scholarly journals Forecast Skill and Predictability of Observed Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (14) ◽  
pp. 5047-5056 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laure Zanna
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Model ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Optimal Growth ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Noise Model ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
Low Frequency Mode ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract An empirical statistical model is constructed to assess the forecast skill and the linear predictability of Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) variability. Linear inverse modeling (LIM) is used to build a dynamically based statistical model using observed Atlantic SST anomalies between latitudes 20°S and 66°N from 1870 to 2009. LIM allows one to fit a multivariate red-noise model to the observed annually averaged SST anomalies and to test it. Forecast skill is assessed and is shown to be O(3–5 yr). After a few years, the skill is greatly reduced, especially in the subpolar region. In the stable dynamical system determined by LIM, skill of annual average SST anomalies arises from four damped eigenmodes. The four eigenmodes are shown to be relevant in particular for the optimal growth events of SST variance, with a pattern reminiscent of the low-frequency mode of variability, and in general for the predictability and variability of Atlantic SSTs on interannual time scales. LIM might serve as a useful benchmark for interannual and decadal forecasts of SST anomalies that are based on numerical models.

scholarly journals On the Observed Relationships between Variability in Gulf Stream Sea Surface Temperatures and the Atmospheric Circulation over the North Atlantic

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (10) ◽  
pp. 3719-3730 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samantha M. Wills ◽  
David W. J. Thompson ◽  
Laura M. Ciasto
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Gulf Stream ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Western Boundary ◽  
Atmospheric Response ◽  
Decomposition Approach ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract The advent of increasingly high-resolution satellite observations and numerical models has led to a series of advances in understanding the role of midlatitude sea surface temperature (SST) in climate variability, especially near western boundary currents (WBC). Observational analyses suggest that ocean dynamics play a central role in driving interannual SST variability over the Kuroshio–Oyashio and Gulf Stream extensions. Numerical experiments suggest that variations in the SST field within these WBC regions may have a much more pronounced influence on the atmospheric circulation than previously thought. In this study, the authors examine the observational support for (or against) a robust atmospheric response to midlatitude SST variability in the Gulf Stream extension. To do so, they apply lead–lag analysis based on daily mean data to assess the evidence for two-way coupling between SST anomalies and the atmospheric circulation on transient time scales, building off of previous studies that have utilized weekly data. A novel decomposition approach is employed to demonstrate that atmospheric circulation anomalies over the Gulf Stream extension can be separated into two distinct patterns of midlatitude atmosphere–ocean interaction: 1) a pattern that peaks 2–3 weeks before the largest SST anomalies in the Gulf Stream extension, which can be viewed as the “atmospheric forcing,” and 2) a pattern that peaks several weeks after the largest SST anomalies, which the authors argue can be viewed as the “atmospheric response.” The latter pattern is linearly independent of the former and is interpreted as the potential response of the atmospheric circulation to SST variability in the Gulf Stream extension.

