depending on if the PDO is known to be in the cold (drier than normal) or warm (wetter than normal) phase. However, this can be difficult to implement considering the current uncertainty of the phase of the PDO.

Identification of Resistance to Powdery Mildew in Publicly Available Male Hop Germplasm

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 258-264
Author(s):  
David H. Gent ◽  
Briana J. Claassen ◽  
Megan C. Twomey ◽  
Sierra N. Wolfenbarger
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Powdery Mildew ◽  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Western United States ◽  
R Genes ◽  
Sources Of Resistance ◽  
Department Of Agriculture ◽  
Breeding Programs ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The U.S

Powdery mildew (caused by Podosphaera macularis) is one of the most important diseases of hop in the western United States. Strains of the fungus virulent on cultivars possessing the resistance factor termed R6 and the cultivar Cascade have become widespread in the Pacific Northwestern United States, the primary hop producing region in the country, rendering most cultivars grown susceptible to the disease at some level. In an effort to identify potential sources of resistance in extant germplasm, 136 male accessions of hop contained in the U.S. Department of Agriculture collection were screened under controlled conditions. Iterative inoculations with three isolates of P. macularis with varying race identified 23 (16.9%) accessions with apparent resistance to all known races of the pathogen present in the Pacific Northwest. Of the 23 accessions, 12 were resistant when inoculated with three additional isolates obtained from Europe that possess novel virulences. The nature of resistance in these individuals is unclear but does not appear to be based on known R genes. Identification of possible novel sources of resistance to powdery mildew will be useful to hop breeding programs in the western United States and elsewhere.

scholarly journals Seasonal Precipitation Influences Streamflow Vulnerability to the 2015 Drought in the Western United States

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (7) ◽  
pp. 1261-1274
Author(s):  
Christopher P. Konrad
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Order Model ◽  
First Order ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Critical Issues ◽  
Desert Southwest ◽  
Normative Models

Abstract Streamflow was exceptionally low in the spring and summer of 2015 across much of the western United States because of a regional drought that exploited the sensitivity of both snow- and rain-dominant rivers. Streamflow during 2015 was examined at 324 gauges in the region to assess its response to the amount, form, and seasonal timing of precipitation and the viability of using spatially aggregated, normative models to assess streamflow vulnerability to drought. Seasonal rain and spring snowmelt had the strongest effects on runoff during the same season, but their effects persisted into subsequent seasons as well. Below-normal runoff in the spring of 2015 was pervasive across the region, while distinct seasonal responses were evident in different hydroclimatic settings: January–March (winter) runoff was above normal in most snow-dominant rivers and runoff in all seasons was above normal for much of the desert Southwest. Summer precipitation contributed to summer runoff in both the Pacific Northwest and desert Southwest. A first-order model that presumes runoff is a constant fraction of precipitation (the precipitation elasticity of runoff, E = 1) could be used for assessing and forecasting runoff responses to precipitation deficits across the region, but runoff generally is more vulnerable to drought (E > 1) than predicted by a first-order model. Uncertainty in spring and summer precipitation forecasts remain critical issues for forecasting and predicting summer streamflow vulnerability to drought across much of the western United States.

Avalanche Fatalities during Atmospheric River Events in the Western United States

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 1359-1374 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin J. Hatchett ◽  
Susan Burak ◽  
Jonathan J. Rutz ◽  
Nina S. Oakley ◽  
Edward H. Bair ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Water Vapor ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Vapor Transport ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Snow Avalanche ◽  
Water Vapor Transport ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
Avalanche Forecasting ◽  
Snow Water

