scholarly journals A Reanalysis of the 1931–43 Atlantic Hurricane Database*

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (16) ◽  
pp. 6093-6118 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher W. Landsea ◽  
Andrew Hagen ◽  
William Bredemeyer ◽  
Cristina Carrasco ◽  
David A. Glenn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
The United States ◽  
Random Errors ◽  
Systems Methodology ◽  
Wind Field Model ◽  
Atlantic Hurricane ◽  
The North ◽  
Systematic Biases

Abstract A reanalysis of the Atlantic basin tropical storm and hurricane database (“best track”) for the period from 1931 to 1943 has been completed as part of the Atlantic Hurricane Database Reanalysis Project. This reassessment of the main archive for tropical cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico was necessary to correct systematic biases and random errors in the data as well as to search for previously unrecognized systems. Methodology for the reanalysis process for revising the track and intensity of tropical cyclone data is largely unchanged from that of the preceding couple of decades and has been detailed in a previous paper on the reanalysis. Accurate Environmental Forecasting’s numerical weather prediction-based wind field model was utilized here to help determine which states were impacted by various hurricane force winds in several U.S. landfalling major hurricanes during this era. The 1931–43 dataset now includes 23 new tropical cyclones, excludes five systems previously considered tropical storms, makes generally large alterations in the intensity estimates of most tropical cyclones (at various times both toward stronger and weaker intensities), and typically adjusts existing tracks with minor corrections. Average errors in intensity and track values are estimated for both open ocean conditions as well as for landfalling systems. Finally, highlights are given for changes to the more significant hurricanes to impact the United States, Central America, and the Caribbean for this time period.

scholarly journals A Reanalysis of the 1921–30 Atlantic Hurricane Database*

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 865-885 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher W. Landsea ◽  
Steve Feuer ◽  
Andrew Hagen ◽  
David A. Glenn ◽  
Jamese Sims ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
The United States ◽  
Tropical Storm ◽  
Random Errors ◽  
The North ◽  
Systematic Biases ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
Average Uncertainty

Abstract A reanalysis of the Atlantic basin tropical storm and hurricane database (“best track”) for the period from 1921 to 1930 has been completed. This reassessment of the main archive for tropical cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico was necessary to correct systematic biases and random errors in the data as well as to search for previously unrecognized systems. The methodology for the reanalysis process for revising the track and intensity of tropical cyclone data has been detailed in a previous paper on the reanalysis. The 1921–30 dataset now includes several new tropical cyclones, excludes one system previously considered a tropical storm, makes generally large alterations in the intensity estimates of most tropical cyclones (both toward stronger and weaker intensities), and typically adjusts existing tracks with minor corrections. Average uncertainty in intensity and track values is estimated for both open-ocean conditions as well as landfalling systems. Highlights are given for changes to the more significant hurricanes to impact the United States, Central America, and the Caribbean for this decade.

A Reanalysis of the 1944–53 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons—The First Decade of Aircraft Reconnaissance*

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (13) ◽  
pp. 4441-4460 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew B. Hagen ◽  
Donna Strahan-Sakoskie ◽  
Christopher Luckett
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Tropical Storms ◽  
Random Errors ◽  
Atlantic Hurricane ◽  
The North ◽  
Ongoing Effort ◽  
Historical Archive ◽  
Systematic Biases

Abstract The main historical archive of all tropical storms, subtropical storms, and hurricanes in the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico from 1851 to the present is known as the Atlantic hurricane database (HURDAT), which is the fundamental database for meteorological, engineering, and financial studies of these cyclones. Previous work has demonstrated that a reanalysis of HURDAT is necessary because it contains many random errors and systematic biases. The Atlantic Hurricane Reanalysis Project is an ongoing effort to correct the errors in HURDAT and to make HURDAT as accurate a database as possible with utilization of all available data. For this study, HURDAT is reanalyzed for the period 1944–53, the first decade of the “aircraft reconnaissance era.” The track and intensity of each existing tropical cyclone in HURDAT are reassessed, and previously unrecognized tropical cyclones are discovered, analyzed, and recommended to the HURDAT Best Track Change Committee for inclusion into HURDAT (existing tropical cyclones may be removed from the database as well if analyses indicate evidence that no tropical storm existed). Changes to the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, accumulated cyclone energy, and U.S. landfalling hurricanes are recommended for most years of the decade. Estimates of uncertainty in the reanalyzed database for the decade are also provided.