Diagnosing Sources of U.S. Seasonal Forecast Skill

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (13) ◽  
pp. 3279-3293 ◽  
Author(s):  
X. Quan ◽  
M. Hoerling ◽  
J. Whitaker ◽  
G. Bates ◽  
T. Xu
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Diagnostic Methods ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Empirical Methods ◽  
Spatial Coverage ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract In this study the authors diagnose the sources for the contiguous U.S. seasonal forecast skill that are related to sea surface temperature (SST) variations using a combination of dynamical and empirical methods. The dynamical methods include ensemble simulations with four atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced by observed monthly global SSTs from 1950 to 1999, and ensemble AGCM experiments forced by idealized SST anomalies. The empirical methods involve a suite of reductions of the AGCM simulations. These include uni- and multivariate regression models that encapsulate the simultaneous and one-season lag linear connections between seasonal mean tropical SST anomalies and U.S. precipitation and surface air temperature. Nearly all of the AGCM skill in U.S. precipitation and surface air temperature, arising from global SST influences, can be explained by a single degree of freedom in the tropical SST field—that associated with the linear atmospheric signal of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The results support previous findings regarding the preeminence of ENSO as a U.S. skill source. The diagnostic methods used here exposed another skill source that appeared to be of non-ENSO origins. In late autumn, when the AGCM simulation skill of U.S. temperatures peaked in absolute value and in spatial coverage, the majority of that originated from SST variability in the subtropical west Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea. Hindcast experiments were performed for 1950–99 that revealed most of the simulation skill of the U.S. seasonal climate to be recoverable at one-season lag. The skill attributable to the AGCMs was shown to achieve parity with that attributable to empirical models derived purely from observational data. The diagnostics promote the interpretation that only limited advances in U.S. seasonal prediction skill should be expected from methods seeking to capitalize on sea surface predictors alone, and that advances that may occur in future decades could be readily masked by inherent multidecadal fluctuations in skill of coupled ocean–atmosphere systems.

Interannual Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures and Their Relation to Preceding Sea Level Pressures in the NCAR CCSM2

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 998-1012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruce T. Anderson ◽  
Eric Maloney
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Atmospheric Variability ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
Ocean Atmosphere ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract This paper describes aspects of tropical interannual ocean/atmosphere variability in the NCAR Community Climate System Model Version 2.0 (CCSM2). The CCSM2 tropical Pacific Ocean/atmosphere system exhibits much stronger biennial variability than is observed. However, a canonical correlation analysis technique decomposes the simulated boreal winter tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability into two modes, both of which are related to atmospheric variability during the preceding boreal winter. The first mode of ocean/atmosphere variability is related to the strong biennial oscillation in which La Niña–related sea level pressure (SLP) conditions precede El Niño–like SST conditions the following winter. The second mode of variability indicates that boreal winter tropical Pacific SST anomalies can also be initiated by SLP anomalies over the subtropical central and eastern North Pacific 12 months earlier. The evolution of both modes is characterized by recharge/discharge within the equatorial subsurface temperature field. For the first mode of variability, this recharge/discharge produces a lag between the basin-average equatorial Pacific isotherm depth anomalies and the isotherm–slope anomalies, equatorial SSTs, and wind stress fields. Significant anomalies are present up to a year before the boreal winter SLP variations and two years prior to the boreal winter ENSO-like events. For the second canonical factor pattern, the recharge/discharge mechanism is induced concurrent with the boreal winter SLP pattern approximately one year prior to the ENSO-like events, when isotherms initially deepen and change their slope across the basin. A rapid deepening of the isotherms in the eastern equatorial Pacific and a warming of the overlying SST anomalies then occurs during the subsequent 12 months.

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and sea surface temperature in the Bay of Biscay and adjacent regions

2011 ◽  
Vol 92 (2) ◽  
pp. 213-234 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Garcia-Soto ◽  
Robin D. Pingree
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Bay Of Biscay ◽  
The North ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Mode ◽  
Sst Anomalies

