Analysis of Low-Frequency Precipitation Variability in CMIP5 Historical Simulations for Southwestern North America

Drier future conditions are projected for the arid southwest of North America, increasing the chances of the region experiencing severe and prolonged drought. To examine the mechanisms of decadal variability, 47 global climate model historical simulations performed for phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were assessed. On average, the CMIP5 models have higher climatological precipitation over the past century in southwestern North America than current instrumental or reanalysis products. The timing of the winter peak in climatological precipitation over California and Nevada is accurately represented. Models with resolutions coarser than 2° show a larger spread in the location and strength of the North American monsoon ridge and subsequent summer precipitation, in comparison with the higher-resolution models. Less than 20% of decadal variability in wintertime precipitation over California is associated with North Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies, a larger proportion than is associated with the tropical forcing but not sufficient for making decadal drought predictions. North American monsoon precipitation is strongly associated with local land temperatures on interannual-to-decadal time scales attributable to evaporative cooling and radiation changes driven by varying cloud cover. Soil moisture in Texas and Oklahoma in April is shown to be positively correlated with monsoon precipitation for the following summer, indicating a potential source of nonoceanic interseasonal persistence in southwestern North American hydroclimate. To make meaningful decadal predictions in the future, it is likely that forecasting will move away from sea surface temperature–driven anomaly patterns, and focus on land surface processes, which can allow persistence of precipitation anomalies via feedbacks.