scholarly journals A Reanalysis of the 1911–20 Atlantic Hurricane Database

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (10) ◽  
pp. 2138-2168 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher W. Landsea ◽  
David A. Glenn ◽  
William Bredemeyer ◽  
Michael Chenoweth ◽  
Ryan Ellis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
The United States ◽  
Tropical Storm ◽  
Random Errors ◽  
The North ◽  
Systematic Biases ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract A reanalysis of the Atlantic basin tropical storm and hurricane database (“best track”) for the period of 1911–20 has been completed. This reassessment of the main archive for tropical cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico was necessary to correct systematic biases and random errors in the data as well as to search for previously unrecognized systems. A methodology for the reanalysis process for revising the track and intensity of tropical cyclone data is provided in detail. The dataset now includes several new tropical cyclones, excludes one system previously considered a tropical storm, makes generally large alterations in the intensity estimates of most tropical cyclones (both toward stronger and weaker intensities), and typically adjusts existing tracks with minor corrections. Average errors in intensity and track values are estimated for both open ocean conditions as well as for landfalling systems. Finally, highlights are given for changes to the more significant hurricanes to impact the United States, Central America, and the Caribbean for this decade.

scholarly journals Climatology and Interannual Variability of North Atlantic Hurricane Tracks

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (24) ◽  
pp. 5370-5381 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lian Xie ◽  
Tingzhuang Yan ◽  
Leonard J. Pietrafesa ◽  
John M. Morrison ◽  
Thomas Karl
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
The United States ◽  
Track Density ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Atlantic Hurricane ◽  
The North ◽  
Hurricane Track ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Hurricane Tracks

Abstract The spatial and temporal variability of North Atlantic hurricane tracks and its possible association with the annual hurricane landfall frequency along the U.S. East Coast are studied using principal component analysis (PCA) of hurricane track density function (HTDF). The results show that, in addition to the well-documented effects of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and vertical wind shear (VWS), North Atlantic HTDF is strongly modulated by the dipole mode (DM) of Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) as well as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO). Specifically, it was found that Atlantic SST DM is the only index that is associated with all top three empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of the Atlantic HTDF. ENSO and tropical Atlantic VWS are significantly correlated with the first and the third EOF of the HTDF over the North Atlantic Ocean. The second EOF of North Atlantic HTDF, which represents the “zonal gradient” of North Atlantic hurricane track density, showed no significant correlation with ENSO or with tropical Atlantic VWS. Instead, it is associated with the Atlantic SST DM, and extratropical processes including NAO and AO. Since for a given hurricane season, the preferred hurricane track pattern, together with the overall basinwide hurricane activity, collectively determines the hurricane landfall frequency, the results provide a foundation for the construction of a statistical model that projects the annual number of hurricanes striking the eastern seaboard of the United States.

scholarly journals Hurricane Katrina (2005). Part II: Evolution and Hemispheric Impacts of a Diabatically Generated Warm Pool

2007 ◽  
Vol 135 (12) ◽  
pp. 3927-3949 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ron McTaggart-Cowan ◽  
Lance F. Bosart ◽  
John R. Gyakum ◽  
Eyad H. Atallah
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Hurricane Katrina ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Flow Analysis ◽  
Warm Pool ◽  
The United States ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Upper Level

Abstract The landfall of Hurricane Katrina (2005) near New Orleans, Louisiana, on 29 August 2005 will be remembered as one of the worst natural disasters in the history of the United States. By comparison, the extratropical transition (ET) of the system as it accelerates poleward over the following days is innocuous and the system weakens until its eventual demise off the coast of Greenland. The extent of Katrina’s perturbation of the midlatitude flow would appear to be limited given the lack of reintensification or downstream development during ET. However, the slow progression of a strong upper-tropospheric warm pool across the North Atlantic Ocean in the week following Katrina’s landfall prompts the question of whether even a nonreintensifying ET event can lead to significant modification of the midlatitude flow. Analysis of Hurricane Katrina’s outflow layer after landfall suggests that it does not itself make up the long-lived midlatitude warm pool. However, the interaction between Katrina’s anticyclonic outflow and an approaching baroclinic trough is shown to establish an anomalous southwesterly conduit or “freeway” that injects a preexisting tropospheric warm pool over the southwestern United States into the midlatitudes. This warm pool reduces predictability in medium-range forecasts over the North Atlantic and Europe while simultaneously aiding in the development of Hurricanes Maria and Nate. The origin of the warm pool is shown to be the combination of anticyclonic upper-level features generated by eastern Pacific Hurricane Hilary and the south Asian anticyclone (SAA). The hemispheric nature of the connections involved with the development of the warm pool and its injection into the extratropics has an impact on forecasting, since the predictability issue associated with ET in this case involves far more than the potential reintensification of the transitioning system itself.

scholarly journals A New Compilation of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones, 1851–98*

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (23) ◽  
pp. 8674-8685 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Chenoweth
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
The United States ◽  
Caribbean Region ◽  
News Reports ◽  
The North ◽  
Hurricane Wind ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
First Time