The sea surface temperature (SST) variability of the Bay of Biscay and adjacent regions (1854–2010) has been examined in relation to the evolution of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), a major climate mode. The AMO index explains ~25% of the interannual variability of the annual SST during the last 150 years, while different indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) explain ≤1% of the long-term record. NAO is a high frequency climate mode while AMO can modulate low frequency changes. Sixty per cent of the AMO variability is contained in periods longer than a decade. The basin-scale influence of NAO on SST over specific years (1995 to 1998) is presented and the SST anomalies explained. The period analysed represents an abrupt change in NAO and the North Atlantic circulation state as shown with altimetry and SST data. Additional atmospheric climate data over a shorter ~60 year period (1950–2008) show the influence on the Bay of Biscay SST of the East Atlantic (EA) pattern and the Scandinavia (SCA) pattern. These atmospheric teleconnections explain respectively ~25% and ~20% of the SST variability. The winter SST in the shelf-break/slope or poleward current region is analysed in relation to AMO. The poleward current shows a trend towards increasing SSTs during the last three decades as a result of the combined positive phase of AMO and global warming. The seasonality of this winter warm flow in the Iberian region is related to the autumn/winter seasonality of south-westerly (SW) winds. The SW winds are strengthened along the European shelf-break by the development of low pressure conditions in the region to the north of the Azores and therefore a negative NAO. AMO overall modulates multidecadal changes (~60% of the AMO variance). The long-term time-series of SST and SST anomalies in the Bay of Biscay show AMO-like cycles with maxima near 1870 and 1950 and minima near 1900 and 1980 indicating a period of 60–80 years during the last century and a half. Similar AMO-like variability is found in the Russell cycle of the Western English Channel (1924–1972). AMO relates at least to four mesozooplankton components of the Russell cycle: the abundance of the chaetognaths Parasagitta elegans and Parasagitta setosa (AMO −), the amount of the species Calanus helgolandicus (AMO −), the amount of the larvae of decapod crustaceans (AMO −) and the number of pilchard eggs (Sardine pilchardus; AMO +). In addition to AMO, the decadal to multidecadal (D2M) variability in the number of sunspots is analysed for the last 300 years. Several periodicities and a multi-secular linear increase are presented. There are secular minima near 1710, 1810, 1910 and 2010. The long term variability (>11 years) of the solar sunspot activity explains ~50% of the variance of the SST of the Bay of Biscay with periods longer than 11 years. AMO is finally compared with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the leading principal component of North Pacific SST anomalies.

Sea Surface Temperature Variability along the Path of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current

2006 ◽  
Vol 36 (7) ◽  
pp. 1317-1331 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ariane Verdy ◽  
John Marshall ◽  
Arnaud Czaja
Keyword(s):  
Antarctic Circumpolar Current ◽  
Surface Heat ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Heat Advection ◽  
Surface Heat Fluxes ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
Circumpolar Current ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract The spatial and temporal distributions of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) are investigated, using monthly data from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis for the period 1980–2004. Patterns of atmospheric forcing are identified in observations of sea level pressure and air–sea heat fluxes. It is found that a significant fraction of SST variability in the ACC can be understood as a linear response to surface forcing by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and remote forcing by ENSO. The physical mechanisms rely on the interplay between atmospheric variability and mean advection by the ACC. SAM and ENSO drive a low-level anomalous circulation pattern localized over the South Pacific Ocean, inducing surface heat fluxes and Ekman heat advection anomalies. A simple model of SST propagating in the ACC, forced with heat fluxes estimated from the reanalysis, suggests that surface heat fluxes and Ekman heat advection are equally important in driving the observed SST variability. Further diagnostics indicate that SST anomalies, generated mainly upstream of Drake Passage, are subsequently advected by the ACC and damped after a couple of years. It is suggested that SST variability along the path of the ACC is largely a passive response of the oceanic mixed layer to atmospheric forcing.

scholarly journals The Influence of Midlatitude Ocean–Atmosphere Coupling on the Low-Frequency Variability of a GCM. Part II: Interannual Variability Induced by Tropical SST Forcing*

