scholarly journals A global historical data set of tropical cyclone exposure (TCE-DAT)

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tobias Geiger ◽  
Katja Frieler ◽  
David N. Bresch
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
The United States ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Damage Functions ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Wind Field Model ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
The Difference

Abstract. Tropical cyclones pose a major risk to societies worldwide with about 22 million directly-affected people and damages of $29 billion on average per year over the last 20 years. While data on observed cyclones tracks (location of the center) and wind speeds is publically available these data sets do not contain information about the spatial extent of the storm and people or assets exposed. Here, we apply a simplified wind field model to estimate the areas exposed to wind speeds above 34, 64, and 96 knots. Based on available spatially-explicit data on population densities and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) we estimate 1) the number of people and 2) the sum of assets exposed to wind speeds above these thresholds accounting for temporal changes in historical distribution of population and assets (TCE-hist) and assuming fixed 2015 patterns (TCE-2015). The associated country-event level exposure data (TCE-DAT) covers the period 1950 to 2015 and is freely available at http://doi.org/10.5880/pik.2017.005. It is considered key information to 1) assess the contribution of climatological versus socio-economic drivers of changes in exposure to tropical cyclones, 2) estimate changes in vulnerability from the difference in exposure and reported damages and calibrate associated damage functions, and 3) build improved exposure-based predictors to estimate higher-level societal impacts such as long-term effects on GDP, employment, or migration. We validate the adequateness of our methodology by comparing our exposure estimate to estimated exposure obtained from reported wind fields available since 1988 for the United States. We expect that the free availability of the underlying model and TCE-DAT will make research on tropical cyclone risks more accessible to non-experts and stakeholders.

scholarly journals A global historical data set of tropical cyclone exposure (TCE-DAT)

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 185-194 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tobias Geiger ◽  
Katja Frieler ◽  
David N. Bresch
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
The United States ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Damage Functions ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Wind Field Model ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Socioeconomic Drivers

Abstract. Tropical cyclones pose a major risk to societies worldwide, with about 22 million directly affected people and damages of USD 29 billion on average per year over the last 20 years. While data on observed cyclones tracks (location of the center) and wind speeds are publicly available, these data sets do not contain information about the spatial extent of the storm and people or assets exposed. Here, we apply a simplified wind field model to estimate the areas exposed to wind speeds above 34, 64, and 96 knots (kn). Based on available spatially explicit data on population densities and gross domestic product (GDP) we estimate (1) the number of people and (2) the sum of assets exposed to wind speeds above these thresholds accounting for temporal changes in historical distribution of population and assets (TCE-hist) and assuming fixed 2015 patterns (TCE-2015). The associated spatially explicit and aggregated country-event-level exposure data (TCE-DAT) cover the period 1950 to 2015 and are freely available at https://doi.org/10.5880/pik.2017.011 (Geiger at al., 2017c). It is considered key information to (1) assess the contribution of climatological versus socioeconomic drivers of changes in exposure to tropical cyclones, (2) estimate changes in vulnerability from the difference in exposure and reported damages and calibrate associated damage functions, and (3) build improved exposure-based predictors to estimate higher-level societal impacts such as long-term effects on GDP, employment, or migration. We validate the adequateness of our methodology by comparing our exposure estimate to estimated exposure obtained from reported wind fields available since 1988 for the United States. We expect that the free availability of the underlying model and TCE-DAT will make research on tropical cyclone risks more accessible to non-experts and stakeholders.

scholarly journals Generating reliable estimates of tropical cyclone induced coastal hazards along the Bay of Bengal for current and future climates using synthetic tracks

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Willem Bart Leijnse ◽  
Alessio Giardino ◽  
Kees Nederhoff ◽  
Sofia Caires
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Bay Of Bengal ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Frequency ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Wave Heights ◽  
Cyclone Frequency