Abstract A comprehensive new compilation of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity for the years 1851–98 is presented and compared with the second-generation North Atlantic hurricane database (HURDAT2) for the same years. This new analysis is based on the retrieval of 9072 newspaper marine shipping news reports, 1260 original logbook records, 271 Maury abstract logs, 147 U.S. marine meteorological journals, and 34 Met Office (UKMO) logbooks. Records from throughout North America and the Caribbean region were used along with other primary and secondary references holding unique land and marine data. For the first time, North Atlantic daily weather maps for 1864/65, 1873, and 1881–98 were used in historical tropical cyclone research. Results for the years 1851–98 include the omission of 62 of the 361 HURDAT2 storms, and the further reduction resulting from the merging of storms to a total of 288 unique HURDAT2 tropical cyclones. The new compilation gave a total of 497 tropical cyclones in the 48-yr record, or an average of 10.4 storms per year compared to 6.0 per year in HURDAT2 less the author’s omissions. Of this total, 209 storms are completely new. A total of 90 hurricanes made landfall in the United States during this time. Seven new U.S. landfalling hurricanes are present in the new dataset but not in HURDAT2. Eight U.S. landfalling hurricanes in HURDAT2 are now considered to have only tropical storm impact or were actually extratropical at landfall. Across the North Atlantic, the number of category-4 hurricanes based on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale, compared with HURDAT2, increased from 11 to 25, 6 of which made U.S. landfall at category-4 level.

An Operational System for Predicting Hurricane-Generated Wind Waves in the North Atlantic Ocean*

2005 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 652-671 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yung Y. Chao ◽  
Jose-Henrique G. M. Alves ◽  
Hendrik L. Tolman
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Wind Waves ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
Atlantic Hurricane ◽  
The North ◽  
Hurricane Season ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Environmental Prediction

Abstract A new wind–wave prediction model, referred to as the North Atlantic hurricane (NAH) wave model, has been developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) to produce forecasts of hurricane-generated waves during the Atlantic hurricane season. A detailed description of this model and a comparison of its performance against the operational western North Atlantic (WNA) wave model during Hurricanes Isidore and Lili, in 2002, are presented. The NAH and WNA models are identical in their physics and numerics. The NAH model uses a wind field obtained by blending data from NCEP’s operational Global Forecast System (GFS) with those from a higher-resolution hurricane prediction model, whereas the WNA wave model uses winds provided exclusively by the GFS. Relative biases of the order of 10% in the prediction of maximum wave heights up to 48 h in advance, indicate that the use of higher-resolution winds in the NAH model provides a successful framework for predicting extreme sea states generated by a hurricane. Consequently, the NAH model has been made operational at NCEP for use during the Atlantic hurricane season.

Handling a Vessel in Ice

1959 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 141-152
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United States Navy ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
The United States ◽  
Kind Permission ◽  
American Experience ◽  
The North ◽  
False Sense ◽  
Polar Research Institute ◽  
Ice Field

This paper, prepared by the Hydrographic Office of the United States Navy Department, and based on recent American experience, was originally printed on the back of the April 1958 Pilot Chart of the North Atlantic Ocean. It is reproduced here by kind permission of the Hydrographer of the United States Navy. A less extensive treatment of the subject, to which readers may like to refer, was given by L. R. R. Foster in the Journal in 1952 (‘Some Recent Work on Polar Navigation’, 5, 12). Figs. 1–12 are reproduced from the Polar Record (8, 1956–7) by kind permission of the Scott Polar Research Institute, Cambridge.The first requisite of the embryonic ice pilot is to develop a healthy respect for the tremendous power of the ice. He must never permit the peaceful appearance of an ice-field to lull him into a false sense of security. On the other hand, he need not fear the ice, since a great deal of progress through ice can be made by a vessel in capable hands.

scholarly journals A global historical data set of tropical cyclone exposure (TCE-DAT)

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tobias Geiger ◽  
Katja Frieler ◽  
David N. Bresch
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
The United States ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Damage Functions ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Wind Field Model ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
The Difference

Abstract. Tropical cyclones pose a major risk to societies worldwide with about 22 million directly-affected people and damages of $29 billion on average per year over the last 20 years. While data on observed cyclones tracks (location of the center) and wind speeds is publically available these data sets do not contain information about the spatial extent of the storm and people or assets exposed. Here, we apply a simplified wind field model to estimate the areas exposed to wind speeds above 34, 64, and 96 knots. Based on available spatially-explicit data on population densities and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) we estimate 1) the number of people and 2) the sum of assets exposed to wind speeds above these thresholds accounting for temporal changes in historical distribution of population and assets (TCE-hist) and assuming fixed 2015 patterns (TCE-2015). The associated country-event level exposure data (TCE-DAT) covers the period 1950 to 2015 and is freely available at http://doi.org/10.5880/pik.2017.005. It is considered key information to 1) assess the contribution of climatological versus socio-economic drivers of changes in exposure to tropical cyclones, 2) estimate changes in vulnerability from the difference in exposure and reported damages and calibrate associated damage functions, and 3) build improved exposure-based predictors to estimate higher-level societal impacts such as long-term effects on GDP, employment, or migration. We validate the adequateness of our methodology by comparing our exposure estimate to estimated exposure obtained from reported wind fields available since 1988 for the United States. We expect that the free availability of the underlying model and TCE-DAT will make research on tropical cyclone risks more accessible to non-experts and stakeholders.

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