1999 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ileana Bladé
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Mixed Layer ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
Low Frequency Variability ◽  
Ocean Atmosphere ◽  
Sst Forcing ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract This study extends the investigation of the impact of midlatitude ocean–atmosphere interactions on the atmospheric circulation to the interannual timescale by incorporating SST variability in the tropical Pacific representative of observed conditions. Two perpetual January GCM simulations are performed to examine the changes in the low-frequency atmospheric variability brought about by the inclusion of an interactive slab mixed layer in midlatitudes, in particular the changes in the extratropical response to ENSO-like tropical 90-day mean SST anomalies. It is found that midlatitude coupling alters the spatial organization of the low-frequency variability in qualitatively the same manner (but not to the same extent) as tropical SST variability—namely, by selectively enhancing (in terms of amplitude, persistence, and/or frequency of occurrence) certain of the preexisting (natural) dominant modes without significantly modifying them or generating new ones. While tropical SST forcing results in a notable amplification of the Pacific–North American (PNA) mode of the model, midlatitude SST anomalies appear to favor the regional zonal index circulations in the eastern and western Pacific (through decreased thermal damping at the surface). As a result, the PNA response to ENSO-like tropical SST forcing is not reinforced but slightly weakened by the presence of interactions with the underlying mixed layer. On the other hand, coupling increases the persistence of the overall extratropical signal and causes it to acquire distinct Western Pacific–like features, thus improving its resemblance to the observed ENSO teleconnection pattern. The leading mode of covariability between the hemispheric atmospheric circulation and North Pacific SST qualitatively reproduces its observational counterpart, with the atmosphere leading by about one month and surface atmospheric variations consistent with the notion that the atmosphere is driving the ocean. This agreement suggests that, even on interannual timescales, two-way air–sea interactions and ocean dynamics do not play an essential role in establishing the large-scale spatial structure of this observed dominant mode of ocean–atmosphere interaction. In addition, the simulated patterns of covariability in this sector possess the same kind of interannual–intraseasonal duality exhibited by the observations. In the North Atlantic the model essentially recovers the results from Part I of this study.

Temporal and spatial Sea Surface Temperature (SST) variability off the Southwest African coast

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernanda P. S. Nascimento ◽  
Martin Schmidt ◽  
Volker Mohrholz
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
Temporal And Spatial Variability ◽  
African Coast ◽  
Temporal And Spatial

<p>An understanding of Benguela Nino events is important for local economy, ecosystem and ocean dynamics. Aiming to see if Benguela Nino events can be seen in observations and reproduced by the models, an investigation of sea surface temperature (SST) temporal and spatial variability was done throughout the Southwest African coast.  Using SST obtained from satellite observations and from four different numerical models, a coastal strip of 1<sup>o</sup> width from 8S to 28S was calculated and averaged longitudinally. Even though models were warmer than the observations, variability seen on observations were reproduced by the models. Highly anomalous warm and cold periods that coincides with years of Benguela Niño and Niña were found both on observations and in the models, as well as SST weakening after 2000.</p>

scholarly journals Subtropics-Related Interannual Sea Surface Temperature Variability in the Central Equatorial Pacific

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (11) ◽  
pp. 2869-2884 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jin-Yi Yu ◽  
Hsun-Ying Kao ◽  
Tong Lee
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
Surface Heat Flux ◽  
Surface Heat ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
Central Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract Interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the central equatorial Pacific consists of a component related to eastern Pacific SST variations (called Type-1 SST variability) and a component not related to them (called Type-2 SST variability). Lead–lagged regression and ocean surface-layer temperature balance analyses were performed to contrast their control mechanisms. Type-1 variability is part of the canonical, which is characterized by SST anomalies extending from the South American coast to the central Pacific, is coupled with the Southern Oscillation, and is associated with basinwide subsurface ocean variations. This type of variability is dominated by a major 4–5-yr periodicity and a minor biennial (2–2.5 yr) periodicity. In contrast, Type-2 variability is dominated by a biennial periodicity, is associated with local air–sea interactions, and lacks a basinwide anomaly structure. In addition, Type-2 SST variability exhibits a strong connection to the subtropics of both hemispheres, particularly the Northern Hemisphere. Type-2 SST anomalies appear first in the northeastern subtropical Pacific and later spread toward the central equatorial Pacific, being generated in both regions by anomalous surface heat flux forcing associated with wind anomalies. The SST anomalies undergo rapid intensification in the central equatorial Pacific through ocean advection processes, and eventually decay as a result of surface heat flux damping and zonal advection. The southward spreading of trade wind anomalies within the northeastern subtropics-to-central tropics pathway of Type-2 variability is associated with intensity variations of the subtropical high. Type-2 variability is found to become stronger after 1990, associated with a concurrent increase in the subtropical variability. It is concluded that Type-2 interannual variability represents a subtropical-excited phenomenon that is different from the conventional ENSO Type-1 variability.