Abstract. Deriving reliable estimates of design water levels and wave conditions resulting from tropical cyclones is a challenging problem of high relevance for, among others, coastal and offshore engineering projects and risk assessment studies. Tropical cyclone geometry and wind speeds have been recorded for the past few decades only, therefore resulting in poorly reliable estimates of the extremes, especially at regions characterized by a low number of past tropical cyclone events. In this paper, this challenge is overcome by using synthetic tropical cyclone tracks and wind fields generated by the open source tool TCWiSE (Tropical Cyclone Wind Statistical Estimation), to create thousands of realizations representative for 1,000 years of tropical cyclone activity for the Bay of Bengal. Each of these realizations is used to force coupled storm surge and wave simulations by means of the processed-based Delft3D Flexible Mesh Suite. It is shown that the use of synthetic tracks provides reliable estimates of the statistics of the first-order hazard (i.e. wind speed) compared to the statistics derived for historical tropical cyclones. Based on estimated wind fields, second-order hazards (i.e. storm surge and waves) are computed. The estimates of the extreme values derived for wind speed, wave height and storm surge are shown to converge within the 1,000 years of simulated cyclone tracks. Comparing second-order hazard estimates based on historical and synthetic tracks show that, for this case study, the use of historical tracks (a deterministic approach) leads to an underestimation of the mean computed storm surge up to −30 %. Differences between the use of synthetic versus historical tracks are characterized by a large spatial variability along the Bay of Bengal, where regions with a lower probability of occurrence of tropical cyclones show the largest difference in predicted storm surge and wave heights. In addition, the use of historical tracks leads to much larger uncertainty bands in the estimation of both storm surges and wave heights, with confidence intervals being +80 % larger compared to those estimated by using synthetic tracks (probabilistic approach). Based on the same tropical cyclone realizations, the effect that changes in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity, possibly resulting from climate change, may have on modelled storm surge and wave heights were computed. An increase in tropical cyclone frequency of +25.6 % and wind intensity of +1.6 %, based on literature values, could result in an increase of storm surge and wave heights of +11 % and +9 % respectively. This suggest that climate change could increase tropical cyclone induced coastal hazards more than just the actual increase in maximum wind speeds.

scholarly journals Perceptions of Hurricane-Track Forecasts in the United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason Senkbeil ◽  
Jacob Reed ◽  
Jennifer Collins ◽  
Kimberly Brothers ◽  
Michelle Saunders ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Track Forecast ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Home Location ◽  
Hurricane Track ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Storm Characteristics ◽  
Hurricane Tracks ◽  
Hurricane Irma

AbstractHurricanes Isaac (2012), Harvey (2017), and Irma (2017) were storms with different geophysical characteristics and track forecast consistencies. Despite the differences, common themes emerged from the perception of track forecasts from evacuees for each storm. Surveys with a mixture of closed and open-ended responses were conducted during the evacuations of each storm while the storm characteristics and decision-making were fresh in the minds of evacuees. Track perception accuracy for each evacuee was quantified by taking the difference between three metrics: perceived track and official track (PT − OT), perceived track and forecast track (PT − FT), and home location and perceived track (HL − PT). Evacuees from Hurricanes Isaac and Harvey displayed a tendency to perceive hurricane tracks as being closer to their home locations than what was forecast to occur and what actually occurred. The large sample collected for Hurricane Irma provided a chance to statistically verify some of the hypotheses generated from Isaac and Harvey. Results from Hurricane Irma confirmed that evacuees expected a storm to be closer to their home locations after controlling for regional influences. Furthermore, participants with greater previous hurricane experience perceived a track as being closer to their home locations, and participants residing in zip codes corresponding with nonmandatory evacuation zones also perceived tracks as being closer to their home locations. These findings suggest that most evacuees from hurricanes in the United States appear to perceive storms as being closer to their home locations than they are and overestimate wind speeds at their homes, thus overestimating the true danger from landfalling hurricanes in many storms.

scholarly journals A New Compilation of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones, 1851–98*

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (23) ◽  
pp. 8674-8685 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Chenoweth
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
The United States ◽  
Caribbean Region ◽  
News Reports ◽  
The North ◽  
Hurricane Wind ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
First Time