Abstract The occurrence of atmospheric rivers (ARs) in association with avalanche fatalities is evaluated in the conterminous western United States between 1998 and 2014 using archived avalanche reports, atmospheric reanalysis products, an existing AR catalog, and weather station observations. AR conditions were present during or preceding 105 unique avalanche incidents resulting in 123 fatalities, thus comprising 31% of western U.S. avalanche fatalities. Coastal snow avalanche climates had the highest percentage of avalanche fatalities coinciding with AR conditions (31%–65%), followed by intermountain (25%–46%) and continental snow avalanche climates (<25%). Ratios of avalanche deaths during AR conditions to total AR days increased with distance from the coast. Frequent heavy to extreme precipitation (85th–99th percentile) during ARs favored critical snowpack loading rates with mean snow water equivalent increases of 46 mm. Results demonstrate that there exists regional consistency between snow avalanche climates, derived AR contributions to cool season precipitation, and percentages of avalanche fatalities during ARs. The intensity of water vapor transport and topographic corridors favoring inland water vapor transport may be used to help identify periods of increased avalanche hazard in intermountain and continental snow avalanche climates prior to AR landfall. Several recently developed AR forecast tools applicable to avalanche forecasting are highlighted.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Snowpack Density in the Mountainous Regions of the Western United States

2008 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 1416-1426 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naoki Mizukami ◽  
Sanja Perica
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Snow Depth ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Densification Rate ◽  
Snow Density ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Spatiotemporal Characteristics ◽  
Snow Water

Abstract Snow density is calculated as a ratio of snow water equivalent to snow depth. Until the late 1990s, there were no continuous simultaneous measurements of snow water equivalent and snow depth covering large areas. Because of that, spatiotemporal characteristics of snowpack density could not be well described. Since then, the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) has been collecting both types of data daily throughout the winter season at snowpack telemetry (SNOTEL) sites located in the mountainous areas of the western United States. This new dataset provided an opportunity to examine the spatiotemporal characteristics of snowpack density. The analysis of approximately seven years of data showed that at a given location and throughout the winter season, year-to-year snowpack density changes are significantly smaller than corresponding snow depth and snow water equivalent changes. As a result, reliable climatological estimates of snow density could be obtained from relatively short records. Snow density magnitudes and densification rates (i.e., rates at which snow densities change in time) were found to be location dependent. During early and midwinter, the densification rate is correlated with density. Starting in early or mid-March, however, snowpack density increases by approximately 2.0 kg m−3 day−1 regardless of location. Cluster analysis was used to obtain qualitative information on spatial patterns of snowpack density and densification rates. Four clusters were identified, each with a distinct density magnitude and densification rate. The most significant physiographic factor that discriminates between clusters was proximity to a large water body. Within individual mountain ranges, snowpack density characteristics were primarily dependent on elevation.

scholarly journals SnowClim v1.0: High-resolution snow model and data for the western United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abby C. Lute ◽  
John Abatzoglou ◽  
Timothy Link
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
High Spatial Resolution ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Western Us ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
Snow Model

Abstract. Seasonal snowpack dynamics shape the biophysical and societal characteristics of many global regions. However, snowpack accumulation and duration have generally declined in recent decades largely due to anthropogenic climate change. Mechanistic understanding of snowpack spatiotemporal heterogeneity and climate change impacts will benefit from snow data products that are based on physical principles, that are simulated at high spatial resolution, and that cover large geographic domains. Existing datasets do not meet these requirements, hindering our ability to understand both contemporary and changing snow regimes and to develop adaptation strategies in regions where snowpack patterns and processes are important components of Earth systems. We developed a computationally efficient physics-based snow model, SnowClim, that can be run in the cloud. The model was evaluated and calibrated at Snowpack Telemetry sites across the western United States (US), achieving a site-median root mean square error for daily snow water equivalent of 62 mm, bias in peak snow water equivalent of −9.6 mm, and bias in snow duration of 1.2 days when run hourly. Positive biases were found at sites with mean winter temperature above freezing where the estimation of precipitation phase is prone to errors. The model was applied to the western US using newly developed forcing data created by statistically downscaling pre-industrial, historical, and pseudo-global warming climate data from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The resulting product is the SnowClim dataset, a suite of summary climate and snow metrics for the western US at 210 m spatial resolution (Lute et al., 2021). The physical basis, large extent, and high spatial resolution of this dataset will enable novel analyses of changing hydroclimate and its implications for natural and human systems.

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