On the Stochastic Forcing of Modes of Interannual Southern Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Variability

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (15) ◽  
pp. 3074-3083 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher M. Aiken ◽  
Matthew H. England
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Surface Velocity ◽  
Stochastic Forcing ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
Sst Gradient ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract A simple linearized transport model of anomalous Southern Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) is studied to determine whether it can sustain anomalies of realistic amplitudes under a physically based stochastic forcing. As noted in previous studies, eigenmodes of this system with zonal wavenumbers 2 and 3 share key propagation characteristics with the SST anomalies associated with the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW). The system is solved on a grid that follows the path of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and is forced by a stochastic heat flux. The forcing is white in space and time and represents the advection of the mean SST gradient by high-frequency variations in the cross-ACC velocity, due to mesoscale eddy variability. The magnitude of the stochastic forcing is determined from a global eddy-permitting ocean model. Anomalous ocean surface velocity variability (8 cm s−1) coupled to a mean cross-ACC SST gradient of 0.8°C (°latitude)−1 sustains anomalous interannual SST variability at low wavenumbers and amplitudes of the order of 1°C, consistent with those associated with the ACW. In the long-term mean, variance is broadly spread among low wavenumbers, in contrast to the dominance of one or two zonal wavenumbers in the ACW observations. It is found, however, that the model produces single dominant wavenumbers over individual periods of decades, suggesting that the apparent unimodal nature of the ACW may be an artifact of the short observational record used to infer it. Alternatively, it is shown that a nonisotropic forcing may also result in a stronger preference for particular zonal wavenumbers. It is shown that if the atmosphere at mid to high southern latitudes has an equivalent barotropic response to heating, then the resulting sea level pressure anomalies reproduce the phase relationship of the observed ACW. These results are consistent with the notion that a simple stochastically forced advection of SST anomalies can explain SST variability associated with the ACW to leading order.

scholarly journals The Role of Ocean Dynamics in the Optimal Growth of Tropical SST Anomalies

2010 ◽  
Vol 40 (5) ◽  
pp. 983-1003 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laure Zanna ◽  
Patrick Heimbach ◽  
Andrew M. Moore ◽  
Eli Tziperman
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Initial Temperature ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Optimal Growth ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
Western Boundary ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
Tropical Sst Anomalies ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract The role of ocean dynamics in optimally exciting interannual variability of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies is investigated using an idealized-geometry ocean general circulation model. Initial temperature and salinity perturbations leading to an optimal growth of tropical SST anomalies, typically arising from the nonnormal dynamics, are evaluated. The structure of the optimal perturbations is characterized by relatively strong deep salinity anomalies near the western boundary generating a transient amplification of equatorial SST anomalies in less than four years. The associated growth mechanism is linked to the excitation of coastal and equatorial Kelvin waves near the western boundary following a rapid geostrophic adjustment owing to the optimal initial temperature and salinity perturbations. The results suggest that the nonnormality of the ocean dynamics may efficiently create large tropical SST variability on interannual time scales in the Atlantic without the participation of air–sea processes or the meridional overturning circulation. An optimal deep initial salinity perturbation of 0.1 ppt located near the western boundary can result in a tropical SST anomaly of approximately 0.45°C after nearly four years, assuming the dynamics are linear. Possible mechanisms for exciting such deep perturbations are discussed. While this study is motivated by tropical Atlantic SST variability, its relevance to other basins is not excluded. The optimal initial conditions leading to the tropical SST anomalies’ growth are obtained by solving a generalized eigenvalue problem. The evaluation of the optimals is achieved by using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) tangent linear and adjoint models as well the the Arnoldi Package (ARPACK) software for solving large-scale eigenvalue problems.

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