Abstract A comprehensive new compilation of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity for the years 1851–98 is presented and compared with the second-generation North Atlantic hurricane database (HURDAT2) for the same years. This new analysis is based on the retrieval of 9072 newspaper marine shipping news reports, 1260 original logbook records, 271 Maury abstract logs, 147 U.S. marine meteorological journals, and 34 Met Office (UKMO) logbooks. Records from throughout North America and the Caribbean region were used along with other primary and secondary references holding unique land and marine data. For the first time, North Atlantic daily weather maps for 1864/65, 1873, and 1881–98 were used in historical tropical cyclone research. Results for the years 1851–98 include the omission of 62 of the 361 HURDAT2 storms, and the further reduction resulting from the merging of storms to a total of 288 unique HURDAT2 tropical cyclones. The new compilation gave a total of 497 tropical cyclones in the 48-yr record, or an average of 10.4 storms per year compared to 6.0 per year in HURDAT2 less the author’s omissions. Of this total, 209 storms are completely new. A total of 90 hurricanes made landfall in the United States during this time. Seven new U.S. landfalling hurricanes are present in the new dataset but not in HURDAT2. Eight U.S. landfalling hurricanes in HURDAT2 are now considered to have only tropical storm impact or were actually extratropical at landfall. Across the North Atlantic, the number of category-4 hurricanes based on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale, compared with HURDAT2, increased from 11 to 25, 6 of which made U.S. landfall at category-4 level.

scholarly journals Application of Airborne Passive Microwave Observations for Monitoring Inland Flooding Caused by Tropical Cyclones

2009 ◽  
Vol 26 (10) ◽  
pp. 2051-2070
Author(s):  
Courtney D. Buckley ◽  
Robbie E. Hood ◽  
Frank J. LaFontaine
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Field Experiments ◽  
Vegetation Indices ◽  
The United States ◽  
Unmanned Aircraft ◽  
Passive Microwave ◽  
Inland Flooding

Abstract Inland flooding from tropical cyclones is a significant factor in storm-related deaths in the United States and other countries, with the majority of tropical cyclone fatalities recorded in the United States resulting from freshwater flooding. Information collected during National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) tropical cyclone field experiments suggests that surface water and flooding can be detected and therefore monitored at a greater spatial resolution by using passive microwave airborne radiometers than by using satellite sensors. The 10.7-GHz frequency of the NASA Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR) has demonstrated high-resolution detection of anomalous surface water and flooding in numerous situations. In this study, an analysis of three cases is conducted utilizing satellite and airborne radiometer data. Data from the 1998 Third Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-3) are utilized to detect surface water during the landfalling Hurricane Georges in both the Dominican Republic and Louisiana. Another case studied was the landfalling Tropical Storm Gert in eastern Mexico during the Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP) experiment in 2005. AMPR data are compared to topographic data and vegetation indices to evaluate the significance of the surface water signature visible in the 10.7-GHz information. The results illustrate the AMPR’s utility in monitoring surface water that current satellite-based passive microwave radiometers are unable to monitor because of their coarser resolutions. This suggests the benefit of a radiometer with observing frequencies less than 11 GHz deployed on a manned aircraft or unmanned aircraft system to provide early detection in real time of expanding surface water or flooding conditions.

scholarly journals Tropical Cyclone–Relative Environmental Helicity and the Pathways to Intensification in Shear

2016 ◽  
Vol 73 (2) ◽  
pp. 869-890 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew J. Onderlinde ◽  
David S. Nolan
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Latent Heat ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Equivalent Potential ◽  
Vertical Variations ◽  
The Difference

Abstract Tropical cyclone–relative environmental helicity (TCREH) is a measure of how the wind vector changes direction with height, and it has been shown to modulate the rate at which tropical cyclones (TCs) develop both in idealized simulations and in reanalysis data. The channels through which this modulation occurs remain less clear. This study aims to identify the mechanisms that lead to the observed variations in intensification rate. Results suggest that the difference in intensification rate between TCs embedded in positive versus negative TCREH primarily results from the position of convection and associated latent heat fluxes relative to the wind shear vector. When TCREH is positive, convection is more readily advected upshear and air parcels that experience larger fluxes are more frequently ingested into the TC core. Trajectories computed from high-resolution simulations demonstrate the recovery of equivalent potential temperature downwind of convection, latent heat flux near the TC core, and parcel routes through updrafts in convection. Differences in trajectory characteristics between TCs embedded in positive versus negative TCREH are presented. Contoured frequency-by-altitude diagrams (CFADs) show that convection is distributed differently around TCs embedded in environments characterized by positive versus negative TCREH. They also show that the nature of the most intense convection differs only slightly between cases of positive and negative TCREH. The results of this study emphasize the fact that significant variability in TC-intensification rate results from vertical variations in the environmental wind direction, even when the 850–200-hPa wind shear vector remains unchanged.

Numerical Modeling of Tropical Cyclone Generated Waves; Case studies of Irma, Maria and Dorian

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gozde Guney Dogan ◽  
Pamela Probst ◽  
Bora Yalciner ◽  
Alessandro Annunziato ◽  
Narcisse Zahibo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Modeling ◽  
Numerical Model ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Caribbean Islands ◽  
The Caribbean

<p>Tropical cyclones can be considered one type of extreme event, with their destructive winds, torrential rainfall and storm surge. Every year these natural phenomena affect millions of people around the world, leaving a trail of destruction in several countries, especially along the coastal areas. Only in 2017, two devastating major hurricanes (Irma and Maria) moved across the Caribbean and south-eastern USA, causing extensive damage and deaths. Irma formed in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean on 30 August 2017 and moved towards the Caribbean islands during the following week, significantly strengthening, becoming a Category 5 Hurricane. It caused wide-ranging impacts such as significant storm surge (up to 3m according to US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA report) to several islands in the Caribbean and Florida. On the second half of September, 2017, another strong Category 5 Hurricane named Maria formed over the Atlantic and moved west towards the Caribbean Sea. Maria also caused several impacts and severe damage in Caribbean Islands, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands due to high speed winds, rainfall, flooding and storm surge with a maximum runup of 3.7 m (US NOAA) on the southern tip of Dominica Island. The most recent devastating event for the Atlantic is Hurricane Dorian. It formed on August 24, 2019 over the Atlantic Ocean and it moved towards the Caribbean islands, as getting stronger as moving, becoming a Category 5 before reaching the Bahamas, where it left a trail of destruction after its passage. The major effect of Dorian was on north-western Bahamas with very strong winds, heavy rainfall and a large storm surge.</p><p>In this context, a rapid and reliable modeling of storm surge generated by such kind of events is essential for many purposes such as early accurate assessment of the situation, forecasting, estimation of potential impact in coastal areas, and operational issues like emergency management.</p><p>A numerical model, NAMI DANCE GPU T-SS (Tsunami-Storm Surge) is developed building up on tsunami numerical model NAMI DANCE GPU version to solve nonlinear shallow water equations, using the pressure and wind fields as inputs to compute spatial and temporal distribution of water level throughout the study domain and respective inundation related to tropical cyclones, based on the equations used in the HyFlux2 Code developed by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission. The code provides a rapid calculation since it is structured for Graphical Processing Unit (GPU) using CUDA API.</p><p>NAMI DANCE GPU T-SS has been applied to many cases as regular shaped basins under circular static and dynamic pressure fields separately and also different wind fields for validation together with combinations of pressure and wind fields. This study has been conducted to investigate the potential of numerical modeling of tropical cyclone generated storm surge based on recent events Irma, Maria and Dorian. The results are presented and discussed based on comparison with the measurements and observations. The study shows promise for developing a cyclone modeling capability based on available measurement and observational data.</p>

scholarly journals An Examination of Wind Decay, Sustained Wind Speed Forecasts, and Gust Factors for Recent Tropical Cyclones in the Mid-Atlantic Region of the United States

2015 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 153-176 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bryce Tyner ◽  
Anantha Aiyyer ◽  
Jonathan Blaes ◽  
Donald Reid Hawkins
Keyword(s):  
Surface Roughness ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Software Tool ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
The United States ◽  
Atlantic Region ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Gust Factors

Abstract In this study, several analyses were conducted that were aimed at improving sustained wind speed and gust forecasts for tropical cyclones (TCs) affecting coastal regions. An objective wind speed forecast analysis of recent TCs affecting the mid-Atlantic region was first conducted to set a benchmark for improvement. Forecasts from the National Digital Forecast Database were compared to observations and surface wind analyses in the region. The analysis suggests a general overprediction of sustained wind speeds, especially for areas affected by the strongest winds. Currently, National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices use a software tool known as the Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory (TCM) wind tool (TCMWindTool) to develop their wind forecast grids. The tool assumes linear decay in the sustained wind speeds when interpolating the National Hurricane Center 12–24-hourly TCM product to hourly grids. An analysis of postlandfall wind decay for recent TCs was conducted to evaluate this assumption. Results indicate that large errors in the forecasted wind speeds can emerge, especially for stronger storms. Finally, an analysis of gust factors for recent TCs affecting the region was conducted. Gust factors associated with weak sustained wind speeds are shown to be highly variable but average around 1.5. The gust factors decrease to values around 1.2 for wind speeds above 40 knots (kt; 1 kt = 0.51 m s−1) and are in general insensitive to the wind direction, suggesting local rather than upstream surface roughness largely dictates the gust factor at a given location. Forecasters are encouraged to increase land reduction factors used in the TCMWindTool and to modify gust factors to account for factors including the sustained wind speed and local surface roughness.

scholarly journals A Reanalysis of the 1931–43 Atlantic Hurricane Database*

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (16) ◽  
pp. 6093-6118 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher W. Landsea ◽  
Andrew Hagen ◽  
William Bredemeyer ◽  
Cristina Carrasco ◽  
David A. Glenn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
The United States ◽  
Random Errors ◽  
Systems Methodology ◽  
Wind Field Model ◽  
Atlantic Hurricane ◽  
The North ◽  
Systematic Biases

Abstract A reanalysis of the Atlantic basin tropical storm and hurricane database (“best track”) for the period from 1931 to 1943 has been completed as part of the Atlantic Hurricane Database Reanalysis Project. This reassessment of the main archive for tropical cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico was necessary to correct systematic biases and random errors in the data as well as to search for previously unrecognized systems. Methodology for the reanalysis process for revising the track and intensity of tropical cyclone data is largely unchanged from that of the preceding couple of decades and has been detailed in a previous paper on the reanalysis. Accurate Environmental Forecasting’s numerical weather prediction-based wind field model was utilized here to help determine which states were impacted by various hurricane force winds in several U.S. landfalling major hurricanes during this era. The 1931–43 dataset now includes 23 new tropical cyclones, excludes five systems previously considered tropical storms, makes generally large alterations in the intensity estimates of most tropical cyclones (at various times both toward stronger and weaker intensities), and typically adjusts existing tracks with minor corrections. Average errors in intensity and track values are estimated for both open ocean conditions as well as for landfalling systems. Finally, highlights are given for changes to the more significant hurricanes to impact the United States, Central America, and the Caribbean for this time period.

scholarly journals A Research Framework to Integrate Cross-Ecosystem Responses to Tropical Cyclones

BioScience ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 70 (6) ◽  
pp. 477-489 ◽  
Author(s):  
J Aaron Hogan ◽  
Rusty A Feagin ◽  
Gregory Starr ◽  
Michael Ross ◽  
Teng-Chiu Lin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Primary Productivity ◽  
Recovery Time ◽  
The United States ◽  
Ecosystem Response ◽  
Ecosystem Responses ◽  
Research Framework ◽  
Antecedent Conditions

Abstract Tropical cyclones play an increasingly important role in shaping ecosystems. Understanding and generalizing their responses is challenging because of meteorological variability among storms and its interaction with ecosystems. We present a research framework designed to compare tropical cyclone effects within and across ecosystems that: a) uses a disaggregating approach that measures the responses of individual ecosystem components, b) links the response of ecosystem components at fine temporal scales to meteorology and antecedent conditions, and c) examines responses of ecosystem using a resistance–resilience perspective by quantifying the magnitude of change and recovery time. We demonstrate the utility of the framework using three examples of ecosystem response: gross primary productivity, stream biogeochemical export, and organismal abundances. Finally, we present the case for a network of sentinel sites with consistent monitoring to measure and compare ecosystem responses to cyclones across the United States, which could help improve coastal ecosystem resilience.

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